Getting It Together

They just can't get it together. Syrian society, reflecting that of most of the Middle East, is irremediably fractured. Apart from the tribal enmities, the clan suspicions, the sectarian hatred, the ideological splits, and violent Islamism, there seems to be a profound inability to think in terms of nationhood. As in everyone pulling together to produce a common good that will be useful to all, and which will improve the quality of life for everyone involved.

A shared society and a shared investment in the future. A national aspiration to succeed. To be responsible to and with one another. To set aside differences in the greater interests of unity and prosperity. All people everywhere are concerned for the welfare of their offspring. What is it about the Arab/Muslim mind that they cannot conceive of living together peacefully, as a society of multiple interests and shared values? If only for future generations to experience stability.

The main Syrian opposition, the Syrian National Coalition, took its seat at the Arab League this week, replacing the ousted regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Among them there is stark division. The former president of the Coalition, Moaz al-Khatib, led a delegation of Coalition political executives. It was he who addressed the Arab League, not Ghassan Hitto, recently elected the planned interim Syrian government's prime minister.

Syrian National Coalition leader Moaz al-Khatib is watched by members of the media at the opening of the Arab League summit in Doha, Qatar. Photograph: EPA

 

Two prominent opposition figures, George Sabra and Suheir Atassi were also present to round out the delegation representing the new Syrian government-in-waiting. A government-in-waiting that is assailed with complete disarray. The election of Mr. Hitto has been vehemently denied as representing the wishes of all the Coalition units who claim that he does not represent their interests and they will not recognize him officially.

How's that for unity in a purported coalition of disparate interests with a common goal who came together ostensibly for the purpose of presenting a united front of opposition against a government determined to remain in power? What obtains for the political arena is also representative of the military presence within the opposition dominating the conversation in Syria.

The rebel Free Syrian Army's leader, Colonel Riad al-Asaad, who laid claim to represent the military option to defeat the regime's well-polished military machine has just been the subject of an assassination attempt. And he wasn't the first one; another FSA commander, according to local journalist Ous al-Arabi, had experienced a similar attempt at assassination last month in eastern Syria.

On this second and more recent occasion, Colonel Riad al-Asaad, formerly a General with the Syrian military who defected and became head of the FSA, had leg amputation surgery in hospital following the detonation of an explosive near his car during a trip to rebel-held Deir al-Zour province. Though it is as yet unknown who was responsible for the attack, local activists feel it was likely a rival rebel group.

The Free Syria Army is an umbrella group that operates under the fiction that it represents all rebel fighters under a unified command. Reminiscent of the various tribal militias operating independently and without needed co-operation during the insurrection that took place in Libya. The new Libyan government has never succeeded in de-militarizing the militias, in convincing them to surrender their arms, to join with the national military.

"We are the future army of the new Syria", Colonel al-Asaad had triumphantly announced in October 2011 at the time of his defection from the regime, when he helped to publicize the presence of an armed insurgency. That united opposition of a "rebel army" in reality is a disunited multitude of different armed factions, governed by rival warlords. Sounds like Afghanistan, doesn't it -- during the Northern Command operations; many of those warlords now in parliament.

There is now an Office of the Chiefs of Staff, led by General Salim Idris, aligned with the opposition Syrian National Coalition. Where is their widespread authority within Syria? Everyone is busy functioning independently of each other in funding and arms and fighting. Fractured, at cross purposes with another, how do they plan, ultimately, to prevail?

Looks, sounds and feels like the Middle East in extremis.

Humility Personified

"I have to be ready even if I think that probably others could do it better. I will cross the river when I get to the bridge, and we are not there.
"My name is circulating but I am very careful to go beyond this sort of media expectation.
"It would be a great novelty, obviously, you know. I think that many others in other parts of the world are well prepared."
"There was a focus on Europe obviously for centuries, and centuries, and that some day, I think some day it is to be expected that a pope would come from Asia, would come from Africa, would come from America. It wouldn't be a surprise. Nowadays it wouldn't be a surprise. And obviously it could bring some new accent."
"And so, we have to do that in conscience. In a way, you don't vote against somebody. You vote for somebody that you believe is the best person for the role."
Cardinal Marc Ouellet

The cardinal has prepared himself, humbly and with respect for his fellow cardinals who may or may not elevate him to the highest office of the Roman Catholic Church. His name, after all, has been touted as a potential successor to Emeritus Pope Benedict. Of course there is the suggestion by the somewhat less immodest Cardinal Peter Turkson of Ghana, who testily advised it was time to elect a third-world pope, and he would be willing to break the mould.

It seems as though there is a silent, unspoken but generally agreed-upon covenant among the cardinals to avoid elevating yet another Italian. A position which the Italian cardinals, who predominate within the Holy See, do not quite share. They have been visibly and determinedly lobbying on their own behalf for the outcome of the ballot, being equally willing to retain honoured tradition.

Or possibly Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines. After all, it is in Asia, South America, Africa, where the Roman Catholic Church is growing.  The date for the conclave has not yet been set, they are awaiting the arrival of a number of cardinals not yet arrived. But it is imminent. If it begins on the tenth, the world may know by the 13th of March who the new pope is, when that tremblor is signalled through the gentle rise of white smoke.

As to the dinosaur that lumbers about the holy city, trampling on everyone's sensitivities, Cardinal Ouellete affirms with respect to the issue of sexual abuse in the priesthood that "This is a very painful question always and everything that was bad, you know is so regretful and the church has apologized many times. Who knows?" in fact, whether it has apologized sufficiently.

"We have learned from our mistakes", he said placidly to the question from CBC News anchor Peter Mansbridge during the interview. The church, he said must always "listen carefully to the victims. But it is not a Catholic problem. It is a human problem. Most of the abuse occurred in families in general in society, and my hope is what was done by the Catholic Church, which is not yet perfect, but could be also of example for others in society."

Wh-wh-what?

Lost continent found off coast of Madagascar lost to the Ocean depths 85 million years ago

National Post Staff | Feb 26, 2013 11:03 AM ET
More from National Post Staff

ROBERTO SCHMIDT/AFP/Getty Images   Waves crest on the beach of an inlet in the north west corner of Mahe, one of the Waves crest on the beach of an inlet in the north west corner of Mahe, one of the Seychelles many islands that comprise this Indian Ocean archipelago country on November 23, 2009. Seychelles was once attached to a continent that now resides at the bottom of the Indian Ocean, a new Scientific report says.

John Goodge/Public Domain/National Post IllustrationThis is an representation of what the Rodinia supercontinent is proposed to have looked like hundreds of millions of years ago. The arrow points to where the newly discovered land mass would have existed.

 

It isn’t quite Atlantis, but scientists from Norway, Germany and Britain have found what they say is a lost continent that they’ve named Mauritia at the bottom of the Indian Ocean.

“We found zircons that we extracted from the beach sands, and these are something you typically find in a continental crust,” Trond Torsvik a professor from the University of Norway told the BBC. “They are very old in age.”

The focus on zircons refers to the fact that most islands, except for very large ones such as Greenland, usually have surfaces that are much different than continents. Further, the bottom of the Ocean is quite different than the continental surface.

The zircons themselves are not especially notable, but the radiological age of the zircons found in the “Mauritia” landmass implies continental crust instead of Ocean floor.

