Revenge, Slaughter - Victory

Syria, in the good graces of the Soviet Union circa 1980s was given assistance in developing its store of chemical weapons; immeasurable help in stockpiling ingredients, working out how they could best weaponize aircraft, ballistic missiles and artillery rockets.  It's now generally agreed that Syria's chemical weapons' stockpile, stored in 50 towns and cities stands at approximately 1,000 tonnes. 

Satellite surveillance has recently revealed the regime has loaded mixed nerve agents into aerial bombs on Syrian airfields.

Of the chemicals, it is believed that sarin was the chemical put into abeyant action.  Its constituents are stored separately under normal circumstances, so it is inactive until the chemical components are mixed together.  When they are mixed the result becomes a deadly weapon - a weapon of mass destruction.  With a shelf life of weeks, a month perhaps, until it becomes inert, no longer active and useful.

Sarin activated means a decision has been reached.  Not a final decision perhaps, but a decision nevertheless.  One that can result in a stand-down of intention, or one that can be invoked to create a deadly menace, when used.  The threat is considered to be credible enough that Turkey has called urgently upon NATO to install defensive Patriot missiles on its border with Syria, and that has been accomplished.

Israel states that it has the defensive means to protect itself.  The regime, while not denying, yet not confirming it has chemical stockpiles, pledges on its honour that it would never, under any circumstances, use them on their own people, Syrians.  It would, however, not hesitate to use them on enemies, those who pose a threat to the existence of the regime.

Should that chemical be unleashed, its release into the atmosphere would affect countless human beings.  Sarin is extremely dangerous to human health and longevity.  Even at low atmospheric concentrations it is capable of penetrating the skin, the largest organ of the body.  It attacks the nervous system; unless treated immediately with an antidote, convulsions ensue; coma and death follow.

The Assad regime claims it is being subjected to "psychological warfare", that the Patriot missiles NATO placed along its border with Turkey are meant to intimidate it, to stop it from battling the rebel army the "terrorists".  The placement of those missiles is about as close to intervention in the civil war in Syria as the West is interested in investing in. 

No one has any appetite to intervene in the struggle between the Alawite regime and the Free Syrian Army.

Most intelligence experts believe that President al-Assad's reign is just about at the end of its tether.  The 'events on the ground are accelerating'.  The regime's opposition has taken increasing possession of many key areas critical to the survival of the government they are determined to unseat.  President al-Assad's most senior Christian ally, foreign ministry spokesman Jihad Makdissi has defected.

France and Britain have supported the new opposition alliance as the rightful voice of the new Syria.  The United States, stung once too often, and acutely aware of the Islamists and al-Qaeda-affiliated militias that have joined the rebels have no wish to support those elements.  They know what happened to the weapons supplied to the emerging Afghan Taliban, just as they understand what happened to those supplied to the Libyan rebels.

The chemical weapons stockpiles are of major concern; their vulnerability to being taken into the hands of terror groups, of Hezbollah, even Hamas concerns everyone.  Destruction or removal of the stocks would be ideal, neutralizing a dreadful threat.  Ideally intervention should come from a combined force reflecting the surrounding Arab/Muslim states' responsibilities.

In the brief interim of whatever will be revealed to be reality, suspense reigns.  Until Bashar al-Assad is removed from office and from the country, or he is assassinated by someone close to him, fulfilling his desire to remain, to die in his country if need be.  It is needed.

And then another problem will face the watching world.  Once the Alawite regime is down and out and the opposition has prevailed, what then?  As has occurred elsewhere in the Middle East when a bloody tyrant has been removed, Islamist forces have moved in, with their view of puritanical Islam, their oppressive rulings, Sharia law, and invariably, revenge upon those whom they view as enemies of pure Islam.

The minority Shia population protected by their Shia Alawite regime will be considered fair game to the exultant Sunni conquerers.  The Syrian Christian population will be another target.  And the Druze, although not allowed citizenship under the Alawite government, did not fight with the rebels but sometimes against them.