Ukrainian Kherson ... Humiliated Moscow

 

"Kherson is returning to the control of Ukraine, Units of the armed forces of Ukraine are entering the city."

"The Russian occupiers' routes of retreat are under the direct fire of the Ukrainian Army."

"Any Russian soldier who resists will be killed."

Ukrainian Defense Ministry

 

"In total, more than 30,000 Russian servicemen, about 5,000 pieces of hardware, and military equipment and materiel have been withdrawn."

"Not a single piece of military equipment or weaponry was left on the right [western] bank."  

Russian Defense Ministry

 

"[Russian troops] have been changing into civilian clothes for two weeks."

"This should focus our forces as it means saboteur operations cannot be ruled out."

"Because of this, we are not rushing to announce our successes in other directions and in other towns."

Natalya Humenyuk, head, joint coordination press center, Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine

 

"The Russian invaders continue to loot the settlements from which they are retreating."

"The enemy is also attempting to damage power lines and other elements of the transport and critical infrastructure of the Kherson region as much as possible."

"[Russian mines continue to wound civilians]."

Ukrainian General Staff 

"Today is a historic day. We are returning Kherson. As of now, our defenders are on the approaches to the city. But special units are already in the city."

"Today we have good news from the south. The number of Ukrainian flags returning to their rightful place within the framework of the ongoing defense operation is already dozens."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskii

 

The advance units of the Ukrainian military entering Kherson were met with joy from residents in the centre of Kherson following the Russian abandonment of the sole regional capital captured in the early days of the 'special military operation' that brought a scorched-earth war to Ukraine, courtesy of the Kremlin. Russia had announced that not one piece of Russian military equipment had been left behind, all taken off by the retreating Russian military, ordered to leave the city that Vladimir Putin had mere weeks earlier declared a permanent part of Russia

 

Instead of the orderly military retreat ordered by Moscow, and described by the Russian military command, the Ukrainian military described a scene of chaotic retreat, Russian troops leaving their uniforms behind, abandoning weapons, and in their panic diving into the Dnieper River and drowning.

The Russian military command spoke of withdrawing 30,000 troops, and not a single soldier was lost, they boasted.

 

 

 

Videos showed Ukrainians chanting victory slogans in Kherson's central square welcoming the first Ukrainian troops to arrive. Kherson returned to Ukrainian control as Ukraine's defence intelligence agency ordered any remaining Russian troops to surrender to the Ukrainian forces entering the city. During one of the most rapid, humiliating of Russian retreats, villagers emerged from hiding, describing Russian troops killing residents and looting homes.

 

Some 20 jukinetres north of Kherson, Ukrainian soldiers took over positions in the recaptured village of Riahodatne where at the entrance of the village, Ukrainian troops assessed a large stockpile of 120 mm mortarshells left by the retreating Russians in a dilapidated warehouse. A large number of Russian soldiers had reportedly drowned in the Dnieper in their attempt to escape, while others had changed into civilian clothing. Residents were advised not to leave their homes during searches for remaining Russian troops.

 

"Saboteur operations cannot be ruled out", by Russian troops in civilian clothes, cautioned Natalia Humenuk speaking for the southern command of the Ukrainian military. According to pro-Russian war bloggers, Russian forces were crossing the river and coming under heavy fire from Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian forces, according to the Russian ministry, had struck Dniepro River crossings five times overnight with HIMARS rocket systems.

The advance of Ukrainian troops was as surprising as the hurried departure of the Russian troops; both in rapid order. In Ukraine's instance far more so than officials had suggested, leaving Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov to speculate it could take a week for Russia to pull entirely out of the Kherson region, estimating that Russia still had some 40,000 troops in the region, with intelligence confirming Russian forces remained in and around the region.

President Zelensky with soldiers on Monday. 14 November   Reuters

 

Illusory Victories

"We can confirm that Russian military personnel that are based in Crimea have been piloting Iranian [drones] and using them to conduct strikes across Ukraine, including strikes against Kiev in just recent days. We assess that Iranian military personnel were on the ground in Crimea and assisted Russia in these operations".

"[The Iranians] have put trainers and tech support in Crimea, but it's the Russians who are doing the piloting."

"We're going to continue to vigorously enforce all U.S. sanctions on both the Russian and Iranian arms trade. We're going to make it harder for Iran to sell these weapons to Russia. We're going to help the Ukrainians have what they need to defend themselves against these threats."

White House spokesman John Kirby

 

"We now need to legalize this state in accordance with Russian legislation." 

"Therefore, I have signed a decree introducing martial law in these four regions of Russia."

"We are working to solve very difficult large-scale tasks to ensure Russia's security and safe future."

