Politic?

This is a blog dedicated to a personal interpretation of political news of the day. I attempt to be as knowledgeable as possible before commenting and committing my thoughts to a day's communication.

Tuesday, June 30, 2020

Life and Death Under the Curse of COVID-19

"I was basically told that the government is willing to risk my life to save my life. Let me say that again, my government told me they're willing to let me die, which according to them is for my own safety ..."
"So six months later or so, time for surgery and boom, all non-essential surgeries postponed."
"Heart surgery, apparently considered non-essential. Now I know some say that's non-essential, but it's pretty goddam essential to me. Told me the surgery will bring me peace of mind and a fallback just in case something happens. Now I'm told today possibly could be a year or two?"
"So what, I'm just supposed to kiss my ass goodbye? I'm starting to freak out here. Wondering what I should do?"
"Sorry for the rant folks, just frustrated that the government gets to decide who lives or dies ... I'm willing to get sick and live than die and not get sick ..."
Jerry Dunham, 46, heart failure patient, Alberta

"I vowed to him on his death bed -- with our daughters sobbing for their daddy to wake up -- that his death would not be in vain. I promised him that."
"We're all alternating between feelings of profound sadness, disbelief and total rage."
"How many have had their health deteriorate beyond repair? Why couldn't each province have left some hospitals open to deal with essential surgeries and sickness unrelated to COVID?"
"Our oldest, Reydian, got up on the bed, hugging her dad, begging him, 'Please Daddy, please Daddy, come back to us. Please Daddy, it's Reydian."
Krista Lambier, ex-wife, mother of two daughters



A year and a half ago, 46-year-old Jerry Dunham, a construction worker, hockey player, musician, living in Palmerston Ontario, population 2,500 found he couldn't catch his breath. He was soon diagnosed with congestive heart failure and informed he might need a heart transplant, but in the interim, some tests were needed, he would be put on medications and would be fitted with a defibrillator. He was living there to be close to Kitchener where his ex-wife and their children lived.

When the date came around for his scheduled surgery he was living with his parents, because he could no longer work, as a result of his serious heart issues; his special commercial driver's licence to operate large trucks and equipment had been rescinded. The medication wasn't working as hoped to regulate his heart. No work, he was unable to function and lost his home, his truck and even his residence, returning to Alberta.

At his doctor's office, a nurse informed him that despite his racing heart, the surgery to implant a defibrillator would not proceed, as a result of COVID-19 taking up hospital time and space, since all 'elective surgery' was being postponed. Jerry Dunham didn't think of his impending surgery as 'elective' but necessary, to keep him alive, given his diagnosis and medical condition. He asked to speak with his doctor.
Surgery
Surgeries around the world are being cancelled due to the pandemic.
Image: Unsplash/Jafar Ahmed
He had a scheduled appointment pre-surgery with his doctor. There were no other patients during the time he sat in the doctor's office; no one coming or going. But as he sat in the office for 45 minutes, willing to wait until the doctor could see him, he was informed that the doctor was simply "too busy". It was while he was waiting that he wrote the posts above, on his Facebook page, in sheer desperation.

Two months passed. And on the seventh of June he was admitted to Medicine Hat Regional Hospital with a heart attack. He died of cardiac arrest on May 30, deprived of oxygen to his brain. A close member of his family advocated for the desperate need for surgery for Jerry Dunham, but never received any acknowledgement that anyone had taken his pleas seriously. The Medicine Hat Hospital was the closest location from his parents' home in Redcliff, Albert, a ten-minute drive away.

In the planning stages in Ontario in preparation for an anticipated tidal wave of serious respiratory cases brought on by COVID-19, modelling suggested that elective heart surgery cancellation would cause over 30 deaths by early May. But the cancellation proceeded, on the gamble that more lives would be saved coping with patients on respirators taking up hospital room in ICUs and physician time in caring for them, than devoting a part of the hospital to continuing surgery.

About 200,000 surgeries and other procedures -- cancer and heart surgeries included -- were cancelled while hospitals prepared for a deluge everyone was certain would eventuate, of COVID-19 patients. A spokesperson with Alberta Health wrote: "All urgent, emergency and cancer surgeries have been available throughout the pandemic. Albertans who need urgent surgery will get it. AHS has indicated that they are not aware of any deaths due to cancellations of scheduled surgeries."

When Jerry Dunham was taken off the ventilator his wife was informed that he would die within minutes or hours. He lived for another two-and-a-half days, before finally expiring. In the end, he had spent more time in intensive care following his deadly heart attack -- entirely preventable had his surgery proceeded -- than he would have done, with the implant of a defibrillator that was ultimately denied him.

Krista Lambier was asked did the family wish his death to be recorded as a COVID-19 death. "I said, 'no. He tested negative for COVID-19. That'd be a flat-out lie." She thinks now that perhaps the more than 8,560 deaths that Canada lists as being caused by the respiratory virus might be an over-inflated figure. On the other hand, since 80 percent of those deaths have been attributed to Canada's failure to adequately protect the health-vulnerable aged who lived in long-term care homes, perhaps not.

A chart from the COVIDSurg Collaborative study showing the projected global impacts the pandemic will have on particular elective surgery procedures.

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Monday, June 29, 2020

Eating Out Post-COVID

"It's going to be tough to survive. Ultimately I need people to come and start dining in."
"And the more time it takes, the worse it gets for me."
"Masks are expensive."
Manish Mallick, owner ROOH Chicago

"Based on our estimates, we believe up to ten percent of all restaurants globally will disappear, with 20 percent or more also going through a restructuring process."
"This is a conservative case, in our view."
"Another wave of the pandemic will take the numbers higher without further bailouts."
Aaron Allen, Aaron Allen & Associates, consulting firm

"Weaker businesses are searching for pre-Chapter 11 solutions."
"There will be many closings, particularly independents."
"On the whole, most quick-serving restaurant brands are in fair shape, while some fast casual and casual dining brands are still struggling."
"Fine dining brands need business travel to resume before they see traffic recovery."
John Gordon, principal, Pacific Management Consulting Group
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Chicago is currently in phase 3 of a five-step reopening process; outdoor dining for cafes and restaurants included. Since mid-May, North Carolina has permitted 50 percent of seating capacity in restaurants until a June spike forced establishments to reconsider plans for re-opening. "We would sell lobsters for $50 to $100; now I'm offering them for 30 percent less", said chef Keith Rhodes of his James Beard-nominated seafood restaurant Catch in Wilmington, referring to curbside pickup.

