The Canada/China Contortion Conundrum

"We are in a uniquely complicated spot."

"We are being borne along a current with very few options. So the idea that we can craft a way forward easily is wrong."

"They don't see it in Chinese thinking as an oppressive thing, they just see themselves in more benign terms as the leading civilization in the world, and that they ought to have an important say in the affairs of the world and even a dominant position."

"But it's not a Nazi-like military conquest of the world."

Gordon Houlden, director, China Institute, University of Alberta 

"It's been said that China doesn't have allies, it has markets."

"I attribute the Cold War spirit and the Cold War stresses, in largest part to China's actions, as well as the tone of their 'wolf warrior diplomacy', which isn't very diplomatic."

Margaret McCuiag-Johnston senior fellow, University of Ottawa, former member, Canada-China Joint Committee on Science and Technology

"It will require much more thought, it will require much more management of foreign policy."

"That will be difficult for everybody. It'll be particularly difficult for Canada because we haven't put much thought into our foreign policy for a long time, and we're going to pay a price in terms of the learning curve that we have to go up."

"That's the first step [Beijing releasing detained Canadians Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor] when I talked about China's assault on our sovereignty and our autonomy."

"It's sapping the will, it causes countries to feel that it's just impossible, it's too much work. And that was never Canada's approach in the past, but I worry that we've succumbed to that to a certain extent."

David Mulroney former Canadian ambassador to China 2009-2012

The U.S. Senate passed a bill aimed at competing with China on economic and other fronts. It wants clarity on U.S. strategy for working with allies. (Jason Lee/Reuters illustration)

 

U.S. legislation titled the Innovation and Competition Act, a 1,445-page bill is set to lay the groundwork for broad strategy on the part of America to enfeeble Beijing's plan to raise the country globally as a colossus of commerce, a guide to the world's perplexed over China's increasingly aggressive stance as the ultimate world-leading power. The Act identifies strategic industries where the recommendation is for the U.S. to ramp public support for quantum computing, advanced semiconductors and pharmaceuticals to continue to reflect America's preeminent global role.

It also proposes more substantial protections for America's share of critical minerals, expansion of research spending with an aim to strengthen cyber defence capabilities as primary objectives, among others. That same act places Canada in a role in sections of legislation; plans deeply consequential that will rework and reshape Canadian foreign policy for some time to come. This, as American officials spur forward on a protracted conflict with China for global supremacy; an issue observers refer to as the new Cold War.

That Cold War is in active engagement between the two giants on a number of fronts including cyber warfare, military expansionism, technological research, culture, infrastructure, and intellectual property. All areas incidentally, which in one way or another Beijing has stealthily intruded upon in the process enriching itself with the results of its cyber-scrutiny otherwise known as stealth-theft. There is little question that Canada's traditional neighbourly ties with the United States will inform its inclusion in the U.S.-led agenda dividing China and the U.S. where trade and national security are issues of huge importance./China impedes both at will; one as punishment the other as threat.

The links between Canada and the U.S. are historically strong and steadfast, culturally and politically. with the U.S. Canada's largest trading partner. An agreement between the two neighbours was signed to establish new supply chains for critical minerals and rare earths as defence against China's zeal in gaining rights and overwhelming ownership to both. Canada has been lax in deciding whether, like all other members of the Five Eyes intelligence group, it will shut Huawei out of its 5G upgrade.

On the surface the U.S. legislation is clear enough with its plans to uphold a "shared vision of democracy", maintaining the "rules based international order established after WWII", which China flouts with impunity. The loosening of export regimes between the two neighbours, protecting "critical defence-related technology", establishing open and transparent planning on infrastructure, co-operating on Arctic defence and energy connectivity, combating "industrial espionage" and deepening intelligence sharing "particularly in 5G telecommunications technology", all favour more secure ties.

And all specifically point at China's infamously notorious penchant for surveillance, espionage and hunger to acquire by foul means the intelligence and secrets of other countries. "We are in the midst of a fundamental debate about the future and direction of our world", stated U.S.President Biden in a public statement earlier in the year in response to a more bellicose, authoritarian China guided by President Xi Jinping who seized the temptation to step in where the influence of the United States has waned as it withdrew from various stations of U.S.-guided support across the world.

The Communist Party of China is invested in aggressively redressing its "century of humiliation" when the Western world advanced far beyond the capabilities that China brought to bear from the mid-1800s to mid-1900, a situation humiliating to a once-powerful nation. It focuses on a goal of re-asserting its proper place in the world as a leading nation whose influence and power can be challenged by no others, even as it challenges with the assurance of entitlement the lone global super-power as a has-been entity.

Implacably, President Xi awaits each opportunity with the patience of an ancient cultural tradition of self-assurance renewed. His mantra of "socialism with Chinese characteristics" has served him and his country well in a few short decades that has literally pulled the country from its bootstraps up, in economic advantage leading to its ambitious Belt and Road initiative expanding travel, trade and telecommunications links with Europe and Asia.

While bidding for economic supremacy since it joined the World Trade Organization, China has undermined multilateral institutions and the international rule of law. At one time President Xi in conversation with then-President Obama assured there was no intention to militarize the disputed islands he had built in the South China Sea that he had illegally preempted as China's sovereign right. They were soon enough militarized, the purpose for which they had been established. 

 

Multilateral institutions have been slowly succumbing to Chinese power plans where international settlements and diplomatic and industrial guidelines are set. Chinese nationals occupy leadership positions in some 40 United Nations institutions for engineering, maritime law, health, finance, atomic energy and dozens of other areas. A situation that would make even a cynic cringe over future implications where Chinese positions at the International Telecommunications Union, UN Industrial Development Organization, Food and Agriculture Association renders massive leverage to China.

 

 

Finally, Locking The Barn Door ...

"The agencies will form a view, and for the partnerships that are deemed high risk, they will not be funded."

"The bottom line is that [research projects] that are found to be high-risk will not be funded and those which come with a low-to-medium risk assessment will be required to have risk-mitigation measures put in place."

Innovation Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne

 

"Money is no object in Chinese R&D, and the Chinese partner in most cases would be happy to step in to fund what would otherwise have been the NSERC [Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council] portion."

"This would still have Canadian researchers contributing to projects that hold a national security risk for Canada."

