Asymmetrical Warfare

"This is making the missile the preeminent weapon of the 21st century, with the potential to undermine deterrence and stability."

"[Warfare followed a simple physical law: The further you fired your projectile, the less accurate it became. Overcoming distance was a problem supplanted by the solution of] mass and energy."

"Now, wars are won by information."

"[These new technologies allow] the many and the small -- ] Iranians, Houthis, Hezbollah, Hamas -- ] to slip the heavy punches of their opponents, because they are well hidden and can strike back with accurate blows of their own." 

Professor emeritus of defense analysis U.S. Naval Postgraduate School 

David vs. Goliath: Cost Asymmetry in Warfare   Photo by parilov/Adobe Stock

  

Disparity in Power: At its core, asymmetric warfare hinges on a significant imbalance in military strength. The weaker side, lacking the resources and conventional military might of a state actor, must innovate and adapt unconventional strategies to level the playing field.

Unconventional Tactics: Guerrilla warfare, ambushes, sabotage, and terrorism are quintessential tactics of asymmetric warfare. These methods aim to maximize damage to the stronger force while minimizing losses for the weaker side, showcasing the ingenuity and resourcefulness of asymmetric actors.

Blurred Lines: Asymmetric warfare often blurs the distinction between combatants and civilians. Insurgents may operate within civilian populations, making it challenging for the stronger force to discern between military targets and innocent bystanders, complicating the ethical and strategic dimensions of conflict.

Terrorism: In the arsenal of weaker actors facing off against more potent adversaries, terrorism emerges as a potent tool for disrupting stability and exerting influence. Characterized by its asymmetrical nature, terrorism encompasses a spectrum of violent acts aimed at civilian populations or non-combatant targets, leveraging fear and intimidation to achieve political, ideological, or strategic objectives. Whether through bombings, shootings, or cyberattacks, terrorist groups exploit vulnerabilities in security systems to inflict disproportionate harm and sow chaos. Strategically employed, terrorism aims to erode the morale of the adversary, undermine confidence in government institutions, and provoke reactions that may inadvertently galvanize support for the terrorist cause. As such, terrorism remains a defining feature of asymmetric warfare, presenting complex challenges for security and counterterrorism efforts on a global scale.

Hamas and Hezbollah serve as prominent examples of non-state actors engaged in proxy warfare against Israel, receiving support from Iran. Employing rocket attacks and other unconventional tactics, these groups highlight the intricate interplay between asymmetric and proxy warfare in the region, further complicating conflict dynamics.  

 

 

It was a strike of genius, a scheme whose planning was exquisite in nature, secretive and ultimately successful catching the enemy -- in this case Hezbollah -- off guard when on September 17 and 18 of 2024 pagers and other handheld electronic devices used by members of the terror group, their fighters, officers, medics and civilian supporters became victims when Israel detonated them in a surprise attack that did not require the presence of IDF soldiers. Dozens were killed by the surprise explosions and an estimated 3,000 wounded. Altogether some 1,500 Hezbollah fighters put out of business due to their injuries.

 

A fairly small quantity of explosives cunningly lay in wait for the unsuspecting users of those handheld electronic communication devices. They were remotely ignored on schedule. It took but a few hours for Israel's scheme to demoralize an implacable enemy when a significant number of Hezbollah fighters were killed and wounded. The scheme's success owed to vital information that afforded Israel that rare one-time opportunity. Knowledge of how, where and when to strike for the greatest impact. Low-tech allied with clever manipulation of physical resources and knowledge of the enemy. 

 

People gather as smoke rises from a mobile shop in Sidon, Lebanon September 18, 2024. REUTERS/Hassan Hankir

 

Israel,  however, is not the only entity that is making great use of the supreme utility of information/intelligence and low-cost technology in a combination that frustrates and demoralizes an enemy while allowing the users to make the gains of time and stalemate. This was not Israel's only venture into that low-key, big-impact type of warfare, confusing and confounding its enemies. In February, Israel acting with U.S. intelligence snuffed out over 40 senior Iranian leaders at a high-level meeting where they gathered in a single Tehran compound. Iran's national security elite wiped out with one accurately-aimed airstrike.

 

Smoke rises following an explosion, after Israel and the United States launched strikes on Tehran, Iran, on February 28, 2026. Majid Asgaripour/WANA (West Asia News Agency)/Reuters

 

This was followed by the Iranian regime's own cunning plan to undercut the American victory that had levelled its airports, destroyed its seaports, smashed its political/military infrastructure, left it leaderless, the elite commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps decimated, but not without canny intellectual resources that conspired to unsettle the globe when it closed off the Strait of Hormuz to shipping and relentlessly bombed surrounding Arab/Muslim countries that allowed their territory to house American military outposts. 

 

Long under economic sanctions Iran still was able to develop a massive arsenal of missiles and drones, with a little help from its friends in China and Russia to gain more sophisticated technology. Its fairly inexpensive missiles and drones saw it fighting back at Israel and the United States, while inflicting some considerable damage to U.S. assets in the region. The U.S. aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln with its almost 5,700 personnel found itself under duress of restocking supplies when Iranian missiles and attack drones destroyed the Bahrain-based American supply base. 

 

That coup was followed up with an Iranian missile destroying a $500-million radar operating a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system at a U.S. air base in Jordan signalling "a potentially transformative moment" in the "strategic contest" between Iran and the United States and Israel according to the Defence Security Asia journal. The IRGC sent their missile to strike the THAAD radar system maneuvering it in flight for a flanking attack on the radar striking it at a vulnerable angle, after having evaded detection and interception.

 

Vessels near the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, Aug. 31, 2026.

Stringer | Reuters

 

One for All, and All for One! Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan Alliance

"[Joint statement announcing the signing of the] Mecca Joint Defence Agreement."