The strip of continent, now at the bottom of the Indian Ocean, once connected Madagascar, the island archipelago of Seychelles and India. As tectonic movement shifted the land masses apart, the connective tissue of Mauritia was pushed to the bottom of the Ocean, where it was shredded and partially consumed by underwater volcanos.

“At the moment the Seychelles is a piece of granite, or continental crust, which is sitting practically in the middle of the Indian Ocean,” Professor Torsvik told the BBC. ”But once upon a time, it was sitting north of Madagascar. And what we are saying is that maybe this was much bigger, and there are many of these continental fragments that are spread around in the ocean.”

The land mass would have been part of the supercontinent of Rodinia, which existed between two billion and 85 million years ago. It did not exist as part of the later, better known, Pangea supercontinent.

It isn’t a sure thing that the continent exists, however. Geologist Jérôme Dyment, told National Geographic that he was unconvinced with the evidence.

“Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence, which are not given by the authors so far,” Dyment told the magazine. ”Finding zircons in sand is one thing, finding them within a rock is another one … Finding the enclave of deep rocks that, according to the author’s inference, bring them to the surface during an eruption would be much more convincing evidence.”

What a Tangled Web We've Woven

In taking sides and separating friends from enemies there are times when complex issues arise out of seemingly simple solutions. Never more obvious than when one country interferes in the internal affairs of another, where culture, religion, heritage, societal norms intersect in a manner foreign to the country that seeks intervention. And then there is the more subtle engagement of cultures and societal normatives interacting when people migrate from one geographic location to another.

The fall-out from intervention whose long-range effects have not been usefully contemplated for potential consequences, often comes back to haunt a region that has been destabilized and not the least bit helped by foreign 'assistance'. This was seen when, during the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, the U.S. CIA helped to provide weaponry and to train Afghan mujahadeen along with Pakistan, to battle the invading foreigners.

And then those battle-hardened mujahadeen calling themselves the Taliban, fought for the right to capture, control and administer the country, against the Northern Alliance comprised of a multitude of Afghan warlords and political parties. The Taliban, ensconced in Afghanistan after their success, made common cause with collegial al-Qaeda which became the living nightmare of the United States.

When the United States marched into Iraq with their Coalition of the Willing partners to unseat the tyrannical Saddam Hussein, depicting him as a threat to the world, they unseated a minority Baathist who kept the Sunni majority and the Iraqi Kurds under his merciless thumb, unleashing a bloody sectarian war between Sunni and Shia, kept in check by their now-deposed dictator.

But now Iraq is more destabilized than ever with ongoing terror attacks, and it has moved cozily into religious communion with Iran, a country it latterly spent a decade brutally battling, now a nuclear-aspiring power that does in fact represent a threat to world peace and stability. This was not supposed to happen under American democratic tutelage; a country that the U.S. freed from its former brutality has returned to a different brutality, no less miserable and just as threatening.

Another Baathist regime where Alawite Shiites led a regime that oppressed its Sunni majority population and refused its Kurds citizenship, has entered central casting.  President Bashar al Assad of Syria was a popular figure in the United States recognized as authoritarian, but acceptably so, until he began emulating his late father in tamping down rebellious revolutionaries with the help of his sponsoring Iranian allies.

Canada, like the United States, Britain and other NATO countries made efforts to train the Afghan forces, its military and national police to Western standards. Supplying them with uniforms, and weaponry and guidance that will be used in fairly short order by the returning Taliban whose alliance with al-Qaeda has never been diminished. In the interim, the Western allies are puzzled by the number of Afghan trainees that have turned their gifted weapons upon their trainers.

The record in North Africa among Muslim countries is little different. Canada and the United States set up military training programs for Malian military, particularly the paratroopers who formed the country's elite presidential guard loyal to the democratically elected president. Whom a coup, a year later, unseated. Those who were trained by Canada attempted a counter-coup, only to be defeated, taken prisoner, tortured and killed by opposing Malian military.

There are some movements that are inexorable, unstoppable, and during this era in human relations the movement that stands out is one that derives its impetus from traditional, historic Islamic military action to acquire greater tracts of geography and larger religious adherents in an ongoing effort to dominate as much of the world as can be accomplished, through jihad.

The traditional, conventional dictators of the Middle East and North Africa who had oppressed their people, violated their trust, absorbed and despoiled the riches of their natural resources are slowly being replaced by theocratic tyrants, inspired by the advent of the Iranian Islamic Revolution and Saudi Arabia's oil wealth spreading its Wahhabist ideology throughout the Muslim world; Shia jihad for the former, Sunni for the latter.

The struggle for hegemony and power between the larger, more populous Sunni bloc and the smaller, soon-to-be-more-powerful (through nuclear arms) Shia bloc presents one element of a complex strategy, the other being each of the adversaries finding common cause in their violent opposition to the decadent, deceitful West whom they sneeringly describe as Crusaders, infidels and Zionists.

The West has become spectators in the arena of the struggle between the two major sects of Islam. A struggle that includes the disintegration of one country after another from dysfunctional malaise governed by secular-oriented autocratic government, be it a sheikdom, a kingdom or a theocracy, to fully Sharia-led Islamist governments taking the helm of abysmally religiously-manipulated power restricting human rights and threatening those who oppose them.

Solutions are frustratingly evasive. Non-interference is not an option. It is not possible to remain outside the play and interplay of nations falling one after the other into the hands of fanatics posing as responsible executive powers. Yet those who find their inspiration in the more radical elements of their faith cannot be unseated by outside intervention other than by military means, and this is not a feasible option, until and unless it becomes an existential imperative.

The world is living through a dilemma of unforeseen proportions as human nature and invention intersect to give us industrialized, technologically advanced countries facing the prospect of being covertly invaded by scores of innocent-enough migrants seeking a better life for themselves, bringing along with them those cultural, social, religious and heritage aspects that sooner or later morph into threats to the welcoming culture, social order and national laws.

The end to this absorbing, multi-faceted play has not yet been written.

Two more Syrian generals and three state journalists defect

Friday, 28 December 2012

Syrian regime forces raise Bashar al-Assad’s picture in Damascus. (AFP)

 

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By Al Arabiya with Agencies

A Turkish diplomat said on Friday that two Syrian air force generals have defected from the regime of President Bashar al-Assad and joined opposition forces in Turkey. Meanwhile, three Syrian state journalists deserted President Assad’s media arm.

The generals, commanders of the Regional Air Force, have crossed the border and arrived in the town of Reylanli in southern Turkey, the Turkish diplomat told AFP on condition of anonymity.

The generals and dozens of lower-ranking officers and their families were taken to a separate camp where army defectors take refuge.

Turkish officials refuse to give an exact number of Syrian generals currently on Turkish soil as some are returning to Syria to join the active fighters inside the conflict-wracked country.

In Paris, three journalists announced defection from the regime's media machine. In a press conference attended by Al Arabiya, Kamal Jamal Beck (C), former director of programming at the official SANA radio and the SANA online news website, and Lama Al-Khadra Baddour Abdel Karim said the state media have turned into military barricade for Shabbiha forces.

They said the Syrian state TV building houses all forms of intelligence services and snipers on the roof. They said they were laying the foundation for a new Syrian television to to replace the regime's channel after the fall of Assad.

