Moscow in Retreat?

"The combat potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been considerably reduced, which makes it possible to focus our core efforts on achieving the main goal, the liberation of Donbas."

Sergei Rudskoi, head, Main Operational Directorate, Russian General Staff

"Ukrainian counter-attacks, and Russian forces falling back on over-extended supply lines, have allowed Ukraine to reoccupy towns and defensive positions up to 35 km east of Kyiv."

British intelligence report

"I'm not sure that anything that the Russian military will do will change the balance. It's more about patching up gaps."

"They're going to be brought in as fresh bodies primarily, to replenish the losses ... folks who are suggesting they're bringing in everybody they can for one big push to break Ukrainian resistance -- I don't see that as possible now."

Dmitry Gorenburg, Russian military expert with think-tank CNA

An armoured convoy of pro-Russia troops in the Donetsk region © Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters

Mission partially completed, signals Moscow, now on to auxiliary mission... Russia has initiated a draw of forces from Georgia into Ukraine, badly needed reinforcements to make up for the unfortunate loss of Russian servicemen falling to the ferocious defense by the Ukrainian military. According to Moscow, no such thing, a mere handful, not the gross numbers quoted by Western intelligence, have fallen. The decision to bring in reinforcement from Georgia is only fair; they're no longer needed there to repress protests, so they're being given the opportunity to earn their keep, in Ukraine.

 

It has been a month since Russia invaded Ukraine and met with the surprise of fierce Ukrainian resistance, when Ukrainians failed to realize they were meant to greet the invaders as saviours, welcoming them with appreciative open arms. Instead Ukraine's citizens have been arming themselves in defence of their nation against the brute mechanized force of a volatile, oppressive and dangerous neighbour. One who has flouted all 'civilized' rules of conflict; an invasion where no threat exists leading to ceaseless, deliberate bombing and shelling of civilian infrastructure and the mass murder of innocent people. 

The cities of Ukraine have been bombarded and encircled, residential areas laid to waste, as up to three-and-a-half million of Ukraine's 44-million-strong population has been terrorized and displaced, thousands killed, others turning in desperation to find haven in sympathetic, Russia-aversive neighbouring countries. To which the Russian Defence Ministry addressed itself claiming its first phase of operations completed, it would turn its focus on the 'liberation' of the eastern Donbas region.

 

Heavily damaged residential buildings in the town of Volnovakha in the Donetsk region © Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters

 

The thousands of Russian troops stationed at military bases ranging from Georgia to Syria to Tajikistan, many in motorized rifle brigades, combat-capable and ready to deploy on orders from the Kremlin have not yet been called to duty in Ukraine. There is the trifling matter that withdrawing troops in those outposts would result in losses there. The Kremlin appears not quite prepared to order them wholly to disperse to Ukraine in a boost to the Russian ground offensive there.

The reality on the ground with heavy losses of servicemen, including the unprecedented losses of generals in the field mere weeks following the beginning of the invasion has shone a spotlight on an ill-conceived and poorly executed military manoeuvre destined to fail, in the face of a badly reduced 'combat power'. Up to 15,000 Russian troops, according to NATO, have been killed in the war up to the present, a number that Russia denies, citing a loss of 1,351 of its servicemen.

In any event, should an influx of reinforcements be brought in to relieve the beleaguered troops in Ukraine the course of the war seems unlikely to improve for Russia, given the vulnerability exposures that would eventuate in the redeployment of foreign-based troops in other global hot-spots controlled by Moscow. Reality is Volodymyr Borysenko, the mayor of an eastern suburb, the locale of Kyiv's main airport, reporting a call to clear out civilians to enable Ukrainian troops to counterattack.

Ukrainian forces have been planning and executing an encirclement of Russian troops on the main front outside Kyiv, in the suburbs of Irpin, Bucha and Hostomel. Troops that will be ordered to deploy to the self-proclaimed Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, to 'secure' the Donbas for Russia in its plans to eviscerate Ukraine, a scheme that began when Vladimir Putin decided to gift Crimea back to Russia.

A destroyed tank lies amid rubble in northern Mariupol © Maximilian Clarke/SOPA Images/dpa

 

At the same time Sinopec Group, the largest oil refiner in Asia, has halted discussions on a petrochemical investment and venture to market Russian gas. Even with China, sanctions imposed against Russia have had their influence.  "Companies will rigidly follow Beijing's foreign policy in this crisis. There's no room whatsoever for companies to take any initiatives in terms of new investment" stated an executive at a Chinese state oil company. Abandoning the ship of friendship established most recently on pledges of undying support between China and Russia.

 

Vladimir Putin, Toying With Tormenting Ukraine

"This is not a joke [the seizure of three Ukrainian naval vessels and 24 crew, leading to restricted shipping through the port of Mariupol]."
"It is not a Hollywood movie. It is a very serious situation [on the sea of Azov]."
Volodymyr Omelyan, Infrastructure Minister, Ukraine

"We have complete consistency on our concerns and messaging, right now we’re assessing how to get the crew and ships out; there are a variety of options for that."
"[During a North Atlantic Council meeting on Black Sea security, the United States] reiterated that we condemn this Russian act of aggression, that Crimea is Ukraine, and that the Russian action in Kerch is a clear military escalation and violation of international law and freedom of the sea."
U.S. State Department official (unnamed) 

"A city can survive even if it loses the equivalent of an arm or a leg, but this port is the heart of Mariupol."
Marina Pereshivaylova, manager, Port of Mariupol

Cranes are seen in the Azov Sea port of Mariupol, Ukraine, Dec. 2, 2018.

The Kremlin's dustbin of dirty tricks in its on-and-off war with Ukraine under the guise of supporting ethnic Russian Ukrainian rebels whose 'rights' under the government of Ukraine, Russia claims have been abridged, continues. Moscow will not surrender its suzerainty of Ukraine, disrupted when the previous Moscow-appointed President fell victim to a popular revolt that began in Kiev and spread to the rest of Ukraine, to find opposition in eastern Ukraine.

Vladimir Putin's utter disdain for Ukraine's fantasizing that it can consider itself a sovereign nation separate and distinct from the Russian Federation is more than evident in his authorization of Russian undercover military agents joining the conflict against the Ukrainian military upholding Ukrainian sovereignty, refusing to allow the separation of eastern Ukraine to become part of Russia, only to suffer the humiliation of Putin ordering troops into the Crimean Peninsula to annex it under Russian command.