Many states in the U.S. saw the reopening of their economies offering some relief to the struggling restaurant industry, but new rules mandating seating capacity reductions serve to limit the potential for recovery. A second surge in COVID-19 cases in Texas, Florida, Arizona and California has raised alarms, threatening to reverse small gains seen in recent weeks for the beleaguered industry.

Inventive minds of restaurant owners struggling to find new methods of survival has seen discounting and curbside pickup, as well as a new tack; selling groceries. Staff have been cut and menu items trimmed in an effort to reduce costs, even while costs are rising related to new deep-cleaning rules, less seating, costs associated with disinfectants and masks and separation installations.

Data continues to emerge week by week detailing the depth of changes reshaping the restaurant industry, thanks to the global COVID pandemic where the world is on track for a radical overhaul of food service. There have been hundreds of bankruptcy filings over the last three months. Aaron Allen of his namesake consulting firm estimates 22 million restaurants worldwide will see a ten percent reduction while another 20 percent or greater will restructure.

His projection is that 2.2 million restaurants will close, including a significant number in the United States, where the industry employs 15.6 million workers. According to Open Table, which tracks restaurant activity through reservations, the failure rate may be higher yet, in an industry where even pre-pandemic a dramatic shift was seen in consumer behaviour leading to the industry suffering rising debt in the face of too much competition.

Large chains and independents including local businesses have seen their business models upended, leading some to offer meat by the pound, as well as other groceries including milk, vegetables and even toilet paper, for the foreseeable future. 

A woman walks past a restaurant closed due to COVID-19 in Vancouver. 'I don't see a future for my business or for my family,' says one restaurant owner in Toronto. (Darryl Dyck/Canadian Press)

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China's Universal Game of Territorial Gain

"There's no trust right now."
"Nobody is going to buy this idea anymore that greater economic engagement is going to alleviate political strains [between India and China]."
Tanvi Madan, director, India Project, Brookings Institution, Washington

"If you consider the division of labour, then China is certainly on the winning side [of the two countries' trade imbalance]."
"[Particularly in two key areas -- telecoms and pharmaceuticals -- the government] must put in place a medium-term strategy to get out of this kind of dependence [on China. It is] absolutely imperative."
Biswajit Dhar, former Indian trade negotiator

"[China is] trying to change the status quo unilaterally in the Est China Sea, the South China Sea, at the Indian border and in Hong Kong."
"Our fighter jets scramble against Chinese airplanes almost every day.  ...Their armed ships are trying to violate our territorial waters."
Taro Kono, Japanese Minister of Defence
A Japanese military plane flies over the Senakuku/Diaoyu islands in this file photo.
A Japanese military plane flies over the Senakuku/Diaoyu islands

China has named 50 underwater geographic features located in close proximity to islands whose sovereignty has long been disputed between Japan and China in the East China Sea. China obviously is in the mood to prove the old adage that 'possession is nine-tenths of the law'. Tokyo has interpreted Beijing's move as an "alarming" leap in advancing Chinese territorial claims; recognized as but one of a number of provocative events in flashpoints in the Asia-Pacific region based on fears of military escalation.

Events between China and India have become even more obviously fraught where disputed territory between the two giant nuclear nations in the Himalaya has seen Beijing's departure from the cold diplomacy its neighbours rely upon to blatant military violence in claiming geographical points within India's boundaries. In a May 15 physical altercation between unarmed Indian and Chinese troops, over 20 Indian soldiers were beaten to death in a violent melee. China has not divulged the numbers of its own losses.

Beijing has given orders for its military to move forward beyond China's territorial borders and into India's. It has surreptitiously erected army posts where no Chinese should venture, within the borders of India's sovereign territory high in the Himalaya. There has been a troop buildup on both sides; China belligerently prepared to advance its interests, and India just as prepared to protect its own from a predatory neighbour. And though both sides had long ago agreed that their military would not carry arms to prevent bloodshed in case of a skirmish, both resorted to improvised weaponry.
https://s2.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20200623&t=2&i=1523169294&r=LYNXMPEG5M0LI&w=1600
An Indian Army convoy moves along a highway leading to Ladakh, at Gagangeer in Kashmir's Ganderbal district June 18, 2020. REUTERS/Danish Ismail

China's latest move is to send martial art trainers to their outposts on the Tibetan Plateau -- itself representing a geographical territory torn from Tibetan sovereignty over Chinese claims that Tibet is part of China which it appropriated a century ago, formally annexing it in 1951 with the claim that Tibet formed part of China 800 years ago. Chinese soldiers stationed in their mountain redoubts will now become proficient in the martial arts, though even without them they had hurled an Indian commander to his death off the side of the mountain.

Analysts of satellite imagery confirmed that despite its diplomatic "mutual consensus to disengage" with India over the disputed territory, it had taken no action to remove the posts it had constructed inside Indian territory, nor had it withdrawn its troops stationed there in the Galwan valley. Indeed it has fortified the area in dispute. "India will reduce its dependence on imports", stated Prime Minister Modi. "We [will] become [the] biggest exporters of the commodities that we now import", he declared.

The treacherous terrain of the Ladakh region.
The treacherous terrain of the Ladakh region.Credit:AP

Unfortunately, just like all other nations within the international community, India too has over the years become a nation dependent on Chinese trade, intertwined with its own, a huge trade imbalance in China's favour the result of acquiring cheaper goods, ranging from household items to high-tech communications and personal protection equipment during a time of global economic breakdown caused by a ferociously infectious virus out of China.