The latest defections come as Syrian opposition forces besiege Menagh air base northwest of Aleppo after months of clashes with loyalist troops.

Turkey is currently home to around 148,000 Syrian refugees registered in several camps along its volatile border, as well as the exiled Syrian opposition's political and military leadership.

Already on Wednesday, General Abdel Aziz Jassem al-Shallal, commander of the Syrian military police, crossed into Turkey via the Cilvegozu border crossing in the town of Reyhanli.

Turkey fell out with one-time ally Syria after the regime unleashed a deadly crackdown on protests in March last year, and has joined in Arab and Western calls for the ouster of President Bashar al-Assa

The MidEast Islamist Springboard

"The bullets came from a moving ambulance.  Mubarak's people were screaming from the vehicle that we had to go inside and stop protesting.  The bullets were fired randomly.  They thought that they could intimidate us.  But the entire neighbourhood came out in even greater numbers the next day  We were not going to be stopped."
Amr Seoud, Egyptian 100-metre champion

 Unfortunately the experience he related did not turn out well for the individual who was sitting on a parked car alongside other protesters.  The man who happened to be sitting beside Seoud died in the gunfire.  And Seud, who came to the opinion that Egypt deserved better than the autocracy it was living under decided to suspend his sport training.  He would join the protests.

"I was incredibly optimistic when I joined the protests.  I had seen the freedoms enjoyed by people in the rest of the world and wanted the same in my beloved Egypt.  When [President Hosni] Mubarak fell, it was as if the nation had crossed a threshold to a brighter future.  What we didn't realize was that other forces were already getting ready to hijack the revolution."

"I took a taxi with friends to the square.  We stood and shouted slogans.  The number of people just kept increasing and by the time we left at 2 a.m. we could feel that something incredible was happening.  My training for the Olympics just didn't seem important any more."

"We were naive.  We thought that Mubarak's exit would automatically usher in a new system.  Many young people were attracted by the Muslim Brotherhood when we had elections because they had been active during the demonstrations, protecting people.  But it was a front.  They are more interested in their own agenda than the future of Egypt. I have lost all respect for them since they came to power."

The Muslim Brotherhood initiated a sustained campaign to win the trust of the poor and the downtrodden.  They offered assistance in all spheres, from money to the destitute, food and shelter, medical care and legal support, while fostering within society a longing for a more pure, fundamental kind of Islam, attracting adherents impressed by their care for the oppressed and the indigent.  Their attention to this program gained them a wide support from the uneducated, the poor.

"Economically and socially, the revolutions have put the Arab Spring nations back by decades.  Islamists have effectively hijacked the coups and now have the ascendancy across the region.  They do not have majority support, but with low turnouts, they have gained disproportionate power.  And history suggests that once they gain power, they rarely relinquish it", explained John Bradley, a journalist living in the Middle East.

An example, said Bradley is what has occurred in Tunisia where socially liberal society there saw women with equal rights.  And where before their revolution women were discouraged from wearing the veil with the view that it was demeaning, where abortion was available on demand and prostitution regulated, sports participation by women was encouraged, that has all changed. 

Salafists have firebombed abortion clinics and brothels, and social intimidation forces women to wear the niqab. Islamist clerics abhor women's participation in sports and particularly in rural areas of Tunisia, women's rights are in deep reversion. Extremists called for the assassination of Habiba Ghribi when she became the first Tunisian woman ever to stand on the Olympic podium, winning silver in the 3,000 metre steeplechase in London, 2012.

In Libya, rival sectarian militias clash in bloody struggles for power.  Armed militias are "acting completely out of control ... there are hundreds of them across the country, arresting people without warrant, detaining them incommunicado, and torturing them", according to Amnesty International. 

In Syria, the ongoing clash between the regime and the rebel forces continue to take a heavy toll on civilian life.  In the background of the opposition lurks the Brotherhood and al-Qaeda affiliated militia. It is the presence of the Islamists in the forefront of the rebel attacks against the regime that has kept the West from intervening as they did in Libya and then regretted, witnessing the ascendancy of chaos and Islamism.

The world looking in from outside has been fascinated by what they believe has been upheavals motivated by young liberals, university graduates, socialists, minority and Christian groups agitating for equality and freedom and liberties traditionally withheld from them.  But what began in Tunisia and spread to other countries in the Middle East was motivated by economic stress; high unemployment, the rising cost of food and oil.

Complicated by sectarian and tribal animosities.  And all of it, the fear and determination to bring about change, the dedication to getting out on the streets and battling for change was stealthily and carefully infiltrated by and finally co-opted by Islamists, the Brotherhood and the more viral Salafists, to achieve their own goals.  Slowly but surely they are rising and taking their initiative.

Syria unrest: Air strike on bakery 'kills or wounds dozens'

BBC News online - 23 December 2012

Activists said hundreds of people may have been queuing at the time

Dozens of people have been killed or wounded in a government air strike on a bakery in the central Syrian province of Hama, opposition activists say.

The incident took place in the town of Halfaya, the activists said.

There are fears the casualties may be even higher, making this one of the deadliest air strikes of the civil war.

Rebels have been fighting President Bashar al-Assad for 21 months, with activist groups saying more than 44,000 people have been killed.

The latest violence comes as the United Nations and Arab League special envoy on Syria, Lakhdar Brahimi, arrived in Damascus to discuss ways to end the unrest.

One activist in Halfaya, Samer al-Hamawi, told Reuters news agency: "There is no way to really know yet how many people were killed. When I got there, I could see piles of bodies all over the ground.

"We hadn't received flour in around three days so everyone was going to the bakery today, and lots of them were women and children. I still don't know yet if my relatives are among the dead."

There are fears the toll of casualties could be considerably higher, as hundreds were said to be in the queues.

Unverified video footage purportedly of the incident's aftermath showed graphic images of bloody bodies strewn on a road outside a partially destroyed building.

Rescuers were trying to remove some of the victims buried beneath piles of bricks and rubble.
Several badly damaged motorbikes could be seen scattered near the site of the attack which had drawn a number of armed men to the area.

Rebels of the Free Syrian Army have been making a concerted push recently to take areas of Hama province.

Five days ago they declared Halfaya a "liberated area" after taking over army positions there.
The BBC's Jim Muir in Beirut says the rebels want to take control of the whole of Hama and link up the territory they control. As has happened many times before, he says, the government has hit back with massive firepower at the areas it has lost.

The UK-based opposition activist group, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, said there had been other air strikes on Sunday, including one on the town of Safira in northern Aleppo province, which killed 13 people.

The Observatory also reported that jets had struck the town of Saqba, just north of Damascus.
Meanwhile Mr Brahimi, on his third trip to Damascus since taking the post, arrived overland from Beirut because of fighting near Damascus airport.

He is expected to meet Syria's foreign minister and President Assad.

However, Mr Brahimi has made little progress on a peace process so far and it is unclear what new ideas he may be bringing.

Our correspondent says the rebels now have a clear sense of victory and will not call off their attacks while they feel success is imminent.

He says the rebels' primary demand is for President Assad to go and, should that happen, the international community is hoping there may be a chance for negotiations for a peaceful transfer of power.