Back in 2014 Putin had designs on Mariupol and a land bridge between Russia and Crimea. What he was unable to grasp with the Ukrainian rebel militias he is undertaking by stealth and compulsion in squeezing Ukraine's humble, elderly and inadequate navy by refusing it access to the Sea of Azov to carry on normal shipping as guaranteed by international covenants on sea passage, effectively locking Ukrainian shipping out of regular, lawful access through the port city of Mariupol.

Ukrainian naval ships seized by Russia are seen docked in Kerch, in Russia-annexed Crimea, in this image from video released by Russia's Federal Security Service, Nov. 27, 2018.

The indignities and violent harm that Russia has imposed upon Ukraine constitute in fact, an act of war. One that Ukraine is not equipped to respond to as an act of war. The military colossus that Russia's armed forces and navy represent simply cannot be challenged by a Ukraine operating vessels from another century, an impoverished state without the resources it would require to fight back and assert itself.

While international reaction condemns Russia as it has done for so many 'irregularities' in its thuggish state actions, Putin treats it all as amusing, nothing else.

The now becalmed Ukrainian port on the Sea of Azov is void of the large ships that normally pass through; Mariupol is in a state of enforced under use since Russian aggression has disrupted sea traffic heading to and from Mariupol to other Ukrainian ports and beyond. Ukraine claims that over one hundred vessels await Russian permission to pass through the Kerch Strait, under the newly-built bridge to Crimea.

The Ukrainian border service is at a standstill. The on-again, off-again blockage by Russia of sea traffic has created a dilemma for Ukraine because no one knows when new orders will come out of the Kremlin to impose further blockages and challenges to the free flow of sea traffic. This has meant that shipowners respond to this instability by sending their vessels elsewhere, bypassing Mariupol.

Mariupol is mostly empty, points out Andrii Klymenko, head of an independent research group in Kiev monitoring maritime traffic "because of the fears of shipowners". Well founded fears to any enterprise.

Mariupol is one of ten regions declared by Ukraine's President Petro Poroshenko under martial law, linked to the clash at sea and the decision by the Russian navy to seize three elderly Ukrainian naval vessels, further diminishing its tiny naval strength, as though to find humour in its virtual impotence. The commander at Mariupol's recruitment center, Lieutenant Colonel Volodymyr Levandovsky has called on reservists for medical check-ups awaiting the possibility his government may order a mobilization.

"I can say with one hundred percent conviction that this city will not be taken", he stated with grim intent. It remains to be seen whether Vladimir Putin will take another dramatic move as was done with the annexing of Crimea, to take possession of Ukraine's largest city on the Sea of Azov. But moves by Russia to this point have reduced the port city's traditional shipping traffic to its port to the point where life itself seems to have come to a standstill.

Simply Pitifully Misunderstood

"[There are the] vexing issues such as the Kremlin's seizure of Crimea, setting eastern Ukraine aflame and constantly menacing Poland and the Baltic states. This is precisely what the Kremlin has been loudly demanding for years in an unconcealed effort to divide the West."
"There are many other poisonous new elements to Russia's faltering relations with the West. They include the recent bombing of a UN humanitarian convoy in Syria, the sustained aerial bombardment of the ruins of Aleppo, persistent cyberwarfare against European allies and, according to the United States, the recent cyberhacking of Democratic Party computers to interfere with the U.S. presidential campaign."
Matthew Fisher, Postmedia News

"You know, it's very difficult to have a dialogue with the incumbent US administration. There's almost no dialogue at all. What does it look like? The US administration sets forth its requirements and then insists we should meet them. This is no dialogue, this is some kind of dictate. And that is what's going on with almost each issue."
"We have never wanted that to happen. On the contrary, we wanted to have friendly relations with such a great country as the United States, the leading economy of the world."
"We see what is going on. These are completely unfounded accusations. They accuse Russia of all mortal sins and crimes. But we know who carried out the strike on the humanitarian convoy - it was a terrorist organisation. And we know that the Americans know it too. But they prefer to have another stance on it, and engage into unfounded accusations against Russia."
"This method of running international affairs [The U.S. attempting to force a ceasefire in Syria] is called pressure and blackmail."  
"It is not our partners, who should get offended about our veto of the French resolution [over Syria]. It is us, who should get offended."
Russian President Vladimir V. Putin

Vladimir Putin believes that the complicated dialogue with Washington can be explained with the fact that it resembles an attempt of the US to impose its own terms on Russia  --- AP photo 

From engagement with other Arctic powers, Canada, Norway, United States, Denmark, Finland, Iceland -- Moscow chose to flamboyantly stage a spectacular to emphasize its singular entitlement: planting a titanium Russian tricolour flag on the floor of the Arctic seabed at the North Pole so no one could in error misunderstand which country had awarded itself the booty to be extracted in minerals, ores and fossil fuels in a territorial dispute that requires diplomatic interaction, not presumptive pressures of ownership, Vladimir Putin rolls the dice.

While oil was still selling at a favoured price on the world market the trillion rubles that the Kremlin spent on updating its armaments for the military, the establishment of a new network of military bases across Siberia, the plans to place an army division in eastern Siberia, and the deployment of a new battery of nuclear-powered ice breakers and silent submarines in the Arctic represented a full and brash display of Moscow's intentions, sans diplomatic discussions. Displaying Putin's mastery of chess moves.

The seizure of Crimea was simply a long-overdue settling of accounts, restoring to Mother Russia what was its to begin with, a sacred peninsula of heritage value, returned to its place, the beating heart of Russia. Ukraine? a satellite that has forgotten its purpose, and simply required reminding. The menace that Poland and the Baltic states claim to be emanating across their borders from rapacious Russia is simply their overactive imaginations, their base guilt at having abandoned the country that nurtured them.

From the Baltic to the Black Sea, Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia have forgotten what they owe to Russia, and simply needed a few reminders which the Kremlin obligingly provided. This is Russia's geographic region; the presence of NATO forces is a provocation too far. A declaration of intent nudging close to a call for all-out war, and Russia is prepared. The ultimatum put to Washington to have all troops and infrastructure from NATO nations bordering Russia removed; to have sanctions lifted, and to offer compensation for economic damages, is the price for the resumption of friendly relations.

Since NATO feels comfortable in giving military assurance to eastern Europe, Russia feels equally comfortable in basing SS-26 Iskander missiles with or without nuclear warheads in Kaliningrad. At this juncture, sweetly neutral Sweden is mulling over making application to join NATO as it reintroduces conscription and invites women to join the draft. Norway plans to increase defence spending and it, Denmark and the U.S. await delivery of new generation F-35 fighter jets.