"The guidelines seem to be limited to areas where there is federal funding. National security threats are hardly limited to areas receiving federal funding and these guidelines should cover all university research in a way that reflects federal responsibility for all aspect of national security."

Richard Fadden, former CSIS (Canadian Security Intelligence Service) director

A view by drone of the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg on Wednesday, June 9, 2021. (Trevor Lyons/Radio-Canada)

 

The Liberal government was recently on the embarrassing political hot seat with opposition parties insisting on assessing information in Parliament relating to the situation that took place at Canada's high-security microbiology laboratory when two Chinese scientific investigators, a husband and wife, were summarily escorted out of the laboratory in 2019 and a year later when their high security credentials were revoked, fired from the lab. Escorted out of the lab at the time was a number of Chinese biology students working alongside them at the National Microbiology Laboratory.

An unauthorized shipment of Ebola and Henipah viruses left the laboratory, sent to the Wuhan Institute of Microbiology with which the two scientists collaborated. It was also revealed that a microbiology specialist who worked for the People's Liberation Army biology laboratory was employed for a while at the Winnipeg laboratory. China has long had a habit of exploiting secret data, the intellectual property of other countries, lifting it and treating it as their own, providing useful short-cuts to refine their own scientific investigations.

Xiangguo Qiu, her biologist husband and her students were escorted out of the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg in July 2019. The RCMP have been investigating a possible 'policy breach' reported by the Public Health Agency of Canada. (CBC)

The government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau fought to deny the opposition Conservatives in the House of Commons access to revelatory documents and it has now seen fit to resort to protecting future federal government-funded research projects from the sticky hands of foreign governments. Without naming China specifically, the federal innovation minister announced new guidelines for scientific research granting to avoid as much as possible in future the kleptocratic inroads that Beijing has made into Canadian research property.

The head of the Public Health Agency of Canada defied a Parliamentary order to present the documents requested that would reveal the explanatory background of the two fired Chinese biologists who worked at the Winnipeg laboratory. The situation surrounding the two and the mystery of specific details aroused attention and gave rise to the urgent matter of security related to scientific research, with Canadian intelligence property falling into the wrong hands. Henceforth, researchers applying for grants through NSERC must complete a comprehensive security risk assessment.

Qiu and her husband, Keding Cheng, were escorted from the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg on July 5, 2019. After that, the University of Manitoba ended their appointments and reassigned her graduate students. (Governor General's Innovation Awards)

A national-security review conducted by Canadian security agencies and a team of scientists will be called for any project assessed as "higher risk". Any project judged to fall into the category of high risk will not be eligible for government funding. Roughly $1.3-billion is granted each year by the National Sciences and Engineering Research Council to fund research and training. It is not the only funding source, however since the U15 Group of Canadian Research Universities including most of Canada's research-intensive universities lays claim to funding $8.5-billion of annual research.

Last year the Canadian Security Intelligence Service repeatedly gave warning of Canada targeted by sophisticated state-sponsored infiltrators whose function it is in service to their countries of origin to purloin information and intelligence from Canadian companies and researchers. NSERC grants for the present involving researchers and private-sector partner organizations will require inspection and clearance to qualify for federal financial support for their projects. In time the process is meant to be expanded to cover all federal granting councils along with the Canadian Foundation for Innovation.

Grants are to be scrutinized to determine research that could be of potential benefit to other countries' military, police or intelligence agencies, or that would focus on critical minerals, nuclear power, critical infrastructure or technology and software subject to restrictions under the Export and Import Permits Act. All those categories neatly sum up the interests of the People's Republic of China in securing data and rights of all kinds, as well as its focus on monopolizing critical minerals and software and other areas of technological advances.

Criticism has come the way of the federal government for its obvious willingness to trust cooperative ventures with China-based corporations which then have the opportunity to cyber-access highly secret information. Such as the federal government partnering with Huawei Technologies in the funding of computer and electrical engineering research at Canadian universities. NSERC announced in February its collaboration with the Canadian arm of Huawei to fund studies, in contrast to top universities in the U.S. and Britain which have halted further research funding from Huawei over intellectual property and national security concerns.

A 2018 investigation revealed Huawei to have established a vast network of relationships with leading research-focused universities in Canada in the creation of a steady pipeline of intellectual property (theft) the company uses to underpin its own mobile technology market position. Western countries have assumed growing concerns over efforts by China to scour the world for technology with both civilian and military value -- characterized by Richard Fisher, senior fellow on Asian military affairs at the International Assessment and Strategy Center as a global "intelligence vacuum cleaner".

The logo of the Chinese telecommunications giant Huawei Technologies is pictured next to a statue on top of a building in Copenhagen, Denmark, June 23, 2021. REUTERS/Wolfgang Rattay/File Photo

Betrayal of National Security

The Winnipeg-based National Microbiology Lab is the only Level 4 lab in Canada, enabling its scientists to work with highly dangerous microbes. (John Woods/The Canadian Press)

"The fact that we're a net consumer of intelligence means we need to be extremely careful in how we handle this material."

"There seems to be no reflection on any of these issues whatsoever in this demand for information."

Stephanie Carvin, professor, Carleton University Norman Paterson School of International Affairs

"The research culture seems to have taken priority over the national security culture."

"There's only so many of these labs [level-4 security laboratories equipped to handle deadly pathogens] around in t he Western world, let alone among the Five Eyes."

"So if you're going to try to infiltrate one, you're going to try to pick the weakest link. And so once again, it turns out, that Canada was the weakest link."

"China has a very active, very aggressive and extremely dangerous bioweapons program,. So all the research that's being generated here could easily be reappropriated by the Chinese authorities to advance rather nefarious causes."  
"This would also explain why you haven't charged them, because once you charge them, then eventually you have to put people on trial. And when you put people on trial, then you have to disclose the evidence that you have. So the government might quite intentionally be trying to keep this sort of relatively below the radar as much as it can."   

"This needs to be a wake-up call for Canada about how aggressive the Chinese have become at infiltrating Western institutions for their political, economic and national security benefits." 

