Roiling Friction in the Middle East

"[The security of the holy site is] a red line, [the kingdom]will not hesitate to take the necessary and deterrent measures [against the Yemeni group]."

"This hostile attempt will also remain a black mark in the record of violations by the extremist terrorist Houthi militia, as a deliberate act intended to provoke the feelings of millions of Muslims."

Turki al-Maliki, spokesperson, Saudi-led Coalition Forces 

 

"[Our targets were Saudi oil facilities and military bases] far removed from the holy places."

"The fabrications and lies propagated by the criminal Saudi regime regarding targeting Mecca cannot deceive anyone."

"There is no threat whatsoever from Yemen to the holy sites."

 Yahya Saree, Houthi military spokesman

 

"Any aggression against Islamic holy sites [would be considered] a condemned act [but] a mere claim of intercepting a drone en route to Mecca cannot constitute grounds for accusing a specific party."

"[The Houthis] explicitly denied [the attempted drone attack]."

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei

 

"[The conflict is on the] brink of further escalation and] dialogue and diplomacy remain the only sustainable path to peace." 

"There are no words sufficient to express the depth of pain and sorrow we feel toward this unforgivable and shameful deed."

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif  

Aerial view of the Grand Mosque in Mecca during hajj, May 2026, Saudi Arabia. Saudi Press Agency/Reuters

 

"For the Houthis, as a religiously dominant organization, this would be catastrophic for them—to target Mecca. It’s a lose-lose for them."

"The Houthis are using drones and homemade missiles, so there is a real possibility that the Houthi drone basically misfired."

"[Saudi Arabia] is trying to say that the Houthis are not just waging a political and geo-economic war against them, they are trying to target the most sacred religious site in Islam, and that resonates deeply." 

"Both sides are now engaged not only in military hostilities, but also for the hearts and minds of Arabs and Muslims." 

Fawaz Gerges, professor in international relations, London School of Economics  

Yemen's Houthis were accused by the Saudi-led coalition of targeting the holy city of Mecca. The Muslim world exploded in outrage. Riyadh's statement that it had shot down a drone heading toward Mecca, was rejected as a 'lie' by the Houthis. Renewed violence between the Houthis and Yemen's internationally recognized government backed by Saudi Arabia has pulled both Saudi Arabia and the Houthis back into a conflict situation, with the Houthis once again blockading maritime shipment in the Red Sea, specifically targeting Saudi ships. 

 

The entire Red Sea coast of Yemen was seized a week earlier by the Houthis, along with the vital shipping artery for Saudi oil, the narrow Bab al-Mandab Strait, which Saudi Arabia had turned to as an alternative to the IRGC-blocked Strait of Hormuz as its preferred shipping route. This is not the first time the Houthis were accused of launching attacks toward Mecca, in an earlier conflict. Vowing retaliation, the Saudi coalition warned then that the security of holy sites represented a 'red line', and it has now been reiterated.

 

A commercial vessel is anchored off Yemen's coast at Bab al-Mandab, where Houthi militants have seized new islands, further threatening the world’s oil supply. Photograph: AFP/Getty Images

 

During this year's pilgrimage a video was released by the Saudi defence ministry of advanced air defence batteries positioned on Mecca's outskirts, now home to a large number of security forces responsible for crowd control and security. The 57-member Organization of Islamic Cooperation condemned the "heinous attacks ... against the city of Mecca and the Madinah region", after Saudi Arabia issued brief alerts of potential attacks in Mecca and across parts of the south.

 

A wave of ballistic missile and drone attacks launched from Yemen, was the precursor of the alerts. The Houthis have controlled swaths of northern Yemen for years, and in July a large-scale offensive was launched against government forces. The Arabian Peninsula's poorest country has seen 82,000 Yemeni civilians flee their homes in the past month, according to the United Nations. The government, according to the UN Yemeni permanent representative, was fighting to restore "national institutions across every inch of their land", calling on the international community to take action against the Houthis.

 

Muslim pilgrims completing Hajj rituals at Islam's holiest site in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, on May 30, 2026.  Ali Atmaca—Anadolu via Getty Images

 

At the same time, Saudi Arabia and Egypt call for the Red Sea navigation freedom to be restored. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi have jointly called for a unified move "ensuring the freedom and security of maritime navigation" through Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab, linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden.

 

It was reported in the U.S. media that the Saudi Crown Prince had personally requested that U.S. President Donald Trump intervene with U.S. forces, a request that was rejected. According to the Houthis, no threat exists to navigation in Bab al-Mandab other than for Saudi vessels. Nonetheless the prospect of potential attacks in the waterway will suffice to ensure its transit appears unattractive to shippers.

 

Meanwhile, disruption in the strait, where the Red Sea represents a gateway to the Suez Canal, which Cairo depends upon for critical foreign revenue is critically threatened, while Saudi Arabia will see its oil revenues collapse with no way to ship its oil to markets abroad, resulting once again in the rise of oil prices globally.  

 

 

A Victory of American Might And Capitulation

"Having failed to achieve his goals in the joint U.S.-Israel war on Iran, Trump is now attempting to disguise the setback as a victory."-Israeli military aggression."

"Enemy forces failed to attain any of their stated objectives and did not approach Iranian territorial waters."

Tehran Times 

 

"[The] immediate and permanent [end to military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon, paving the way to a] final deal [in the next 60 days] extendable with mutual consent."

"[The U.S. Treasury to waive sanctions on Iranian oil exports and the two countries to] refrain from interfering in each other's internal affairs."