The world is an uneasy place with the resurgence of Russian confidence and a president in whom Russians take immense pride, unafraid to contest the proud nation's detractors.

Intrepid Putin, Valiant Russians!

"If for many European countries, sovereignty and national pride are forgotten concepts and a luxury, then for the Russian Federation a true sovereignty is an absolutely necessary condition of its existence."
"I want to stress: either we will be sovereign, or we will dissolve in the world. And, of course, other nations must understand this as well."
"[Foreign enemies of Russia supported separatists] up to their elbows in blood [in the 1900s and early 2000s]. They would have been delighted to let us go the way of Yugoslavia and the dismemberment of the Russian peoples, with all the tragic consequences. But it did not happen. We did not allow it to happen."
"It also didn't work out for Hitler, who with his man-hating ideas wanted to destroy Russia and throw us beyond the Urals. It would be good to remind everyone of how that ended."
"Russia has proved in deed that it is capable of defending its compatriots, of honourably defending truth and fairness."
"[Crimea has] invaluable civilizational and even sacred importance for Russia, like the Temple Mount in Jerusalem for the followers of Islam and Judaism."
"Nobody will be able to achieve military superiority over Russia. Our army is modern and battle-worthy. As they saw now, it is polite but menacing. We have quite enough power, will and courage to defend our freedom."
"We should wipe the critical dependence on foreign technologies and industrial production. The main thing we need to understand is that our development depends on ourselves first and foremost."
Russian President Vladimir Putin

S-400 Triumf surface to air missile. Source: Olga Sokolova

Speaking to a hugely approving audience, Vladimir Putin characterized his opponents in the West as fascists out to destroy Russia, and where Adolf Hitler failed to succeed, nor will the West for Russia is strong, its people resistant to foreign intervention, and its president is capable of resisting all and any pressures mounted by his adversaries. Crimea is Russia's Jerusalem, and it has been returned to its sacred place in the heart of Russians.

The United States has transformed itself into an evil empire, plotting to suborn Russian influence in its near neighbourhood. Ukraine has been manipulated by the West, America in particular; with Kyiv, a fascist regime responding to a fascist invitation to be one of 'them'. The purpose clear enough, Washington had designs to make Moscow subordinate to its imperialist power aspirations. Russia resisted, and will always resist.

Russian President Vladimir Putin strides in a Kremlin hall on his way to give his annual state of the nation address Dec. 4.

As long as Vladimir Putin is at the helm, and that will be for the foreseeable future. It is loyal and patriotic Russians themselves who will decide what their future is to be, not some scheming outside militaristic source. And Russians are to be praised for their perseverance, for "going through an ordeal that only a united nation, a truly strong and sovereign state, could shoulder."

As for the sinking ruble, well, Russia will cope, it always has, and so will its people. Best not to dwell on things past, the palatial new presidential palace, the $50-billion pricetag for lifting Russia's pride into place, showing the international community the aspirational challenges that Russians are motivated to mount. And in reclaiming the Crimean Peninsula, prepared to suffer the financial consequences, to maintain Russian pride and honour.

Some things are simply beyond one's control. Such is the state of world affairs, and of the market in natural resources of which Russia has blessedly ample. Middle East Real Politik is responsible for the plight Russian economic futures find themselves in, with the collapse of oil prices reflecting the decision of the Arab-led oil cartel OPEC to lower prices to inflict harm on Aryan Iran. Russia's plight is collateral damage.

One that the courage and bravery and steadfast perseverance of the Russian people will surmount...!

Fearing Misunderstanding Russia

"[Russia's annexation of Crimea and eastern Ukraine destabilization] called the whole of the European peaceful order into question."
"This isn't just about Ukraine This is about Moldova, this is about Georgia, and if this continues then one will have to ask about Serbia and one will have to ask about the countries of the Western Balkans."
German Chancellor Angela Merkel

Russian tanks on a road to Donetsk. Russian officials deny plans to intervene in eastern Ukraine. Credit Dimitar Dilkoff/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images

At the Sydney (Australia) Lowry Institute for International Policy Studies Mrs. Merkel stated her fears of the creation of a Cold War zone of influence in Europe. Through sheer intimidation she could foresee Moscow demanding consultation on European decision-making that would otherwise be of no account to Russia.

The lack of a firm, viable challenge to Moscow over the issue of Ukraine and Crimea has given silent permission to Russia to continue threatening European stability. And with those threats, their diffuse and increasing incidence on the increase, comes the danger of the possibility of a far-ranging destabilization, one which could conclude in a global catastrophe.

Russian recklessness on the world political stage as exemplified by Russian President Vladimir Putin's casual and insouciant flouting of international rules of conduct by nations adjoining other nations, and his flaunting of Russian excesses and imperial aspirations hover on the edge of a challenge that will draw in all of Europe in an exchange that can only bode ill for the world.

All eyes in Europe swivel nervously toward Ukraine where the country seems poised on the verge of divorce; the Russia-centric east taking leave of the Europe-centric remainder governed by Kyiv and scorned by Moscow which has taken great pleasure in inciting ethnic Russian Ukrainians to civil war, lending its military, training and equipment to the effort of extending Russian territory.

President Putin has made it abundantly clear he would never permit Ukraine to resolve its internal crisis stirred by external measures through the use of force. The use of force must be seen as the entitled province of Russia. In the same token he finally desisted from the constant denials of making weapons available to separatists.

"Anyone who is waging a war they believe is just will find weapons" he stated with the authority vested in him by his wild popularity in Russia which his unpopularity outside of Russia has simply been favourable to increasing his appeal as the Russian strongman defying world opinion which purportedly knows nothing of Russia and cares less.

Russia's Transparent Design

"[Russian President Vladimir] Putin and Yanukovych have ordered and financed another round of separatist unrest in the east. Not many people have gathered, but they are behaving aggressively. In Donetsk, the crowd brought many children and women for the storming. They are provoking a spillover into blood."
"The situation will be brought back under control without blood. The Interior Ministry will not shoot at people, at this gang of paid-up provocateurs. Among the protesters, there are many that have been deceived, many that have been paid."
Ukraine Interior Minister Arsen Avakov

Pro-Russian supporters deploy a Russian flag and the flag of the so-called Donetsk Republica as they storm the regional administration building in the eastern Ukrainian city of Donetsk on April 6, 2014 (AFP Photo / Alexandr Khudoteply)

Masses of hundreds of pro-Russian demonstrators on Sunday took to the streets in several major cities in eastern Ukraine. Emboldened and without doubt stimulated by Vladimir Putin's repeated statements that Russia has every intention of intervening within its former satellites which host Russian expatriates to ensure that ethnic Russians and Russian-speakers are protected from harassment and violations against their physical well-being.