Russian President Vladimir Putin

 

"Putin’s martial law in the annexed regions … is preparation for the mass deportation of the Ukrainian population to depressed areas of [Russia] in order to change the ethnic composition of the occupied territory," 

Oleksiy Danilov, secretary, Ukraine’s national security and defense council

 

"[I would not not rule out] difficult decisions."

"Our plans and actions regarding the city of Kherson will depend on the unfolding military-tactical situation."

"I would like to reiterate that it is quite difficult today,"

Col. Gen. Sergei Surovikin, commander, Russian assault on Ukraine

People gather in Kherson for evacuation. Dmitry Marmyshev / TASS

 Vladimir Putin is inhabiting a world all his own. Where his edicts and aspirations must never be questioned and the means to attain them may surpass all other nations' excesses in human depravity, through wilful destruction of civilian life, civil infrastructure, threatening nuclear conflict, forcing civilians to abandon their homes and self-exile to Russia from territory -- ironically enough that he has himself declared annexed -- into the Russian Federation. 

 

The four Ukrainian provinces were never fully occupied by the Russian military, and the Ukrainian counteroffensive is systematically and determinedly reclaiming hundreds of towns and villages, forcing the Russian military to pull back from its front lines, but Putin identifies those same areas where his troops are fast losing ground as 'Russian', not Ukrainian geography.

Because he has declared them part of greater Russia, Mr. Putin threatens he may yet be obliged by Ukrainian intransigence in continuing to pursue Russian troops, to cut off supply and escape routes, to shove them back over the border, a declaration of war by Ukraine on Russia. Whereas Russia's modest 'military special operation' is merely a mild gesture of neighbourly misunderstanding.

 

A view shows the city administration building hit by recent shelling in the course of Ukraine-Russia conflict, in Donetsk, Russian-controlled Ukraine, October 16, 2022. REUTERS/Alexander Ermochenko

 

 

 

 

 A misunderstanding that has led Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelenskyy who once argued he was fully prepared to meet with Putin face-to-face to discuss their differences, now adamant that he will not under current circumstances agree to 'peace' talks. Moscow thinks it is perfectly reasonable for peace talks to proceed as long as Ukraine agrees to the permanent loss of 18 percent of its territory, then an agreeable peace can be installed. Until such time as the Kremlin decides that not enough territory has been achieved and launches another 'special military operation'.

President Zelenskyy feels there is little point meeting with Russian negotiators to bargain for peace with four of Ukraine's provinces not merely held to ransom, but remaining in the hands of its Russian persecutors. He did reasonably say that with a change of administration in Moscow, with Putin gone from governance, he may be willing to discuss peace and the handover back of any still-occupied Ukrainian territory that his own military has not yet restored in de-occupation.

Martial law now applies on the four illegally annexed regions of Ukraine. A strange and delusional response to the Ukrainian military gaining the upper hand over the occupying Russian military now in quick retreat. Aerial bombardment of civilian areas all over Ukraine, its towns and cities, with a special mission to destroy all its electrical and power infrastructure. A gift to Ukraine with winter on its way; Moscow's version of a neighbourly act; Ukraine can freeze in the dark along with Germany and the rest of Europe cut off from Russian oil and gas.

Russian forces have been ordered to organize mass evacuations of civilians from Kherson even while the Ukrainian counteroffensive makes its way toward the southern city of over 250,000 people, industries and a major port. It is abundantly clear that Russia's hold on Kherson, the city and the province is becoming more tenuous by the day after a half-year of occupation. Under Putin's newly announced martial law order, Russian positions have been rolled back on the west bank of the Dnieper River.

 

Pulling civilians out of Kherson Russian forces are hoping to fortify their positions count on the river to serve as a natural barrier against the Ukrainian advance. Russian state television features the city's residents crowding on the banks of the Dnieper, waiting to cross by boat to the east, deeper into Russia-controlled territory. A voluntary move according to Moscow, but the simple fact is, Kherson residents mostly have no other routes out of the city available to them.

 

That forced deportations of thousands of Ukrainian children has been found and reported, to have the children raised as Russian has been verified. Russian authorities warn in Kherson of Ukrainian plans to attack the city in an effort to instill fear in residents and convince them to leave. Text messages have warned Kherson residents that shelling will soon occur. The evacuation represents "a propaganda show" warns Andriy Yermak, head of the Ukrainian presidential office.