Memorandum of Understanding 

A mural in Tehran depicting negotiators, Anadolu via Getty

 

The Iranian regime is ecstatic; their not-without-reason interpretation of the Memorandum of Understanding is a surrender by the United States to the greater bargaining power and wisdom of the Islamic Republic whose tactical brilliance in closing the Strait of Hormuz sent U.S. President Donald Trump's triumphant self-congratulatory messages to the world in a tail-spin of second-think. "Oil-down" this master negotiator acknowledged as he became complicit with the Iranian regime's inexorable hold on power.

 

Sinking the Iranian navy, bombing its air defences and nuclear and missile sites was a clear military victory advantaging the United States over an obdurate, resilient enemy. The death of the totalitarian mastermind Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was a triumph of decapitation, or it would have been in any ordinary theocracy that was not backed by an Islamist-obsessed Republican Guard Corps, having at its service men schooled in a death cult subservient to a hidden Mahdi soon to arrive and demolish undeserving humanity.

 

Then came the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, the attacks on Gulf oligarchies and the West reeling under an economic shock and rising energy prices, and the game suddenly turned sideways. Hesitating to invade and destroy the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the remnants of the regime's senior figures the American President held out the white flag of surrender while declaring its military victory, and its reconsideration over replacing the regime to release the Iranian people from its totalitarian bondage.

 

Donald Trump addresses the media at the G7 summit in Evian, France, 17 June 2026. Photograph: Mandel Ngan/AFP/Getty Images

 

The vaunted Memorandum of Understanding which excluded Israel from the partnership between the United States and the Jewish state in reality unleashed Israel from the unbreakable bond of mutual trust, friendship and comradely military functionality. Israel lacks the appeal of wealthy Gulf states whose gilded pomp and oil production figure so large in world prosperity. All the more so when one such as Qatar can bedazzle the U.S. President with its generous shower of lucre and impressive gift-giving.

 

The MOU's "the Islamic Republic of Iran reaffirms that it shall not procure or develop nuclear weapons", and "the disposition of stockpiled enriched material" will be resolved by the International Atomic Energy supervising the process need not be questioned for the surface relief it promises, with the Islamic Republic whose word of honour has become a metaphor for conniving, threatening psychopathy. 

 

"The Islamic Republic of Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, and the United States of America will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region", according to the Memorandum of Understanding. Why would anyone dare question the reliability of such grandiloquent promises, unless they have had the misfortune of being on the receiving end of Tehran's ballistic missiles?

 

As a reward for its "compliance", the U.S. is prepared to develop a $300-billion plan for "the reconstruction and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran" and it will "terminate all types of sanctions", unfreeze Iran's bank accounts, and allow Iranian oil to flow, relinquishing control of the Strait of Hormuz to Iran and Oman.  Truly a victory for the ages.

 

Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, Anadolu via Getty

 

The Sting of the I.R.G.C. 'Mosquito Boats'

"The Islamic Republican Guard Corps navy works more like a guerrilla force at sea."

"It is focused on asymmetrical warfare, especially in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz."

"So instead of relying on big warships and classic naval battles, it depends on hit-and-run attacks."

Saeid Golkar, Guards expert, political science professor, University of Tennessee, Chattanooga

 

"When it is very bumpy, they [armed forces onboard] cannot shoot."

"[They are also ill-equipped to go head to head with a ​warship, and would likely suffer] very heavy casualties [​in any direct assault on one]."

"Even if they tried to saturate the ship’s defences by attacking from multiple directions, they would be extremely vulnerable to the air support that would be called in."

"It is going to be ​much harder to eliminate ⁠the small boat threat than it was to destroy Iran’s larger naval vessels, which were big targets that were relatively easy to find and track and, at most, only had a limited ability to defend themselves from air attack." 

Jeremy Binnie, Middle East specialist, defence intelligence company Janes 

The IRGC speed boats are fast, light, and easily replaceable. NurPhoto via Getty Images

It all began when recreational boats were mounted with rocket-propelled grenades or machine guns, when Iran first began using small boats that were fast, maneuverable, and deadly when patrolling the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf. Those recreational craft underwent a  transformation when a range of specially designed small boats, along with miniature submarines and marine drones were built to the IRGC specifications, over the years. That 'mosquito fleet' of small boats has become a real and present threat in the Strait as a consequence of the U.S.-Israeli conflict in Iran.

 

The flotilla of small, fast boats whose purpose by the IRGC has been to harass local and international shipping through the Gulf, has turned now to threatening and firing upon global shipping in the Strait of Hormuz during the recent face-off between the U.S. and the Islamic Republic of Iran -- or what's left of it, aside from the IRGC. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is separate and apart from the regular Navy of Iran, which had been struck a cataclysmic blow in the opening days of the aerial bombardment. 

 

Over 90 percent of Iran's navy's fleet was destroyed, according to U.S. General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. They all, including the country's major warships, were sunk and sit now on the ocean's bottom. At the same time, an estimated 50 percent of the fast attack boats belonging to the Guards were sunk. Estimates of the total number of these small ships prior to the U.S. sinking of the fleet ranged from hundreds to thousands. They are still not now in short supply. 

 

Arrival of new shipment of IRGC fastboats. Photo via Mehdi H

 

The size of the boats make them mostly invisible on satellite images from where they're moored alongside piers, where the  excavation of deep caves along the rocky coastline shelters them, prepared for deployment at a moment's notice. During the current conflict, at least 20 vessels were attacked by the 'mosquito fleet', according to the International Maritime Agency. Analysts consider the attacks to have been by drones fired from mobile launchers on land.