Inspired by the knowledge that if they riot, if they demand that Ukraine hand them over to Russian rule there will be repercussions in response to their violence that can later be attributed to the iron fist of an oppressive government doing harm to Russians, they will be 'rescued' by Russian military coming to their aid -- and assisting them in achieving their goal of secession -- out they come. No doubt assisted by Russian agitators arriving for that very special purpose.

In Donetsk, where former President Viktor Yanukovych had most of his political support, people wearing masks, carrying sticks and stones surged into the buildings of the provincial government building, smashing windows. Hundreds outside, many waving Russian flags, enjoyed speeches delivered from the building by their leaders holding a banner reading "Donetsk Republic". The activists within the building insisted on a referendum to be held for the province to join Russia.

    A breakaway group broke into the regional administration building and hung a banner 

 

Roughly half of eastern Ukraine's residents are ethnic Russians. They have been convincingly assured by agitators that the acting authorities in Ukraine are all nationalists with the intention of doing ill to Russians. A charge the interim authorities deny, counter-charging they have no intention of overturning the civil rights of Russians within the country. And pointing out their belief that Moscow has embarked on a mission of separation for the east of the country.

The large contingents of Russian troops on the border added to speculation of unrest in eastern Ukraine, all geared to building momentum toward persuading Russians in Ukraine that with the removal of their choice for president their lot will now be a difficult one, and they would be far better off within the Russian Federation. A change in fortunes they are swift to embrace, and to agitate toward, to further break up the Ukrainian geography, gifting Russia with additional hegemony.

To the northeast of Donetsk, hundreds of people in Luhansk surrounded the headquarters of the local security services, scaled the facade and planted a Russian flag on the roof. Demonstrators rained eggs at the building, changed to stones when the eggs were exhausted, then used a smoke grenade and finished off the assault with a firebomb whose flames were quickly extinguished. Message received.

In Kharkiv, local media reported similar protests. The day previous, Ukraine's security service announced its discovery and detention of 25 armed gang members who were planning to seize an advantage in Luhansk province. An anti-tank grenade launcher, 300 machine guns, a large number of grenades, along with five handguns and firebombs were seized by the Security Service of Ukraine.

The following day, when the violent protests had taken place in the three provinces, the body of a journalist, Vasily Sergiyenko, who was abducted from his home city of Korsun-Shevchenkivskyi on Friday was found in a forest 150 kilometres outside Kyiv. The journalist had played an active role in protests that had led to the removal of former President Yanukovych.

Settling Accounts

"The previous leadership of the Interior Ministry and the Berkut (riot police) did everything possible to ensure that any investigations would be impossible. Clothes were burned, weapons discarded and documents destroyed."
Ukraine Interior Minister Arsen Avakov

"What was planned under the guise of an anti-terrorist operation, and which was in fact an operation of mass killing of people, took place under the immediate and direct leadership of former president Yanukovych."
Ukrainian Security Service chief Valentyn Nalyvaichenko

REUTERS/Konstantin Chernichkin

While ousted Ukrainian president, Viktor Yanukovych wrings his hands in anguish over his version of Vladimir Putin's betrayal of the trust that Mr. Yanukovych had placed in him, characterizing the annexation of Crimea as a "tragedy, a major tragedy", insisting that he plans to beseech the Russian president to reverse his orders and remove his troops from Crimea at his earnest bequest, he is himself being accused of ordering the killing of Ukrainian citizen-protesters.

This new accusation levelled by the interim authorities in Kyiv is being posed perhaps as a grand new discovery, but ask those who were in the Maidan, and the medical personnel who were feverishly attempting to save lives, and the presumption is not new, it was always held to be the case. Perhaps it's just that in the general aura of affliction and incapacity to physically resist the Russians, the temporary authority, flailing about to retrieve a sense of authority, will grasp at anything.

But the new leadership after examining the events representing months of antigovernment protests, feels justified in releasing its 'preliminary findings'. That the disgraced president ordered snipers to fire on protesters, and were aided in their task by Russian security agents called in by Mr. Yanukovych. No evidence was provided directly linking him to the bloodbath, but the sentiments most certainly were all his; a desperate play for survival.

Ukraine has dispatched sixteen of its senior officers to Bulgaria to take part in a NATO military exercise, taking place a few hundred kilometres from Crimea. Involved in the computer-simulated drills are over 700 troops from thirteen NATO members and partner nations. After all, if Russia could assembly 40,000 troops and armoured vehicles, planes and helicopters and artillery beside the Ukrainian border, what's to stop NATO from gathering a few resources beside the area newly claimed by Russia?

A new American bill has been signed into law to provide $1-billion in U.S. loan guarantees to Ukraine. Allied legislation sets out punishing actions to be undertaken against Russia in reflection of its annexation of Crimea. That will most certainly help Ukraine in its future relations with Russia which claims that it owes Gazprom $2.2-billion for gas. And with Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev musing over whether Russia should press Ukraine for billions more it 'owes', Ukraine's finances look rather wan.

Another headache represented by its debt, and then news that Ukraine can anticipate a punishing new 70% increase for its gas supplies for the future. Russia has decided on the other hand that it no longer owes Ukraine billions for lease of the Black Sea ports for its fleet, since it now owns those ports, their infrastructure and all the military equipment, including navy vessels now bearing Russian flags. Has it occurred to Ukraine to invoice Russia for the privilege of running its gas supply pipeline through the country?

And when Ukraine has done that, another billing notice could be diplomatically channelled through to the Kremlin invoicing it for all of Ukraine's summarily occupied military posts, and all allied equipment, including said vessels, armoured cars, whatever Russia has taken possession of. After all, this is a civilized world, is it not, and any self-respecting, law-abiding state must recognize its obligation to uphold international laws protecting the possessions of sovereign entities...

Still, the Ukrainian authorities are really ticked off by Russia sending massive amounts of explosive devices, arms and crowd control devices by plane to Kyiv "to organize executions and the extermination of our protesters", which is not at all how a collegial neighbourly state should behave. Mr. Avakov spoke as well of evidence in hand that links former interior minister Vitali Zakharchenko in charge of police during the protests, to someone charged with coordinating hired thugs to beat and intimidate opposition activists.