"[A] shared commitment to further strengthening collective security and to promoting peace, security and stability in the region and beyond."

Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Pakistan 

 

"The agreement does not represent an effort to establish a military axis or a sectarian bloc."

"Nor is it linked to any nuclear ambitions or arms race. Rather it is focused on building sustainable capabilities."

"[The agreement] does not constitute a threat to the security of any country in the region."

Saudi Deputy Minister for Public Diplomacy Rayed Krimly 

 

"[The alignment] is clearly oriented toward Iran and meant to address Iran's new strategic approach which is geared toward dominance of the broader Gulf region."

"[The fact that Turkey and Pakistan border Iran means they could exercise a different kind of leverage [on Tehran]."

Umar Karim, Saudi foreign policy expert, University of Birmingham, England

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif sign a trilateral joint defense agreement Friday in Mecca, Saudi Arabia.  Murat Cetinmuhurdar / Anadolu via Getty Images

 

What an alliance. Saudi Arabia, the keeper of the holiest site in Islam; Mecca. Turkey, with its second-largest military within the membership of the North American Treaty Organization. And Pakistan, the sole Islamic country that possesses nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia has been confronted by Iran over its custodianship of Mecca. Since Turkey is a member of NATO, should it be attacked by a regional antagonist like Iran, would that bring the NATO alliance into conflict to protect one of its members? As a nuclear power, Pakistan is not exactly the most stable of countries, beset by its own version of the Taliban. 

 

What an alliance of insecure, tribal, sectarian, ancient-antipathies-alive-to-the-present we have here. A trifecta of genuine Islamist Sunni states prepared to confront the Iranian Shi'ite Axis of 'Resistance'. Mind, they do have a lot in common. Each of those Sunni nations view the presence of a Jewish state in the Middle East as a grave offence against Islam's most sacred concept, that land once consecrated to Islam can never return to the aegis of another religion. Never mind that Judean ancestral heritage long predated the appearance of Islam by millennia.

 

As though to emphasize that the Sunni alliance is meant for the promotion of peace and stability in the region, only a few days earlier, Pakistan’s Defense Minister Khawaja Asif, stated that his country considers that "Israel is a threat to the entire Muslim world", calling for "a united military front" against it, just a day after Pakistan signed the joint defense agreement with Saudi Arabia and Turkey. "In the context of Israel, all Muslim countries must unite. I have no doubt about this" said Asif.

 

Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis attacked a Saudi Aramco refinery on Sunday, two days after Saudi Arabia forged a defense pact with Turkey and Pakistan. The alliance pledges mutual defense, which means an armed attack on any one member counts as an attack on all. But after Sunday’s attack, it was not immediately clear whether Turkey or Pakistan would respond.  Democracy Now

 

Not to be outdone by Pakistan, Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan always has an opinion about Israel, with his opinions anything but friendly in the least, despite his sanctimonious statements in support of peace and stability in the region. Obviously peace and stability does not include Israel's presence. The champion of Hamas who celebrates the terrorist group's role in 'resistance', claims that Turkey feels threatened by Israel's attacks on Syria and Lebanon. In the former event, protecting the Syrian Druze community against deadly aggression, and in the latter, fighting back against Hezbollah terrorists sending rockets into Israeli communities in the Golan.

 

But for Erdogan it is Israel that is at fault for "aggression" that poses a threat to the world, and must be stopped. "If the Israeli thuggery is not stopped, the consequences will be borne by the entire region and all of humanity", Erdogan thundered in Turkey's parliament. "Israel must be stopped; this is the duty of humanity and the humanitarian front. History must not be allowed to repeat itself", he righteously spouted.

 

And as though modelled on NATO, the foreign ministry of Pakistan explained the pact would recognize that an attack on any member would be regarded as an attack on all; a rule that was "intended to strengthen collective deterrence". One, however, "not aimed at any particular country". 

 

This image taken from video broadcast by Al-Masirah TV, a Houthi-controlled news channel, shows an explosion at the Sanaa International Airport compound during what the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen said were several Saudi airstrikes in Sanaa, Yemen, July 13, 2026. (Al-Masirah TV via AP)

 

Saudi Arabia is being attacked anew by the Houthis in Yemen. That terrorist group is yet another Iranian proxy, doing the work for the Islamic Republic, the head of the snake that calls itself the Axis of Resistance. Yet that attack has gone unaddressed by this new coalition. Saudi Arabia has responded to the Houthi attacks by counterattacking them, and not the source of their orders, which is Iran. Iran is the sole source responsible for the agitation, fear and absolute instability wracking the region.

 

Yet the regional powers that have been targeted by the Islamic Republican Guard Corps that really run the country now, while seeking to protect themselves and their geographic installations from the destructive Iranian missiles and drones sent their way, fail repeatedly to go on the offensive and counter-attack, putting an end to decades of insecurity wrought by Shi'ite Iran in its deliberate goal to entirely destabilize the region and ensconce itself as the Persian uber-nation in control of the Arab Sunni Middle East.  

"Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan are not trying to replace the United States. They are building the capacity to protect their interests when Washington cannot or will not do so."

"[Riyadh, in particular], wants several layers of security rather than one American umbrella [following the shock of the Iran war]."

Andreas Krieg, King's College London 

Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, accompanied by their ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defence, pose after signing a joint defence agreement in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, August 7, 2026. Saudi Press Agency/Handout via REUTERS

"The U.S. Military Might Just Finish The Job"

"[The U.S. strikes were in response to the attacks on shipping]; if it happens again, it will get much worse!" 

"Anything that happens is going to happen very fast." 

"[The U.S. military might] just finish the job."

U.S. President Donald J. Trump  

 

"He made it very clear that, based on the assessments of CENTCOM -- and I remember those -- the expectation was much higher as far as Iran's ability to close the Strait of Hormuz or the scope of the attacks. So it really shows that CENTCOM has been able to really effectively degrade those operations by the Iranians."