Christian Leuprecht, professor, Royal Military College of Canada and Queen's University

When asked about the case during a daily briefing in Beijing, Wang Wenbin, a spokesperson for China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, said: 'China and Canada have some scientific co-operation, which is quite normal and should not be politicized.' (Mark Schiefelbein/The Associated Press)

 

In the Canadian House of Commons a battle royale is taking place against the federal government's complacency over permitting arms of the Chinese Communist Party access to some of Canada's most shielded technical, scientific, military, political, industrial secrets. Opposition parties in Parliament are insistent that the reason why two top-flight scientists were dismissed from their work in the nation's high security infectious disease laboratory be disclosed to them. 

A vote on Thursday to declare the Public Health Agency of Canada in contempt of Parliament was passed. It had declined to provide top-secret details relating to the two Chinese scientists being ushered out of the laboratory along with a handful of Chinese bioscience students, without explanation. A parliamentary deadlock has ensued; the Liberal government refusing to hand over documents related to the National Microbiology Laboratory in Winnipeg's collaboration with Chinese military researchers.

The two scientists -- Dr.Xiangguo Qin and her husband, Keding Cheng, were fired in January for undisclosed reasons even while an RCMP investigation is underway. Tabling such sensitive information would result in a breach of national security and might interfere with an ongoing police investigation, responds the Public Health Agency of Canada under whose aegis the laboratory operates.

 

Dr. Xiangguo Qiu, a prominent virologist at the forefront of an ongoing RCMP investigation, is seen in an undated screengrab at the Winnipeg-based National Microbiology Laboratory. She was fired from her post in January, but officials won't say why. (CBC)

 

Experts for the most part share agreement that the Winnipeg high-security laboratory breach represents proof=positive of an overly relaxed attitude in Canadian government circles and academia with respect to actions by Beijing to secure foreign intellectual property in the region of biological or technological research. China is well known to infiltrate foreign powers using a wide range of avenues, among them its Thousands Talents Program, where leading scientists of Chinese origin and engineers working overseas are reminded of their obligations to China.

Security authorities in the United States arrested a number of researchers with connection to the Thousand Talents under the charge the program's ultimate goal is to take possession of sensitive intellectual property, then made use of by the Chinese government and its military. No fewer than seven scientists at the Winnipeg facility have conducted experiments and co-authored studies on infectious diseases in coordination with Chinese military researchers.

 

Qiu, a medical doctor from Tianjin, China, came to Canada in 1996 for graduate studies. (CBC)

 

Chinese scientist Fethu Yan from the Academy of Military Medical Sciences of the People's Liberation Army operated out of the Winnipeg laboratory for a time, occasionally listed as an affiliate of the facility. Countless research agreements have been signed by Canadian academics with Chinese researchers, accompanied most frequently with sizable funding arrangements. If there's one thing scientists working on projects respond to, it is operations funding.

 

The Winnipeg laboratory transferred Ebola and Henipah viruses to China's Wuhan Institute of Virology, under the direction of then-chief scientist at the lab, Dr.Xiangguo Qin; a transfer held to have been unauthorized. Several months later, the two scientists were ushered out of the Winnipeg laboratory by Canadian authorities. Mystery upon mystery, lacking explanation on the basis of their release's potential betrayal of national security. 

"Why did our security procedures not identify that this was not a good idea, that these individuals, given their background, should not be given security clearances?"   

"No news is good news, is how we often refer to it." 

"There are important security issues — and not just for us, but for all the other countries that we partner with as well — because if there's information that's going from us to a hostile foreign state, that is something that has significant ramifications."

Scott Newark, former Alberta crown prosecutor, executive officer, Canadian Police Association, policy adviser to the Ontario and federal governments

CBC News previously received hundreds of pages of documents through an access-to-information request, detailing a shipment of Ebola and Henipah viruses sent from the Winnipeg lab to the Wuhan Institute of Virology in China. (Karen Pauls/CBC News)

Unaware, Thus Unreactive to the Sobering New Reality

"More than anything, we need to shed the blinders of the past and see the world and our place in it as it is."
"[With the United States no longer the world's singular superpower], we need to stand on our own with values and ideas more than we have in the past. And to do this, we must bring to bear patience and consistency along with the resources to match."
"This issue [radicalized violence, cyber threats], is especially visible in Canada."
"We are surrounded by three oceans and the U.S., so we don't really feel threatened when, in a totally globalized world, that is unrealistic."
"The key here is to be as open as we possibly can to provide as much information as we can, and be careful. But I don't think the national interest would be served by our sticking our heads in the sand and not recognizing there's a problem."
Richard Fadden, former Director, Canadian Security Intelligence Service

Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Canada needs to wake up to the threat posed by its geopolitical rivals and look for new allies as the United States withdraws from the world stage, says ex-CSIS director Richard Fadden. (Maxim Shipenkov/Pool Photo via AP)

No nation is an island just as no man is, yet our protected geographical location separated from Europe by the Atlantic ocean, from Asia by the Pacific, and from Russia by the great (unfreezing) Arctic, with the United States on our southern border certain to come to Canada's aid to prevent its own borders from being breached by malignant agents, Canada has always felt fairly secure. Now, however, Russia has proprietary goals on parts of the Arctic that Canada has always considered its historical own. And China, with  its 'observer status', is just as interested as Russia in the mineral and energy deposits awaiting exploitation on the floor of the Arctic.

Mr. Fadden expressed his concerns and his warning to Canadian authorities and the nation's security agencies during a speech to the Conference of Defence Associations Institute. This is by no means the first nor would it likely be the last time this man -- who had also served as national security adviser to two prime ministers -- will issue a similar warning of global threats and upheaval, made far more relevant with the current situation of suspicion and disappointment among Western allies and uncertainty within the NATO membership.

Canada, Mr. Fadden urged, requires introspection over the global threat and Canada's place in the world order of mutual defence and national responsibility. A critical action would be to recognize adversaries and in so doing, formalizing clear limits on what the government will accept from the actions of presumably collegial and security-linked Western allies. Recognizing as well that, at least under the current American president, reliance on the U.S. to step in for Canada's defence is becoming more remote as time passes.

