The Russian Ukraine Games

"We have information that Russia is carrying out incomprehensible manoeuvres on the border with Ukraine. Troops in some places are moving backward, some of them are moving forward. Which is why, obviously, we are worried by these movements of armed forces. We have no clear explanation from the Russian side about the aim of these movements."
Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Yevgeny Perebyinis

A trainload of Russian tanks arrives by rail near the Crimean capital Simferopol on Sunday - Olga Maltseva / AFP / Getty Images

"Now there have been reports of possible drawdowns of Russian military forces from the border. We haven't seen that yet, but if they turn out to be accurate, that would be a good thing."
White House spokesman Jay Carney

Well, that's that; President Barack Obama's stern warnings to President Vladimir Putin conveyed both by personal telephone conversations and through the diplomatic auspices of the peripatetic Secretary of State John Kerry, busily meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergiy Lavrov did the trick. It's that big stick that Mr. Obama carries while talking softly. It has been rumoured that Mr. Obama's threats so frightened Mr. Putin that he still hasn't recovered from the last laughing fit that brought on a case of unstoppable hiccoughs.

So the Kremlin and Mr. Putin now know and acknowledge that they must obey the dictates delivered by the European Union and the stalwart American president, prepared to place their authority on the line against Russian recidivism (or is that irredentism); whichever, Russia has been messaged and in between guffaws of derision and sober moments of knee-slapping, savours the moment. For, in fact, a moment in time was all it took to restore to Russia what is theirs by right of heritage. Oh, a little intimidation goes a long way to be sure.

Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin tweeted a selfie on arrival at the Crimean peninsula and posted the boast: "Crimea is ours, and that's that". True! It most certainly is, is it not? And no one, not the United States nor the European Union is bothering to contest that fait accompli so skilfully handled. And that's the thing of it; from persuading President Obama that diplomacy works better than troops entering Syria to separate the slaughterers, diplomacy triumphed and the slaughter continues.

And just ask Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Israel, Jordan and the Gulf States how much they appreciate diplomacy that sets quibbling little guidelines beyond which the Islamic Republic of Iran in its unstoppable quest for nuclear warheads may not venture to satisfy the onerous requirements that must be met to assure the Security Council plus Germany that malevolent machinations really are not the Iranian goal, and the response would be gloom, gloom, gloom.

Pro-Russian activists hold a large Russian flag bearing a portrait of late Soviet dictator Joseph Stalin as they take part in a rally in Odessa on March 30, 2014. US Secretary of State John Kerry met his Russian counterpart today hoping to ease global tensions over the Kremlin’s annexation of Crimea and sudden buildup of troops near Ukraine. (ALEXEY KRAVTSOV/AFP/Getty Images)

Russia is on a roll, adoring its president's crafty manipulation of the "most powerful man on Earth", representing the sole "super-power", convinced it is doing the right thing for all of humankind, gifting Russia with all of its aspirations far beyond the expectations of even the reincarnated Bear itself. Gloating now becomes Russia, if only temporarily; until the reality of the cost behind the Sochi Games, the massive troop build-up scheduled military exercises and the niggling little problem of placating Ukraine while ignoring it diplomatically, to ensure the gas pipeline delivers the EU's energy lifeblood and Russia's majority GDP on schedule.

Russia's angst over Ukraine joining NATO really is for naught, since most Ukrainians truly have no interest in joining NATO. And since Ukraine is not a member of NATO there is no obligation to defend it militarily; it was never an option. And it could never be an option, given their historical ties as close as blood, as thin as water, insufficient reason to provoke a clash of ideological conflict through military means.

Mind, it wouldn't take much for hundreds of Russian tanks and armoured personnel carriers to reach Donetsk, Lugansk or Kharkiv, and warplanes could deliver their message even more expeditiously. But whereas 80% of Crimea was eager to join Russia, in eastern or southeastern Ukraine on the mainland it would be more difficult to enthuse the population that their future is with Russia, and what then? Equip and supply the troops comprised of raw recruits, inevitably meeting against a Ukrainian army of other raw recruits militarily hardwared by the West?

Russia could then watch as billions in gas and oil sales evaporate, while Europe looks elsewhere to energy sources through the coming spring and summer; from Canada and the U.S. say, or even to surrendering their sanctimonious position of environmentalism to develop their own gas and oil fields, resorting to the hated fracking in aid of supporting their teetering economies....