Most nations including those whose natural resources China is steadily depleting, and who will never be able to repay the immense infrastructure loans made by Beijing to emerging economies, to bring them into China's "one road, one belt" orbit to capture an even greater share of the world market already mortgaged to China, seek to ingratiate themselves with the power that is behind Beijing, fearful of enduring its wrath should they be seen to defy Chinese directives.

The irony is that the country that gifted the global community with an economy-wrecking, social disaster-wreacking, death-delivering zoonotic, is the very same country that produces a huge proportion of the world's disinfectant chemicals, respirators, medical masks and gowns, ensuring that the stricken world remains dependent on China and in the process, semi-vassals of Beijing. India, with its uneasy political and trade relations with China, finds itself in a bind.

India exports raw materials and imports intermediate and final products of higher economic value; the traditional short-end-of-the-stick in trade. It accesses raw material that China produces; high performance polyethylene, to produce its bulletproof vests for Indian paramilitary and police forces.  Bulletproof jackets for the Indian army relies on materials imported from China. India will henceforth make a strenuous effort to wean itself away from Chinese products.

As a worldwide pharmaceutical producer in the global generic drug industry, India is deeply dependent on China, since around 70 percent of the active ingredients required by drugmakers emanate from china, according to Ashok Kumar Madan, executive director of the Indian Drug Manufacturers' Association. Decreasing that reliance on China is a goal that India has long eyed and found frustratingly difficult to attain.

Taking a leaf, as it were, over China's preferred method of punishing nations that dare to defy the advances of the Chinese Communist Party in Beijing India will nonetheless begin the process of withdrawal. Where China bullies other nations when they run afoul of Beijing's wishes, by punishing them through imposing high tariffs on their products or finding reason to discontinue accessing their products for Chinese consumption, as it has done with Canada and Australia. A trade war is less destructive than a military war.

https://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/.e/interactive/html5-video-media/2020/06/16/Kashmir_Map_WIDE_June15_Galwan_Valley_Ladakh_mediumx2.png

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Sunday, June 28, 2020

In View of the Times -- Pregnancy Cancellation

"[The pandemic is presenting] serious psychological challenges [that could have consequences for both mothers and babies]."
"We do see changes in brain structure and brain function in kids whose mothers were more depressed or more anxious during pregnancy."
Catherine Lebel, Canada Research Chair, pediatric neuroimaging, University of Calgary

"Many of the conversations we've had in gynecology clinics in patients feeling that, now is not a good time [to plan for a pregnancy]."
"But it remains to be seen how long [a] period [women] are willing to wait."
"[With no national statutory paid maternity leave, a lack of access to prescription drugs for children] there are different cost pressures on American families [as compared to advantaged Canadian families with all these issues in place]."
"We don't think this will change the total number of children, or the decision to have children in the long run."
"I think more people are thinking now, 'there's never going to be a good time'. And for that reason they're reverting back to their original plans."
"The truth is to be seen. But economics is never part of the conversation when I talk with patients. [Their focus is on more existential issues], like raising their child to be a good person, raising a child that may have a lower quality of life than what we're used to."
Dr.Dustin Costescu, family planning specialist, McMaster University, Hamilton

"Purposefully reduced volumes aside, from what I understand, we are all very busy and in fact have patients on waiting lists wanting to start their cycles."
Eileen Mahon, president, Canadian Fertility and Andrology Society

"We are seeing a slight reduction in accessing abortion."
"We actually think it's a bit more reflective of people making different choices with regard to their sexual behaviour -- potentially having less sex, basically, because of the pandemic." 
Laura Neidhart, Action Canada for Sexual Health & Rights
Far from an anticipated post-COVID-19 baby boom, European fertility plans could actually be on the slide. /Seth Wenig/AP

Living in suddenly uncertain and most certainly 'exceptional' times, it seemed a timely idea to question people whether the current situation is impacting on child-bearing expectations. Which led Catherine Lebel with her investigative team to launch an online survey of pregnant women to question them about their emotions and concerns; how were they managing under these conditions while pregnant? Did they fear for their lives, feel in danger given the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus? Feel concern over their baby's future?

Originally the target was to recruit 1,200 women and ask for their opinion, but then two thousand signed on in a two-week period in April. At the present time, over 6,000 women responded, a nice large pool from which to extract the responses the researchers were looking for to be able to compile study results that would represent how the majority of pregnant women might be feeling about themselves and their unborn babies during this time of COVID-19.



What they discovered was high rates of anxiety and depression, in volumes three to four times over what might normally be seen in pregnancy. Many women responded they felt "quite a bit", or very much concerned over what the virus might produce in their fetus. Data, on the other hand, currently suggests that pregnant women are no more susceptible to serious COVID-19 infection than the average woman who is not pregnant. No evidence has arisen, much less a signal that COVID causes birth defects.

Among those in the study many worried the care they were being given prenatally was inadequate to the occasion; many others felt they were falling short of the needed sleep patterning for optimum health. The less they were given to sound sleep, the more deep the level of their anxiety and depression. The survey's intent was to reach women in pregnancy to enable understanding of what might aid in buffering anxiety and depression in the face of this unique stressor.

That answer was: receiving firm support from partners, family and friends, along with longer sleeping hours "so we're not asking any questions about decisions to conceive or have children", remarked Dr. Lebel. On the other hand, that very anxiety level and uncertainty has given many pause to wonder whether they should in fact become pregnant to begin with. American economists are forecasting a coming COVID-19 "baby bust", auguring that up to a half-million fewer children would be born in the U.S.

Although "COVID babies" have plenty of nicknames, infants born during the pandemic will be few and far in between.
Infants born during the pandemic will be few and far in between.

That belies the light-hearted initial response to the lockdowns when humour went the rounds of boredom leading to more frequent sex and nine months hence there would be a bumper crop of newborns, mentioned in a report by the Brookings Institute in Washington. No one perhaps expected the scale and depth of the disastrous pandemic and its outcome, reaching into every sphere of life.