So, all things considered, although Russia, which turned out after all not to be the kindly neighbour Ukraine always thought of it as being, it has no right to insist on payment of an amount Ukraine was expected to pay to Russia representing export duties. Since the duties, scrapped in exchange for a lease extension for the Russian Black Sea fleet in Crimea are no longer part of an exchange agreement in reflection of Russia owning the Crimean Peninsula, Ukraine can expect to be pressed for the duties.

At which time they must invoke their right for compensation of looted properties. And in that instance, Russia must of necessity end up owing Ukraine a huge whack of compensation, enough to enable Ukraine to refurbish its military equipment, and launch a military bid to contest Russian ownership of Crimea. Solutions abound.

Interpreter Required Here, Please

"What we can say now is that we do see a battalion-size unit moving, but what we can't confirm is that it is leaving the battlefield. Whether that movement is aft to a less belligerent configuration or returning to barracks, we do not see that."
"We believe that it [the Russian buildup of warplanes, artillery, infantry] can move within 12 hours. Essentially, the force is ready to go. We believe it could accomplish its objective between three to five days."
General Philip Breedwarlove, NATO commander

On the other hand, though NATO's top commander insisted on Wednesday that Russia's 40,000 troops positioned within striking distance of Ukraine are poised to attack on 12 hours' notice, Russian President Vladimir Putin conversely has informed German Chancellor Angela Merkel that the Kremlin was in the process of withdrawing troops from the border near Ukraine.

Nyet, says NATO commander, General Breedlove; thus far a single battalion of 400 to 500 men is moving, but it remains unclear whether it is in the process of withdrawing. The Russian force, according to General Breedlove, represents an impressively threatening array of warplanes, helicopter units, artillery, infantry and commandos with field hospitals and enough logistics to sustain an incursion into Ukraine.

  Mr Lavrov said Russia had the right to move troops within its borders

 

Should the Kremlin ultimately decide to cross the border, he estimates the force could establish a land link to Crimea simplifying the supply route bypassing the sea route. Also vulnerable is the potential for a lightning thrust toward Odessa, moving on then to Transnistria, or alternately, intervening in areas of eastern Ukraine; obviously the possibilities are endless.

For its part, Russia has expressed its own unease at the unfolding of events not under its control. What, exactly, are NATO's intentions, demands Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov: "We not only expect answers, but answers ... based fully on respect for the rules we agreed upon." Denials were swift from NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen, that the alliance had broken any agreement.

In his turn, General Rasmussen accused Russia of "violating every international commitment it has made" by its summary annexation of Crimea. And so, he said, NATO has every intention to carry out "collective defence" meant to give protection to member states by reinforcing defences in Eastern Europe.

As well as placing all civilian and military co-operation with Russia in abeyance. While characterizing Russian accusations as "propaganda and disinformation."



And in a bit of farcical comedic bathos, teary-eyed Viktor Yanukovych claimed he remains hopeful that reason will prevail, that he will importune President Vladimir Putin to restore Crimea to the rightful ownership of Ukraine. "Crimea is a tragedy, a major tragedy", said Mr. Yanukovych, expressing regret that he had asked Russia to intervene on his behalf.

Had he harboured the merest inkling of the Kremlin's intentions he would never have left Kyiv. Perhaps he might even have thought better of seeking closer ties to Russia rather than cement economic relations with the European Union. President Putin must be losing a lot of sleep over the loss of trust he has suffered from Mr. Yanukovych.

On the other hand, the acquisition of Crimea and all the infrastructure he has gained will doubtless serve to quell his grief over that unfortunate falling-out.

David and Goliath Redux

"They've lost all the installations and facilities -- army, navy, airbases and all the infrastructure that goes with them -- in Crimea. They have lost several thousand soldiers and airmen and sailors."
"The Ukrainian heartland is now vulnerable to an invasion from the south, as well as from the east."
Stephen Blank, military expert, American Foreign Policy Council

AFP PHOTO/ MAX VETROVMAX VETROV/AFP/Getty Images   A view of a trainload of Ukrainian tanks which are set to leave Crimean peninsular near the Crimean capital Simferopol on March 31, 2014.

"There were at least two highly trained, highly effective special operations units deployed in Crimea, and they are terribly dangerous for anybody."
"Ukrainians ... are very highly motivated to fight for their country and for their independence. It is not that clear whether Russian servicemen would be willing to die for their orders."
Igor Sutyagin, research fellow, Royal United Services Institute, London

However, asserted Mr. Sutyagin, Ukraine did manage to retain its crack Interior Ministry troops. And they have been given orders through a newly enacted bill to immediately disarm unofficial paramilitary groups. Ukraine's caretaker administrative would like to disarm the assertions of Moscow that vigilantes and nationalists who played a major role in the removal of Viktor Yanukovych, are now running, as well as ruining the country.

The order has been given, through the bill passed unanimously by Parliament on Tuesday; orders to the Interior Ministry and the Security Service of Ukraine to disarm the groups because of the "aggravation of the crime situation and systematic provocations on the part of foreigners in southeastern Ukraine and in Kyiv." Russia claims the foreign influence on Ukraine was responsible for the coup. Ukraine claims Russian infiltration is responsible for provocateurs-in-action.

Nationalist groups have continued to patrol Kyiv's main squares. Making passage of the anti-paramilitary bill a crucial determination in asserting central power. And defusing allegations of the paramilitaries challenging the government. During a dispute with members of other self-defense groups, a member of Right Sector was accused of opening fire on the city's main square on Monday.
Police armed with automatic rifles surrounded Right Sector's headquarters to begin 'negotiations'.

And at the crack of dawn on Tuesday members of Right Sector wearing military fatigues and balaclavas boarded buses to leave for a "training ground" outside the city. A trainload of military equipment comprised of tanks headed north into Ukraine from Crimea. While retaining the more robust machinery of war that Russia has claimed for its own in Crimea, it is sending back to Ukraine, the outmoded rust-buckets it has no use for.

AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin      Ukrainian tank T-62 placed on a platform to be transported to the Ukraine from the Ostryakovo railway station not far from Simferopol, Crimea, Monday, March 31, 2014. The new Russian tanks T-72B will be stationed on former Ukrainian military bases. 

