Illusory Victories

"We can confirm that Russian military personnel that are based in Crimea have been piloting Iranian [drones] and using them to conduct strikes across Ukraine, including strikes against Kiev in just recent days. We assess that Iranian military personnel were on the ground in Crimea and assisted Russia in these operations".

"[The Iranians] have put trainers and tech support in Crimea, but it's the Russians who are doing the piloting."

"We're going to continue to vigorously enforce all U.S. sanctions on both the Russian and Iranian arms trade. We're going to make it harder for Iran to sell these weapons to Russia. We're going to help the Ukrainians have what they need to defend themselves against these threats."

White House spokesman John Kirby

 

"We now need to legalize this state in accordance with Russian legislation." 

"Therefore, I have signed a decree introducing martial law in these four regions of Russia."

"We are working to solve very difficult large-scale tasks to ensure Russia's security and safe future."

Russian President Vladimir Putin

 

"Putin’s martial law in the annexed regions … is preparation for the mass deportation of the Ukrainian population to depressed areas of [Russia] in order to change the ethnic composition of the occupied territory," 

Oleksiy Danilov, secretary, Ukraine’s national security and defense council

 

"[I would not not rule out] difficult decisions."

"Our plans and actions regarding the city of Kherson will depend on the unfolding military-tactical situation."

"I would like to reiterate that it is quite difficult today,"

Col. Gen. Sergei Surovikin, commander, Russian assault on Ukraine

People gather in Kherson for evacuation. Dmitry Marmyshev / TASS

 Vladimir Putin is inhabiting a world all his own. Where his edicts and aspirations must never be questioned and the means to attain them may surpass all other nations' excesses in human depravity, through wilful destruction of civilian life, civil infrastructure, threatening nuclear conflict, forcing civilians to abandon their homes and self-exile to Russia from territory -- ironically enough that he has himself declared annexed -- into the Russian Federation. 

 

The four Ukrainian provinces were never fully occupied by the Russian military, and the Ukrainian counteroffensive is systematically and determinedly reclaiming hundreds of towns and villages, forcing the Russian military to pull back from its front lines, but Putin identifies those same areas where his troops are fast losing ground as 'Russian', not Ukrainian geography.

Because he has declared them part of greater Russia, Mr. Putin threatens he may yet be obliged by Ukrainian intransigence in continuing to pursue Russian troops, to cut off supply and escape routes, to shove them back over the border, a declaration of war by Ukraine on Russia. Whereas Russia's modest 'military special operation' is merely a mild gesture of neighbourly misunderstanding.

 

A view shows the city administration building hit by recent shelling in the course of Ukraine-Russia conflict, in Donetsk, Russian-controlled Ukraine, October 16, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko

 

 

 

 

 A misunderstanding that has led Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy who once argued he was fully prepared to meet with Putin face-to-face to discuss their differences, now adamant that he will not under current circumstances agree to 'peace' talks. Moscow thinks it is perfectly reasonable for peace talks to proceed as long as Ukraine agrees to the permanent loss of 18 percent of its territory, then an agreeable peace can be installed. Until such time as the Kremlin decides that not enough territory has been achieved and launches another 'special military operation'.

President Zelenskyy feels there is little point meeting with Russian negotiators to bargain for peace with four of Ukraine's provinces not merely held to ransom, but remaining in the hands of its Russian persecutors. He did reasonably say that with a change of administration in Moscow, with Putin gone from governance, he may be willing to discuss peace and the handover back of any still-occupied Ukrainian territory that his own military has not yet restored in de-occupation.

Martial law now applies on the four illegally annexed regions of Ukraine. A strange and delusional response to the Ukrainian military gaining the upper hand over the occupying Russian military now in quick retreat. Aerial bombardment of civilian areas all over Ukraine, its towns and cities, with a special mission to destroy all its electrical and power infrastructure. A gift to Ukraine with winter on its way; Moscow's version of a neighbourly act; Ukraine can freeze in the dark along with Germany and the rest of Europe cut off from Russian oil and gas.

Russian forces have been ordered to organize mass evacuations of civilians from Kherson even while the Ukrainian counteroffensive makes its way toward the southern city of over 250,000 people, industries and a major port. It is abundantly clear that Russia's hold on Kherson, the city and the province is becoming more tenuous by the day after a half-year of occupation. Under Putin's newly announced martial law order, Russian positions have been rolled back on the west bank of the Dnieper River.

 

Pulling civilians out of Kherson Russian forces are hoping to fortify their positions count on the river to serve as a natural barrier against the Ukrainian advance. Russian state television features the city's residents crowding on the banks of the Dnieper, waiting to cross by boat to the east, deeper into Russia-controlled territory. A voluntary move according to Moscow, but the simple fact is, Kherson residents mostly have no other routes out of the city available to them.

 

That forced deportations of thousands of Ukrainian children has been found and reported, to have the children raised as Russian has been verified. Russian authorities warn in Kherson of Ukrainian plans to attack the city in an effort to instill fear in residents and convince them to leave. Text messages have warned Kherson residents that shelling will soon occur. The evacuation represents "a propaganda show" warns Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian presidential office.

 

Warning the Kherson public that Ukrainian forces would shell the city was "a rather primitive tactic, given that the Armed Forces do not fire at Ukrainian cities". Oleh Zhdanov, a Ukrainian military analyst, added that the operation could be a precursor for intense fighting and 'the harshest' tactics from Russia's new commander for Ukraine, Gen. Sergei Surovikin. "They are prepared to wipe the city from the face of the a\Earth, but not give it back to the Ukrainians". For General Surovikin, aerial bombing of Syria was a practise run.