Syrian fighters capture Aleppo infantry base in latest blow to the Assad regime

Sunday, 16 December 2012

Members of the Al-Baraa bin Malek batallion, part of the Free Syria Army's Al-Fatah brigade, duck to the ground as they pull a man (R) who was shot by a sniper twice in Aleppo. (AFP)

 

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By Al Arabiya with Agencies

A faction of Syrian opposition forces captured a regime infantry base in the northern city of Aleppo on Sunday, as forces battling to topple President Bashar al-Assad advanced on the country’s largest city.

The base was the second major army installation taken by Syrian fighters in the city in a week. Its fall is the latest blow to the regime.

A statement by the al-Tawheed Brigade said fighters “fully liberated” the military facility in Aleppo on Saturday. It was posted on al-Tawheed’s official website on Sunday.

The complex, known as Hanano Barracks, includes an army base, a recruiting center and a military school.

The Al-Tawheed Brigade is one of the largest opposition groups operating in Syria’s second city, which has been a major front in the civil war since July.

Last week more than 100 nations, including the United States, recognized the new Syrian opposition council as the legitimate representative of the country, a boost for the opposition forces that have been bombing regime targets in and around Damascus.

But, Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said on Sunday the opposition fighters cannot emerge victorious from the 21-month-long conflict.

Nasrallah, a staunch ally Assad, said: “The situation in Syria is getting more complicated (but) anyone who thinks the armed opposition can settle the situation on the ground is very very very mistaken.”

Syrian opposition forces accuse the militant group of sending fighters to Syria to help Assad, who is trying to crush a revolt against his rule. However, the Lebanese group denies these accusations.

Nasrallah added that the West and some allied Arab countries had lured al Qaeda-affiliated fighters into Syria to be killed.

"I warn al Qaeda: the Americans and the European countries and Arab and Islamic countries have set a trap for you in Syria, and opened for you a battlefield so you come from across the world ... to be killed and to kill each other..."

Activists say more than 40,000 people have been killed in the conflict since it erupted in March 2011.

Alarmed by the growing strength and influence of al Qaeda-inspired fighters in Syria, the United States has put the al-Nusra Front on its official blacklist of terrorist organizations, angering many Syrian rebel brigades.

Islam as Opposed to Islamism

They are not the same.  One is a religion, the other is a political ideology purportedly based on the tenets of Islam with an emphasis on violent jihad.  Islamic moderates view jihad as a moral obligation in surrender to Islam, but their jihad is that of an inner struggle to combat within themselves their base inclinations invested in human emotions, to find a finer human being within in service to the religion they have faith in.

Those who subscribe to and take pride in their fundamentalist view of Islam prefer another kind of jihad, one dependent on physical violence in their struggle to be 'worthy' in response to the Islamic calls to submission in totality.  Theirs is a totalitarian Islamism, one that will not recognize the legitimacy of other religions nor equality among peoples, invested as they are with the intention to subordinate all other religions to their own.

Traditional Islam, as its faithful would have it, is a religion of peace and tolerance.  Peace and tolerance are absent from the religion as practised more widely now through sects like Wahhabism, Salafism and the Taliban with their deadly offshoots like al-Qaeda, practised in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Iran which led the radical new Islamism with its revolutionary zeal.

But radicalism in Islam long pre-dated Iran's revolution and the ferociously bellicose and threatening Islamism seen terrorizing the world is on a growth spurt.  In less radicalized form, but equally fundamentalist are the theocracies developing in Turkey and in Egypt, Tunisia and Libya, which initiated themselves through an 'Arab Spring' initiative which became an Islamist springboard.

There are  gradations.  Bassam Tibi, a senior fellow at Stanford University who has made it his life-work to study Islam reached the stark conclusion that "Islamism is a totalitarian ideology" which cannot lend itself to democracy.  All jihadists, he points out are Islamists, yet not all Islamists are jihadists.  A riff perhaps on the observation that not all Arabs are terrorists but all terrorists are Arabs to the West.

"Can we trust Islamists who forgo violence to participate in good faith within a pluralistic, democratic system?" he posits.  And then responds, "I believe we cannot."  The answer lies in the fact that "the Islamic solution, a kind of magic answer for all of the problems - global and local, socio-economic or value-related - in the crisis-ridden world of Islam" is the goal of Islamism, through a global evangelism.  The creation of a Caliphate to rule the world.  As trite as that sounds.

The more local Islamic solution where Islamism rules has not accomplished its stated goal to solve all problems.  The evidence lies in the grimly dysfunctional state of societies in Iran, Afghanistan under the Taliban, in Gaza under Hamas and in Sudan under a president who has been charged with genocide by the International Criminal Court.  Syria is on its way to becoming an Islamist state, as is Iraq, Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, Turkey and Mali with more to follow.

And then we come to another stark reality; the steady creep of Islamism into the non-Muslim world.  Where violent jihad has spread terror yet its total effect in producing a devastating number of victims despite the horrors of its successes, has been relatively minimal.  It is the other way, that of migration and the jihad of inner conflict through fealty to Islam that will produce in time the democracy smothering effect of Islamist evangelism.

The wealth of the oil-rich Gulf states who have spread their largess in the establishment of madrasses and mosques abroad, who fund Islamist groups on university campuses, who encourage their recruits to infiltrate governments open to trust and the appeal of pluralistic advantages in expanding their societies and offering haven to those fleeing the oppression of religious and other types of repression.

They find themselves homes at elite universities with well-funded Islamic studies programs to teach the infidel the glory and beatitude of Islam.  Where there is a will there is a way.  And Islamists depend on God willing, Inshallah.

Say It Isn't So...!

It's downright bizarre.  Difficult to fathom that people living in present-day Canada - let alone elsewhere in the world where we take it on faith that most people are rational, half-way intelligent and able to slough off notions that have no scientific basis other than that a myth has been handed down over a substantial period of human history.  We live in a scientific, enlightened age.  But that doesn't make any difference?

The end of the Mayan calender has fixed attention on the date of December 21.  The arrival of the end of the world, since the calender is fixed at that date; it proceeds no further.  Why would the world end on that date?  Not because we're sick and tired of behaving like barbarians when it comes to fearing and fighting one another, with one meaningless war after another taking away human life.

Armageddon, that will do it.

The End of Days.  Sounds so romantic.  Sounds so erratically perverse, and absurd.  But people are drawn to the concept.  It fascinates them, fills them with dread and apprehension, infuses them with fear and expectation, makes their imaginations go into overtime mode at space-age speed.  We do live in the space age, the age of astral closeness in a sense, the age of space travel, of human beings remaining in space for extended, experimental periods of time.

But we're not ready to make it a permanent exodus.  We treasure our little Planet in our own Milky Way galaxy.  Why would we choose to believe and to anticipate that nature or some irresistible, omnipotent force we cannot quite imagine, is prepared to bring doom and damnation upon us?  A scant handful of wingnuts cling to what they feel is inevitable, so why be concerned?

Well, a recent Ipsos survey of a representative sample of people in 21 countries retrieved the data that ten percent of global citizens are in agreement that "the Mayan calendar, which some say 'ends' in 2012, marks the end of the world."  Well, these are obviously people living in backward countries who never were exposed to the advantages of a good, modern education.

On the other hand, in Canada, a technologically advanced country with an exceptional and broad education system fully nine percent of the population appear to side with the ten percent global sample clinging to the belief that termination of the world is nigh.