"Oil is flowing out of the Strait of Hormuz. There were -- U.S. energy secretary today said that 15 million barrels of oil is coming out of the Strait of Hormuz. There were oil tankers that were coming out of the Strait of Hormuz last night, kind of coming closer to the coast of Oman."

"So, Iranians' ability has been degraded to really -- to do what they were able to do at the beginning. And I think if you continue with these strikes, you're going to see that Iranians kind of that -- the arm of their threat to the Strait of Hormuz being rolled back."

"I think CENTCOM has the ability to do it. I think you're going to see these airstrikes continue to target those launching pads, naval assets, and then it could be possible that CENTCOM, U.S. Central Command or NAVCENT, they're going to get more involved in escorting the ships out of the Strait of Hormuz."

Miad Maleki, Foundation for the Defense of Democracies  

United States President Donald Trump arrives aboard Air Force One at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York, July 17, 2026. / AP PHOTO/JACQUELYN MARTIN

 

Tehran has been targeting American assets (military bases) across the Middle East, reflecting the largest escalation in hostilities since the signing of the Memorandum of Understanding between the United States and the Iranian regime that put a halt to the conflict initiated jointly by the U.S. and Israel in February aerial assaults. A month following the MOA signing Iran has accused US. forces of hitting civilian and energy infrastructure, including an airport, a railway station and two bridges. 

 

State media reported eight dead and 20 wounded in Friday overnight attacks.

 

It takes a bit of naive credulity to imagine the Islamic Republic being concerned over eight of its citizens dead and 20 wounded in view of its record of habitually treating its own as enemy combatants when Iranians from time to time converge in public to denounce the regime for its overwhelming human rights abuses practised against its own population. Its defense of its population against the strikes imposed by a foreign power far more concerned over the welfare of long-suffering Iranians than their government is ludicrous.

 

American strikes have expanded, focusing on Iranian infrastructure, as promised by the U.S. President. Citizens were informed by their energy ministry to reduce  electricity usage, switch off air conditioners during peak hours in view of the fact that the power grid is under strain from what it identified as American strikes on energy facilities in southern Iran. Hard to estimate how much more inconvenient this is for Iranians than the total closing of internet imposed by the regime during the height of the protests opposing the regime back in January.

 

Smoke rises from an Israeli attack on the Sharam Oil Depot in Tehran, Iran  June 15, 2026  West Asia News Agency, Reuters

 

 In view of the renewed attacks by the U.S. military following Iran's continued striking of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the Iranian military threatened strikes against "all infrastructure across the region" would follow any strikes on its own infrastructure. Friday saw it launching widespread strikes on its Gulf neighbours, following an exchange of fire, the largest since the MOA was signed a month earlier. U.S. military sites in Kuwait were targeted Friday, a power and water plant damaged by an Iranian attack. Kuwait in turn urged its citizens to "ration their electricity consumption".

 

The Islamic Revolutionary Guards claimed to have targeted US. radar systems and military aircraft in Qatar to "punish the aggressor". Doha, on the other hand, stated the missile attack had been intercepted. Two American radar sites in Oman as well as the Al-Tanf military base in Syria were also attacked by the IRGC. The Syrian military, however, denied that claim, noting that U.S. forces had withdrawn from the base earlier in the year.

 

According to the Jordanian military, three Iranian missiles had been shot down (forgetting to mention that it was Israel that shot them down for Jordan). In Iraq, Kurdish forces explained that the U.S.-led coalition had shot down several drones over Erbil. Iraq's Kurdistan region saw strikes that killed eight members of an Iranian Kurdish armed opposition group, by an Iranian attack. Tehran targeted US. helicopters and planes at an airbase in Bahrain, according to Iranian state media, causing the island nation to urge its citizens to take shelter. 

 

Tehran and Washington have been trading fire for eight days following a  battle over the Strait of Hormuz. According to Iran's health ministry at least 38 people were killed and over 400 injured in the country with the resumption of fighting. This, from a regime that has most recently murdered thousands of its citizens in December/January, injured and imprisoned many thousands more, who had called for their reviled, persecuting government to stand down. 

 

 

 

 

Death To America -- One Ship At A Time

"The United States is imposing a heavy cost by continuing to degrade Iran's ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships freely transiting the strait."

"[A Cyprus-flagged container ship was hit by Iran and suffered] significant engine room damage [and a civilian crew member is missing]."

U.S. Central Command 

 

"[Multiple vessels] disregarded our warnings and instructions to correct their course and proceed along the approved route. [One of them] was struck by a warning shot and brought to a stop."

"[The strait will remain closed] until further notice. We will consider targeting] additional enemy bases in the region [should more attacks take place]."

Revolutionary Guards Corps 

 

 

The global community has considered the Hormuz Strait to be an international waterway for as long as most shippers could recall. The Islamic Republic, which with Oman sits closest to the strait now feels entitled to proclaim that the strait is under its control. That being the case it is their prerogative to charge ships moving through the strait. The United States, on the other hand, has urged mariners to transit a southern route through the territorial waters of Oman.

 

The IRGC has discussed the situation with Oman, a long-time supporter of the Islamic Republic, to convince its neighbour that they should both be exacting transit fees from ships transiting each 'their' side of the waterway, treating it as a legitimate commercial enterprise to benefit each country. Oman has stated that it and Iran have agreed to continue discussions on the Strait of Hormuz "at the technical and political levels".

 

A statement confirmed by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi who had himself stated prior to the new round of strikes -- with the United States and Iran once again blaming each other for stepping away from the Memorandum of Understanding that was to have led to a cessation of kinetic hostilities -- that he had met with his Oman counterpart to discuss "appropriate mechanisms for ensuring the safe passage of ships".