For every one percent rise in joblessness there is an associated decrease in birthrates as revealed by an analysis of the Great Recession and the 1918 Spanish Flu, which both led to large birth declines in the United States, suggesting a drop there on the order of 300,000 to 500,000 births in the coming year. "We expect that many of these births will not just be delayed -- but will never happen. There will be a COVID-19 baby bust", the authors of the article in the Brookings report asserted.

"Home-schooling makes it difficult and stressful to take care of kids right now, and most likely stressful to contemplate expanding a family", observed Roberta Begignski, a post-doctoral fellow at Western University's Exercise and Pregnancy Lab. in Canada. At the same time, for many women the reproduction window is steadily closing, and women tend to think "life is short and we're not getting any younger", she added.

Anecdotal reports from gynaecologists across Canada and the United States see reports of fewer ectopics "which would suggest there are fewer people having pregnancies", added Dr.Costesco where one of the first signals in an effort to estimate future birthing trends relates to early pregnancy such as ectopic pregnancies where a fertilized egg implants and grows outside the uterus. Abortion volume represents yet another signal.

It was initially felt there might erupt an uptick in abortion demand, but demand has dropped somewhat. Teens and university students, isolated at home with parents have had little opportunity to gather in their usual co-ed numbers at social events. That is set to change with the reduced lockdowns and resulting openings. And while obstetric clinics are receiving referrals for women due in December and January, a reduction in normal volumes hasn't been noticed.

Baby being held by mama
(Kristina Paukshtite / pexels.com)


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Saturday, June 27, 2020

China's Exploitative Agenda : Canada a Willing Foil

"Why would we not choose to be affiliated with those efforts [other promising COVID vaccines backed by major Western universities and companies], and instead pick as our preferred partner the Chinese military and a Chinese company?"
"This vaccine candidate is nothing but a dead man walking now."
Dr.Amir Attaran, health policy professor, University of Ottawa

"There are a lot of challenges this vaccine platform will face ... This will be a little bit like winning the lottery to get this to the end."
"That's why I'm at a bit of a loss about this. I still don't understand how did that work? What was the decision mechanism to invest in this?"
"A vaccine that gives you grade-3 side effects in phase 1 is not a prime candidate."
Dr.Gary Kobinger, professor, Department of Microbiology and Infectious Diseases, Laval University
CanSino Biologics, a Chinese company developing a COVID-19 vaccine with the help of some Canadian scientists, saw some early success in the first phase of clinical trials

Scientists across the globe are working tirelessly and anxiously, hoping to find a solution to the SARS-CoV-2 virus that causes COVID-19, in a vaccine to prevent the global ravages of the dangerous disease. Dangerous enough that it has infected eight million people worldwide and strained international medical resources beyond their limits, lethal enough that close to a half-million  people have lost their lives to its dread effects.

A Chinese company called CanSino Biologics has a vaccine in the final stages of development and Canada's prime minister announced in May that Canada would be holding human trials of that vaccine in a partnership between Canada and China. At a time of critically strained relations with a belligerent Beijing which has been bullying its way across the world in every sphere of human endeavour, technological advance and geographical sovereignty.

The Chinese vaccine in fact, is one based on a cell line that was developed by Canada's National Research Council. The NRC has long worked with Chinese scientists in partnership advances in the past. Ties between the NRC and a Vancouver-based biotechnology company with its own COVID-19 vaccine candidate also enter the picture, as yet another COVID-centric vaccine research effort.

Last month, CanSino was the first biotech company globally to publish a peer-reviewed outcome of a vaccine trial for COVID-19; early trial results that produced iffy results. Other COVID vaccines appear more promising, and backed by major Western universities and companies, so it seems passing strange that the government of Canada would support a partnership between its own and Chinese researchers,

All the more so given China's propensity to take full credit and to appropriate joint efforts; given badly strained political-diplomatic relations between Canada and China, where Beijing is holding two Canadians ransom in a tit-for-tat standoff related to the lawful detention of an elite Chinese tech executive on an extradition warrant called by the U.S., leading China to accuse the Canadians of espionage. Exacting, in addition, trade punishments on Canada, exerting pressure for her release.

Laval University professor, Gary Kobinger who previously worked at Canada's National Microbiology Lab where he helped to develop an Ebola vaccine and treatment, declared his opinion that the CanSino vaccine looks dubious, expressing his professional puzzlement at the Canada/China partnership in its development. This is the same laboratory where a Chinese researcher, her husband and Chinese research students were escorted off campus declared persona non grata a year earlier.

The CanSino Ad5-nCoV vaccine appears to have failed the most basic of tests for patient safety. Its phase 1 results, published in The Lancet, reflected a study whose immune response to SARS-CoV-2 was effective for half the subjects, but also resulted in a 'damping' effect on close to half the 108 subjects exposed to Ad-5. The elevated fever that half of the participants suffered represents a side effect seen as very negative.

CanSino Biologics’ sign on building in Tianjin, China  REUTERS/Stringer

In total, the government of Canada has committed $1 billion in funding to COVID-19 research, but refuses to divulge how much of that total funding is being spent on the CanSino studies overseen by Dalhousie University's Canadian Centre for Vaccinology. "Commercial confidentiality" shelters the details from public view, according to Hans Parar, an Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada spokesman.

The arrangement is for the National Research Council to produce the vaccine for the Canadian market at a manufacturing facility in Montreal should the trials prove a success, where the NRC should be capable of producing 70,000 to 100,000 does monthly by year's end. A role that would place Canadians "among the first in the world to have access to a safe and effective vaccine against COVID-19". A peculiar statement, given that Canada signed on to a global agreement that no one country should monopolize the vaccine, but see that it would be simultaneously available globally.


Even while the government of Canada is funding a number of other vaccine projects, many within Canada, including one at the University of Saskatchewan, moving steadily toward human trials, the partnership with Canada and China has its worrying roots. CanSino worked with the Chinese Academy of Military Medical Sciences' bioengineering institute on the Ebola product.

And while evidence does not exist that the academy has any inappropriate role in the coronavirus project, it is well to remember that the Communist Party of China has issued a broad reminder to all Chinese citizens and corporate interests of their obligated responsibility to place the interests of China first and foremost in all their dealings. U.S. researchers last yer produced an article stating that China's defence planners are interested in "biology as an emerging domain of warfare".