 

As for the small boat arsenal which poses a major threat to commercial shipping both in the Gulf and the Strait, "It remains a disruptive force. You never quite knew what they were up to and what their intentions were", commented Admiral Gary Roughead, retired chief of U.S. Naval Operations. "The IRGC navy has always believed that it is at the forefront of the confrontation with the Great Satan", added specialist on the Guards navy, Farzin Nadimi from the Washington Institute think tank.

 

According to experts, these small boats can reach speeds of over 100 knots. Larger, more sophisticated warships were also recently developed by the Guards, and they too were targeted when the U.S. bombardments focused on bombing Iran's naval fleet as well as its fleet of warplanes. The largest drone carrier, the Shahid Bagheri, a converted container ship able to launch anti-ship missiles, was also hit by U.S. air strikes.

 

It is the swarms of small boats that pose an ongoing threat to commercial vessels which have no defences against such attacks. U.S. warships, on the other hand, can counter a potential swam of small boats with their high-caliber cannons and additional weaponry.  

 

60 percent of IRGC fast boats still threaten shipping lanes: WSJ

 

Sudan : An Abandoned Crisis

International Rescue Committee

 

"Even before the war in Sudan erupted in April 2023, the country was already experiencing a severe humanitarian crisis that left 15.8 million people in need of aid. Now, three years of war have drastically worsened these conditions, displacing approximately 14 million people and leaving 33.7 million people—two-thirds of the population—in need of humanitarian support."

"The country’s food system has been pushed to the brink, with millions of families now surviving on just one meal a day, or less."

"Sudan is the largest humanitarian crisis in the world in terms of number of people who need humanitarian aid. It is also the largest and fastest displacement crisis."
International Rescue Committee 

 

As Sudan marks three years of war, MSF teams continue to treat people whose lives have been devastated by the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

A lack of basic services and constrained humanitarian access are compounding people's suffering.

The warring parties must protect civilians and be held accountable for their violations, and the international community must use diplomatic pressure to prevent further crimes. 

Medicins Sans Frontieres  

Patient Saidal Altaher, 2 months old, being treated for malnutrition at the pediatric hospital stabilization center in Port Sudan on Wednesday.  Bernat Armangue / AP

 

Described as the world's largest humanitarian challenge in terms of displacement and hunger, Sudan is suffering a crisis of abandonment with the world's attention turning to the Middle East and the standoff in Iran, and its blockade of the Hormuz Strait. In Sudan, 13 million people have been forced by the threat and violence of a bloody conflict to flee their homes, becoming internally displaced. Food and medicines are scarce and diseases like cholera are running rampant. 

 

The number of  dead from the conflict stands at 59,000 with 6,000 having perished over three days alone, as the RSF (paramilitary Rapid Support Forces) bulled their way through the Darfur outpost of el-Fasher in October, an offensive that the UN considers alike "the defining characteristics of genocide". Black Darfurians once again in the rifle sights of the horsed Arab Janjaweed as they were in the early 2000s.

 

Severe acute malnutrition is set to afflict 800,000 people in parts of Sudan, according to the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification. Two of every three Sudanese require assistance, according to the United Nations. Health facilities have been impacted to the point where only 63 percent remain fully or partially functional to deal with the conflict's wounded and emerging disease outbreaks. 

 

Denise Brown, the UN's top official in Sudan, criticizing the international community for its failure to press for the end to the conflict, stating: "A plea from me: Please don't call this the forgotten crisis. I'm referring to this as an abandoned crisis", she corrected. 

 

People fleeing conflict in Sudan's Darfur risked being hit by drone strikes   Reuters

 

Following the deposed dictator Omar al-Bashir in 2019, a power struggle emerged between the Sudanese military under General Abdel-Fattah Burhan, and RSF commander General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, who was initially Burhan's deputy at the ruling sovereign council of Sudan. Sudanese "have become powerless and are subjected to foreign dictates", claimed a Sudanese journalist and researcher.

 

Germany undertook to host a  conference in Berlin, welcoming governments, UN agencies and aid groups to take part, with a goal to rally donors to assist in funding strained humanitarian responses and to "promote an immediate ceasefire", according to the German Development Ministry. For its troubles, the Khartoum government condemned the conference as an 'unacceptable' interference on Sudan's internal affairs. 

 

The Sudanese military has control over the country's north, east and central regions, its oil refineries and pipelines, and Red Sea ports. The RSF and its allies control Darfur and the region at the border with South Sudan. Regions that both include oilfields and gold mines. Egypt supports the Sudan military, and the United Arab Emirates has been accused by the UN of providing arms to the RSF, which it emphatically denies. 

 

In the three years of conflict, widespread atrocities are known to have occurred;  rampant sexual violence in gang rapes and mass killings, among them. According to the WHO, hospitals, ambulances and medical workers have been attacked, claiming over 2,000 have been killed.  Most atrocities have been placed at the feet of the RSF and the Janjaweed, notorious for atrocities committed in the early 2000s against Black Sudanese farming communities. 

 

Sudanese army soldiers sitting atop a parked tank after their capture of a base used by the RSF, after the rival paramilitary group evacuated from the Salha area of Omdurman, the twin city of Sudan's capital, in May 2025.  Ebrahim Hamid / AFP via Getty Images

 

 

 

Lebanon At A Crossroad ... Do Or Die

"They're going to respond anytime, anywhere."

"When the Israelis find these guys, they just take them out, so you have two or three a week that are whacked."

"If  you're a soldier in the Lebanese army earning $300 a month, you have to have three jobs. You're an Uber drive, a barista and a soldier."