 

Vessels navigate the Strait of Hormuz, as seen from Musandam, Oman, on Wednesday. (Reuters)

 

For the present, Iran has announced the closure once more of the Strait of Hormuz, following a warning shot fired by its military that struck a vessel that it claimed was making use of an 'unauthorized' route through the waterway, jeopardizing the fragile ceasefire agreement with the United States. It took little time for the United States to respond, when U.S. Central Command announced its forces had re-initiated a third round of strikes against Iran. 

 

Explosions took place in Bandar Abbas and Sirik, two towns along the shores of the strait. Negotiations to further cement last month's agreement to end the war will now have its progress halted without securing the strait, according to senior U.S. officials in Washington. With Iran's notification that it had closed the strait again to shipping, the U.S. announced its new strike rounds.

 

"Iran made a poor choice Now they pay", stated Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth on social media. Iran and Oman's foreign ministers Saturday meeting to discuss the strait that intersects their shores after days of Iranian attacks on ships and U.S. retaliation dealing a blow to the interim deal to end the war precipitated the latest flurry of shots from both sides.

 

A man holds a poster of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in a gathering commemorating him at a square in Tehran on Saturday.Vahid Salemi/AP

Still unseen in public since February's first aerial bombardment by the U.S. and Israel of Iran's targeted leaders, its nuclear installations and weapons depots, Iran's new supreme leader's first statement since his father's funeral was Iran's intention to avenge the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei's statement carried on state television hours following U.S. President Donald Trump's threat of continued missile attacks was that such revenge "is the will of our nation and must certainly be carried out".  

"We pledge to avenge the blood of the martyred leader and all the martyrs of these two wars from the criminal and disgraced killers."

"This vengeance is the will of our nation and must inevitably be carried out. These criminals — of whom we have a complete list from top to bottom — will take with them to their graves the wish for a peaceful death in bed."

"This matter depends neither on my personal existence nor on that of other officials. Whether we are present or not, it will come to pass. Soon individuals among the freedom-seekers across the world will each carry out part of this divine mission."

Supreme Leader Mujtaba Khamenei  

A Hezbollah supporter flashes a victory sign while holding a poster of Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei during a gathering against the US-Israeli military operation with Iran and its allies in Dahiyeh, Lebanon, Wednesday, June 10, 2026. (AP Photo/Bilal Hussein)

 

The Intransigent, Defiant, Deadly Islamic Republic

"They asked for a time out [from military action]. They wanted to go to the funeral of Khamenei. And I said, ‘Give it to them.’ And they started shooting missiles. I mean, it was the craziest thing."

"I don’t want to deal with them anymore. They’re scum. You know what scum is? They’re scum. They’re sick people. They’re led by sick people and they’re vicious, violent people. And if they had a nuclear weapon, they’d use it. As far as I’m concerned, it’s over."

"They’re liars. If I make a deal with them, we have a deal. And he [the Iranian negotiator] goes out, he talks. We make a deal, everyone’s agreed: no nuclear weapon. We make a deal, they [the Iranian delegation] go outside, talk to the press, and they say, ‘We never even talked about it.’ There’s something wrong with them. They’re cuckoo. As far as I’m concerned, it’s over."

U.S. President Donald Trump

 

 

On again, off again. Decisions made spontaneously reflecting an impulsive of-the-moment thought process, leavened with emotional irritation. An incendiary situation whose outcome is vital to the well-being not only of the population of the Islamic Republic who have suffered since 1979 under the theocratic rule of a totalitarian state imposing its will, meting out imprisonment, torture and death to all who oppose it. And to the larger community inhabiting the Middle East, as the source of inciting to terrorism through sponsorship of select militias whose formation is vital to the regime's agenda of conquest where the al-Quds branch of the Islamic Republican Guard Corps recruited, trained, armed and  tasked them as proxy militias to carry out its death-cult orders.

 

From Hezbollah to Hamas to Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Iraqi Shia militias all loyal to the regime, the noose tightened not only on Israel, marked for annihilation by the Ayatollahs, but Sunni-majority countries in the region as well; not for annihilation but the conquest of domination. Its weapons' focus as a means to assert its dominance through technological means with missiles and drones, and aspirationally, a nuclear program to allow the Iranian regime to wield the most fearful of all weapons to achieve its goals.

 

 

 

Upended briefly and temporarily when joint aerial strikes by Israel and the United States complicated those plans by assassinating through pinpoint, intelligence-gathered strikes, military commanders, religious figures, including the most senior  cleric whose direct messaging from above moved the strings of the dread and powerful IRGC puppets to action along with nuclear scientists, and strategic strikes on nuclear sites and weapons depots. Any other country would reel from the strength of those blows, but not Iran.

 

It had only months earlier destroyed the lives of thousands of its disaffected people whose effrontery  in massing by the tens of thousands in street demonstrations throughout the country to demand an end to the regime, and the right to live as free people, enjoying liberty as a human right, refusing the straitjackets of passivity in fear of consequences. Their punishment by state police, the Basij and the  Iranian military was swift, decisive and deadly. Battling military-to-military of two well-armed attacking countries required another tack; the manipulation of circumstances and in this case cutting off global shipping to inflict pain internationally. 

"They want recognition of Iran basically having control of the Strait of Hormuz. That is their bottom line. That is their leverage with the United States and the West that has replaced earlier enriching higher and higher levels of uranium."

"Fundamentally, they think time is on their side. They can suffer more than the Americans and the Gulf and that's what they're gambling on."

Alex Vatanka, senior fellow, Middle East Institute 

The Strait of Hormuz became the winning move for Iran in this chess game of a war. Following the February 28-initiated strikes on Iran, since April 8, President Trump declared one ceasefire initiative with Iran after another as oil prices gushed skyward and Washington grappled with the dilemma of lifting itself out of a quagmire it had no stomach to pursue, in a war that proved hugely unpopular with American voters. This was a president who had given the impression that he meant what he said; no more U.S. troops involved in endless MidEast wars.

