Some Good News For Ukraine

"[The military had a plan on the number of mobilized conscripts for 2024]."
"As for this number, we have generated it for the next year, it of course takes into account the coverage of the current kit, the formation of new military units, and also the projection of our losses that we may suffer in 2024."

"I can't divulge the numbers for each of these indicators. This is a military secret."

"I cannot predict whether it will be six months, five months, three months. The situation can be completely different."

"If people propose a six-month rotation, they should understand that the amount of ammunition needs to be at least doubled."

"As far as military enlistment offices are concerned, frankly speaking, I'm not satisfied with their work yet."

"In the 21st century, the development of science, weapons, and military equipment will undoubtedly lead to changes in tactics."

"[The war in 2024] must differ [from 2023 because otherwise] we can expect what I wrote about in the article [for The Economist] to happen."

"For about 90% of [the problems of the war] we have found solutions that will help us act more efficiently, and more importantly, save the lives of our people."

"Our enemy is not far behind us, you can see what is going on in the last days especially, that there is a pretty intense competition in terms of the use of technology, but we are not letting up in this effort."

Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief  Valerii Zaluzhnyi

Ukraine's Armed Forces Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhny in Kyiv on Dec. 26, 2023. (Francis Farrell/The Kyiv Independent)

There are mixed messages in the fortunes of both sides in this conflict. The hope for a better outcome with Ukraine's summer counteroffensive remain elusive; the front line has hardly moved. A draft law was submitted by the Ukrainian cabinet to parliament, laying out a new mobilization plan for the army. The latest effort to resolve disagreements between the political and the military leadership over the sensitive subject of conscription.

The draft age lowering is envisaged by the bill during the conflict for men without military experience, to age 25 from the current 27, according to the parliamentary website. Limiting as well grounds for delaying enlistment, proposing the introduction of "basic military training" for citizens under age 25 The army's depleted ranks require replenishing, a matter of importance high on the country's agenda while its forces confront Russian troops during the second winter of the conflict.

Compounding the issue is the reality of a shortage of ammunition on the near horizon; over $110 billion in financial aid has been held  up  for delivery as a result of political infighting between the Republicans and Democrats in Washington and Brussels. The disappointingly small gains realized in Ukraine's counteroffensive weigh heavily, with Russian troops attempting a forward momentum in the eastern regions of Ukraine from occupied and annexed Donetsk and Kharkiv.

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, while considering the conscription plan has not yet signed it, though it's been sitting on his desk since June. Ukraine's military leaders foresee the need to mobilize up to 500,000 people, according to President Zelenskyy, awaiting a comprehensive package including a blueprint for troop rotations and leaves. An urgency that cannot remain unaddressed as Ukraine counters an adversary with forces that far outnumber Ukraine's; while Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree expanding Russia's armed services.

But there is also good news. While commander-in-chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi revealed that his troops had retreated from Marinka, leaving it in the hands of Russia, the city Russia has taken control of is in ruins, despite its strategic location. Also news is that the Ukrainian air force shot down 13 of 19 drones that Russia launched at the Odesa and Mykolaiv regions. The several not shot down caused infrastructure damage, but no casualties. 

 

Aftermath of the attack on a Russian ship in Russian-occupied Feodosia in eastern Crimea in the early hours of Dec. 26, 2023. (Photo: Ukrainska Pravda / Crimean Telegram channels)

And there was good news in that Ukraine's military destroyed a large Russian landing ship docked in a Russian-occupied Crimean port in an overnight attack, another major blow on Russia's already limping Black Sea Fleet. Landing ship Novocherkassk was hit at the city of Feodosia's base by guided missiles launched by planes. According to the Ukrainian Air Force the port of Feodosia was attacked around 2:30 am.

The contested peninsula of eastern Crimea was the port's location, in Moscow's illegal possession since 2014. Fire, followed by a massive explosion could be seen from kilometres' distance, verified by Storyful, a social media intelligence firm; shot at the right time and place to coincide with the attack. "The Russian fleet has become smaller", Ukrainian air force Cmdr. Mykola Oleschuk said mockingly, urging Russians to leave Crimea "while it's not too late". 

Designed to land troops and vehicles during amphibious assaults, the 370-foot long ship was capable of carrying ten tanks and 340 personnel, while the regular crew numbered 87. Ukrainian authorities believed the ship was carrying an ammunitions shipment and possibly that included drones. "Photos have already emerged where there is only a skeleton left out of the ship, everything else was burned down", noted air force spokesperson Yurii Ihnat.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said President Vladimir Putin had been briefed about the attack.   (Reuters: Sputnik/Alexei Danichev/Pool)