The article had as a co-author Elsa Kania, a research fellow at Georgetown University Centre for Security and Emerging Technology. It all makes eminently good sense from China's perspective. The point of advantage from the Canadian perspective is somehow missing.

Lab vaccine

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Friday, June 26, 2020

Crowded Long-Term Care Homes : Patients at High Risk for COVID 

"Too often, the building and the physical infrastructure gets forgotten in this conversation."
"[But] public health experts ... would know on face value that that's sort of infection-prevention 101: crowded rooms are bad."
Dr.Nathan Stall, geriatrician, Mt.Sinai Hospital, Toronto

"We saw the numbers -- then shared that information with government and said, 'We have a very large problem here'."
"We need to prepare today to look at alternate accommodations and solutions ... We have to move very quickly."
Donna Duncan, CEO, Ontario Long Term Care Association
Verla Pacey, 102, waves through a window at Stoneridge Manor Long Term Care Home in Carleton Place, Ont., where six residents died of COVID-19. Pacey survived the virus. (Supplied)
Some of the havoc caused by COVID-19 in nursing homes where the highest mortality rates in Canada were seen among the elderly, boosting Canada's death rate attributable to the effects of the novel coronavirus, had a quite simple explanation, according to a new study. Elderly and health-impaired residents kept in shared accommodation turned out to be a particularly lethal arrangement.

Close to 300 long-term care resident deaths in one province alone could have been prevented, had the residents been housed in two-bed, rather than the ward-like four-bed rooms, according to the research results. Ontario scientists from University of Toronto, McMaster University and Public Health Ontario highlighted a clear association in the degree of crowding in the homes -- the number of people sharing a room and lavatory -- and the spread of the hugely contagious COVID virus.

The elderly living in the most tightly packed of the facilities turned out to be twice as susceptible to being infected and to perish, in comparison to those living in the least-crowded homes, according to the paper. When the pandemic struck, one in every four long-term care residents was housed in four-bed rooms.

Ontario standards introduced in 1999 held that new facilities would plan for no more than two people for each room, while older homes, mostly for-profit enterprises, were encouraged to retrofit to the same standards. According to Dr.Stall however, few have committed to making those changes to meet the new standards of two people per room.

A new report by the Canadian Institute for Health Information underscores that nursing homes have seen about 80 percent of Canda's 8,500 deaths. The per-capita number of long-term-care deaths averages among like industrialized countries, according to the Institute report. Yet Canada's deaths exceed those of other Organization of Economic Co-opration and Development members.

OECD countries saw deaths in their long-term care homes averaging 42 percent, ranging from under ten percent in Slovenia and Hungary up to 55 percent in Spain. As a percentage of the nation's total COVID-19 death rate, deaths in Canada attributable to COVID, exceed the record of other OECD members.

The Ontario Long Term Care Association says that about ten percent of residents live in four-bed rooms and that converting them to two-bed accommodation at the present time would effectively remove 4,300 places from the system, at a time when waiting lists for nursing home places currently stands at 36,000.

In anticipating the arrival of a second pandmic, Ms.Duncan feels the province should consider the conversion of existing unused building space such as vacant hospitals, hotels or arenas, into long-term care housing. Facilities were ranked in the study on the density of housing ranging  from those with mostly single rooms to homes with only four-person rooms.

The infection spread was seen to be higher in crowded houses with 9.7 percent infected as opposed to 4.5 percent in the least crowded of the homes; deaths 2.7 percent and 1.3 percent respectively. Placing all residents who were in four-bed rooms into two-bed accommodations would have prevented 988 COVID-19 cases and 271 deaths.

Past surveys reveal that 80 percent of residents would select a private room over a shared one, according to the paper. Most four-bed rooms are located in older facilities, with high occupancy rooms having curtains to separate residents, but "curtains are no match for this" virus pointed out Ms.Duncan. Unsurprisingly, an earlier study found that outbreaks were significantly higher in for-profit homes.
People show support for staff and residents at Ottawa's Carlingview Manor long-term care home, a for-profit facility owned by Revera that has experienced 61 deaths due to COVID-19. (Francis Ferland/CBC)


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Milking the Racial Cow

Bubba Wallace responds after FBI hate crime investigation

'Whether tied in 2019, or whatever, it was a noose'

"[This was a] despicable act of racism and hatred [that] leaves me incredibly saddened and serves as a painful reminder of how much further we have to go as a society."
"[The act shows] how persistent we must be in the fight against racism. Over the last several weeks, I have been overwhelmed by the support from people across the NASCAR industry including other drivers and team members in the garage."
"Together, our sport has made a commitment to driving real change and championing a community that is accepting and welcoming of everyone."
"Nothing is more important and we will not be deterred by the reprehensible actions of those who seek to spread hate. As my mother told me today, 'They are just trying to scare you'."
"This will not break me, I will not give in nor will I back down. I will continue to stand proudly for what I believe in."
"There should be no individual that is uncomfortable showing up to our events to have a good time with their family that feels some type of way about something they have seen, an object they have seen flying [Confederate flag]. No one should feel uncomfortable when they come to a NASCAR race." 
"So it starts with Confederate flags. Get them out of here. They have no place for them."
Bubba Wallace, NASCAR driver
View image on Twitter