 

 

 

Instead, Mr. Trump had to focus on the measure that Iran took to disrupt world energy supplies, along with fertilizer and other critical supplies to a dependent world. Any tankers or cargo ships leaving the Gulf States for their usual destinations crossing through the Strait risked Iranian drones or missiles and before long ships one after another were stranded awaiting an opportunity that never came. Then came the system of fees inaugurated by the IRGC for safe passage. Followed by negotiations and a Memo of Understanding and the war footing went limp, all in abeyance.

 

While the U.S. administration faces the democratic anger of its population persuading it to leaven its actions accordingly, no such constraints face the Islamic Republic, for its population is forcibly mute and as much as it detests its government, the fear, anger and resentment of up to 35,000 lives destroyed only a few months ago, acts as an anchor to further action against a government that will not be dislodged. The Islamic regime has decided to wait things out. Until enough pressure from the U.S. public and the international community against a continuation of the war, forces the U.S. military to withdraw. 

 

US Vice President JD Vance speaks to members of the media before boarding Air Force Two, after the US and Iran held high-level talks at the Lake Lucerne Summit, at Emmen Military Air Base, Emmen, Switzerland, June 22, 2026. Photo: REUTERS/Nathan Howard/Pool

 

"Iran is trying to avoid another full-scale war. But it also believes that failing to respond caries its own risks because it would project weakness and invite further pressure."

"Iran's calculation is that calibrated, limited escalation can restore deterrence without crossing the threshhold into all-out war."

Negar Nirtazavi, senior fellow, Center for International Policy 

   

In Defiance of Trump's Deal -- Israel's Survival

"[Iranian officials pushed to include a clause in the interim agreement finalized earlier this week requiring Israel to leave] the security zone in Lebanon."

"The prime minister said to the U.S. President: 'We understand the concerns, but this is a critical issue for our national security and we won't pull out'."

Zev Elkin, security cabinet member, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ally 

June 18: Khamenei okays MOU in written statement, says talks with US do ‘not mean accepting its views’

 

The agreement reached between the United States and Iran had no input from Israel. This, despite that the aerial attacks launched on February 28 on the Islamic Republic was a joint enterprise shared by both Israel and the United States in a unified stance against the Iranian regime ever breaking the barrier toward achieving nuclear weaponry through its stealth uranium enrichment enterprise. That partnership broke down when Israel was excluded from negotiations carried on between Pakistan and Qatar as intermediaries between the U.S. and Iran, to achieve a ceasefire deal and end to the conflict.

 

And because Israel was not a member of the negotiations -- even though any such arrangement as was negotiated based on Iran's 'word of honour' that it had no intention of achieving nuclear arms, even while it threatened to destroy Israel, and its terrorist militias, Hamas, Hezbollah, Islamic Jihad and the Yemeni Houthis were all delegated by Iran to take part in a pincer-movement of destroying Israel -- there was no expectation incumbent upon Israel to heed any of the conditions it felt to be inimical to its own survival.

 

President Trump made no secret of his disapproval of Israel's ongoing incursion into southern Lebanon, the stronghold of the Hezbollah-Lebanese terrorist group whose rockets continued to rain down on Israel at the behest of Iran whose proxies tend to respond to commands from the Shiite Islamist fundamentalist state that have been formed, trained and armed by the al Quds arm of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, the power behind the Ayatollahs' throne of command.

 

Trump insists Iran deal will open Strait of Hormuz 'toll-free' as he meets world leaders  BBC News

 

That being so, Israel did not appear to hesitate when rejecting the U.S. request to withdraw its troops from Lebanon, not as long as Hezbollah controlled Lebanon, despite the complications that ensued between the 'partnership' of Israel/U.S. defense coalition. The U.S./Iran agreed-upon interim deal stipulates hostilities must ease on all fronts, including -- at Iran's insistence -- in Lebanon, where Israel has been fighting a parallel war ever since Hezbollah attacked Israel in response to the joint attack on Iran. 

 

President Trump's dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Netanyahu's ongoing commitment in the face of Israeli security challenged by Iran's proxies and Iran itself, to continue its defensive offences has been publicly stated much to Israel's chagrin; re-stated more emphatically by Vice-President JD Vance in fairly offensive terms verging as close to rabid antisemitism as conceivable, helping to shake Israeli confidence in steadfast American support for Israel's survival.

 

On the other hand, a senior U.S. official stated that Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon did not represent a condition of the deal; that Israel, in the opinion of the U.S. administration has the right to respond to any attacks by Hezbollah. Scathing condemnation from JD Vance, aside, which assurances is Israel to pin its decision-making upon? Grin and bear Mr. Trump's truculent insults, and turn aside from his vice's commentary, or put stock in what other Trump officials interpret...?

 

Israel has committed to destroying Hezbollah's capacity to continue lobbing rockets and drones into Israeli territory. So it continues to forge deeper into southern Lebanon, to oust Hezbollah from its perch there. In discussions with the Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, Israel has assured him that any territory it clears of Hezbollah's threatening presence, while degrading its weaponry stockpiles and eliminating its leaders, will be turned over to the Lebanese National Army, in 'pilot' zones.

 

Lebanon's President Aoun has accused Tehran of using Lebanon as a bargaining chip. The Hezbollah drone incursions led Israel to bomb Beirut on June 14, enraging President Trump. As insurance, Israel now focuses on new means whereby it can neutralize the threat the drones pose, hoping to be able to sidetrack responses that would once again raise tensions with Washington. According to PM Netanyahu, Hezbollah's pre-war arsenal of 150,000 rockets have been reduced to 12,000; still capable of more than ample damage.  