"Humans are very preoccupied with their own lifetimes.  There's a latent concern in everybody that maybe there's something (threatening) out there that they should be aware of", is the considered opinion of an associate professor of environmental studies at Wilfrid Laurier University in Waterloo, Ontario.

Or, as yet another assistant professor, in the school of Earth and Ocean Sciences at the University of Victoria would have it: "Ultimately, the apocalypse will be something called a runaway greenhouse...Venus in the past is the Earth in the future" ... but, he rounds out his statement: "I wouldn't change your Christmas plans."

Revenge, Slaughter - Victory

Syria, in the good graces of the Soviet Union circa 1980s was given assistance in developing its store of chemical weapons; immeasurable help in stockpiling ingredients, working out how they could best weaponize aircraft, ballistic missiles and artillery rockets.  It's now generally agreed that Syria's chemical weapons' stockpile, stored in 50 towns and cities stands at approximately 1,000 tonnes. 

Satellite surveillance has recently revealed the regime has loaded mixed nerve agents into aerial bombs on Syrian airfields.

Of the chemicals, it is believed that sarin was the chemical put into abeyant action.  Its constituents are stored separately under normal circumstances, so it is inactive until the chemical components are mixed together.  When they are mixed the result becomes a deadly weapon - a weapon of mass destruction.  With a shelf life of weeks, a month perhaps, until it becomes inert, no longer active and useful.

Sarin activated means a decision has been reached.  Not a final decision perhaps, but a decision nevertheless.  One that can result in a stand-down of intention, or one that can be invoked to create a deadly menace, when used.  The threat is considered to be credible enough that Turkey has called urgently upon NATO to install defensive Patriot missiles on its border with Syria, and that has been accomplished.

Israel states that it has the defensive means to protect itself.  The regime, while not denying, yet not confirming it has chemical stockpiles, pledges on its honour that it would never, under any circumstances, use them on their own people, Syrians.  It would, however, not hesitate to use them on enemies, those who pose a threat to the existence of the regime.

Should that chemical be unleashed, its release into the atmosphere would affect countless human beings.  Sarin is extremely dangerous to human health and longevity.  Even at low atmospheric concentrations it is capable of penetrating the skin, the largest organ of the body.  It attacks the nervous system; unless treated immediately with an antidote, convulsions ensue; coma and death follow.

The Assad regime claims it is being subjected to "psychological warfare", that the Patriot missiles NATO placed along its border with Turkey are meant to intimidate it, to stop it from battling the rebel army the "terrorists".  The placement of those missiles is about as close to intervention in the civil war in Syria as the West is interested in investing in. 

No one has any appetite to intervene in the struggle between the Alawite regime and the Free Syrian Army.

Most intelligence experts believe that President al-Assad's reign is just about at the end of its tether.  The 'events on the ground are accelerating'.  The regime's opposition has taken increasing possession of many key areas critical to the survival of the government they are determined to unseat.  President al-Assad's most senior Christian ally, foreign ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi has defected.

France and Britain have supported the new opposition alliance as the rightful voice of the new Syria.  The United States, stung once too often, and acutely aware of the Islamists and al-Qaeda-affiliated militias that have joined the rebels have no wish to support those elements.  They know what happened to the weapons supplied to the emerging Afghan Taliban, just as they understand what happened to those supplied to the Libyan rebels.

The chemical weapons stockpiles are of major concern; their vulnerability to being taken into the hands of terror groups, of Hezbollah, even Hamas concerns everyone.  Destruction or removal of the stocks would be ideal, neutralizing a dreadful threat.  Ideally intervention should come from a combined force reflecting the surrounding Arab/Muslim states' responsibilities.

In the brief interim of whatever will be revealed to be reality, suspense reigns.  Until Bashar al-Assad is removed from office and from the country, or he is assassinated by someone close to him, fulfilling his desire to remain, to die in his country if need be.  It is needed.

And then another problem will face the watching world.  Once the Alawite regime is down and out and the opposition has prevailed, what then?  As has occurred elsewhere in the Middle East when a bloody tyrant has been removed, Islamist forces have moved in, with their view of puritanical Islam, their oppressive rulings, Sharia law, and invariably, revenge upon those whom they view as enemies of pure Islam.

The minority Shia population protected by their Shia Alawite regime will be considered fair game to the exultant Sunni conquerers.  The Syrian Christian population will be another target.  And the Druze, although not allowed citizenship under the Alawite government, did not fight with the rebels but sometimes against them.

Ian Smith's farm seized in Zimbabwe as Robert Mugabe eyes election

BBC News online - 7 December 2012

Ian Smith was Rhodesia's prime minister from 1964 until 1979

Zimbabwe - New Era?

The farm of former white minority leader Ian Smith has been seized by Zimbabwe's government.

Mr Smith led Rhodesia, as Zimbabwe was known, when its forces battled Robert Mugabe's guerrillas in the 1970s.

Most white-owned land has been confiscated for redistribution to black farmers since 2000. Mr Smith's farm, known as Gwenoro, had been left alone.

The seizure came as Mr Mugabe addressed thousands of his supporters, ahead of elections expected in 2013.

Zimbabwe's land-reform programme has been widely blamed for its economic collapse in recent years.

BBC Africa correspondent Andrew Harding says Gwenoro was perhaps the most symbolic of all Zimbabwe's white-owned farms.

It was where Mr Smith bred cattle and lived for most of his adult life, even after he lost power in 1979.

His ashes were scattered there after he died in 2007.

The farm has been handed over to a local technical college - a move some are linking to next year's election.

Mr Mugabe, 88, is running for another term.

Our correspondent says land ownership remains a highly politicised, emotive issue, and seizing Mr Smith's farm may be seen as a vote-winner.

The AFP news agency also reports that Mr Mugabe on Friday told delegates to his party conference that he wanted to seize full control of foreign-owned companies.

His government has already passed an indigenisation law, which forced companies to cede 51% of shares to Zimbabweans.

"I think now we have done enough of 51%. Let it be 100%," he told thousands of Zanu-PF delegates.

The indigenisation policy is opposed by Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai, who will once more run against Mr Mugabe in the election.

The pair agreed to share power after disputes over the last election caused the economy to go into freefall.

Japan earthquake sparks tsunami scare

The BBC's Rupert Wingfield-Hayes said he felt his building shake "violently"

A 7.3-magnitude quake has struck off Japan's eastern coast, triggering a small tsunami and sparking evacuations.

A one-metre wave hit Ishinomaki in Miyagi Prefecture and many people heeded calls to move to higher ground before all alerts were later lifted.

The quake epicentre was about 245km (150 miles) south-east of Kamiashi at a depth of about 36km, the US Geological Survey (USGS) said.

Miyagi was hit by a devastating earthquake and tsunami in March 2011.

The US-based Pacific Tsunami Warning Center had said there was no threat to the wider Pacific Ocean but had warned a local tsunami could be destructive for local coastlines.

From the scene

Rupert Wingfield-Hayes BBC News, Tokyo

A 7.3-magnitude earthquake is not a small event. Even in Tokyo, the buildings shook violently, creaking as they swayed back and forth.
But the epicentre was more than 250km offshore, and Japan's cities are engineered to withstand earthquakes, probably better than anywhere else in the world.
So the biggest danger was from another tsunami. And initially it looked like one might be coming. Tsunami alarms went off along the north-east coast. Radio broadcasts on the national NHK station told people on the coast to leave their homes immediately.
In the end, when the tsunami came ashore, it was small and didn't do any significant damage. But since the 2011 Tohoku earthquake, everybody is a lot more jittery about any suggestion of a tsunami.