 

Ukraine's once-well-kept and reliable war machines have fallen on hard times as a result of poor national finances. While Russia's booming oil revenues have enabled it to modernize its war machines. At one million men the Russian military outpaces hugely Ukraine's 180,000 troops. There is an estimated 200 combat aircraft and about 1,100 tanks in the Ukrainian military, whereas Russia has about 1,400 combat aircraft and several thousand tanks.

Ukraine is set to spend $12,000 for each member of its armed forces this year, whereas Russia will spend seven times more per person, according to data accessed from security affairs consultanty IHS Aerospace & Defence. Ukraine is in a state of unsettled apprehension, awaiting its May 25 presidential elections, with an economy in dire straits. Its government is desperately trying to decide how it might best avoid further humiliation from its giant neighbour.

Former Ukrainian, now Russian, sailors participate in a Russian naval flag-raising ceremony on the deck of the Ternopil ASW corvette moored in the bay of Sevastopol on Tuesday. Ukraine's forces have been severely diminished by Russia's takeover of Crimea.      Olga Maltseva, AFP, Getty Images

According to Russian estimates, out of the 18,800 Ukrainian military servicemen in Crimea before the annexation, Ukraine was able to withdraw a mere 1,500. The remainder having decided they would prefer living with their families in Crimea, the bulk have switched sides, joining the Russian military. So much for the vaunted motivation of Ukrainians to fight for their country. Reality versus an expert's theorizing opinion.

The Center of Military and Political Research, based in Kyiv, estimated that 51 Ukrainian naval vessels are now in Russian hands. Ukraine is left with ten ships flying under the Ukrainian flag. And, as with the outdated, crusty old tanks, they are delivered back to Ukraine relaying a message of contempt. An unnamed Russian official in the military informed RIA Novosti that the 350 Ukrainian tanks dated to the 1970s, of no use to Russia.

Only a decade earlier when Moscow forces attempted to take an island in Kerch Strait separating Crimea from Russia, they were rebuffed when swift mobilization in Crimea placed navy and border guards on full responsive alert. The government of Ukraine has requested of the EU and the U.S., so staunch in their condemnation of Russia's aggressive lunges at Ukraine, that they be provided with military hardware. The U.S. has responded with a supply of $3-million worth of field rations.

AFP PHOTO / RIA-NOVOSTI /POOL / ALEXANDER ASTAFYEVALEXANDER ASTAFYEV/AFP/Getty Images     Russia's Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev (C) visits the 13th Ship-Repairing Yard of Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, on March 31, 2014.

Assad: Russia is ‘re-establishing multipolar world’

The Syrian dictator previously expressed support for its key ally Russia when it backed Moscow’s actions in Crimea, which drew widespread international condemnation. (File photo: Reuters) 

 

By Staff writer | Al Arabiya News
Wednesday, 2 April 2014 

 

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad delivered a message for Russian President Vladimir Putin on Wednesday when he said that Moscow had helped to re-establish “a multipolar world.”

"The important role that Russia is playing on the international scene is today making a clear contribution towards drawing up a new map for a multipolar world," Assad was quoted by state news agency SANA as saying.

Assad, meeting with a high-level Russian delegation in Damascus, has been politically, militarily and financially backed by Russia since Syria’s conflict broke out in March 2011.

The Syrian dictator previously expressed support for Moscow’s actions in Crimea, which drew widespread international condemnation, especially from the West and NATO.

Russia, Assad added, is helping "achieve international justice, in the interests of states and people who believe in their sovereignty and independent decision-making."

He "expressed appreciation for Russia's positions and for its support for Syria, and satisfaction with the level of cooperation... underway between the two friendly countries."

Syria has reiterated many times it believes Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the United States are behind “terrorist” plots targeting the country.

SANA said Assad made his comments Wednesday morning during a meeting with the Imperial Orthodox Palestine Society.

The Russian organization is headed by former Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin, who was in Damascus to deliver a message from Putin.

According to SANA, the message "reaffirmed his country's determination to continue to support the Syrian people's resilience in all areas, in the face of the war it is waging against the international terrorism supported by some Western and regional countries."

Syria's war has killed more than 150,000 people and forced nearly half the population to flee their homes.

The Russian Ukraine Games

"We have information that Russia is carrying out incomprehensible manoeuvres on the border with Ukraine. Troops in some places are moving backward, some of them are moving forward. Which is why, obviously, we are worried by these movements of armed forces. We have no clear explanation from the Russian side about the aim of these movements."
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Yevgeny Perebyinis

A trainload of Russian tanks arrives by rail near the Crimean capital Simferopol on Sunday - Olga Maltseva / AFP / Getty Images

"Now there have been reports of possible drawdowns of Russian military forces from the border. We haven't seen that yet, but if they turn out to be accurate, that would be a good thing."
White House spokesman Jay Carney

Well, that's that; President Barack Obama's stern warnings to President Vladimir Putin conveyed both by personal telephone conversations and through the diplomatic auspices of the peripatetic Secretary of State John Kerry, busily meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergiy Lavrov did the trick. It's that big stick that Mr. Obama carries while talking softly. It has been rumoured that Mr. Obama's threats so frightened Mr. Putin that he still hasn't recovered from the last laughing fit that brought on a case of unstoppable hiccoughs.

So the Kremlin and Mr. Putin now know and acknowledge that they must obey the dictates delivered by the European Union and the stalwart American president, prepared to place their authority on the line against Russian recidivism (or is that irredentism); whichever, Russia has been messaged and in between guffaws of derision and sober moments of knee-slapping, savours the moment. For, in fact, a moment in time was all it took to restore to Russia what is theirs by right of heritage. Oh, a little intimidation goes a long way to be sure.

Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin tweeted a selfie on arrival at the Crimean peninsula and posted the boast: "Crimea is ours, and that's that". True! It most certainly is, is it not? And no one, not the United States nor the European Union is bothering to contest that fait accompli so skilfully handled. And that's the thing of it; from persuading President Obama that diplomacy works better than troops entering Syria to separate the slaughterers, diplomacy triumphed and the slaughter continues.

And just ask Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Israel, Jordan and the Gulf States how much they appreciate diplomacy that sets quibbling little guidelines beyond which the Islamic Republic of Iran in its unstoppable quest for nuclear warheads may not venture to satisfy the onerous requirements that must be met to assure the Security Council plus Germany that malevolent machinations really are not the Iranian goal, and the response would be gloom, gloom, gloom.