 

 

 Smoke rises from Israeli bombardment near the village of Kfar Tibnit in southern Lebanon on June 14, 2026. AFP via Getty Images

Canadian Hypocrisy at the United Nations

Canada’s misleading denial that it nominated Iran to UN body addressing women’s rights & terror prevention   UN Watch

 

"There have been incorrect reports on social media about Canada’s position on the nomination of Iran to the United Nations Economic and Social Council Committee for Programme and Coordination – an advisory body with no decision-making role. Iran was nominated as part of the Asia-Pacific Group."

"Canada is not a member of the group and did not endorse or vote for this nomination. There was no vote, as per established procedures."

"Canada does not support Iran for positions of influence within the United Nations. We will continue to actively work with partners to counter Iranian candidacies."

Global Affairs, Canada  

 

"Canada’s foreign ministry made a misleading statement on X.com to mask the fact it allowed the nomination of the Islamic Republic of Iran to a UN committee that addresses critical issues including women’s rights and terrorism prevention — failing to object as the US did, and as Canada and EU states have done in the past."

"The fact is that Canada, as a member of the 54-nation UN Economic and Social Council, participated in the consensus nomination of the Islamic Republic of Iran to the UN Committee for Programme and Coordination on April 8, 2026."

"This committee deals with budget priorities and program coordination on critical issues, and will meet soon, May 14-21, to address women’s rights, human rights, and terrorism prevention."

"At a minimum, Canada should have taken the floor to object that it is wrong to nominate a regime that only months ago massacred thousands of protesters, and that brutally oppresses women, tortures political prisoners, and systematically violates basic human rights."

"This is exactly what the United States did in that meeting. It was the only country that formally objected and disassociated itself from the consensus decision, citing Iran’s appalling record on women’s rights.

Canada and other Western democracies, however, remained silent and allowed the consensus to pass in ECOSOC, a body of which Canada is a member."

UN Watch

 

"The United States disassociates from consensus on the nomination of Iran to the Committee on Program and Co-ordination."

"The regime threatens its neighbours and has for decades infringed on the Iranian people's ability to exercise their basic human rights."

"Due to these and other concerns, we believe Iran is unfit to serve on a body advising member states on program and budgetary matters."

U.S. Ambassador Dan Negrea 

The Security Council chamber at the United Nation in New York City. Photo by Spencer Platt /Getty Images

 

Canada obligingly assisted  in the approval of a motion for the Islamic Republic of Iran -- that would be the Iranian regime that just a few months earlier responded to nation-wide protests against the regime by dispatching police, the IRGC and Basij to violently disband the protests by all and any means, leading to the killing of an estimated 30,000 Iranians and the arrests and death sentences of untold numbers of 'enemies of the Islamic Republic' -- to a position on the UN's Committee for Program and Coordination.

 

Iranian-Canadians who desperately wish for the Ayatollah-led, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps-enforced Republic to fall, and yearn for the freedom from oppression that would mean for their families in Iran, would have reacted to the news of this incredible betrayal with disbelief. While at the same time, the infiltrated members of the regime and the IRGC that have made a home for themselves in Canada would have beamed with pleasure. Just as Hamas has on occasion congratulated the ruling Liberal government for some of its decisions, now the Iranian regime was given the same opportunity.

 

Officially, for internal consumption, the Liberal government of prime minister Mark Carney denied any such reports; that they did no such thing. The actual facts belie that assertion. Canada gave aid and comfort to a regime under the duress of a conflict brought by the State of Israel and the U.S. military launching an aerial war on the regime, its military, the IRGC, their weapons depots and rocket launchers and nuclear sites. While the Iranian regime presents a distinct danger with its nuclear ambitions and its sponsorship of terrorist groups to the world at large and the Middle East in particular, Canada's government calls for a ceasefire so the regime can survive.

 

Canada's decision at the April 8 meeting of the UN Economic and Social Council enables Iran to have an advisory and oversight role on programs as diverse as gender equality and terrorism prevention, as well as 'peaceful uses of outer space'. Global Affairs Canada's insistence that Canada's role in the event has been misunderstood, is an evasive and shameful tactic in a bid to shield the government from the shame and blame it most certainly deserves for betraying the most elemental foundations of human rights against tyrannical rule. 

 

Official video from the UN Economic and Social Council, most recently chaired by Bob Rae, Canada's ambassador to the UN, showed an official chairing a plenary session of the council where the Islamic Republic of Iran was included on a list of countries set to be appointed to a three-year term on the Committee for Program and Co-ordination. With no objections from the representatives of the assembled countries, the officiating individual bangs a gavel and declares: "It is so decided". 

 

And Canada helped in that decision; not a word of doubt expressed of the inappropriateness of a corrupt, terror-promoting, nation known for persecuting its own people -- much less its violence visited upon Iranian women who dare to oppose strictures placed upon their most basic of human rights -- sitting on such a committee from Canada.

 

Screenshot from a UN live stream showing the precise moment that a plenary session of the UN Economic and Social Council approved the nomination of the Islamic Republic of Iran to a UN oversight committee. Photo by UN

 

Canada's Liberal Government Ignoring Iranian Infiltration in Canada At our Peril

"[I was contacted by Ottawa police and] told if I don't delete my X posts where I say mosques in Occupied Iran are hubs of terrorism and should be bombed, I would be charged under the Criminal Code of Canada."

"So I deleted my posts." (April X post)

"We know that the Islamic Republic is incredibly vicious. They’ve been oppressing us for the last 47 years. And so we knew that the closer it gets to the end, the more vicious and more brutal the Islamic Republic is going to be. Despite all of this, Iranians are more determined than ever to overthrow the Islamic Republic. It’s literally now or never. It’s life or death. So we are right now in the middle of the Iranian revolution, and the fight is not over yet. We still have a long way to go, but Iranians are mobilized. They’re determined."

