Eating Out Post-COVID

"It's going to be tough to survive. Ultimately I need people to come and start dining in."

"And the more time it takes, the worse it gets for me."

"Masks are expensive."

Manish Mallick, owner ROOH Chicago

"Based on our estimates, we believe up to ten percent of all restaurants globally will disappear, with 20 percent or more also going through a restructuring process."

"This is a conservative case, in our view."

"Another wave of the pandemic will take the numbers higher without further bailouts."

Aaron Allen, Aaron Allen & Associates, consulting firm

"Weaker businesses are searching for pre-Chapter 11 solutions."

"There will be many closings, particularly independents."

"On the whole, most quick-serving restaurant brands are in fair shape, while some fast casual and casual dining brands are still struggling."

"Fine dining brands need business travel to resume before they see traffic recovery."

John Gordon, principal, Pacific Management Consulting Group

Chicago is currently in phase 3 of a five-step reopening process; outdoor dining for cafes and restaurants included. Since mid-May, North Carolina has permitted 50 percent of seating capacity in restaurants until a June spike forced establishments to reconsider plans for re-opening. "We would sell lobsters for $50 to $100; now I'm offering them for 30 percent less", said chef Keith Rhodes of his James Beard-nominated seafood restaurant Catch in Wilmington, referring to curbside pickup.

Many states in the U.S. saw the reopening of their economies offering some relief to the struggling restaurant industry, but new rules mandating seating capacity reductions serve to limit the potential for recovery. A second surge in COVID-19 cases in Texas, Florida, Arizona and California has raised alarms, threatening to reverse small gains seen in recent weeks for the beleaguered industry.

Inventive minds of restaurant owners struggling to find new methods of survival has seen discounting and curbside pickup, as well as a new tack; selling groceries. Staff have been cut and menu items trimmed in an effort to reduce costs, even while costs are rising related to new deep-cleaning rules, less seating, costs associated with disinfectants and masks and separation installations.

Data continues to emerge week by week detailing the depth of changes reshaping the restaurant industry, thanks to the global COVID pandemic where the world is on track for a radical overhaul of food service. There have been hundreds of bankruptcy filings over the last three months. Aaron Allen of his namesake consulting firm estimates 22 million restaurants worldwide will see a ten percent reduction while another 20 percent or greater will restructure.

His projection is that 2.2 million restaurants will close, including a significant number in the United States, where the industry employs 15.6 million workers. According to Open Table, which tracks restaurant activity through reservations, the failure rate may be higher yet, in an industry where even pre-pandemic a dramatic shift was seen in consumer behaviour leading to the industry suffering rising debt in the face of too much competition.

Large chains and independents including local businesses have seen their business models upended, leading some to offer meat by the pound, as well as other groceries including milk, vegetables and even toilet paper, for the foreseeable future. 

A woman walks past a restaurant closed due to COVID-19 in Vancouver. 'I don't see a future for my business or for my family,' says one restaurant owner in Toronto. (Darryl Dyck/Canadian Press)