The U.S. may or may not resume its traditional leadership goal post-2020 election results. In the meanwhile, Canada should, he avers, alert itself to any threats from external sources harbouring aspirations that will not be in Canada's best interests by pressing for unity between its Western allies. President Emnmanuel Macron of France last week aired his own sentiments on this very issue relating to the seeming failure of the NATO alliance, claiming it to be suffering from "brain death", an apt enough description of its seeming abandonment by the U.S. from its traditional leadership role.

In particular, warned Mr. Fadden, the rise of Russia and China as more aggressive regimes embroiled in changing the world order to better suit their future plans and aspirations poses a threat of instability. The morose failure of the Western alliance with the withdrawal of the United States as leader and security assurance for its erstwhile allies has left a deep depression throughout Europe as leaders remain on tenterhooks, never quite certain what the future will bring.

But ongoing radicalized violence, cyberthreats, nuclear proliferation and stealth advantage to the disadvantage of the West is steadily encroaching on the allied partnership assurances now resembling a confused and hapless group hardly knowing where next to turn to ensure stability and reaction to actors on the world stage for whom the West's awkward stumbling and uncertain views into the future both entertains and reassures their common enemies.  

The four meta-issues are:

• THE RISE OF REVISIONIST STATES
• A DYSFUNCTIONAL WEST
• THE GROWTH OF RADICALIZATION TO VIOLENCE
• CYBER IN ALL ITS MANIFESTATIONS

Richard B. Fadden, served as Director of CSIS, Deputy Minister of National Defence

"It is to state the obvious to say that the world is undergoing fundamental change. China is and will be more of a world power that was the Soviet Union, the United States is no longer the G-1 power it was when the USSR fell, many Western  countries are pre-occupied with their internal issues rather working together to deal with the issues I mentioned earlier. And, some NATO countries, of course, are falling to the blandishments of China. Perhaps one of the greatest issues faced by the West is the lack of a common “threat assessment” and in democracies this cannot just mean governments but must include some measure of public acceptance. This issue is especially visible in Canada – we are surrounded by three oceans and the US so we don’t really feel threatened when, in a totally globalized world that is unrealistic."
Richard B.Fadden

Not Quite Who He Appears To Be

"[Cameron Ortis, high-ranking RCMP intelligence official has been accused of violating Canada's secrecy laws, accused of breaching the Security of Information Act and the Criminal Code]."
"[Five charges filed against him include the] unauthorized communication of special operational information, [possessing a device or software] useful for concealing the content of information or for surreptitiously communicating, obtaining or retaining information, [and breach of trust by a public officer]."

"[The unit within RCMP where Mr Ortis worked is] a fusion centre and a clearing house [for both internal intelligence and for sensitive information received from other Canadian and foreign intelligence agencies and allies]."  "[The damage could be] very serious [but] no one knows what the link between potential and real damage might be at this stage."
"The reality of his position is he would have had knowledge of a wide range of national security files. That's partly what of course worries Canada and worries Canada's allies." 
Wesley Wark, visiting professor, Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, University of Ottawa 

"He's basically Clark Kent in looks and in his dedication to do the right thing. He's the closest thing I know to a superhero."
"He's smarter than everybody -- I don't care who you put him in a room with."
"He wanted to be on the undisputed side of good."
"He's been offered all this money so many times to take a cushy job and he's never taken it. Unless there's some other element to it -- blackmail or gambling -- it doesn't make sense ... There's got to be more to it."
Chris Parry, former journalist, friend of 18 years

"I remember talking to him a couple of times about books people had written about crime and terrorism. I was always impressed with the academic rigour he brought to critiques of those books."
Angus Smith, retired senior intelligence adviser

"[I homed in on East Asia as the focus of study into cyber intrusion in part because of the region's] growing reputation as a breeding ground for software piracy, crackers, virus writers and lackadaisical system administrators."
"The region plays host to the most advanced use of the Internet by organized crime groups."
Introduction to PhD dissertation, Cameron Otis

Cameron Ortis in 2010. .Handout

No one, not his high school peers who were his admirers and friends at W.J. Mouat Secondary from which he graduated in 1990, the local pastor who was his father at the Emmanuel Mennonite Church, those who knew him at university as mentors and professors, much less his friends of that period and his later colleagues at the RCMP unit where he worked as a senior administrator suspected the man of being anyone other than what they saw him as; a brilliant mind, a dedicated intelligence officer, a man loyal to his country.

His LinkedIn profile reflects study at the University of British Columbia in Prince George where one of his professors laid "the groundwork for a continuing interest and passion for the study of international relations" (in his words). He completed a master's degree at McMaster University in Hamilton where his thesis title was: "The Asian economic crisis: the changing nature of the relationship between domestic institutions and the international system".

At University of British Columbia, pursuing graduate studies from 1999 through 2006 he remained fascinated with Asia. And so it made sense that field work of a number of years saw him travelling to eight cities in Asia to interview government officials, engineers and members of the "hacker community", where he described the "precarious undertaking" involved in pursuing face-to-face interviews in dealing with sophisticated crackers -- network intruders -- and not low-level "script kiddies".

His computer expertise attracted large firms, but their job offers were turned down, irrespective of the sky-high salaries on offer. He maintained a laser focus on travel and research and then in 2007 his career with the RCMP began, as a civilian analyst. The first years with the National Security Criminal Investigations program where he was a tactical/operations analyst, taking information gleaned from investigations to find linkages.

When the national police force underwent a major reorganization within its federal policing branch in 2013, a new unit was created named the National Intelligence Coordination Centre, and Cameron Ortis was elevated to the position of director-general with access to not only Canada's intelligence files but those of its allies as well, which would include the 'Five Eyes', group of the United States, Britain, New Zealand and Australia. Any breach in intelligence would include the entire group's intelligence, shared between them.

In 2015, Cameron Otis was alleged to have communicated "special operational information". There was suspicion that between September 2018 and September 2019 he began to access information -- inclusive of possessing a device or software useful for concealing or surreptitiously obtaining information to enable him to hare it with a foreign entity or terrorist organizxation; clear "internal corruption". This was revealed when the agency was involved in an investigation led by the FBI.

A probe focused on a man in Richmond, B.C., Vincent Ramos, whose company, Phantom Secure, aided in facilitating the flow of cocaine and allied drugs globally through supplying high-level traffickers with encrypted communications devices designed to throw law enforcement off their scent. Investigators appear to believe that Cameron Ortis reached out to Ramos by email with an offer of "valuable" information.