"We’re seeing millions of Iranians out in the streets chanting “Death to the dictator, Death to the Islamic Republic.” They’re also chanting, “this is the final battle. Pahlavi will return.” Pahlavi, of course, is his royal highness, the crown prince of Iran. And the reason that they’re calling for Pahlavi to return is because Pahlavi is the only person that Iranians trust to transition them from a totalitarian Islamic dictatorship into a functioning secular, democratic society."

"At the same time, we’re also seeing horrific footage of Islamic regime terrorists who are literally just opening fire, shooting into crowds of unarmed Iranians. But, we’re also seeing videos of Iranians who are fighting back. Some of them are using homemade Molotov cocktails. I don’t condone violence, but when you have a population that’s unarmed and being brutally murdered, this is how Iranians are fighting back. At this point, Iranians have nothing left to lose, and these are the true freedom fighters of the 21st century." (January 2026 interview)

"Mosques in occupied Iran are hubs of terrorism. Burn them down. Bomb them." (X)

Goldie Ghamarie, Iranian-Canadian activist, former Ontario MLA  

Goldie Ghamari, a prominent critic of the Iranian regime and former Ontario MPP, threatened with criminal charges over an X post that linked the IRGC to mosques in Iran. Ashley Fraser/Postmedia News

 

 Goldie Ghamari is credited for what she is, a passionate political activist who advocates for the downfall of the Islamic Republic of Iran's theocratic regime. A regime that has for far too long oppressed and persecuted Iranians, forcing them to submit to radical Islamist fundamentalism, completely altering the society pre-1979, when Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini returned to Iran from exile in France, to engineer the downfall of the Shah of Iran at a time when Iran, under the Shah's rule was a friend and ally of the West.

 

Under the Islamic Republic, all that the West stood for in democratic values was demonized by the theocracy which also made no secret of its plan to destroy another nation in the Middle East, the State of Israel. The regime's hostility to the United States was immediately illustrated when the U.S. Embassy in Tehran was seized by radical Islamist students, and 66 U.S. diplomatic staff were taken hostage in retaliation for the U.S. welcoming Shah Pahlavi for medical treatment and haven.

 

Under the Ayatollah and his ruling mullahs, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the scheme was laid for minority Shiites to form a pincer-like geographic move to challenge the primacy of the Arab Sunni majority in the Middle East through violent insurrection. Aryan Iran under the regime, was determined to become the driving political/cultural/religious/social force, using its oil wealth and the manipulation of Shiite fundamentalism to gain its goal of conquest.

 

That led to its al-Quds division of the IRGC forming Shiite-led militias trained, armed and loyal to the regime to act as its enforcement arms locally and abroad. In Lebanon the Hezbollah militia was formed, separate and apart of and a challenge to, the official Lebanese military. As was Islamic Jihad. Hamas, the governing group in Gaza, came under Iranian aegis as well, as did tribal Shiite militias in Iraq, prepared to do the Iranian regime's bidding. In Lebanon in the 1980s, Hezbollah introduced itself through suicide bombers who blew up a U.S. military base in Beirut, killing 241 U.S. marines. 

 

BREAKING

I just received a death threat by Islamic Regime-linked hacker group "Handala Hack Team" from the e-mail address: Handala_Team@outlook.com

"Death to Elica le Bon and Goldie Ghamari

 

The X post that Goldie Ghamari was ordered to take down by the Ottawa Police Service was accompanied by a video illustrating an IRGC rally taking place within a Tehran mosque. She was warned she would be charged under Section  319 of the Criminal Code if she failed to comply with the order. This, at a time in Canada when for the last three years mobs of pro-Hamas supporters surged through the streets of Ottawa accusing Israel of 'genocide' for striking back against Palestinian terrorists who slaughtered Jewish children, women and other civilians, in a rampage of rape and dismemberment and hostage-taking.

 

Despite that the protesters wearing masks and keffiyehs chanted hate messages and threats against Jews in Canada, police forces across the country did little to warn them against offending Canada's hate laws in their invective of hate, harassment and threats. An omission of public duty that reflected the federal Liberal government's own lack of responsible reaction, followed by provincial and municipal governments in turn, alongside the nation's police forces, as the marches went on week after week, proclaiming 'globalize the intifada', 'Final Solution', and 'Palestine will be free from the river to the sea'...all understood as threats against the existence of Israel.

 

Iran, through its minions that have infiltrated Canadian society, politics and academia, along with the Muslim Brotherhood and operatives of the regime's terrorist groups, has a malign presence in Canada, threatening the safety and security not only of Canadian Jews, but Iranian-Canadians who detest the Iranian regime and want their country freed from its malevolent tyranny. Goldie Ghamari is one of the leaders of those campaigning for the end of the Islamic Republic. The presence of Iranian proxies in Canada, of members of the IRGC, of the regime itself represents a danger to Canada, their presence ignored by government despite that they are on Canada's terrorist list.

 

Goldie Ghamari has made herself a public figure of great respect, appearing on U.S. cable news and Piers Morgan Uncensored. She has a Iranian affairs YouTube channel with hundreds of thousands subscribers. And she has been threatened by terrorist groups operating out of the North America with assassination. Threats she has relayed to police and with local authorities. An American-Iranian was also threatened with assassination by the same group. A $250,000 beheading bounty was posted for their assassination.

 

FBI Director Kash Patel responded to those threats where Canadian officials failed to: "This FBI will hunt down every actor behind these cowardly death threats and cyberattacks and will bring the full force of American law enforcement down on them", he stated in March. In Canada, Masood Masjoody, an anti-regime Canadian math professor of Iranian birth was was found murdered a month ago. Two Iranians now face charges of first-degree murder in his death.