"We are angry and outraged and cannot state strongly enough how seriously we take this heinous act."
"We have launched an immediate investigation and will do everything we can to identify the person[s] responsible and eliminate them from the sport."
"As we have stated unequivocally, there is no place for racism in NASCAR and this act only strengthens our resolve to make the sport open and welcoming to all."
NASCAR Statement
The FBI said it "learned that garage number 4, where the noose was found, was assigned to Bubba Wallace last week."
"The investigation also revealed evidence, including authentic video confirmed by NASCAR, that the noose found in garage number 4 was in that garage as early as October 2019. Although the noose is now known to have been in garage number 4 in 2019, nobody could have known Mr. Wallace would be assigned to garage number 4 last week."
Federal Bureau of Investigation Report
An image taken from a 2019  YouTube video shows a garage door rope fashioned into a noose in the stall used by Bubba Wallace's race team earlier this week at the Talladega Superspeedway in Alabama. A source with firsthand knowledge of the on-going NASCAR investigation told CNN that the noose in the 2019 video is the same noose Wallace's race team alerted NASCAR officials to. CNN circled the end of the rope to make it more visible.
An image taken from a 2019 YouTube video shows a garage door rope fashioned into a noose in the stall used by Bubba Wallace's race team earlier this week at the Talladega Superspeedway in Alabama.
Before the start of the GEICO 500 at Talladega superspeedway in Alabama drivers approached BubbaWallace to express their undying support for him at this difficult time in his life, devastated that some dastardly racist had somehow managed to penetrate the armour of protection that NASCAR erects around its vehicles, its drivers, its garages, denying entry to any but those entitled to enter the premises. That being so, a shudder of horror must have gone through the minds of all concerned, that somehow someone trusted with access to the area, had installed a noose to deliver a hateful racist message to the only Black driver in the NASCAR stable.

Not to worry, everyone, from the executives of the enterprise, to the lowliest of the workers, and certainly all the drivers, and be assured those from other groups as well, were solidly in support of Bubba at this, his time of discomfiting personal threat. Selfies, yes, plenty taken, proof-positive that there was no end of empathy and love to go around any number of times without end. Loyalty and brotherhood in the profession and beyond, bro....

Late Sunday afternoon all displays of the Confederate flag were removed from view. Bubba Wallace declared them for what they were; a symbol of Black slavery and contempt and hatred for African-Americans, an insult to America just as they were an assault on Black America. The U.S. attorney for the northern District of Alabama had assured all concerned that his office, the FBI and the Department of Justice Civil Rights division "are reviewing the situation surrounding the noose that was found in Bubba Wallace's garage to determine whether there are violations of federal law."

"Regardless of whether federal charges can be brought, this type of action has no place in our society." And so there, all aboard. It's just as well, that Bubba Wallace did not himself see the noose, a heart-stopping experience, he was at least spared that. When noticed by a worker it was immediately reported to officials of NASCAR, who can credit a member of Bubba's team for discovering the offensive, threatening symbol of anti-Black hatred. Think, for example of what a Swastika signifies to a Jew.

One wonders, as an aside, has anyone ever asked Bubba Wallace why he would appropriate for himself a name that traditionally designated the presence of a 'good old boy' someone of limited intelligence, low education, a redneck, certain to be racially bigoted? That name is as much an offence to any self-respecting Black as the Confederate flag might be. So what is this, a kind of double standard, that some offensive symbols are game, others are not? And does that qualify as 'cultural appropriation'?

"They see me as somebody who's tearing down their heritage. But we're not trying to close the door on  you, we're opening the door to many others that want to be a part of this sport", Bubba declared as he explained that the presence of the Confederate flag in an Alabama sport arena is prohibitively offensive and should never be on public display. Wallace is "my brother and always will be. Don't let the people who are lower than life to try to bring you down. They won't scare you because  you're strong. I stand with you pal. Forever", tweeted driver Ryan Blaney, good soul that he obviously is.

FBI says Bubba Wallace not a target of a hate crime


"God created us equal. I will never understand how some people don't believe that. The stupid hatefulness that happened yesterday is disgusting. I know @NASCAR will oust this idiot. Go win today @BubbaWallace. I'll be cheering you on. #IStandWith Bubba", wrote former drive Michael Waltrip. Everyone, actually, tripping all over themselves to declare their undying devotion to the much-put-upon Bubba.

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Thursday, June 25, 2020

China's Global Power Journey

"The Chinese Communist Party's political persecution and arbitrary detainment of these two Canadian citizens [Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor], while Canada continues to uphold the rule of law in the case of Meng Wanzhou, only reinforces the international community's concerns about the CCP's complete disregard for individual rights and the fair and just application of the law."
"[China must] immediately release and drop all charges] against the two, arbitrarily detained for over 550 days on spurious charges of espionage]. [Their] arbitrary detention and confinement in inhumane conditions is deeply troubling."
U.S. Senators from Idaho, New Jersey, Colorado, Delaware

"What I learned also is that China doesn't adhere to the Geneva Convention on the treatment of prisoners. And so I'm not surprised to hear also that just from watching the news that maybe the two Michaels are not getting that sort of attention as well."
"My husband wouldn't have had consular assistance because he was a Chinese citizen. However, the Stephen Harper government was very good. They received the campaign letters that were being sent to them and then his office would forward them to the office of the ambassador to China from Canada at the time, which [sic] was David Mulroney. And he was amazing."
Karen Patterson, ex-wife of previous Chinese detainee
People hold signs calling for China to release Canadian detainees Michael Spavor and Michael Kovrig during an extradition hearing for Huawei Technologies Chief Financial Officer Meng Wanzhou at the B.C. Supreme Court in Vancouver March 6, 2019. (Lindsey Wasson/Reuters)
Seized by Chinese authorities in December 2018, in response to the arrest of Huawei chief financial officer and daughter of the technology giant's founder on a U.S. extradition warrant in a clear act of political retaliation in a matter of law and justice, the two Canadian men are being kept incommunicado, unable to contact their families, denied access to lawyers and consular services as well, while being subjected to psychological torture. While Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou, on bail, lives in either of her two Vancouver mansions, awaiting eventual extradition.

The Liberal government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has been tripping over eggshells ever since the two men's arrest and the death sentences meted out to two other Canadians accused of drug smuggling, Beijing's pressure tactics, along with the halting of imports of Canadian Canola products into China, and the imposition of onerous duties on other agricultural products, punishment for Canada's insubordination to China's entitlements. Canada's Prime Minister expressed his "disappointment" last Friday in the wake of official espionage charges laid by Beijing.