Pro-Russian activists hold a large Russian flag bearing a portrait of late Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin as they take part in a rally in Odessa on March 30, 2014. US Secretary of State John Kerry met his Russian counterpart today hoping to ease global tensions over the Kremlin’s annexation of Crimea and sudden buildup of troops near Ukraine. (ALEXEY KRAVTSOV/AFP/Getty Images)

Russia is on a roll, adoring its president's crafty manipulation of the "most powerful man on Earth", representing the sole "super-power", convinced it is doing the right thing for all of humankind, gifting Russia with all of its aspirations far beyond the expectations of even the reincarnated Bear itself. Gloating now becomes Russia, if only temporarily; until the reality of the cost behind the Sochi Games, the massive troop build-up scheduled military exercises and the niggling little problem of placating Ukraine while ignoring it diplomatically, to ensure the gas pipeline delivers the EU's energy lifeblood and Russia's majority GDP on schedule.

Russia's angst over Ukraine joining NATO really is for naught, since most Ukrainians truly have no interest in joining NATO. And since Ukraine is not a member of NATO there is no obligation to defend it militarily; it was never an option. And it could never be an option, given their historical ties as close as blood, as thin as water, insufficient reason to provoke a clash of ideological conflict through military means.

Mind, it wouldn't take much for hundreds of Russian tanks and armoured personnel carriers to reach Donetsk, Lugansk or Kharkiv, and warplanes could deliver their message even more expeditiously. But whereas 80% of Crimea was eager to join Russia, in eastern or southeastern Ukraine on the mainland it would be more difficult to enthuse the population that their future is with Russia, and what then? Equip and supply the troops comprised of raw recruits, inevitably meeting against a Ukrainian army of other raw recruits militarily hardwared by the West?

Russia could then watch as billions in gas and oil sales evaporate, while Europe looks elsewhere to energy sources through the coming spring and summer; from Canada and the U.S. say, or even to surrendering their sanctimonious position of environmentalism to develop their own gas and oil fields, resorting to the hated fracking in aid of supporting their teetering economies....

"Without Ukrainian Input"

"The Russian troop buildup is creating a climate of fear and intimidation in Ukraine. It certainly does not create the climate that we need for dialogue."
"The question is not one of right or legality. The question is one of strategic appropriateness and whether it's smart at this moment of time to have troops massed on the border."
"We will not accept a path forward where the legitimate government of Ukraine is not at the table. No decisions about Ukraine without Ukraine."
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry, left, shakes hands with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov before the start of their meeting at the Russian Ambassador's residence about the situation in Ukraine, in Paris Sunday March 30, 2014. Kerry traveled to Paris for a last minute meeting with Lavrov. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, Pool) The Associated Press

"Federation does not mean, as some in Kyiv fear, an attempt to split Ukraine. To the contrary, federation ... answers the interests of all regions of Ukraine."
Russian Foreign Minister Sergiy Lavrov

Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov advanced far-different proposals on how to calm tensions and de-escalate the situation - Jacquelyn Martin / The Associated Press

Of course when it comes to the matter of the disposition of Ukrainian geography and politics, if the Kremlin feels it is entitled to have a say in what another country decides on its own behalf, diplomatic channels of communication are always a good idea. In this particular instance, however, Vladimir Putin does not recognize the 'undemocratic' removal of Russia's approved Ukrainian president, and by extension can give no diplomatic recognition to the current, temporary cabinet, including the new president.

Entirely justified, therefore, in snubbing any opportunity to speak directly to the new Ukrainian government. Russia, and particularly its president, is very, very big on the niceties of democratic convention and is absolutely scandalized at the amount of corruption endemic in Ukraine. Zounds and horrors! All the while Viktor Yanukovych sat as president, Moscow could have complete confidence that corruption did not dare raise its ugly head; now -- well, now anything goes.

Sedate, prim Russia is not accustomed to the rough-and-tumble of citizenry audacious enough to presume they could take matters of state politics into their own protesting hands, defiling the Maidan with rubbish and dangerous fires, allowing ruffians to roam about at will and threaten innocent Russian-speakers for their unasked-for views, and demanding the downfall of a duly elected government. Atrocious, to put it in a word expressing extreme dismay.

The 1994 Budapest Memorandum, with Ukraine forfeiting the deterrence effect of holding onto nuclear weapons in favour of sincere assurances of protective support from countries like ... well, the United States and Russia ... should events occur that threatened Ukraine... International law, international normalities and international institutions do matter, after all. One should have trust in them for security and protection, yes indeed.

It is the plight of Russians in Ukraine (Estonia, Moldova, Lithuania, Poland, etc., etc.) that motivates mother Russia to have a care for her children, and thus the build-up of troops on the Ukraine border. To ensure that no untoward events occur to threaten the well-being of Russians and Russian-speakers; reasonable enough reaction to imminent threats where one's people appeal for help, no? And who comes to the aid of Ukrainians intimidated and threatened by Russians and Russian-speaking thugs?

Best to allow children to thrash things out between themselves; parents should stand back and hope for the best. It's common parental wisdom, after all. Annexing Crimea somehow isn't quite in the same league as an exchange of opinion. The "consequences" of which remain largely verbally condemning with promises of more to come. However, Mr. Putin is still enjoying the warm glow of achievement without effort resulting in military loss of any kind.

Oh, wait: there was military loss but it wasn't Russia's, was it, after all? Russia, on the other hand, gained hugely; expanded territory, the Black Sea ports that it is entitled to, some new (Ukrainian) military recruits, Ukrainian infrastructure and Ukrainian battleships, not bad for a few weeks' work. Without much of a strain, come to think of it. It's amazing what a little bit of well-planned and -placed propaganda will net.

Oh, and that meeting between the two diplomatic super-stars? Well, Mr. Lavrov and Mr. Kerry did come to an amicable agreement to work alongside the Ukrainian government to ... improve rights for Russian-speaking Ukrainians and to disarm "irregular forces and provocateurs". An agreement that will have to be relayed to the government of Ukraine.

What Crisis in Ukraine?

"[Mr. Obama informed Vladimir Putin that a diplomatic solution] remains possible only if Russia pulls back its troops and does not take any steps to further violate Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty."
White House statement

President Vladimir Putin spoke during a ceremony with newly appointed high-ranking military and interior officers at the Kremlin on Friday. Credit Pool photo by Alexey Druzhinin

Western governments are convinced of the belief that Moscow is gathering a fully equipped army on the border with Ukraine, in preparation for an invasion of eastern Ukraine. President Obama warned on Friday that Russian troops were "massing along that border", making it plain enough that there are suspicions of what is yet to come that an hour-long telephone conversation which President Putin had initiated between the two, did not dissipate.