"If the allegations are proven, it would be frustrating that someone who perhaps had the highest-profile career [within the intelligence investigations branch of the RCMP] as a civilian ... has made these missteps."
"My concern would be this would be a setback to those efforts [where senior managers "sweat a lot of blood to attract people outside the core policing stream into the RCMP] because they're still important."
Allan Castle, civilian member in charge of criminal intelligence analysis, RCMP E-Division, British Columbia

RCMP Commissioner Brenda Lucki provides an update on the ongoing investigation, arrest and charges against Cameron Ortis at RCMP National Headquarters in Ottawa on Sept. 17, 2019. Chris Wattie/The Canadian Press

Forewarned, Unprepared, Stricken

"The reality is that inevitably this group has links outside. My assessment is that the motivation, the masterminds, are outside the country."
"I think their aim is global, it's not in Sri Lanka. Wherever they can get a soft spot they hit because they need recruits all the time and the only way that they can get recruits is by doing these kinds of spectacular activities."
"This is essentially a recruiting tool for them."
Madhav Nalapat, professor of geopolitics, Manipal University, India

"These attacks appear to be quite different and look as if they came right out of the [ISIL], al-Qaeda, global militant jihadi playbook, as these are attacks fomenting religious hatred by attacking multiple churches on a  high religious holiday."
"It is not about a separatist movement. It is about religion and punishing."
Anne Speckhard, director, International Center for the Study of Violent Extremism

"Given the gradual but steady growth of radicalization in Sri Lanka and more importantly the emergence of the Islamic State in Sri Lanka, this could pose a serious threat to the security of Sri Lanka."
"Continued marginalization of the Muslim community in Sri Lanka has produced a conducive environment for extremist elements to breed. These extremist elements could exploit the fault lines within the Muslim community and use the situation akin to how the Rohingya crISIL in Myanmar was used to foment and create extremist groups elsewhere in the region."
"This situation could ideally present the jihadist groups such as the Islamic State with a window of opportunity to plant their footprint in the Sri Lankan soil."
Geopolitical Monitor

Dead bodies of victims lie inside St. Sebastian's Church damaged in blast in Negombo, north of Colombo, Sri Lanka, on Sunday. (Chamila Karunarathne/Associated Press)

There it is in bold letters, former ISIL fighters returning to their  home countries intent on setting up regional terror hubs, a preoccupied concern of Europe and North America come to roost, its first showing since the destruction, but not complete demoralization of Islamic State, to turn to alternate means of evidencing its malign existence and its higher purpose, to slowly and steadily infiltrate and wreak destabilizing chaos through terror and slaughter, leaving the impression on vulnerable populations that they will never know where and when the next strike will appear....

The National Thowheeth Jamaath, a local Sri Lankan Muslim extremist group was a powder keg only needing the spark to set it in motion to create a devastating blow against government disinterest and inaction, its attention diverted by other pressing problems of political upheaval, separatist determination and violent terrorism by Tamil Tigers. The irony here is that the Tamil Tigers were credited with being the first such group to invent suicide bombing. An effective tactic of terror and mass slaughter enthusiastically embraced by jihadists.

The Tamil Tigers are a spent force in the wake of the destructive civil war and its ignominious defeat at the cost of untold numbers of Sri Lankan lives. Yet the Sri Lankan government and intelligence focus remained fixed on the Tigers, overlooking the more viral promise of Islamist jihadists revelling in their reawakening to the joys of Islamic martyrdom in service to the Koran's injunctions to the faithful. Friday mosque prayers are not complete without the customary jog to Muslim sensibilities of the sacred principle of jihad.



Out of Indian intelligence came a warning to Sri Lanka of imminent attacks, eliciting slightly more than a shrug, but not much more. And then came a whirlwind of action out of Muslim-majority Kattankudy in eastern Sri Lanka, reflecting detailed planning leading to a surprise multi-pronged assault where Christians and Westerners were both the message and the targets. In the aftermath, the realization that Thowheeth Jamaath aligned itself with global terrorism; ISIL or al-Qaeda on the Indian subcontinent (AQIS).

It was predicted. Analysts spoke of the "localization" of terrorism, reminiscent of Islamic State grooming its recruits to remain where they are, and to attack there,  using whatever means available. Small, local groups and individuals inspired by the magnificent exploits of those affiliated with global jihadi networks. And thus was outlined the future of Asia. Of Europe. Of North America. In this instance, with the Christian Sri Lankan churches and Western-style hotels targeted and the deaths of over three hundred innocents, the wounding of over five hundred, the message was sent, and received.

"The Bloody days in your church has begun", was the message alongside videos of the Sri Lankan bombings from an Indonesian Instagram account supporting Islamic State, reported SITE.

A Sri Lankan police commando enters a house suspected to be a hideout of militants following a shoot out in Colombo, Sri Lanka on Sunday. Thirteen people were arrested and three officers were killed during raids in search of suspects following the attacks. (Eranga Jayawardena/Associated Press)

What a Complex Dilemma Within a Wicked Web of Deceit

"Perhaps because the Chinese state controls its judicial system, Beijing sometimes has difficulty understanding or believing that courts can be independent in a rule-of-law country."
"There's no point in pressuring the Canadian government. Judges will decide."
Roland Paris, former foreign policy adviser to Canadian federal government

"[The United States must] immediately correct its wrong actions."
"[Meng Wanzhou's detention at the request of the United States while transferring flights in Vancouver was a] severe violation [of her] legitimate rights and interests."
"Such a move ignores the law and is unreasonable, unconscionable, and vile in nature."
"China strongly urges the Canadian side to immediately release the detained Huawei executive -- or face grave consequences that the Canadian side should be held accountable for."
Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Le Yucheng

"There is ample evidence to suggest that no major Chinese company is independent of the Chinese government and Communist Party -- and Huawei, which China's government and military tout as a 'national champion' is no exception."
U.S. Senators Mark Warner and Marco Rubio: letter to Prime Minister Justin Trudeau

"My take is, both Ottawa and London are in a position to say ... we do lots with you in the intelligence sharing and we're not going to jeopardize our networks. We know what to do."
"The magnitude of the contracts that Huawei has here [in Canada] would be a factor, with the Canadian carriers saying to Ottawa that it's kind of too late now."
Lawrence Surtees, vice-president for communications research, IDC Canada 

Huawei will play a major part in the global rollout of 5G mobile internet [Reuters]

Huawei Technologies ... who are they? A global technological giant, that's who. And though Huawei's integration into the Canadian telecommunications and smartphone market in Canada has been gradual and isn't considered to be very large accounting for only about 3.8 percent of the market, outside Canada it is an impressive juggernaut. This year smartphone sales of Huawei devices outsold Apple. The Chinese giant employs over 170,000 people across the world's geography.