Rather than imposing counter-measures to counteract China's bullying, the Trudeau government has trod lightly, fearful of provoking Beijing into ever more egregious offensives. "It has been obvious from the beginning that this was a political decision made by the Chinese government, and we deplore it and have from the very beginning", Trudeau finally stated. Yet no measures were even taken to match those of Beijing in punishing Canada for honouring its extradition agreement with the United States.

A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson in Beijing, Zhao Lijian, responded to Justin Trudeau's milquetoast demeanor: "China urges the relevant Canadian leader to earnestly respect the spirit of the rule of law, respect China's judicial sovereignty and stop making irresponsible remarks"; righteously insulting scolds that Beijing is so clumsily addicted to, in its sanctimonious belief that the entire world owes it obeisance, and should apologize for all the underhanded mischief that Beijing imposes on the world order.

Calling for Canada's justice minister to intervene in the case, saying that "discretion" is "expressly codified" in the Extradition Act, a Toronto lawyer retained by Michael Kovrig's wife urges Ottawa to release Meng Wanzhou to have the two Michaels freed thus acceding to Beijing's demands: "This shows that the Canadian government can actually handle this incident in a just manner according to Canadian law. Once again we urge the Canadian side to earnestly respect the spirit of rule of law, treat China’s solemn position and concerns seriously, stop political manipulation, immediately release Ms. Meng and ensure her safe return to China", Zhao iterated.


India is currently facing another kind of challenge that China regularly imposes on its neighbours in its never-ending focus on expanding its territorial imperatives to seize land, water and airspace that is shared by neighbouring countries or actually within the sovereign territory of other nations. From the South China Sea to the Himalaya, Beijing extends its malevolent reach, threatening, and bullying while making unsubstantiated claims to ownership of areas not their own. Indian border guards came under attack by their Chinese counterparts last week in the disputed Galwan Valley.
The video, published first by ThePrint, shows troops first engaging in a close quarter fist-fight and then hurling stones at each other.

Twenty-three Indian soldiers were killed, and one captain was hurled to his death down the mountainside in a deadly skirmish when the Indian military made an effort to protect its territory from the encroachment of China. Chinese troops annexed 60 square kilometres of land in early May in Ladakh, the cause of the hand-to-hand combat by troops using improvised weaponry, having been disarmed to prevent just such a violent event, through mutual agreement by both nations.

"There is a lot of land which has been annexed by China, not only this time in the Galwan Valley but all along the LAC [Line of Actual Control]. I have been raising my voice, and even meeting with the local administration. They know about it, but neither the government nor the media have raised their voices about it", maintained Urgain Chodon, a councillor for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party in Ladakh. India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi is left little leeway for action; a military response being interpreted as a battle cry, with the prospect of the two most populous nuclear-armed nations on earth at war.

China prepares itself for all such scenarios. In its bid to match the Global Positioning System of the United States, it has now completed its BeiDou satellite navigation system. Should the U.S. and China ever enter a conflict, the U.S. would now not be able to disable Chinese military systems by blocking access to GPS, since it now has its own. "We are moving from being a major nation in the field of space to becoming a true space power", boasted Yang Changfeng, chief designer of China's $10 billion 3D satellite network.

China launching the final satellite in its homegrown geolocation system designed to rival the US GPS network.
China has successfully put into orbit the final satellite in its BeiDou-3 navigation system, further advancing the country as a major power in space    Getty Images

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Neurological-Degeneratve Brain Effects of COVID

"...If we're ever going to understand this, this is something we need to do, now."
"We can't wait a year from now when potentially we'll have eight million or more people who have survived COVID-19."
"We're going to see many, many people with profound cognitive impairment a year from now. We have enough experience that we know that this is going to produce cognitive deficits. Many different things are likely to contribute to the cognitive profile of people coming out of this."

"...There are plenty of reports of people reporting what in a clinical context we refer to as delirium.There are people coming out of the ICU recovering from COVID and saying they don't feel themselves. They've got fuzzy thinking. They can't really concentrate. And this is sort of the typical profile that we know goes on to produce long-term consequences."
"I do most of my work with ICU clinicians, and they'll often tell you, no one leaves the ICU in good shape, cognitively."
"The priority, and this is not specific to COVID, the priority in most ICUs around the world is to get the patient out the door alive. They're not trying to get them out making sure they're cognitively intact and they have no memory impairments. People are typically fighting a battle between life and death. Cognitive deficits might not be a high priority at that point."
"You don't want to put all your eggs into giving people memory training if it's not fundamentally a memory problem that people have."
"It's important we understand exactly what the problems are: Is this something that affects people's memory? Their concentration? Their ability to make high-level decisions?"
Dr.Adrian Owen, neuroscientist, Western University

Under normal circumstances, Dr.Owen focuses on studying the minds of people who have suffered severe physical trauma that has resulted in severe brain trauma; his specialty is 'understanding' severely injured brains, analyzing and interpreting what has occurred and whether -- although it appears that the individual with the brain trauma is no longer in possession of a functioning brain, by carefully studying the brain's neural responses -- he can detect brain activity however suppressed it is.

His studies and experiments came to a screeching halt, however, with the presence of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that results in COVID-19 contagion. "I have a whole team of people sitting in my lab, unable to directly assess patients", he said. With the escalation of the crisis and heroic protocols undertaken to save peoples' lives in hospital ICUs with the use of respirators, the invasive methods have produced a situation made to measure for investigation by one of the world's top neuroscientists.

What the medical community began to realize was that some patients stricken with COVID-19, receiving life-saving treatment, emerge from that treatment with neurological consequences not quite foreseen when those protocols were embarked upon. He has launched a huge study for the purpose of investigating the impacts COVID-19 infections have on the brain, called COVID-19 Brain Study, an online study hoping to recruit 50,000 participants.

Ideally, people who were given a confirmed, positive diagnosis of the novel coronavirus. With the use of questionnaires and pop-down menus, Dr.Owen and his colleagues plan to collect information "completely anonymized and secure" while enquiring about medical history of participants, of any underlying heart, lung or other health issues, and what happened to them following their COVID-19 diagnosis.''