There have been no reports of deaths, injuries or serious damage, and all tsunami warnings were cancelled at 19:20 local time (10:20 GMT), broadcaster NHK said.

Warnings of the tsunami height had varied between 50cm and 2m.

The BBC's Rupert Wingfield-Hayes in Tokyo says any such height would represent a far lower risk of devastation than the tsunami of up to 11 metres that struck in 2011 but that, since then, the country has clearly become jittery about any shaking of the earth.

The tsunami warnings had extended from the top of the main island of Honshu down towards Tokyo and evacuations were ordered from some of the affected areas.

With Japan's early warning system, NHK was able to break off its regular programming and issue an alert about the earthquake shortly before it struck.

A presenter on state broadcaster NHK then told viewers: "Remember last year's quake and tsunami. Call on your neighbours and flee to higher ground now!"

Buildings swayed violently in Tokyo.

Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda cancelled campaigning for the 16 December election to return to his office.

Communications to Miyagi have proven difficult, with the high volume of telephone calls. Trains in the prefecture were halted and the runway at Sendai airport closed.

English teacher John Heritage, who is in Tagajo in Miyagi Prefecture, told the BBC the earthquake was not as powerful as some he had experienced but was worrying as it went on so long.

He said: "The students were kind of worried. Normally they're pretty calm, but they looked concerned. Then the tsunami alarm started going off and we evacuated to higher ground."

Jamie El-Banna, founder of It's Not Just Mud - a volunteer disaster relief organisation - said he joined the evacuation in Ishinomaki.

Analysis

Jason Palmer Science and technology reporter, BBC News

Friday's earthquake has been a showcase for Japan's early warning system, first tested in 2004. Many on the ground say they received warning alerts on their mobile phones tens of seconds before the earthquake hit.
Japan's network of seismometers detects the arrival of one of two types of quake waves - the faster-moving but much less damaging "P waves". That surely allows precious seconds to seek shelter but in reality it is only detecting a quake, not predicting one.
The science behind longer-term predictions - hours, days or weeks in advance - is the subject of intense research. This ranges from using satellites to detect tiny deformations of the Earth's surface through purely mathematical approaches to harnessing animals' purported ability to sense coming quakes. But scientists are still some way from making reliable predictions - and avoiding the damaging risk of false alarms.

He told the BBC: "We live less than a kilometre from the water so we went calmly as far back from the water as possible, which is what the advice is if you can't get to higher ground. Everyone evacuated in a calm, orderly way."

Other people reported being alerted to the earthquake prior to its arrival by Japan's mobile phone-based warning system.

One tweeted that he was given 10 seconds and was able to slow his car before the shaking struck.
The USGS reported at least six aftershocks, the strongest of which was 6.2 in magnitude.

The 9.0 magnitude quake that struck on 11 March 2011 caused a devastating tsunami and left more than 15,000 people dead, with more than 3,200 missing.

That quake triggered a meltdown of fuel rods at the Fukushima nuclear plant, causing radiation leaks and mass evacuations.

The plant's operator, Tokyo Electric Power, told Agence France-Presse there were no reports of problems there this time, although workers had moved to higher ground.

Syrian chemical weapons may force Western military action: sources

National Post Wire Services, Associated Press and National Post Staff | Dec 6, 2012 2:14 PM ET | Last Updated: Dec 6, 2012 2:25 PM ET

ODD ANDERSEN/AFP/Getty Images Rebel soldiers walk through the rubble of building in the northern Syrian city Aleppo on December 6, 2012.

 

I don’t support Western military intervention in Syria’s civil war. But if reports now emerging from the U.S. defence community are to be believed, and if Syria has indeed prepared its arsenal of sarin nerve gas for use, then things have changed. And the U.S., or NATO collectively, needs to go in and take these weapons out. Now.  Matt Gurney, National Post
Sarin is extraordinarily unpleasant stuff. It can be inhaled or, even at very low atmospheric concentrations, penetrate the skin. It attacks the body’s nervous system, causing systems and glands to “overload.” Exposure, unless treated with specific antidotes immediately, results in convulsions, coma and then death.
READ MORE

As anonymous sources within the U.S. state department leak information Syria may be loading warheads with chemical weapons, sources in France have begun indicating that a Western strike against the Assad regime could begin very soon.

Although the chemical weapon agents had not yet been loaded into planes, the State Department source, quoted by NBC News, said that if they are “there’s little the outside world can do to stop it.”
French weekly Le Point is reporting that France is preparing a military response similar to that used against Libya. There is no ground assault or sustained air campaign planned, the magazine says, but several smaller raids that would target chemical weapon sites and take away President Bashar al-Assad’s air superiority.

The timing of Syria’s moves on their chemical weapons come as the situation is “accelerating” on the ground, with Assad’s regime losing to the rebels.

Diplomatic efforts to end Syria’s civil war moved forward Thursday with Secretary of State Hillary Clinton joining Russia’s foreign minister and the UN peace envoy to the Arab country for extraordinary three-way talks that suggested Washington and Moscow might finally unite behind a strategy as the Assad regime weakens.

In Washington, Defence Secretary Leon Panetta said intelligence reports raise fears that an increasingly desperate Assad is considering using his chemical weapons arsenal — which the U.S. and Russia agree is unacceptable. It was unclear whether he might target rebels within Syria or bordering countries, but growing concern over such a scenario was clearly adding urgency to discussions an ocean away in Ireland’s capital.

On the sidelines of a human rights conference, Clinton gathered with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and mediator Lakhdar Brahimi to look for a strategy the international community could rally around to end Syria’s 21-month civil war. The former Cold War foes have fought bitterly over how to address the conflict, but Clinton stressed before the meeting that they shared a common goal.

AP Photo/Narciso Contreras    In this Wednesday, Dec. 5, 2012 photo, a baby walker is seen near a hole in a wall, recently done by Free Syrian Army fighters to help them during heavy clashes with government forces in Aleppo, Syria.

 

“We have been trying hard to work with Russia to try to stop the bloodshed in Syria and start a political transition for a post-Assad Syrian future,” Clinton told reporters in Dublin.

“Events on the ground in Syria are accelerating and we see that in many different ways,” she said. “The pressure against the regime in and around Damascus seems to be increasing. We’ve made it very clear what our position is with respect to chemical weapons, and I think we will discuss that and many other aspects of what is needed to end the violence.”

Earlier Thursday, Clinton and Lavrov met separately for about 25 minutes. They agreed to hear Brahimi out on a path forward, a senior U.S. official said. The two also discussed issues ranging from Egypt to North Korea, as well as new congressional action aimed at Russian officials accused of complicity in the death of lawyer Sergei Magnitsky.

Washington and Moscow have more often publicly chastised each other than cooperated on an international strategy for Syria. The U.S. has criticized Russia for shielding its Arab ally. The Russians have accused the U.S. of meddling by demanding Assad’s downfall and ultimately seeking an armed intervention such as the one last year against the late Libyan strongman Muammar Gaddafi.

