Moscow in Retreat?

"The combat potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been considerably reduced, which makes it possible to focus our core efforts on achieving the main goal, the liberation of Donbas."

Sergei Rudskoi, head, Main Operational Directorate, Russian General Staff

"Ukrainian counter-attacks, and Russian forces falling back on over-extended supply lines, have allowed Ukraine to reoccupy towns and defensive positions up to 35 km east of Kyiv."

British intelligence report

"I'm not sure that anything that the Russian military will do will change the balance. It's more about patching up gaps."

"They're going to be brought in as fresh bodies primarily, to replenish the losses ... folks who are suggesting they're bringing in everybody they can for one big push to break Ukrainian resistance -- I don't see that as possible now."

Dmitry Gorenburg, Russian military expert with think-tank CNA

An armoured convoy of pro-Russia troops in the Donetsk region © Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters

Mission partially completed, signals Moscow, now on to auxiliary mission... Russia has initiated a draw of forces from Georgia into Ukraine, badly needed reinforcements to make up for the unfortunate loss of Russian servicemen falling to the ferocious defense by the Ukrainian military. According to Moscow, no such thing, a mere handful, not the gross numbers quoted by Western intelligence, have fallen. The decision to bring in reinforcement from Georgia is only fair; they're no longer needed there to repress protests, so they're being given the opportunity to earn their keep, in Ukraine.

 

It has been a month since Russia invaded Ukraine and met with the surprise of fierce Ukrainian resistance, when Ukrainians failed to realize they were meant to greet the invaders as saviours, welcoming them with appreciative open arms. Instead Ukraine's citizens have been arming themselves in defence of their nation against the brute mechanized force of a volatile, oppressive and dangerous neighbour. One who has flouted all 'civilized' rules of conflict; an invasion where no threat exists leading to ceaseless, deliberate bombing and shelling of civilian infrastructure and the mass murder of innocent people. 

The cities of Ukraine have been bombarded and encircled, residential areas laid to waste, as up to three-and-a-half million of Ukraine's 44-million-strong population has been terrorized and displaced, thousands killed, others turning in desperation to find haven in sympathetic, Russia-aversive neighbouring countries. To which the Russian Defence Ministry addressed itself claiming its first phase of operations completed, it would turn its focus on the 'liberation' of the eastern Donbas region.

 

Heavily damaged residential buildings in the town of Volnovakha in the Donetsk region © Alexander Ermochenko/Reuters

 

The thousands of Russian troops stationed at military bases ranging from Georgia to Syria to Tajikistan, many in motorized rifle brigades, combat-capable and ready to deploy on orders from the Kremlin have not yet been called to duty in Ukraine. There is the trifling matter that withdrawing troops in those outposts would result in losses there. The Kremlin appears not quite prepared to order them wholly to disperse to Ukraine in a boost to the Russian ground offensive there.

The reality on the ground with heavy losses of servicemen, including the unprecedented losses of generals in the field mere weeks following the beginning of the invasion has shone a spotlight on an ill-conceived and poorly executed military manoeuvre destined to fail, in the face of a badly reduced 'combat power'. Up to 15,000 Russian troops, according to NATO, have been killed in the war up to the present, a number that Russia denies, citing a loss of 1,351 of its servicemen.

In any event, should an influx of reinforcements be brought in to relieve the beleaguered troops in Ukraine the course of the war seems unlikely to improve for Russia, given the vulnerability exposures that would eventuate in the redeployment of foreign-based troops in other global hot-spots controlled by Moscow. Reality is Volodymyr Borysenko, the mayor of an eastern suburb, the locale of Kyiv's main airport, reporting a call to clear out civilians to enable Ukrainian troops to counterattack.

Ukrainian forces have been planning and executing an encirclement of Russian troops on the main front outside Kyiv, in the suburbs of Irpin, Bucha and Hostomel. Troops that will be ordered to deploy to the self-proclaimed Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk, to 'secure' the Donbas for Russia in its plans to eviscerate Ukraine, a scheme that began when Vladimir Putin decided to gift Crimea back to Russia.

A destroyed tank lies amid rubble in northern Mariupol © Maximilian Clarke/SOPA Images/dpa

 

At the same time Sinopec Group, the largest oil refiner in Asia, has halted discussions on a petrochemical investment and venture to market Russian gas. Even with China, sanctions imposed against Russia have had their influence.  "Companies will rigidly follow Beijing's foreign policy in this crisis. There's no room whatsoever for companies to take any initiatives in terms of new investment" stated an executive at a Chinese state oil company. Abandoning the ship of friendship established most recently on pledges of undying support between China and Russia.