"So you go knock on a Shia door on Monday and say, 'I'm sorry, man, can I go into your basement and take out the AK-47s?' And you're risking your life."

"[Still], we've got to have just one army." 

US. ambassador to Turkey/special envoy to Lebanon and Syria, Tom Barrack

 

"We have an unchecked player acting as a hegemon under a leader, Netanyahu, growing stronger by the day."

"At the same time there's a new generation across the world that can no longer tolerate Israeli behaviour."

"To monitor what goes on around you, you don't need to be on top of a 700-meter hill with binoculars or a Galileo telescope!"

"Israel has satellite imagery and drones and balloons with the most sophisticated cameras."

"The Israelis say they can't leave unless Hezbollah disarms, and Hezbollah says how can we disarm as long as the Israelis don't?"

Nawaf Salam, Lebanese prime minister 

Hezbollah terrorist organization announced the death of its member Hassan Abdul Karim Shahrour, eliminated in an IAF strike, September 2025, Lebanon strike on Saturday on the Khardali-Marjayoun road in southern Lebanon

 

They prey on Israel, their goal is the Jewish state's obliteration. Hezbollah is an auxiliary force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. It is a creature of the Islamic Republic of Iran, one whose reputation as a formidable foe of Israel was a well-earned reputation. Iran has quite a number of proxy militias, among them Iraq's many Shia militias whose fealty to Iran is  unquestionable. There is Yemen's Houthis with their Red Sea exploits in maritime piracy, upending a significant part of the globe's shipping industry. And there is Hamas, which though Sunni, is on the same dedicated track of totalitarian Islamofascism.

 

At a time when the Israel Defense Forces were wholly focused on destroying the attack capabilities of Gaza's Hamas following the mass terrorist atrocities in southern Israel that devastated kibbutz farming communities, Hezbollah felt it would be timely to attack on Israel's north from Lebanon, and the Houthis too felt the time was right to lob their own missiles into Israel. Missiles from Gaza, from Lebanon and from Yemen. Oh yes, let us not overlook those that were sent by Iran itself, which persuaded Israel it was time to give Iran a good drubbing.

 

One tiny sliver of a country amidst a wide field of deadly adversaries. Israeli ingenuity believes in taking its enemies off guard and it did just that with a cunning scheme of explosive pagers and walkie-talkies reminded Hezbollah and by extension others hostile to Israel's presence on its ancestral Judean geography

that lethality comes in many forms, unexpected and quite effective in delivering a chastening demoralizing message. When Hezbollah began lobbing missiles from the Golan Heights into Israeli towns below they were guaranteed a response and it targeted southern Lebanon held by Hezbollah. 

 

 

Iran, its subsidiaries and its powerfully persuasive, glad-handing ally Qatar, have been busy frantically plotting the rescue of their partially emasculated terror groups, anxious to grasp any opportunity to strike additional blows at Israel. And if Israel is unapproachable, then why not strike at Jews living in the West whose governments prefer not to invest themselves in the security of the Jews among them? Islamists are exceedingly fond of striking Israel and by extension Jews anywhere during times of major Jewish holidays when attention is elsewhere than security for the targets.

 

And so it was that for Hanukkah of 2025 Australia was the chosen site for yet another atrocity, killing and maiming and shocking and traumatizing a population of Australian Jews whose leaders have pleaded with their government to respond forcefully and within existing laws to ensure security for all their citizens, Jews included. But then, there is a problem, one linked inexorably to lax security, indifference to Jewish concerns and above all, an immigration flood of Palestinians -- including Hezbollah and Hamas operatives and other Muslims from across the Middle East and North Africa; an experience familiar to all Western democracies where sheer numbers and politics collide.

 

Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam's position on Hezbollah is a disgrace. The terrorist group has destroyed Lebanon, taking advantage of a bloody civil war and a weakened alliance between Sunni and Shia Muslims, Christians and Druze. In the vacuum of the failed alliance, the presence of Palestinians, the UN peacekeeping mission in the 1980s, Israel's withdrawal once Yasser Arafat and Fatah were forced to leave and would no longer attack Israel from Lebanon, the IRGC shaped, trained and armed Hezbollah whose first suicide mission was to blow up the U.S. marine barracks in Lebanon.

 

At this point in Lebanon's history with a diminished Hezbollah licking its wounds from its conflict with Israel the opportunity is there for the Lebanese government to exert itself in the disarming of Hezbollah. Something that the government has vowed it would accomplish for decades, with little success. All the more so with Iran steadily providing greater and more sophisticated munitions to the Shia terrorist group grasping Lebanon in its stranglehold.

 

U.S. Department of War, photo of 1983 Hezbollah destruction of Lebanone-based marine barracks

 

Hezbollah can still count on tens of thousands of dedicated operatives. Like Hamas, following its 'peace agreement' with Israel to halt the active conflict, it has used that time to regroup, recruit and rearm. And like Hamas, although that peace agreement included the stipulation that both terror groups disarm, neither has, and neither intends to. In a recent address by Naim Qassem, the leader appointed to take the place of assassinated Hassan Nasrallah, he said: "The enemy is sill the same enemy, and the perpetrator of the massacre (of his predecessor) is the same. So how can we abandon weapons? How?"

 

His followers may be rapt at his presentation, feeling justified in supporting a group whose purpose is the annihilation of Israel, and whose rationale cannot stand the scrutiny of cause-and-effect, in that it is not Israel that attacks Lebanon or Hezbollah, but Hezbollah whose pledge is to destroy Israel and to that end commit endless attacks. To which Israel responds as would any country attacked by hostile entities acting as proxies for the theocratic state of Iran. 

