Illusory Victories

"We can confirm that Russian military personnel that are based in Crimea have been piloting Iranian [drones] and using them to conduct strikes across Ukraine, including strikes against Kiev in just recent days. We assess that Iranian military personnel were on the ground in Crimea and assisted Russia in these operations".

"[The Iranians] have put trainers and tech support in Crimea, but it's the Russians who are doing the piloting."

"We're going to continue to vigorously enforce all U.S. sanctions on both the Russian and Iranian arms trade. We're going to make it harder for Iran to sell these weapons to Russia. We're going to help the Ukrainians have what they need to defend themselves against these threats."

White House spokesman John Kirby

 

"We now need to legalize this state in accordance with Russian legislation." 

"Therefore, I have signed a decree introducing martial law in these four regions of Russia."

"We are working to solve very difficult large-scale tasks to ensure Russia's security and safe future."

Russian President Vladimir Putin

 

"Putin’s martial law in the annexed regions … is preparation for the mass deportation of the Ukrainian population to depressed areas of [Russia] in order to change the ethnic composition of the occupied territory," 

Oleksiy Danilov, secretary, Ukraine’s national security and defense council

 

"[I would not not rule out] difficult decisions."

"Our plans and actions regarding the city of Kherson will depend on the unfolding military-tactical situation."

"I would like to reiterate that it is quite difficult today,"

Col. Gen. Sergei Surovikin, commander, Russian assault on Ukraine

People gather in Kherson for evacuation. Dmitry Marmyshev / TASS

 Vladimir Putin is inhabiting a world all his own. Where his edicts and aspirations must never be questioned and the means to attain them may surpass all other nations' excesses in human depravity, through wilful destruction of civilian life, civil infrastructure, threatening nuclear conflict, forcing civilians to abandon their homes and self-exile to Russia from territory -- ironically enough that he has himself declared annexed -- into the Russian Federation. 

 

The four Ukrainian provinces were never fully occupied by the Russian military, and the Ukrainian counteroffensive is systematically and determinedly reclaiming hundreds of towns and villages, forcing the Russian military to pull back from its front lines, but Putin identifies those same areas where his troops are fast losing ground as 'Russian', not Ukrainian geography.

Because he has declared them part of greater Russia, Mr. Putin threatens he may yet be obliged by Ukrainian intransigence in continuing to pursue Russian troops, to cut off supply and escape routes, to shove them back over the border, a declaration of war by Ukraine on Russia. Whereas Russia's modest 'military special operation' is merely a mild gesture of neighbourly misunderstanding.

 

A view shows the city administration building hit by recent shelling in the course of Ukraine-Russia conflict, in Donetsk, Russian-controlled Ukraine, October 16, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko

 

 

 

 

 A misunderstanding that has led Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy who once argued he was fully prepared to meet with Putin face-to-face to discuss their differences, now adamant that he will not under current circumstances agree to 'peace' talks. Moscow thinks it is perfectly reasonable for peace talks to proceed as long as Ukraine agrees to the permanent loss of 18 percent of its territory, then an agreeable peace can be installed. Until such time as the Kremlin decides that not enough territory has been achieved and launches another 'special military operation'.

President Zelenskyy feels there is little point meeting with Russian negotiators to bargain for peace with four of Ukraine's provinces not merely held to ransom, but remaining in the hands of its Russian persecutors. He did reasonably say that with a change of administration in Moscow, with Putin gone from governance, he may be willing to discuss peace and the handover back of any still-occupied Ukrainian territory that his own military has not yet restored in de-occupation.

Martial law now applies on the four illegally annexed regions of Ukraine. A strange and delusional response to the Ukrainian military gaining the upper hand over the occupying Russian military now in quick retreat. Aerial bombardment of civilian areas all over Ukraine, its towns and cities, with a special mission to destroy all its electrical and power infrastructure. A gift to Ukraine with winter on its way; Moscow's version of a neighbourly act; Ukraine can freeze in the dark along with Germany and the rest of Europe cut off from Russian oil and gas.

Russian forces have been ordered to organize mass evacuations of civilians from Kherson even while the Ukrainian counteroffensive makes its way toward the southern city of over 250,000 people, industries and a major port. It is abundantly clear that Russia's hold on Kherson, the city and the province is becoming more tenuous by the day after a half-year of occupation. Under Putin's newly announced martial law order, Russian positions have been rolled back on the west bank of the Dnieper River.

 

Pulling civilians out of Kherson Russian forces are hoping to fortify their positions count on the river to serve as a natural barrier against the Ukrainian advance. Russian state television features the city's residents crowding on the banks of the Dnieper, waiting to cross by boat to the east, deeper into Russia-controlled territory. A voluntary move according to Moscow, but the simple fact is, Kherson residents mostly have no other routes out of the city available to them.

 

That forced deportations of thousands of Ukrainian children has been found and reported, to have the children raised as Russian has been verified. Russian authorities warn in Kherson of Ukrainian plans to attack the city in an effort to instill fear in residents and convince them to leave. Text messages have warned Kherson residents that shelling will soon occur. The evacuation represents "a propaganda show" warns Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian presidential office.

 

Warning the Kherson public that Ukrainian forces would shell the city was "a rather primitive tactic, given that the Armed Forces do not fire at Ukrainian cities". Oleh Zhdanov, a Ukrainian military analyst, added that the operation could be a precursor for intense fighting and 'the harshest' tactics from Russia's new commander for Ukraine, Gen. Sergei Surovikin. "They are prepared to wipe the city from the face of the a\Earth, but not give it back to the Ukrainians". For General Surovikin, aerial bombing of Syria was a practise run.