Participants will be asked to perform cognitive games to assess memory, decision-making, planning the problem-solving, with results to be compared against an immense database of millions of tests that had been completed by a healthy, normal population. Stroke neurologist Dr.Rick Swartz of Sunnybrook Hospital in Toronto has partnered with Dr.Owen both anticipating a large and diverse group involvement of a study available in English, French and Spanish.

With an anticipated 50,000 participants, the hope is that sufficient statistical power will emerge to enable them to identify "all of these little nuances", giving answer to questions such as are there certain proportions of the population more vulnerable to developing cognitive deficits such as fuzzy thinking, brain fog, problems concentrating, and are there differences identifying with men and women? The elderly and the young? Does cognitive impairment only strike those who were placed on ventilators, is this an issue that everyone emerges with?

A recent article appears to have raised the question of whether SARS-CoV-2 is neurotropic -- toxic to brain tissues -- and to what extent the virus may impact on the central nervous system. In an earlier coronavirus invasion with SARS in early 2002-03, survivors commonly saw long-term neurological complications and since the novel coronavirus shares some of the same features of its predecessor, both using spike proteins to bind to a protein called ACE2 on the host, the fact that some scientists have discovered ACE2 receptors scattered through the brain offers a clue.

It is known that delirium, a type of brain dysfunction capable of leading to a serious state of confusion and paranoid delusions, can result with the use of high doses of some sedatives in the ICU. One-third of COVID-19 patients of all ages and two thirds of those with severe disease show signs of delirium, according to Harvard Medical School researchers; recognized as early evidence of a correlation.

 Spending time on ventilators leads patients to experience cognitive deficits which result from uneven delivery of oxygen to the brain, explains Dr.Owen. Use of the study's data to design therapeutic strategies "to work out what we need to do to deal with this", represents the hope that spurs this research.
The COVID-19 Brain Study looks to recruit 50,000 individuals who received a confirmed positive diagnosis of the virus in order to answer pressing questions about the disease’s direct and indirect effects on the brain.

"Is this something that's going to affect ten million in a year's time, in which case that is a massive social and economic problem."
"Or is this something that's going to affect 20,000 people a year from now, in which case it's something much more manageable."
Dr.Adrian Owen

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Wednesday, June 24, 2020

Vengeace for the Not-so-Hidden Past

"Everyone around here used to go to the big palm nut farm to cut palm and make oil to eat and sell."
"General Bill Horace and his men were passing. They entered the plantation and accused us of looting the place. He then ordered his men to arrest people."
"They started chasing us, and everybody was running all over the place. They then started firing at us. I first saw one woman fall. The bullet hit her on the head. Her husband was crying. Then one of the other fighters shot him also.Both of them died instantly."
Eyewitness report, Liberia's Truth and Reconciliation

"Many of us [Liberians] are here in Canada as a result of that war."
"We became refugees directly as a result of that war ... It has become a reality in the Liberian community that our community is a mix of victims of war crimes and the perpetrators at the same time."
Leo Johnson, president, Liberian Association of Canada

"The London Police Service has received several media inquiries about the identity of the deceased and possible historical association to [the] National Patriotic Front in Liberia."
"The London Police Service is aware of these inquiries, but cannot confirm this fact at this time."
London Police Service statement
The house where four masked men stormed through the door on early Sunday morning. Police said an altercation between the intruders and Bill Horrace likely spilled out of the home and onto a neighbour's yard. (Colin Butler/CBC News)

Neighbours of the occupants of a house in London, Ontario, reported seeing four men wearing face masks forcing their way into the house where 44-year-old Bill Horace lived with his family. Two of the men went to the front door and two  to the back. The neighbour heard a struggle, saw Mr. Horace dash out the front door, and there he was shot to death. His family was at home at the time. The four men were seen to leave the scene in two cars, after gunshots rang out.

The victim was taken to hospital by paramedics, and there he was pronounced dead. Initially, police stated their belief that this was no random incident, although they appeared not to know why the man had been targeted. And then the man was identified as the former leader of a rebel militia engaged in the 1990s war in Liberia and Sierra Leone in the late 1990s. And despite having been accused by former associates and witnesses of commanding "atrocities on a massive scale", the man lived quietly in Canada, a former general in the National Patriotic Front of Liberia..

Bill Horrace  (Facebook)

In 2012 Canada launched an investigation into war crimes purportedly committed by this man, the same year the former president of Liberia and leader of the NPFL, Charles Taylor, was convicted at the Special Court for Sierra Leone for planning, aiding and abetting war crimes, some of which were characterized as among the worst in recorded history. Taylor is serving a 50-year prison sentence in Britain.

Horace had sought refugee status in Canada in 2001 with false documents. He would have been declared inadmissible for entry to Canada had his true identity been known, as a rebel leader who was accused of war crimes inclusive of murder, rape and torture. He had made his way to Ghana before embarking on a journey to Canada using a false name and Dutch documents.

"It's a tragedy, because I think he evaded justice for alleged crimes. Nobody, regardless of their alleged past, deserves to die like that."
"What I've come to learn is that it's generally easier to simply deport somebody rather than convict them for war crimes."
"Because the burden of proof is so high, often it's easier to deport somebody because they lied on their refugee claim than it is to convict them of crimes against humanity."
"There are many people that would have liked to have seen him brought to justice. Getting gunned down is not justice. A legal process is justice."
"I'm confident a legal case could have been built against Bill Horace. The fact that he was still living freely, a decade after the evidence I had compiled was made publicly available, I think is troubling, and I think suggests that even if another 10 years went by, he might still be here."  
Michael Petrou, journalist, professor, Carleton University

"It's not within the Canadian Security Intelligence Service mandate. It's not terrorism, it's not espionage, it's not foreign interference and it's not subversion."
"The only people who may have been looking at him would have been the RCMP, because they would have a mandate to cooperate with the International Criminal Court at The Hague in case this guy was up on charges."
Phil Gurski, Borealis Threat and Risk Consulting
Police investigate a fatal home shooting in London, Ont., on June 22, 2020.

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