 

Foundation for Defense of Democracies

 

 

 

Israel's Relentless Drive to Destroy Hamas

"It is time for the countries of the world to take seriously our unwavering commitment to bring back all our hostages home and defeat the enemy."

"Nothing will stop us from fighting to free our hostages, who have been held in brutal Hamas captivity for 527 days."

"We will show no mercy against our enemies while our hostages languish in Hamas terror tunnels."

Danny Danon, Israeli Ambassador to the United Nations

Israeli troops in southern Gaza. Pic: IDF handout

Extensive strikes have been conducted against Hamas targets in the Gaza Strip by the Israeli military on Monday, negating a ceasefire that had exacerbated the pain of Israel's hostage families in the terrorists' hollow gestures of complying with the rules of hostage return while mocking the process as a generous gesture on the part of the Palestinian terrorists. The 'ceasefire' that had given Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad and other such groups the opportunity to recruit, rearm and reaffirm their ironclad intention to continue planning and executing attacks on Israel for which the October 7, 2023 invasion and savagery remains their model.

 

In essence, the 'ceasefire' had ended itself when Israeli intelligence analyzed the intention of Hamas leaders to carry on with their death mission for Israel, leading to the inescapable conclusion that the only fitting response to the situation would be a return to Israel's original goal of wiping out the entirety of the Hamas organization; fighters, leaders, weapons stocks, organizational capability. The essentially vital target, the removal of the Hamas leadership.

 

To that end, it was confirmed by the Israel Defense Forces that "the Hamas prime minister and a senior government figure in the Gaza Strip", Essam al-Dalis was among a number of senior terrorists eliminated in the early stages of the campaign. As is usual for the IDF, a vital warning had been issued Tuesday urging residents of Gaza within specific areas to immediately evacuate, as the Israeli forces' operations intensified. 

Civilians were called  upon by IDF spokesperson Avichay Adrace, to relocate to designated shelters located in western Gaza City and Khan Yunis to avoid becoming casualties of the attacks. Citing local Gaza health officials, the Associated Press reported that over 400 Palestinians had been killed in the overnight airstrikes. No one can actually be assured of the veracity of any such claims made by either Hamas or any of its operating arms. Hamas, in any event, reporting on casualties makes no differentiation between civilians and its terrorist operatives.

 

Pic: IDF handout

"[An Israeli official] claimed that in recent days during the ceasefire Hamas has been preparing to carry out new attacks against Israel and has taken steps to rearm."

"The official said the IDF kept the operational plan top secret and within a relatively small circle in order to surprise Hamas."

Axios Report

 

"[The IDF is] attacking targets of the Hamas terrorist organization throughout the Gaza Strip in order to achieve the objectives of the war as they have been determined by the political echelon including the release of all of our hostages, the living and the deceased."

"Israel will, from now on, act against Hamas with increasing military strength."

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's Office statement

The attack coincided with the Muslim holy month of Ramadan. Somewhat similar to Egypt and Syria attacking Israel in 1973 on Yom Kippur, the Judaic holy Day of Atonement. There is an interpretation that this could signal a full resumption of the war, incited by Hamas when terrorists invaded southern Israel on October 7, 2023, thousands of terrorists primed to enact a scene straight out of Hell, complete with mass rape, mutilation, torching of family homes with the residents huddled for safety in their 'safe rooms', where the mostly civilian population of southern Israel's farming kibbutzim were targeted for annihilation.

 

Hamas terrorists stand in formation ahead of a hostage release in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza Strip, Feb. 8, 2025. (AP Photo/Abdel Kareem Hana)

Hamas's plans included the hostage-taking of families, the elderly, infants, teens, women, foreign farm workers and Israeli soldiers. Even the dead were considered useful pawns as hostages, bundled off with the terrified living hostages to the extensive tunnel systems of Gaza, to be confined in dark, dank underground cells without natural light, breathing foetid air, and experiencing a lack of adequate food and water and medical supplies. The remaining two dozen hostages believed to still be alive, remain in terrorist hands.

 

"We are shocked, angry and terrified by the deliberate dismantling of the process to return our loved ones from the terrible captivity of Hamas", mourned the Hostages and Missing Families Forum. And one can only commiserate with their anguish, hoping against hope that their loved ones will somehow be returned to them. Hamas enjoys its sadistic cat-and-mouse games with vulnerable and helpless captives.

 

While the United States and Israel have been stepping up attacks across the region this week, the retaliatory campaign against Hamas is being carried out with a view to bringing Israel's goal of eradicating the terrorist group entirely, closer to accomplishment as an end-game goal. In concert with the U.S. launching strikes against Yemen's Houthis spurred on by Iran, Israel has targeted Iran's terrorist proxies in Lebanon and Syria.

 

Israeli soldiers patrol a street in northern Gaza on Wednesday. The Israeli military launched a new ground offensive in Gaza, a day after Israel 'broke a ceasefire' with a punishing series of airstrikes. Jack Guez/AFP via Getty Images

"[U.S. President Donald Trump] has made it clear: Hamas, the Houthis, Iran, all those who seek to terrorize not just Israel but also the United States of America will see a price to pay."

"All hell will break loose."

"[All of] the terrorists in the Middle East [should take Trump] very seriously when he says he is not afraid to stand for law-abiding people ... and our friend and ally Israel."

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt

The Anguish of The Wait...

"Hamas said last week that it needed seven days to locate all the hostages and then another week to prepare them for release."