 

Warning the Kherson public that Ukrainian forces would shell the city was "a rather primitive tactic, given that the Armed Forces do not fire at Ukrainian cities". Oleh Zhdanov, a Ukrainian military analyst, added that the operation could be a precursor for intense fighting and 'the harshest' tactics from Russia's new commander for Ukraine, Gen. Sergei Surovikin. "They are prepared to wipe the city from the face of the a\Earth, but not give it back to the Ukrainians". For General Surovikin, aerial bombing of Syria was a practise run.

Cat and Mouse in Kherson

"The Ukrainians are not in a hurry. The intent is clearly to make it as difficult as possible for the Russians to hold their positions."

"The Russian theory of victory is to project force until the Ukrainians lose their strategic depth, which is their support from the US. and Europe."

"The Ukrainian theory of victory is that they degrade Russian forces until they are unable to fight."

Jack Watling. senior research fellow for land warfare, Royal United Services Institution, U.K. 

"Western arms shipments have bolstered Ukraine's potential, but they don't give it a decisive advantage."

"Ukraine can slow us down, but they can't do that forever."

Igor Korotchenko, head, Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade, Moscow

A Ukrainian artillery unit fires at a position in the Kharkiv region. The gains have been made while Moscow is focused on repelling Ukraine’s southern counter-offensive around Kherson    Ihor Thachev/AFP/Getty Images

Ukrainian forces, points out Mr. Korotchenko, are suffering major casualties in Kherson. It certainly doesn't seem so, although it's difficult to verify or squash the claim. Independent investigators cannot enter the fighting zone. The world at large must weigh the propaganda coming out of Moscow and Kyiv bearing in mind what can be verified, to sift through false messaging for the glimmer of fact.

 

Ukraine' counteroffensive is now a week old, a limited scale operation where the country's military is realizing some of its goals through early positive results. There has been confirmation that at least two villages have been recaptured by Ukraine, fairly well demolishing the Russian claims of Ukrainian push-back failure. Further, Russian-occupied Kherson authorities postponed a planned referendum on joining Russia due to a situation of 'security risks'.

The Ukrainian advance has matched the progress of Russia's widely derided intention on the eve of its invasion of Ukraine to speedily seize the eastern Donbas region, part of which Moscow had already annexed along with the conversion of Donetsk and Luhansk to independent 'republics' with firm links to Russia. Conquering the entire Donbas was to be seen as compensation for the Russian military's inability to swiftly enter Kyiv and dispatch its government.

The fighting personnel level of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is far more modest in comparison to the Russian military presence. In terms of ammunition and casualties, it is incurring lower costs with its measured advance. There is the targeted 40 to 50 km territory to retake, modest in comparison to hundreds of km in the Donbas. Ukrainian troops are engrossed in pinning the Russians against the Dnipro River 

Each of the protagonists are involved in disrupting the other's supply lines in hopes of achieving a situation where forces are drained of the means to fight. Longer range High Mobility Rocket Systems (HIMARS) supplied by the U.S. to interdict the flow of ammunition to Russia's huge artillery forces gives focus to the Ukraine mission. It requires making their way through Russian forces in Kherson, where reliance on a few damaged bridges over the Dnipro River is vulnerable to halting reinforcment and arms.

Russian heavy losses of troops and equipment has it focusing increasingly on implementing discord among financial and arms suppliers to Ukraine. Their goal is to stifle  Kyiv's intentions to continue fighting. The Kremlin relies heavily on the expectation that economic pain Europe is being hit with will erode its political support for Ukraine as recession hits and living costs soar.

Supplies of natural gas from Russia to Germany via the Nord Stream pipeline has been shut off, with the warning that it will be opened only if and when European nations drop their economic sanctions against Moscow. Moscow's downbeat mood reflecting battlefield progress reeks of lost morale. The calculation is that the stalemate between the two sides risks turning in Ukraine's favour while it builds up reserves and  acquires modern arms.

The Institute for the Study of War describes the Kherson counteroffensive as verifiably and "tangibly degrading Russian logistics and administrative capabilities in southern Ukraine". Kyiv has stated its intention of pushing Russia out of all its territory that comprises its internationally recognized border including Crimea, annexed by Moscow in 2014.

"F***ing HIMARS s**t. They are long-range and our tank was hit too....,"

"We already have 300's [wounded] here. They f***ed us up. Next to us were boys from Belogorsk, from the 165th Brigade."

"Shrapnel hit the big time, f**k...they laid under the tank, it hit the tank. Boys didn't have trenches or anything."

Russian soldier speaking to his wife; Ukraine-intercepted call

A Russian serviceman.This week, Ukrainian intelligence released audio of what was claimed to be an intercepted call of a Russian soldier allegedly telling his wife about the losses Russia has sustained in Ukraine's efforts to retake the southern Kherson region. KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV/AFP/Getty Images