It was founded by a former officer in intelligence of the Chinese People's Liberation Army and since its founding in 1987 has grown explosively in the last decade. In 2018 alone it racked up sales of over $102-billion. Huawei, to the telecom industry in Canada as well as the federal government, is known as an important equipment supplier, albeit one identified as a security threat by American authorities.

A U.S. warrant for the arrest of Huawei's chief financial officer, Meng Wangzhou, actioned by Canadian authorities for extradition to the U.S. has infuriated China. She is accused of having manipulated U.S. banks into unknowing compliance in funding actions defying U.S. sanctions against Iran and North Korea. She has been imprisoned in Vancouver and bail conditions have not yet been resolved. Her arrest has unnerved the Chinese community from Hong Kong with their dual citizenship, in Vancouver living in palatial homes.

Huawei’s P10 smartphone. 

Photo by Sam Byford / The Verge

As a major supplier of equipment required for wireless networks (that potentially could be used to gather sensitive information for the Chinese government), Huawei and its integrated equipment have been indispensable to those using its technology. Canada's response to U.S. concerns has been to state with assurance that both the Canadian government and representatives of major telecom companies in Canada insist precautions are in effect to ensure that  Huawei cannot pose security or privacy threats.

Although the United States, Australia and New Zealand have put the brakes on Huawei in their countries for security purposes, neither Canada nor the United Kingdom have seen fit to do the same. This is a sensitive issue since Britain, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the United States are allied in the "Five Eyes" intelligence and security network agreement, and two of the five are now viewed as possibly being compromised.

According to Lawrence Surtees, Huawei equipment has been installed in five Canadian wireless networks using fourth-generation LTE technology; replacement would be an extremely expensive undertaking at this point. Bell and Telus have included Huawei working to develop equipment for 5G wireless networks, expected to be increasingly important to carriers and their clients over the next decade. Few alternative suppliers exist of 5G network equipment.



Huawei employs about 960 people in Canada, some 600 of whom are in research and development. Its Canadian head office is located in Markham-Toronto and its Canada Research Centre is based in Ottawa, the nation's capital, with research facilities located in Markham and Waterloo in Ontario and Montreal in Quebec, Vancouver, B.C., and Edmonton, Alberta; well spread out throughout the country, represented in all major cities in various provinces.

Huawei-made smart-phones for current wireless networks are sold in Canada by Bell, Rogers, Telus and Videotron under their major brands, along with some secondary brands like Virgin Mobile, Fido and Koodo. Extrication from this well-established network would be very difficult. And disruption to Canadian industry, should Huawei decide to withdraw some of its investment would result in notable readjustments, along with injurious unemployment of personnel.

An employee monitors machinery used to adhere components to smartphone circuit boards in a manufacturing facility at ZTE Corp.'s headquarters.

Brent Lewin/Bloomberg/Getty Images

The Prestige and Privilege of Higher Education : Diversity, Equity, Inclusiveness

"Why is diversity so important?"
"Diversity is a powerful agent of change. Indeed, diversity is an imperative that must be embraced if colleges and universities are to be successful in a pluralistic and interconnected world."
Dalhousie University, 200 years of intellectual rigour

"The academy has been so focused on attaining diversity by race and gender [which are valuable] that it has created a hostile climate for people who think differently."
"The American Academy has -- arguably become a politically orthodox and quasi-religious institution."
Jonathan Haidt, The Coddling of the American Mind

"Loud noises, including whooping and traditional applause, could pose an issue for students with disabilities, such as those with anxiety or sensory issues."
"[Jazz hands are required at debates, panels and talks, along with at meetings of the student senate.]"
"Jazz hands [was designed to support those with disabilities and/or sensory conditions to participate in events."
"Students' unions strive to make their events welcoming to all of their students by acknowledging their experiences and responding to their needs."
Manchester University student union

Oh dear, the poor darlings, all of them. Due regard for their comfort and feelings must always be uppermost in mind at today's institutes of higher learning. And so, we must, all of us be aware, those within the sacred halls of universities where the young are nurtured, instilled with obligatory compassion for others, while science, history, politics, economics are all filtered through the delicate lens of leftist perception and compassion for the social-economic-political-non-gendered underdogs of society in the new(ish) social compact to produce sterling citizens of tomorrow today.

Dalhousie University, to celebrate its 200 centuries of existence as a hallowed hall of cerebral functioning has recognized a problem in its ceremonial mace; it is now viewed as an oppressive symbol of an oppressive past. So its function is being redesigned to enable it to "better reflect the University's evolving values and commitment to diversity and inclusiveness". Oh, thank heavens, really!

As for Lord Dalhousie who founded that eponymous institution, the old colonialist pale-male no longer appears to reflect the humanitarian values Dalhousie is now embracing. Did you know that Lord Dalhousie spoke of blacks fleeing the perdition of the United States post War of 1812 as "slaves by habit and education"? Well, he damn well did, the old rogue. What to do? Strike a scholarly panel to debate and probe: honour or expunge?

This past fall, Michelle Williams – the director of the Indigenous Blacks & Mi’kmaq Initiative, Schulich School of Law – was selected as co-leader of the Diversity and Inclusiveness Strategy. She replaced Dr. Wanda Thomas Bernard who completed her term summer 2017 after being appointed to the Canadian Senate. Michelle has been working alongside Jasmine Walsh, co-leader and assistant vice president, Human Resources.  Dal News

What is indisputable, however, is that Dalhousie has signed on to a Strategic Priority to "foster a collegial culture grounded in diversity and inclusiveness". To that end, an advert for a new dean of students specified that candidates be "racially visible". Courses? How about one on pulp fiction, another on popular culture, mystery and detective fiction, science fiction, fan culture, afrofuturism?
No kidding, chum...