"Such offerings are the Hamas way of extending an olive branch. Compel Israel to cave to their terms because of domestic public fury."

"Every Hamas video taunts and the tortures the country. It knows that."

"Since the U.S. election, Hamas has posted three videos, two of which showed signs of life of hostages."

"The terrorist group has issued statements on Telegram, including one last Friday that hostages are now guarded by suicide squads."

Vivian Bercovici, journalist, Israel

Israelis react to the ceasefire announcement as they take part in a demonstration in Tel Aviv, Israel, January 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)

 

Guarded by suicide squads; yet another not very subtle message for Israel: try to mount rescues and however few of your precious Israelis are left in our hands alive will no longer be among the living. This is Hamas, extracting every ounce of bitter anguish from the families of the captured innocent civilians; infants, adolescents, girls, boys, the elderly and the ill, women and men, and oh yes, Israel Defense Forces' service-men and -women among them.

Toying with the fragile emotions of Israelis; of the families whose loved ones are held by Palestinians who love dead Jews and abhor live ones. Playing with the minds of Israeli authorities mulling strategies to somehow discover the whereabouts of the hostages and mount rescues to reunite them with their families suffering the agony of loss. Teasing the poor lost souls held in their dank, airless underground prisons by forcing them to deliver videoed pleas of rescue.

In Israel, hospitals are in preparation mode to receive the hostages, broken in spirit, mind and body. Hostages out of Gaza after having suffered dread privation, torture, fear and hopelessness. Is there, could there ever be a cure for relentless infliction of pain on helpless people? Of clearing the confusion from the minds of captured children whose vacant eyes abandoned the search for their parents?

Captured terrorists under interrogation revealed details of the conditions of the hostages. The supposition is that the hostages, men and women, girls and boys, and fragile infants are all in failing health. How could it be otherwise? Imprisoned deep in tunnels from the time of their capture 15 months earlier. Given scant food and water, and no opportunity for hygiene. There are reports that many among them are incapable now of standing on their own.

 

Photographs of some of those taken hostage by Hamas in Tel Aviv, Israel, on October 18, 2023.

Leon Neal/Getty Images

 

Imagine a crowded, dank and airless dungeon, the air putrid with human waste, and barely breathable, lacking sufficient oxygen. A total absence of natural light. Among them are those who have been bound or chained for prolonged periods. And those who have been repeatedly raped -- both men and women, and of course, adolescents. 

Among Israelis, most oppose any agreement where all hostages are not simultaneously freed. And certainly they are not agreeable to a ceasefire agreement under any conditions. Yet saving the hostages is of primary importance. Even so, Israeli negotiators speak of the reality of the situation, only one deal has been eked out and that is the hand they and others must work with. To secure the freedom of the hostages, even as the dire need is acknowledged to destroy the capabilities of terrorists to continue mounting deadly attacks, as they are sworn to do.

The conditions stipulated in the agreement are not by any stretch of the imagination optimum for those waiting in agony to see their loved ones, for those being held in these inhuman conditions to breathe free and scent a glimmer of  hope for their future. It will take three months, at release intervals, for the first stage of the release of 33 hostages to play out. Israel is holding its collective breath for baby Kfir and Ariel, now two and five, with their mother Shiri Bibas, to be released.

Early in their capture, Hamas had told the children's father that his wife and children were dead, struck in an Israel airstrike, though never confirmed. The video of that little drama was one of the first ones released by Hamas. In return for the 98 Israeli hostages --both dead and alive -- released bit by bit, Israel has pledged to release no fewer than a thousand Palestinian terrorists, some of whom were convicted of dreadful crimes.

Relatives and friends of people killed and abducted by Hamas and taken into Gaza, react to the ceasefire announcement as they take part in a demonstration in Tel Aviv, Israel, Wednesday, Jan. 15, 2025. (AP Photo/Ohad Zwigenberg)

Anti-Hamas Protestations by Palestinian Gazans?

"[Many in Gaza remain feeling] abandoned [by Fatah after its disengagement in 2007 from Gaza when Fatah was defeated in bloody conflict with Hamas]."

"Fatah is the party of retirees [who have no interest in the massive youth unemployment in Gaza]."

"Masked militants [regularly loot trucks with humanitarian supplies leaving many Gaza civilians at the breaking point]."

"My message [to the international community] is to exert pressure on the government of Israel to set up Hamas-free zones in Gaza". 

Anonymous Palestinian with the "We Want to Live" Gaza protests

Photo: MAHMUD HAMS/AFP via Getty Images

 

Polls published by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research following the Hamas massacre in southern Israel of over a thousand Israeli children, women and men, many of whom were raped and tortured, their homes incinerated with entire families within, and hundreds of Israeli civilians captured and paraded in Gaza to loud acclaim by ordinary Palestinians, showed an enormous population percentage both in the Strip and the West Bank in support of the Hamas terrorist group, and their Medieval-era tactics in violation of humanity.

Now, eight months following the atrocities in Israel and the Israel Defense Forces incursion into the Gaza Strip with the intention of completely destroying Hamas, its operatives, commanders and their tunnel systems along with their massive weaponry depots, the very same polling firm conducted another poll; this time support for Hamas appears to have diminished, from the previous 80% support to a significantly lesser 40%, explicable given the number of deaths of Palestinians as collateral damage in a conflict deliberately provoked by Hamas.