Mindanao, Philippines, Islamist Insurrection

"A further extension of the implementation of martial law ... will help quell completely and put an end to the ongoing rebellion in Mindanao and prevent the same from escalating to other parts of the country."
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte

"The reason we live under a red alert is that the Maute can look like civilians. We worry that they may come here [Iligan City]. We fear that they are already among our population."
"That is why we support martial law. We know that Duterte does this for our own safety."
Daryl Lugatiman, clothing designer, Philippines

"We call the Maute terrorists because of the destruction they have caused in our place [Marawi, Mindanao]. They claim they are jihadists and are suddenly calling themselves Islamic State, but that is branding. They do not even know what jihad is."
"What they really are is extremists. What they are doing is un-Islamic. They have taken Islamic principles and misinterpreted them."
Nassib Sambaco, former Marawi councillor

"[The Maute were] inspired by ISIL central, ideologically and tactically."
"[However], the group built] their narratives based in a local context of perceived or real government discrimination, a slow-moving peace process and the hard approach taken by President Duterte."
Ahmad Elmuhammady, Islam International University, Malaysia

"Is there not an alternative to air strikes? They have become an effective tool for the Maute to recruit in reaction]."
"The Maute are like a bacteria. They exist in parts of the body that are sensitive. But they are only one percent of the population, if it is even that high. This must be stopped but in the right way."
"[The people of Marawi do not support extremism], but what happens in Iraq and Syria means that our hearts and minds can be easily manipulated."
"This happens because of globalization. It is so easy now to exchange ideas and information. Young people and even some older people here can see extremist videos that were made in the Middle East. They like these videos because they believe that they tell them about Islam. The truth is that this is not Islam at all."
Abdullah Ahmad-Ali, lawyer, Marawi, Mindanao

"There was shooting and burning everywhere, the main campus of the University of Mindanao was badly damaged and the Maute were warning people to leave or they might die."
Marjana Sagusura, student, Marawi

"To see the planes flying is good. There has to be bombing because that is the terrorists' stronghold."
"I am not angry with Muslims, but I wonder why they make trouble. We must be vigilant to keep our own city [Iligan City] peaceful and safe."
Ricardo Naboyng, duty guard

In a press conference, presidential spokesperson Harry Roque said Duterte this week will receive the Armed Forces of the Philippines’ recommendation on whether military rule in Mindanao must be prolonged. AP/Bullit Marquez

If jihad is not Islam, then it would be most instructive to the world at large to know what Islam is. Muslims claim it to be a religion of peace. The Koran and the Hadiths have the duty of believers writ  large in their obligation to engage in jihad, one of the vital pillars of Islam. The 'extremists' are simply exercising their obligation as believers to follow the instructions of the Koran. To state ad infinitum from various points of the globe from among the ummah that this is not Islam is beyond disingenuous.

The Christians living in Iligan believe that the people of Marawi, Philippine Muslims, deserve what is happening to their city for their tacit complicity in support of the Islamist groups, the Maute, Abu Sayyaf and Islamic State. Of the 100-million population of the various islands that comprise the Philippines, 80-million are devout Roman Catholics. They are willing to live with the Muslims in their midst, but not, obviously, when the 'extremists' among them are violently abusive, threatening stability and causing death and destruction.

It is a small percentage of the ten-million Muslim Filipinos admittedly, that are wreaking this damage to the larger community of the Philippines by attacking villages and cities to claim them for Islam, and by kidnapping foreigners, holding them for ransom, and when none is forthcoming, placing the Philippines in international news headlines by beheading the captives. The Islamist opposition to the central command of the federal government is not viewed kindly by its president, a man who never hesitates to employ violence when he is opposed.

The martial law imposed when the Maute clan and their allies, foreign fighters and Abu Sayyaf invaded Marawi in a five-month conflict remains in place despite the military having brought order and control to Mindanao killing the elite of the militant terrorists. Because the threats yet continue martial law has been extended through the coming year. Fears that the deadly conflict from Muslim Marawi could spread to Christian Iligan City ensures that support for Muslims is muted.

In this June 2, 2017 photo, President Rodrigo Duterte visits the 102nd Infantry Brigade Headquarters in Ipil, Zamboanga Sibugay. PCOO/Released

Even so, in Iligan City thousands of Philippine troops pass one another, the battle-weary ones passing in the opposite direction of the fresh troops heading toward the fight as Vietnam-era helicopters whomp overhead and PA-50 warplanes carrying rockets and bombs stream forward to the southern battle zone. In the besieged city of Marawi, police and army checkpoints create a gauntlet of restricted passage. In the last general election that elevated Duterte to the presidency, Marawi voted for Duterte.

In most of Mindanao the man remains popular and trusted to put down these violent insurrections, yet his air strike war on Marawi has understandably undercut his support from Muslims. Central Marawi is destroyed thanks to the air bombing campaign. In the ruins of Marawi, the Maute/AbuSayyaf/Islamic State fighters were able to hold out by hiding and fighting in its ruins even while vastly outnumbered and outgunned by Philippine forces.

A situation that "lifted the prestige of the Philippine fighters in the eyes of ISIS central [and] has inspired young extremists from around the region to want to join [them]", wrote the Jakarta-based Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict. Only a strong government determination to rebuild the destroyed city will give Filipino Muslims in Mindanao the comfort to believe the government views their needs as equal to those of the Christian population.

"I don't like Muslims because they make trouble for Christians by bombing and ambushing them. Some of them are traitors who hate Christians. My feelings are so strong that I can't really talk about them, although I know that some Muslims aren't bad", stated Pentecostal Merlinda Halisbas, as she mulled the future of the country and her president's challenge once the restoration of peace has been accomplished.