Front and centre, top of mind, eclipsing all other matters of concern however notable is the new face of the Academy: anti-racism, anti-oppression, and so then it becomes de rigueur that Pride Week, Respect Week, African Heritage Month, Mi'kmaq History Month and Days of Activism against Gender-Based Violence be regarded as the fulcrum spokes around which Dalhousie and others of its accreditation ilk revolve. Of course Dalhousie has lots and lots of company.

Leaving Canada for London: students there now are no longer to use loud clapping, whoops and any noisy applause in appreciation of concerts or lectures. Sara Khan, Manchester University's liberation and access officer nixed traditional applause as being insufficiently "accessible", so clapping is banned and "jazz hands" is in, where people wave their hands about, instead, urging "student groups and societies to do the same".

The National Union of Students adopted "jazz hands" in 2015 on the grounds that clapping "triggers anxiety". Students who whoop, cheer and clap should, feels the National Union of Students, face "consequences". Audiences must be aware that to whoop in expressing support for a speaker has a "serious impact" on disabled students who under those circumstances, will find attendance at conferences "inaccessible".

Oxford University's equality and diversity unit last year issued guidance to its students advising that those who avoid making eye contact with their fellows could be guilty of racism. Can't get too much more august than Oxford; can't get too much more threatening than to be accused of (shudder) racism. "Trigger warnings" have been issued at University of Glasgow for theology students studying Jesus Christ's crucifixion; informed in advance they may view distressing images, and thus have permission to leave, should they wish to.

Jazz Hands...British Sign Language action for applause  The Independent

World Markets Tremble, Iran Sneers, Israel Accuses

"Oil prices moved sharply higher Monday as Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu accused Iran of nuclear deception in a televised address that was also seen live on YouTube. This follows his meeting over the weekend with U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo regarding Iran's nuclear deal." "Netanyahu referred to the nuclear deal as 'terrible' and accused Iran of having a 'secret nuclear bomb program'. The U.S. is due to decide whether or not to extend waivers for sanctions on Iran by May 12. If sanctions are reinstated, that could contribute to tighter global oil inventories."
"The loss of Iranian oil on from sanctions will be 500,000 barrels a day or 'perhaps less depending on [European Union] participation', said James Williams, energy economist at WTRG Economics."
"The impact of Netanyahu’s comments sent crude up almost $2 per barrel, at one point, 'as it raises the prospect that the U.S. will return to sanctions. It also indicates a higher probability that Israel will attack Iranian nuclear facilities', said Williams."
MarketWatch

Israel's prime minister says his government has obtained "half a ton" of secret Iranian documents proving the Tehran government once had a nuclear weapons program. (April 30) AP

"These facts are consistent with what the United States has long known: Iran has a robust, clandestine nuclear weapons program that it has tried and failed to hide from the world and from its own people."
"The Iranian regime has shown it will use destructive weapons against its neighbors and others.  Iran must never have nuclear weapons."
White House official statement 

"Anniversaries are usually celebrations of happy times, but not every milestone is worth celebrating. Thursday marks one year since Iran sealed its nuclear deal with the P5+1 world powers, and evidence is emerging that the Islamic republic is still working on its weapons of mass destruction. Peace, an alien concept in the Middle East, is as distant as ever. If the agreement is worth more than the paper it was printed on, the proof is elusive."
"Germany’s intelligence service reports that the regime has been making illicit attempts to purchase banned nuclear technology from German companies 'at what is, even by international standards, a quantitatively high level'. In other words, a lot. The findings by the German equivalent of the FBI, covering 317 pages, contradict Iran’s pledge to halt its nuclear program in return for $100 billion in frozen assets and a lifting of international sanctions."
"Iran is moving ahead to develop and test-fire long-range missiles that could be fitted with nuclear warheads in contravention of the nuclear deal and United Nations regulations, a move that brought quick condemnation from Chancellor Angela Merkel. 'Iran continued unabated to develop its rocket program in conflict with the relevant provisions of the U.N. Security Council', she told the German Parliament last week. Iran’s evil twin, North Korea, test-fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile last week, also in violation of U.N. resolutions."
"Iran’s subterfuge has caught the attention of U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who periodically urges the mullahs to knock it off. 'I call upon Iran to refrain from conducting such ballistic missile launches since they have the potential to increase tensions in the region', he wrote in a recent report scheduled for discussion next week by the 15-member U.N. Security Council."
The Washington Times, June 2016 

Israel's intelligence services, through undoubtedly insider information and assistance somehow took possession of hugely incriminating data belonging to the Islamic Republic of Iran, spiriting it to Israel enabling its experts to authenticate the intelligence, copy it and then return the originals to their source a mere day later, and none would have been the wiser had Israel not used that data to inform the world at large what many have suspected before and after the signing of the nuclear agreement.

All of which enabled Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu to engage in a news scoop verifying what he and his intelligence authorities have claimed from day one, that Iran is not to be trusted and is skilled at buying time to enable it to ripen its incendiary programs of domination linked to ownership of nuclear devices and the powerful long-range missiles they accompany. And so, the evidence clearly demonstrating all of that and more has been presented by Israel to the United States in hopes of persuading President Donald J. Trump that the time has never been better to abandon the agreement.

"The nuclear deal is based on lies. It is based on Iranian lies and Iranian deception", said Mr. Netanyahu, revealing what is generally understood to be reality, the existence of which is quite inconvenient. What Barack Obama invested his political capital in as a legacy project it remains for his successor to deconstruct. Neither France, Britain nor Germany, much less the European Union will be pleased to displease Iran. World energy markets are experiencing somewhat of a micro-panic at the prospect of reinstated sanctions.



Wily, seasoned and determined Iranian negotiators had been through it all before; the current Iranian President had himself headed a team of Iranian negotiators who bargained through an adversarial agreement on a previous occasion letting Iran off the nuclear hook, and laughing about it afterward, as the 'moderate' Hassan Rouhani, the quintessential insider of the top echelon of the Iranian Republic. Iran's linkage with North Korea, sharing ICBM and nuclear technology sees this confrontation with the truth at the very time when Kim Jong Un is himself flirting with rebewed deception.

