David and Goliath Redux

"They've lost all the installations and facilities -- army, navy, airbases and all the infrastructure that goes with them -- in Crimea. They have lost several thousand soldiers and airmen and sailors."
"The Ukrainian heartland is now vulnerable to an invasion from the south, as well as from the east."
Stephen Blank, military expert, American Foreign Policy Council

AFP PHOTO/ MAX VETROVMAX VETROV/AFP/Getty Images   A view of a trainload of Ukrainian tanks which are set to leave Crimean peninsular near the Crimean capital Simferopol on March 31, 2014.

"There were at least two highly trained, highly effective special operations units deployed in Crimea, and they are terribly dangerous for anybody."
"Ukrainians ... are very highly motivated to fight for their country and for their independence. It is not that clear whether Russian servicemen would be willing to die for their orders."
Igor Sutyagin, research fellow, Royal United Services Institute, London

However, asserted Mr. Sutyagin, Ukraine did manage to retain its crack Interior Ministry troops. And they have been given orders through a newly enacted bill to immediately disarm unofficial paramilitary groups. Ukraine's caretaker administrative would like to disarm the assertions of Moscow that vigilantes and nationalists who played a major role in the removal of Viktor Yanukovych, are now running, as well as ruining the country.

The order has been given, through the bill passed unanimously by Parliament on Tuesday; orders to the Interior Ministry and the Security Service of Ukraine to disarm the groups because of the "aggravation of the crime situation and systematic provocations on the part of foreigners in southeastern Ukraine and in Kyiv." Russia claims the foreign influence on Ukraine was responsible for the coup. Ukraine claims Russian infiltration is responsible for provocateurs-in-action.

Nationalist groups have continued to patrol Kyiv's main squares. Making passage of the anti-paramilitary bill a crucial determination in asserting central power. And defusing allegations of the paramilitaries challenging the government. During a dispute with members of other self-defense groups, a member of Right Sector was accused of opening fire on the city's main square on Monday.
Police armed with automatic rifles surrounded Right Sector's headquarters to begin 'negotiations'.

And at the crack of dawn on Tuesday members of Right Sector wearing military fatigues and balaclavas boarded buses to leave for a "training ground" outside the city. A trainload of military equipment comprised of tanks headed north into Ukraine from Crimea. While retaining the more robust machinery of war that Russia has claimed for its own in Crimea, it is sending back to Ukraine, the outmoded rust-buckets it has no use for.

AP Photo/Pavel Golovkin      Ukrainian tank T-62 placed on a platform to be transported to the Ukraine from the Ostryakovo railway station not far from Simferopol, Crimea, Monday, March 31, 2014. The new Russian tanks T-72B will be stationed on former Ukrainian military bases. 

 

Ukraine's once-well-kept and reliable war machines have fallen on hard times as a result of poor national finances. While Russia's booming oil revenues have enabled it to modernize its war machines. At one million men the Russian military outpaces hugely Ukraine's 180,000 troops. There is an estimated 200 combat aircraft and about 1,100 tanks in the Ukrainian military, whereas Russia has about 1,400 combat aircraft and several thousand tanks.

Ukraine is set to spend $12,000 for each member of its armed forces this year, whereas Russia will spend seven times more per person, according to data accessed from security affairs consultanty IHS Aerospace & Defence. Ukraine is in a state of unsettled apprehension, awaiting its May 25 presidential elections, with an economy in dire straits. Its government is desperately trying to decide how it might best avoid further humiliation from its giant neighbour.

Former Ukrainian, now Russian, sailors participate in a Russian naval flag-raising ceremony on the deck of the Ternopil ASW corvette moored in the bay of Sevastopol on Tuesday. Ukraine's forces have been severely diminished by Russia's takeover of Crimea.      Olga Maltseva, AFP, Getty Images

According to Russian estimates, out of the 18,800 Ukrainian military servicemen in Crimea before the annexation, Ukraine was able to withdraw a mere 1,500. The remainder having decided they would prefer living with their families in Crimea, the bulk have switched sides, joining the Russian military. So much for the vaunted motivation of Ukrainians to fight for their country. Reality versus an expert's theorizing opinion.

The Center of Military and Political Research, based in Kyiv, estimated that 51 Ukrainian naval vessels are now in Russian hands. Ukraine is left with ten ships flying under the Ukrainian flag. And, as with the outdated, crusty old tanks, they are delivered back to Ukraine relaying a message of contempt. An unnamed Russian official in the military informed RIA Novosti that the 350 Ukrainian tanks dated to the 1970s, of no use to Russia.

Only a decade earlier when Moscow forces attempted to take an island in Kerch Strait separating Crimea from Russia, they were rebuffed when swift mobilization in Crimea placed navy and border guards on full responsive alert. The government of Ukraine has requested of the EU and the U.S., so staunch in their condemnation of Russia's aggressive lunges at Ukraine, that they be provided with military hardware. The U.S. has responded with a supply of $3-million worth of field rations.

AFP PHOTO / RIA-NOVOSTI /POOL / ALEXANDER ASTAFYEVALEXANDER ASTAFYEV/AFP/Getty Images     Russia's Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev (C) visits the 13th Ship-Repairing Yard of Russian Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol, on March 31, 2014.