AP Photo/Narciso Contreras   In this Wednesday, Dec. 5, 2012 photo, Free Syrian Army fighters aim their weapons inside an abandoned building during heavy clashes with government forces in Aleppo, Syria.

 

But the gathering of the three key international figures suggests possible compromise in the offing. At a minimum, it confirms what officials describe as an easing of some of the acrimony that has raged between Moscow and Washington over the future of Syria, an ethnically diverse nation whose stability is critical given its geographic position in between powder kegs Iraq, Lebanon and Israel.
Panetta said Thursday that the U.S. fears Syria is thinking of using its chemical weapons.

“The intelligence that we have raises serious concern that this is being considered,” he told reporters. Other administration officials in recent days have spoken about Syrians preparing weapon components of sarin gas. The new activity, coupled with fears that rebel advances are making Assad more desperate, have led to the fear that he is deploying the weapons.

On Thursday, Syria’s Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad accused the United States and Europe of using the issue of chemical weapons to justify a future military intervention against Syria. He warned that any such intervention would be “catastrophic.”

It’s unclear what new approach Brahimi may outline. One possibility would involve resuscitating, with U.S. and Russian support, the political transition strategy both countries agreed on in Geneva in June.

AP Photo/Narciso Contreras   In this Wednesday, Dec. 5, 2012 photo, a Free Syrian Army fighter uses a tool to break a hole in the wall of a residents' home during heavy clashes with government forces in Aleppo, Syria.

 

That plan demanded several steps by the Assad regime to de-escalate tensions and end the violence that activists say has killed more than 40,000 people since March 2011. It would then have required Syria’s opposition and the regime to put forward candidates for a transitional government, with each side having the right to veto nominees proposed by the other.

If employed, the strategy would surely mean the end of more than four decades of an Assad family member at Syria’s helm. The opposition has demanded Assad’s departure and has rejected any talk of him staying in power. Yet it also would grant regime representatives the opportunity to block Sunni extremists and others in the opposition that they reject.

The transition plan never got off the ground this summer, partly because no pressure was applied to see it succeed by a deeply divided international community. Brahimi’s predecessor, former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, who drafted the plan, then resigned his post in frustration.

The United States blamed the collapse on Russia for vetoing a third resolution at the UN Security Council that would have applied world sanctions against Assad’s government for failing to live by the deal’s provisions.

Russia insisted that the Americans unfairly sought Assad’s departure as a precondition and worried about opening the door to military action, even as Washington offered to include language in any UN resolution that would have expressly forbade outside armed intervention.

AP Photo/Narciso ContrerasIn this Wednesday, Dec. 5, 2012 photo, smoke rises from residential buildings due heavy fighting between Free Syrian Army fighters and government forces in Aleppo, Syria.

 

Should a plan similar to that one be proposed, the Obama administration is likely to insist anew that it be internationally enforceable — a step Moscow may still be reluctant to commit to.

In any case, the U.S. insists the tide of the war is turning definitively against Assad.

This news comes as the whereabouts of a recent high profile apparent defector from Syria became unclear.

Backtracking from earlier comments, the Obama administration says it does not know the whereabouts of Syrian foreign ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi, who disappeared this week.
State Department spokesman Mark Toner now says U.S. officials have seen “various reports” regarding Makdissi’s location but cannot confirm any of them — except that he’s not in the United States.

Toner had said Wednesday the U.S. understood the longtime foreign ministry spokesman was in London, but British officials later denied he was there.

Another official said Makdissi might be in a Persian Gulf country, but stressed that Washington was not tracking his movements. That official spoke on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to speak publicly on the matter.

AP Photo/Narciso Contreras     In this Wednesday, Dec. 5, 2012 photo, smoke rises from residential buildings due heavy fighting between Free Syrian Army fighters and government forces in Aleppo, Syria.

Kedar: Israel 'Knows How to Deal With Syrian Chemical Threat'

As Syria raises the stakes over its chemical weapons, an Israeli expert says measures are being taken to minimize the threat.

By Chana Ya'ar - Arutz Sheva 7

First Publish: 12/6/2012, 3:16 PM

Patriot Missile Battery

IDF/Flash 90

 

As the Syrian regime raises the stakes over its chemical weapons, an Israeli military intelligence expert says measures are being taken to minimize the threat.

Lt. Col. (res.) Mordechai Kedar, a lecturer at Bar Ilan University and a 25-year veteran of military intelligence says actions are quietly being taken to deal with the potential threat posed by Syria's chemical arsenal.

The U.S. said earlier this week that its intelligence had detected Syrian technicians had mixed precursor chemicals for the deadly nerve gas called sarin. The process took place at two storage sites, according to at least one report, and sources said the chemical may have been loaded into aerial bombs or artillery shells.

If the nerve gas is loaded into aerial bombs, and if the bombs make it on to planes and are fired, what happens if they are intercepted and explode in mid-air either by the Iron Dome anti-missile defense system, or by Patriot missiles?

Kedar told Arutz Sheva in an exclusive interview Thursday afternoon that if the gas is in an aerial bomb, it is “very easy to deal with. The Air Force knows very well how to deal with such things. An aerial bomb is a traditional weapon,” he said, even when it is carrying a payload of sarin. "Missiles are much faster,” he added, “but still they too can be dealt with.”

The aerial chemical weapons threat, however, is one reason Turkey has turned to NATO for assistance, Kedar said. “This is why Turkey is deploying Patriots along the border with Syria,” he pointed out.

If an aerial bomb bearing a payload of sarin explodes in mid-air, Kedar said, “it is much less dangerous than if it blows up on your head. Sarin needs to be within a certain range, and at a certain concentration, in order to be effective.”

Among other effects, sarin causes burns and blindness.

Kedar added that although the U.S.-based NBC News network had reported the nerve gas had been loaded into the bombs, “I do believe that military intelligence organizations know more about what is going on, and take measures to secure things in an appropriate manner.”

The intelligence veteran said that behind the scenes, “things are being done” and that it is “good that professional people are dealing with this. They have all the information and are taking decisions in accordance with the changing situation.”

In response to a fierce warning from the American government, Syria's foreign ministry issued a statement on Monday saying it would not use such weapons against its own people. It was the second statement of its kind to be made in less than six months; Syria had broadcast a similar assurance in July.

However, by nightfall, the Foreign Ministry's spokesman, Jihad al-Makdissi, had fled the country, allegedly first to Beirut and from there to London, where the rest of his family allegedly had preceded him. According to Beirut-based Al-Manar television, linked to the Iranian-backed Hizbullah terrorist organization, Makdissi had been sacked by President Bashar al-Assad for making inaccurate statements that implied – or revealed – the presence of chemical weapons in Syria in the first place.

Tags: Mordechai Kedar ,Chemical Weapons ,Syrian civil war ,sarin ,nerve gas

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• Netanyahu: Israel Monitoring Syrian Chemical Weapons
• Obama Warns Assad Against Using Chemical Weapons
• Report: Syria Combining Chemicals for Sarin Gas
• Report: Israel Asked Jordan for OK to Bomb Syrian WMDs
• Syria Vows Not to Use Chemical Weapons on Syrians
• Report: New Activity at Syrian Chemical Weapon Sites
• Syrian Rebels Kill Top Ruling Party Official

Sunni Leaders Gaining Clout in Mideast

The New York Times

Mohammed Saber/European Pressphoto Agency

A Palestinian woman in Gaza City on Tuesday walked amid the rubble left from eight days of fighting that ended in a cease-fire.