Israel has good reason to be wholly involved in Iran's future plans for the region, since Iranian authorities have never been shy of boasting loudly and publicly of their plans to destroy the "Zionist Entity". That's some sense of humour, placing messages for Israeli destruction on the bodies of Iranian missiles. No less droll than Iran now stating it plans to move its 'embassy' to Jerusalem since most of its files are already there awaiting their entrance.

Israel sees its only line of defence as offence against the Iranian moves to establish itself firmly on  Israel's borders; in Lebanon and in Syria. Iran has been inordinately busy on many fronts; establishing self-contained military bases in Syria, providing updated missiles for Hezbollah in Lebanon, trucking in new high-grade arms into Syria, leaving Israel little option but to conduct aerial missions to destroy those intentions.

Iran's clandestine activities in continuing to develop nuclear weapons, along with openly testing ballistic missiles, more powerful and far-reaching than those before, leaves a clear enough message for the State of Israel. Iran's secretly-located depots, its test sites and engineering facilities may have been scheduled for shut-down but obviously were not. The very same Iranian scientists involved in the original research continue their work in perfecting what they began.

Now it's the turn of French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel to determine whether their blandishments toward President Trump will bear fruit. British Prime Minister Theresa May has already stated her cabinet's position that they will continue to support the nuclear agreement hammered out with an outwardly reluctant but inwardly joyful Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, a master manipulator and particular favourite of the EU's Federica Mogherini. 

EU Council Newsroom - Europa EU    Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, and Federica Mogherini

From Mosul to Raqqa

"[Canada's All-Source Intelligence Centre, gathers and analyzes data with the U.S.-led coalition] so we can develop legitimate military targets that need to be defeated."
"[Since ISIL] does not respect international borders, our assessments consider Daesh activity in Iraq and Syria."
"They used small drones -- ones that we would buy commercially -- and know how to drop munitions from those drones. They would use drones for surveillance and monitor the Iraqis and our tactics and strategies."
"[ISIL has] lost more than 65 percent of the land [it had dominated for its caliphate in Iraq and Syria, which had] resulted in the freeing of millions of people and significant reductions in their revenues."
"The key part is that Daesh is on the defensive. [But despite their defeats ISIL forces] are not surrendering in great numbers. That is not the way they operate."
Brig.-Gen.Daniel MacIsaac, Kuwait

How then, do they operate? As jihadists whose end goal really is the end in the sense that they court the status of shaheeds, for that equates with honour, jubilation and adulation in Islam; to become a martyr is the status they seek. Their initial goal when cornered is to escape so they can continue being feared and celebrated warriors of Islam, if at all possible. When that is not feasible, reflecting a situation inimical to survival, they fight to their honourable deaths.

This is the barbaric ideology that celebrates its gloating penchant for gruesome atrocities that make for such eye-capturing, heart-thumping attention in gory theatre that they excel in; videos of terror-in-action atrocities that gained them their notoriety and fear-factor so irresistible to the recruits their mastery of social media has gained them over the years.

With their defeat on the battlefield, outnumbered but not outfoxed, their public relations machinery has undergone an expert turn in convincing recruits to remain where they are; simply operate from wherever they happen to be. Use any weapons at hand. Any action, any attempts serve to strike fear into the minds of their targets, irrespective of meeting with success or failure.

Their proficiency both in the geographic field, mining territory to slow down the advance of their enemies, holding civilian populations hostage, killing those no longer of any practical use, or suspected of abandoning the sinking ship, and ensconcing their fighters and sharpshooters underground in expansive tunnelworks used to cache weaponry, reflects sharp minds at work, skilled in the tactics of underground guerrilla warfare.

A car bomb exploding next to Iraqi army vehicles during fighting to liberate Mosul Credit:  Felipe Dana/AP

Threat assessments and targeting information for Islamic State targets are now turning from Iraq to Syria where the focus is being transferred. The future of Raqqa and of Islamic State hang in the balance. Even with the certainty that defeat on the battlefield will represent only a hurdle, not the end of the practised killing machine that ISIL represents. As a Sunni militia it can still learn a few techniques from a Shiite counterpart, in the Syrian regime.

The nine-month battle in Mosul close to completion, Raqqa, the ostensible ISIL headquarters, beckons.

As for the All-Source Intelligence Centre, different branches of the Canadian military are represented from intelligence, artillery and communications systems experts to geomatic engineers capturing and interpreting data from cameras, remote sensors and global navigation satellites. The maps they create from those data sources are analyzed by the coalition to identify potential threats and to select attack targets.

"Daesh command and control centres as well as combatants, installations or anything else that is essential to Daesh operations", represent the typical targets the units identify, according to Brig.-Gen. McIsaac. "Fairly routinely" the Royal Canadian Air Force operates reconnaissance and refuelling flights over Syria where the airspace is complicated with the presence of Russian and Syrian fighter jets, along with the threat from Moscow that U.S.-led coalition aircraft may be targeted.

Crews on the RCAF CP-140 reconnaissance aircraft were "significantly involved" identifying targets for allied warplanes striking Mosul "until a few months back, when we shifted to another area", that area unspecified for obvious reasons. Canada's propeller spy plane has flown ten-hour missions, equipped with cameras and sensor arrays where on-board analysts at consoles behind the cockpit search for places where enemy fighters may establish themselves in a compound, a neighbourhood, an industrial area, making bombs.

Under Brig.-Gen. McIsaac's command is also a military surgical hospital in Erbil, Iraq, treating coalition troops and civilian workers, and a small helicopter detachment, along with a recently added RCAF C-130J Hercules aircraft to transport cargo and personnel between coalition bases. Brig.-Gen. McIsaac emphasizes that ISIL is "not only brutal. It is intelligent and creative", citing vast quantities of rockets, mortars and improvised explosive devices it produces, as well as armoured cars turned into vehicular IEDs.

Worse, its adoption of unmanned aerial devices in the hands of a terrorist organization. An estimated 4,000 ISIL fighters remain in Iraq, so along with the 20,000 estimated ISIL fighters in Syria, it may take quite a while to wrap up the conflict with Islamic State.