"It may simply be an effort to intimidate Ukraine -- or it may be that they've got additional plans", theorized President Obama. Intelligence analysts conclude that Russia is focused on the three elements required for a sustained offensive in eastern Ukraine; artillery, supplies and communications -- under the screen of military exercises. Satellite images have provided U.S. assessments of between 40,000 to 50,000 troops within striking distance of Ukraine.

That's a swiftly impressive increase from the 30,000 that had marched to the border a mere week earlier. But then, events have moved on a whirlwind of decisions and implementation of those decisions. Mr. Putin decides, the Kremlin rubber-stamps, and the orders are issued and followed with exemplary speed. It is as though all of Russia is focused on restoring itself to its former glory in the belief that Ukraine is Russian.

The diplomatic channels opened after the telephone conference between the two presidents has resulted in nothing other than U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry meeting in France with Russian foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to "discuss next steps". Discussing next steps may have taken place, as both men agreed between themselves that it would be far preferable to find a 'diplomatic solution' to the current crisis than for the tension to continue at the current level.

But President Putin, while assuring President Obama that heavens, no, Moscow has no intention of marching further into Ukraine, nor for that matter anywhere else outside of the Russian Federation, has made similar sincere declarations on previous occasions, only to abruptly surrender to a change of mind, soon afterward. So the concerns of a trip-wire tension remain unabated. 'Will he or won't he' appears to absorb the minds of eastern Europe and NATO countries.

Russia, emphasized the Russian president, is extremely alarmed at "a continued rampage of extremists" intimidating authorities and residents "in various regions and in Kyiv". Odd, that, since Ukrainian authorities and residents are quite, quite upset at the prospect of Russia's continued threats to the integrity of their borders and their population and on fairly good grounds, given the recent yank-back of Crimea, its territory, assets and citizens.

U.S. Air Force General Philip Breedlove (good thing he wasn't named Breedwar), NATO's supreme commander in Europe, offers another possibility. The contemplation of a Russian plan to move from Ukraine's eastern border past Crimea to Odessa and Transnistria, to leave Ukraine landlocked. What was that speech last week in Moscow on the annexation of Crimea, by a smoulderingly triumphant Putin?

Pain at the Russian collapse of empire, and even before that: "After the revolution, the Bolsheviks ... may God judge them, added large sections of the historical south of Russia to the Republic of Ukraine." In obvious reference to Kharkiv and Donetsk and the remainder of southeastern Ukraine.

Ukraine crisis: Russia vows no invasion

BBC News online -- 29 March 2014

Russian troops are already in full control of Crimea

Moscow has no intention of sending troops into Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has said.

His comments came after the US and Russian presidents discussed a possible diplomatic solution to the crisis.

The US-backed plan calls for Russia to halt to its military build-up on the border with Ukraine and withdraw its troops to base in Crimea.

Meanwhile Ukrainian boxer and opposition leader Vitaly Klitschko has pulled out of the race for president.

He announced on Saturday that he was supporting billionaire Petro Poroshenko in elections due in May. Former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko has also said she will stand.

Announcing his withdrawal from the race, Mr Klitschko said: "The only chance of winning is to nominate one candidate from the democratic forces."

In an interview with state TV channel Rossiya 1 on Saturday, Mr Lavrov said: "We have absolutely no intention of - or interest in - crossing Ukraine's borders."

Analysis

Daniel Sandford BBC News, Moscow

If - as the White House insists - President Vladimir Putin was the one who initiated the phone call, then that is clearly a promising sign. It may mean that he thinks the military phase is over, at least for now, and Russia's best interests lie in diplomacy.
But the Kremlin's account of the phone call suggests there is some hard bargaining ahead. President Putin has introduced into the conversation the isolation of the breakaway Trans-Dniester region of Moldova. This should have nothing to do with Ukraine. But it has everything to do with Russia trying to strengthen its control in former Soviet countries.
He has also introduced the idea of international co-operation to deal with what Russia insists are "rampant extremists" threatening people and institutions. After the Trojan horse-like operation in Crimea, the government in Kiev will be very wary of any Russian involvement in Ukraine's internal affairs.

He added that Russia was ready to protect "the rights of Russians and Russian-speaking people in Ukraine, using all available political, diplomatic and legal means".

After the interview was broadcast, it emerged Mr Lavrov had spoken by phone to US Secretary of State John Kerry, in a conversation that Russian officials said was initiated by the US.

That call followed an hour-long phone discussion late on Friday between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Barack Obama. Mr Putin had contacted President Obama, according to US officials.

"President Obama underscored to President Putin that the United States continues to support a diplomatic path... with the aim of de-escalation of the crisis," the White House said in a statement.
"President Obama made clear that this remains possible only if Russia pulls back its troops and does not take any steps to further violate Ukraine's territorial integrity and sovereignty."

The two leaders agreed that Mr Lavrov and Mr Kerry would meet soon to discuss the next steps.
The US proposal, developed in consultation with Ukraine and other European countries, includes halting the military build-up near Ukraine's border, the deployment of international monitors in Crimea to protect the rights of Russian speakers, and the return of Russian troops there to their bases.
The Kremlin said that the Russian president had drawn Mr Obama's attention to "the continued rampage of extremists" in Kiev and various regions of Ukraine.

It said these individuals were "committing acts of intimidation towards peaceful residents, government authorities and law enforcement agencies... with impunity".

President Putin welcomed military leaders to the Kremlin on Friday

 

Mr Putin suggested examining possible steps the global community could take to help stabilise the situation, the Kremlin statement said.

Russia's reported troop movements near Ukraine's eastern border - described by Nato as a "huge military build-up" - has triggered fears that Mr Putin's interest in Ukraine is not limited to Crimea.
The BBC's North America Editor, Mark Mardell, said Friday night's phone call could indicate tentative progress towards a diplomatic solution - just when fears were growing in the West that Russia could be about to stage an invasion of eastern Ukraine.

The US and its allies have imposed sanctions on members of Mr Putin's inner circle, and threatened to take action to target the Russian economy, in response to Moscow's actions in Crimea.

Moscow formally annexed Crimea after the predominantly ethnic Russian region held a referendum which backed joining Russia.

Kiev and the West condemned the vote as "illegal".

The move followed months of street protests, which led to the overthrow of pro-Kremlin Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych in February.