But the 'struggle through armed conflict', still has a substantial majority of Palestinians at 54% in full support of the methodology of Hamas in its attacks against Israel and Jews. Although a reduction of support is evident there too, possibly a reflection of Palestinian recognition of the less than noble actions of Hamas against Palestinians themselves; from continuing to launch rockets against Israel from within vulnerable civilian areas crowded with internal refugees, including from designated 'safe zones', to the spectacle of Hamas operatives openly hijacking aid transports for their own use.

So when a Palestinian in Gaza contacts someone in the news media in the West to stealthily report a significant drop in support for Hamas and its Gaza operations, explaining why and how, that those sentiments can be viewed with skepticism is understandable. Someone who claims that legacy media in the West reporting that Hamas has lost none of its popularity from among the civilian population in the Palestinian Territories, despite the conflict it has brought on their heads, has got it all wrong and the reverse is true -- requires deep second thought.

In reality, transmits the individual, speaking in Arabic with translation supplied by the Center for Peace Communications based in New York, a mere five percent of Palestinians in Gaza remain supportive of Gaza-governing Hamas. Foreign media, he charges, perpetuate incorrect information respecting Hamas support among Gazans. In particular Qatari state broadcaster Al Jazeera, cited as the source of such misinformation, inviting the Western media to pick it up from, as it were, 'the horse's mouth'.

Doha, he claims, plays a "cancerous role", giving legitimacy to Hamas and through this process, prolonging Gazan suffering. Pointing out that the 2019 "We Want to Live" protests, led by Gaza's youth was neglected by international media. The Hamas response to the movement led to "torture and degrading treatment, including severe beating, breaking limbs, stripping clothing, and waterboarding", according to the U.S. State Department.

Above all, emphasized the young Gazan, who conveyed this information, it is the youth of Gaza increasingly becoming discouraged and distanced from both Hamas and Fatah of the Palestinian Authority. Four in ten Palestinians under age 25 are unemployed, there are no jobs available. Israel, he contends, could establish a "Hamas-free" enclave in Gaza where local community leaders would govern. Needless to say, Israel would have to be constantly on the alert that another Hamas might arise, bringing with it all the pain and heartache of the Hamas Israel is currently in the process of extinguishing.

Yet, claims this Gazan, a critical mass of Palestinians in Gaza is prepared to defend an Israel-backed safe zone from Hamas  terrorists. Israel trusted at one time, under then-President Ariel Sharon, that Palestinians would commit themselves to their aspirations to achieve statehood by focusing on building state infrastructure to benefit themselves and propel them into a secure future. Instead, when Israel vacated Gaza, in moved a supreme Islamist group dedicated to the extermination of Israel and the death of Zionism, integral to Jewish life everywhere....

Displaced Palestinians gather in a damaged building used as a temporary shelter in al-Bureij refugee camp in the central Gaza Strip on June 12, 2024, amid the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. (Photo by Eyad BABA / AFP)

Validate Russian Territorial Violations for Peace

"We have never refused to negotiate."

"We are seeking a comprehensive, sustainable and just settlement of this conflict through peaceful means."

"We are open to a dialogue on Ukraine, but such negotiations must take into account the interests of all countries involved in the conflict, including ours."

"[A Chinese proposal (2023) which Ukraine and the West rejected, could] lay the groundwork for a political and diplomatic process that would take into account Russia's security concerns and contribute to achieving a long-term and sustainable peace."

Russian President Vladimir Putin

Reuters

Who cares to dispute that Moscow has been prepared for well over a year to engage in 'peace talks', to end the conflict it unilaterally imposed on Ukraine? Infamously its offers to withdraw troops were always linked to demands that there be no repercussions for Russia which was only, after all, securing its security in the face of a dominating neo-Nazi ideology that was rife through Ukraine threatening stability in Russia. One of the primary conditions was that Russia would retain its holdings in the one-fifth of Ukraine it held, as part of Greater Russia.

 

Ukraine thought otherwise. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy counter-proposed that the Kremlin should pull out its troops, to make an end to the 'Special Military operation', and be prepared as well to foot reparations as a penalty for destroying an enormous amount of civil infrastructure in Ukraine, release all Ukrainian prisoners and recant its vile claims of fascist Ukraine, when in fact, it has been Russia whose moves stem from a deep-seated fascist motivation.

 

Workers repair part of a damaged thermal power plant, one of the country's largest, recently destroyed by Russian missiles near Kharkiv, Ukraine, on April 12, 2024.

On a two-day trip to Beijing, and interviewed by the official Xinhua News Agency, Mr. Putin's sanctimony reflected in the nobility of Russia's determination to combat the Nazis administering the affairs of the embattled Ukraine appealed to reasonableness in that peace is always preferential to war, but there are occasions when a nation's leadership, viewing the danger from without, must take steps to stem the tide of burgeoning fascism before it infected its own nation.

 

Ukraine committed itself entirely and without equivocation to democracy. Its bid to join the European Union and ultimately NATO, allows it entree only because it has converted itself entirely to democracy with a primary intention to defeat its traditional role as one of Russia's  subservient lapdogs, leaving behind the national humiliation of being a shadow country in thrall to Communist Russia.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy whose battered country is now in dire straits with a serious shortage of badly needed munitions against the Russian juggernaut, insists any negotiations must see a complete restoration of his country's territorial integrity; withdrawal of Russian troops, release of all prisoners, the striking of a tribunal for those responsible for the aggression, and security guarantees for his country.

Putin, calculating as ever, poses as the more meritorious of the two belligerents by suing for a peace he very well knows he has no intention of honouring without his demands being met with no equivocation. Meaning that he feels completely entitled to come away with the conquest of Ukrainian territory that he has achieved. Beijing has made common cause with Moscow, claiming neutrality, but clearly supporting Russia's claim of having been forced by manipulations of the West into the position of defending Russia.