 

Laptop and source code on the screen composing flag of Iran.

(photo credit: max.ku/Shutterstock)

 

 

"Disrupting and Degrading and Blinding Iran's Ability to See, Communicate and Respond"

"The Iranians are throwing everything they have at this."

"It is all hands on deck."

"If their cyber operators are breathing, then they will be on their keyboards."

Chris Krebs, former director, Cybersecurity and Information Security Agency (CSIA) 

 

"An Iran-linked group calling itself Handala claimed responsibility for a cyberattack on Portage, Michigan-based medical device maker Stryker Corp., carried out on March 11, 2026. Handala said the attack was in retaliation for events related to the conflict in Iran."

"The cyberattack affected Stryker’s internal Microsoft software system, disrupting the company’s order processing, manufacturing and shipping."

"As a scholar who researches cyber conflict, I’ve found that in periods of geopolitical tension such as the current U.S./Israel-Iran war, cyber operations often sit right next to missiles and airstrikes as a tool that states and state-linked groups use to inflict damage, probe weaknesses and signal resolve to their enemies."

"The Stryker case is notable because it shows how quickly a regional conflict can translate into disruption for organizations far from the battlefield. It also illustrates the vulnerabilities of U.S. organizations, including those involved in critical infrastructure."

William Akoto, Assistant Professor of Global Security, American University School of International Service, The Conversation  

Iran has long had sophisticated hacking operations. Jakub Porzycki/NurPhoto via Gettyimages

 

Thousands of Israelis earlier this month received texts purportedly from the IDF that encouraged them to download a fake shelter app. Had they done so, reams of personal data could have been stolen. This, while others in Israel received a mass text that said: "Netanyahu is dead. Death is approaching you and soon the gates of hell will open before you. Before the fire of Iranian missiles destroys you, leave Palestine." An obvious play to strew panic and demoralization. According to cybersecu3rity experts, these messages represent a minuscule portion of a vast cyberwar between Iran, Israel and the United States.

 

Iranian hackers who have stabled themselves in the digital shadows for years are considered among the most reliably battle-hardened operatives Tehran can depend upon in this aspect of the Islamic Republic's existential war of survival. The ploy of sowing fear in the Israeli and American public is a powerful yet little-appreciated weapon remaining at the disposal of the Iranian regime, hoping to see some satisfying results in public chaos and a move in both countries to call off the conflict. These tactics, familiar to both Israeli and American cyber experts who have long engaged in their own counter battle, employ their own.

 

Three different levels of cyber operators have been identified in Iran, with boundaries that are frequently blurry, according to analysts and former cybersecurity officials. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and Iran's Ministry of Intelligence operate the most experienced corps of cyber hackers, with a wide array of front organizations whose purpose is to introduce plausible deniability for attacks and the issuance of public threats.

 

Semi-autonomous hacking proxies, cybercriminals and contractors are also in the hire of the Islamic Republic, with volunteer hackers bringing up the rear to mobilize behind Tehran. Israel-based employees of a large U.S. defence contractor are believed by cyber experts to have been doxxed. Emails of politicians in Albania which hosts an Iranian opposition group have received similar treatment, while a Polish nuclear research centre has been infiltrated. The most sensitive espionage is thought to have gone unreported.

 

A hacking front named as Handala is believed by cybersecurity researchers and the American government to be tied to Iranian intelligence; the hacking group claimed to have wiped 200,000 devices in the most consequential wartime cyber attack against the U.S. ever seen, according to one of the most senior civilian U.S. cybersecurity officials, Chris Krebs. It was Handala that claimed to have broken into FBI director Kash Patel's personal email account, to publish personal photographs.

 

Iranian hackers, no matter their level and association, are not quite the match of the U.S. and Israel with their formidable offensive capabilities, an illustration being the significant damage the Iranian nuclear program sustained in 2009 with the unleashing of the mysterious Stuxnet offensive. According to General Dan Caine, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff, the U.S. launched cyber attacks just prior to the February 28 airstrikes on Iran "disrupting and degrading and blinding Iran's ability to see, communicate and respond".

 

Years ago, Israel's cyber intelligence dealt one of the most telling blows of the war, when it hacked the majority of traffic cameras in Tehran as part of an extensive intelligence-gathering operation preceeding supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's assassination. A popular Iranian prayer app was used by Israel to send notifications to millions inciting regime defections: "Only this way can you save your life for Iran", one of the delivered messages read. 

 

According to analysts in cyber security  Iran's more intensely threatening groups methodically search for vulnerabilities such as entry points to position themselves to target networks. Seedworm, a group the U.S. and U.K. state has links to Iranian intelligence has been identified through attempts to enter U.S. networks since early February, revealed cybersecurity firm Symantec. Resulting in the group being extracted out of a U.S. bank, an airport and software company supplying the defence industry.

 

Iranian cyberhacking is focused on breaking through Israel's hardened cyber defences by launching thousands of wiper attacks on Israeli companies, with success in hitting 50 of them. Security cameras hacked across Israel and the Gulf aided Iran to target drone and missile strikes, pointed out Israeli cybersecurity company Check Point Software. Gill Messing at Check Point added Iranian hackers demonstrated a 'new level' of "scale, effect and sophistication" co-ordinating strikes with the mass text messages sent to Israeli citizens. 

 

There is also speculation that Tehran, in throttling its internet for the purpose of domestic censorship, might have inadvertently set back its own hackers' advances in cyber offences. Although there is  some fear that Iranian hackers may have infiltrated undetected into sensitive economic or military targets, biding time to suck up data. "They could have longterm access that they are not ready to burn", suggested Andy Piazza at cybersecurity firm Palo Alto Networks. 

 

Since war began, Iranian hackers have been at work throughout the Persian Gulf region – and far beyond. Still from YouTube video