By NEIL MacFARQUHAR     Published: November 27, 2012 

RAMALLAH, West Bank — For years, the United States and its Middle East allies were challenged by the rising might of the so-called Shiite crescent, a political and ideological alliance backed by Iran that linked regional actors deeply hostile to Israel and the West.

But uprising, wars and economics have altered the landscape of the region, paving the way for a new axis to emerge, one led by a Sunni Muslim alliance of Egypt, Qatar and Turkey. That triumvirate played a leading role in helping end the eight-day conflict between Israel and Gaza, in large part by embracing Hamas and luring it further away from the Iran-Syria-Hezbollah fold, offering diplomatic clout and promises of hefty aid.

For the United States and Israel, the shifting dynamics offer a chance to isolate a resurgent Iran, limit its access to the Arab world and make it harder for Tehran to arm its agents on Israel’s border. But the gains are also tempered, because while these Sunni leaders are willing to work with Washington, unlike the mullahs in Tehran, they also promote a radical religious-based ideology that has fueled anti-Western sentiment around the region. 

Hamas — which received missiles from Iran that reached Israel’s northern cities — broke with the Iranian axis last winter, openly backing the rebellion against the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad. But its affinity with the Egypt-Qatar-Turkey axis came to fruition this fall. 

“That camp has more assets that it can share than Iran — politically, diplomatically, materially,” said Robert Malley, the Middle East program director for the International Crisis Group. “The Muslim Brotherhood is their world much more so than Iran.” 

The Gaza conflict helps illustrate how Middle Eastern alliances have evolved since the Islamist wave that toppled one government after another beginning in January 2011. Iran had no interest in a cease-fire, while Egypt, Qatar and Turkey did. 

But it is the fight for Syria that is the defining struggle in this revived Sunni-Shiite duel. The winner gains a prized strategic crossroads. 

For now, it appears that that tide is shifting against Iran, there too, and that it might well lose its main Arab partner, Syria. The Sunni-led opposition appears in recent days to have made significant inroads against the government, threatening the Assad family’s dynastic rule of 40 years and its long alliance with Iran. If Mr. Assad falls, that would render Iran and Hezbollah, which is based in Lebanon, isolated as a Shiite Muslim alliance in an ever more sectarian Middle East, no longer enjoying a special street credibility as what Damascus always tried to sell as “the beating heart of Arab resistance.” 

If the shifts seem to leave the United States somewhat dazed, it is because what will emerge from all the ferment remains obscure. 

Clearly the old leaders Washington relied on to enforce its will, like President Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, are gone or at least eclipsed. But otherwise confusion reigns in terms of knowing how to deal with this new paradigm, one that could well create societies infused with religious ideology that Americans find difficult to accept. The new reality could be a weaker Iran, but a far more religiously conservative Middle East that is less beholden to the United States. 

Already, Islamists have been empowered in Egypt, Libya and Tunisia, while Syria’s opposition is being led by Sunni insurgents, including a growing number identified as jihadists, some identified as sympathizing with Al Qaeda. Qatar, which hosts a major United States military base, also helps finance Islamists all around the region. 

In Egypt, President Mohamed Morsi resigned as a member of the Muslim Brotherhood only when he became head of state, but he still remains closely linked with the movement. Turkey, the model for many of them, has kept strong relations with Washington while diminishing the authority of generals who were longstanding American allies. 

“The United States is part of a landscape that has shifted so dramatically,” said Mr. Malley of the International Crisis Group. “It is caught between the displacement of the old moderate-radical divide by one that is defined by confessional and sectarian loyalty.” 

The emerging Sunni axis has put not only Shiites at a disadvantage, but also the old school leaders who once allied themselves with Washington. 

The old guard members in the Palestinian Authority are struggling to remain relevant at a time when their failed 20-year quest to end the Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands makes them seem both anachronistic and obsolete. 

“Hamas has always argued that it is the future of the changes in the region because of its revolutionary nature, that it is part of the religious political groups who have been winning the revolutions,” said Ghassan Khatib, an official at Birzeit University and former government spokesman. 

The Palestinian Authority’s leader, Mahmoud Abbas, will address the United Nations General Assembly on Thursday to request that it recognize Palestine as a nonmember state. The resolution is expected to pass, but analysts view it as too little, too late in the face of the new regional mood. 

At a busy Ramallah bakery, that mood was readily evident.

“If this situation continues, so what if Abu Mazen gets recognition, so what?” said Salah Abdel Hamad, 50, a teacher, referring to Mr. Abbas. “It will not bring any substantial change.” 

The bakery’s owner dared hang in the window a mourning poster for Ahmed al-Jabari, the Hamas military chief whose assassination by Israel helped to set off the latest conflict. 

“The resistance,” said Tha’er al-Baw, 23, referring to Hamas, “proved that they are much better than the negotiating camp. In the days of Arafat, we used to think peace could be achieved through negotiations, but nobody believes this now.” 

Even before the conflict, the emir of Qatar visited Gaza, promising $400 million in aid. Qatar did not donate that sum just to have its investment bombed to smithereens every few years. 

As Egypt’s president, Mr. Mubarak, who reviled the Muslim Brotherhood, was basically content to have Israel periodically smash Hamas, effectively the Brotherhood’s Gaza cousin. 

Mr. Morsi changed little from Mr. Mubarak’s playbook, though his tone shifted. He sent his prime minister to lift morale. Ten foreign ministers, including those of Turkey and the newly Islamist government in Tunisia, also part of the new axis, visited Gaza during the fighting. 

Egypt, Qatar and Turkey all want a more quiet, stable Middle East, which they have said repeatedly requires an end to the Israeli occupation. But the new Islamist governments do not talk about a two-state solution much, so analysts believe some manner of long-term truce is more likely. 

“As Hamas moves closer to Turkey, Egypt and Qatar, it will be weaker as a ‘resistance’ movement because those three countries do not want a resistance movement,” said Talal Atrissi, a Lebanese academic specializing in Arab-Iranian relations. 

Those countries will not supply arms, however, so Hamas will maintain contacts with Tehran. Khaled Meshal, the Hamas leader, told CNN that ties are “not as it used to be in the past, but there is no severing of relations.” 

Where Hamas and Hezbollah were once allies, the fact that they are now at times at loggerheads illustrates the shift to the new Sunni axis. 

A Western diplomat seeking to explain the changes recently drew a cross through the region, the meeting point representing Syria. Along the East-West line, he wrote “febrile crescent,” a play on the traditional “Fertile Crescent” used to describe the stretch of the Middle East where civilization began. The febrile crescent represents the volatile fault line between Sunnis and Shiites, with Syria the prize. 

The other axis was labeled “Sunni Struggles,” representing the wrestling within the dominant Muslim sect over what governments and what ideology will emerge triumphant from the current political tumult. The deepest change, of course, is that the era of dictators seems to be closing. 

“These are populist governments, which are much more attuned to the domestic public opinion than were previous regimes,” said Rashid Khalidi, an Arab studies professor at Columbia University. “Before the Arab revolutions you had a frozen situation where it was easy to see how things would go.”