During the two leaders' (Putin and Xi Jinping) discussions "a detailed discussion (took place) on the entire range of issues related to the comprehensive partnership and strategic co-operation and (to) determine the new directions for further development of cooperation between Russia and China". Beijing is completely and serenely complicit in the scenario of Putin claiming that history places Ukraine in Russia's inner orbit. Precisely the argument of historical 'ownership' Xi advances on Taiwan.

Meanwhile, Putin's strategic and territorial interests continue to expand Russia's holdings in eastern Ukraine with the Kharkiv region threatened, and Russian troops moving in to capture villages whose residents have fled the conflict for safety elsewhere.

Air raid alert across several Ukrainian regions

This map shows much of eastern Ukraine is under an air raid alert currently.

"Air defence is working, do not leave shelters and be careful" -- Kharkiv governor Oleh Synehubov warned, on Telegram.

Some Good News For Ukraine

"[The military had a plan on the number of mobilized conscripts for 2024]."
"As for this number, we have generated it for the next year, it of course takes into account the coverage of the current kit, the formation of new military units, and also the projection of our losses that we may suffer in 2024."

"I can't divulge the numbers for each of these indicators. This is a military secret."

"I cannot predict whether it will be six months, five months, three months. The situation can be completely different."

"If people propose a six-month rotation, they should understand that the amount of ammunition needs to be at least doubled."

"As far as military enlistment offices are concerned, frankly speaking, I'm not satisfied with their work yet."

"In the 21st century, the development of science, weapons, and military equipment will undoubtedly lead to changes in tactics."

"[The war in 2024] must differ [from 2023 because otherwise] we can expect what I wrote about in the article [for The Economist] to happen."

"For about 90% of [the problems of the war] we have found solutions that will help us act more efficiently, and more importantly, save the lives of our people."

"Our enemy is not far behind us, you can see what is going on in the last days especially, that there is a pretty intense competition in terms of the use of technology, but we are not letting up in this effort."

Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief  Valerii Zaluzhnyi

Ukraine's Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhny in Kyiv on Dec. 26, 2023. (Francis Farrell/The Kyiv Independent)

There are mixed messages in the fortunes of both sides in this conflict. The hope for a better outcome with Ukraine's summer counteroffensive remain elusive; the front line has hardly moved. A draft law was submitted by the Ukrainian cabinet to parliament, laying out a new mobilization plan for the army. The latest effort to resolve disagreements between the political and the military leadership over the sensitive subject of conscription.

The draft age lowering is envisaged by the bill during the conflict for men without military experience, to age 25 from the current 27, according to the parliamentary website. Limiting as well grounds for delaying enlistment, proposing the introduction of "basic military training" for citizens under age 25 The army's depleted ranks require replenishing, a matter of importance high on the country's agenda while its forces confront Russian troops during the second winter of the conflict.

Compounding the issue is the reality of a shortage of ammunition on the near horizon; over $110 billion in financial aid has been held  up  for delivery as a result of political infighting between the Republicans and Democrats in Washington and Brussels. The disappointingly small gains realized in Ukraine's counteroffensive weigh heavily, with Russian troops attempting a forward momentum in the eastern regions of Ukraine from occupied and annexed Donetsk and Kharkiv.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, while considering the conscription plan has not yet signed it, though it's been sitting on his desk since June. Ukraine's military leaders foresee the need to mobilize up to 500,000 people, according to President Zelenskyy, awaiting a comprehensive package including a blueprint for troop rotations and leaves. An urgency that cannot remain unaddressed as Ukraine counters an adversary with forces that far outnumber Ukraine's; while Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree expanding Russia's armed services.

But there is also good news. While commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi revealed that his troops had retreated from Marinka, leaving it in the hands of Russia, the city Russia has taken control of is in ruins, despite its strategic location. Also news is that the Ukrainian air force shot down 13 of 19 drones that Russia launched at the Odesa and Mykolaiv regions. The several not shot down caused infrastructure damage, but no casualties. 

 

Aftermath of the attack on a Russian ship in Russian-occupied Feodosia in eastern Crimea in the early hours of Dec. 26, 2023. (Photo: Ukrainska Pravda / Crimean Telegram channels)

And there was good news in that Ukraine's military destroyed a large Russian landing ship docked in a Russian-occupied Crimean port in an overnight attack, another major blow on Russia's already limping Black Sea Fleet. Landing ship Novocherkassk was hit at the city of Feodosia's base by guided missiles launched by planes. According to the Ukrainian Air Force the port of Feodosia was attacked around 2:30 am.

The contested peninsula of eastern Crimea was the port's location, in Moscow's illegal possession since 2014. Fire, followed by a massive explosion could be seen from kilometres' distance, verified by Storyful, a social media intelligence firm; shot at the right time and place to coincide with the attack. "The Russian fleet has become smaller", Ukrainian air force Cmdr. Mykola Oleschuk said mockingly, urging Russians to leave Crimea "while it's not too late". 

Designed to land troops and vehicles during amphibious assaults, the 370-foot long ship was capable of carrying ten tanks and 340 personnel, while the regular crew numbered 87. Ukrainian authorities believed the ship was carrying an ammunitions shipment and possibly that included drones. "Photos have already emerged where there is only a skeleton left out of the ship, everything else was burned down", noted air force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said President Vladimir Putin had been briefed about the attack.   (Reuters: Sputnik/Alexei Danichev/Pool)