Ukraine's Moral Impertinence

"It's not a fun day today: loud sounds of explosions woke us up at 6:30 a.m."

"My wife suggested we move to the basement but what if something hit us: I wouldn't want to be buried in some basement. What will be will be."

"The only good thing is the kids are in Milan."

Viktor Bondarenko, Rublyovka, Moscow suburb

"What on earth are you doing, stinky morons?"

"Why the f--- did you let those drones get to Moscow?'

"They're flying to Tublyovka to your houses -- let your houses go up in flames!"

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin

Russia has deployed drones against Ukrainian cities for months but has recently faced a growing wave of attacks within its own borders.  Aleksandr Kazakov / Sipa USA via AP

"The attack caused little damage, was irrelevant for most Russians, and is being finessed by the Russian media as another Ukrainian provocation in the face of Russian restraint."

"Single incidents such as this will not change Russian domestic politics appreciably. What matters more are larger trends, such as the situation on the ground in Ukraine and the level of Russian military casualties."

Christopher Tuck, expert in conflict and security, King’s College London

When drones strike inside Russia's borders they are called terrorist attacks. When drones strike within Ukraine in huge numbers targeting civilian infrastructure the Kremlin shrugs at a commonplace of war even while denying its troops deliberately hit civilian structures from hospitals to schools, medical clinics to shopping centres. A number of 'terrorist' attacks have struck inside Russia, even targeting a Kremlin building, and according to Moscow a 'terrorist' drone struck in Sevastopol, occupied Crimea, targeting the headquarters of the Russian Black Sea Fleet.

 

Completely intolerable. The Iran-produced Shahed drones are more powerful, can strike further and carry a larger explosive load than the UJ-22 Ukraine revealed in 2021, with a range of 800 km, carrying up to 20 kg of explosives. "A Muscovite has just found out that this country is at war ... Smoothies and scooter rides are cancelled", reporter Andrei Rudenko at state TV in occupied Donetsk wrote on his Telegram channel, posting a video of a young man in disbelief seeing a number of fire engines parked outside his home.

The drone fleet that hit the wealthiest neighbourhoods in Moscow may very well have been the work of the same Russian opposition groups that had staged a cross-border raid several weeks ago, likely with the connivance of Kyiv since they're also part of the foreign volunteer brigades fighting Moscow in Ukraine.Their choice targets and their aims of the UAVs are certainly admirable. As is the decision to stun ordinary Russians with the reality of a war their leadership imposed on Ukraine reaching out to touch them personally.

Or, as Russian lawmaker Maxim Ivanov was reported stating that no Russian could now avoid "the new reality". The Kremlin is now accusing Ukraine of 'war crimes' for sending Ukraine-produced UAVs into civilian areas of the Russian capital. Something that the Russian military has been doing without a twitch of conscience to Ukrainian cities and Ukrainian citizens for over a year, even while protesting that their military never targets civilians. 

An estimated thirteen drones crashed across Moscow, although the Kremlin admits to only eight, most of which they claim were shot down. Eight -- according to Russia's defence ministry -- attacked Moscow, but they had shot down five and electronically jammed three. Which is rather amazing given that a number of buildings were hit and sustained notable damage. Russia's air defence "successfully reacted to the attack", according to Vladimir Putin, adding there were "things to work on", presumably Russia's defences against penetration of such strikes hitting the city's most sheltered areas.

 

Law enforcement officers and investigators are seen outside a damaged multi-storey apartment building after a reported drone attack in Moscow on Tuesday. (Kirill Kudryavtseva/AFP/Getty Images)

 

Which of course, is where the elite and the wealthy reside in their mansions, never dreaming they might be the victims of attacks, awakening to the reality that is far from new for the tens of thousands of ordinary Ukrainians who have lived or died through countless midnight and early-morning artillery strikes and deadly drones disrupting the normalcy of life and robbing many of their very existence. This latest surprise event has awakened Russia's elite and its ordinary citizens to the extraordinary realization that they too are targets of war.

Moscow's 'Beverly Hills' neighbourhood, Rublyovka, saw residents rudely jarred from sleep by explosions as drones attacked their sheltered area. Some drones detonated while striking power lines. Nearby villages less than ten kilometres from Putin's official residence were impacted as drones were shot down over Romashkova and Razdory, one of which crashed across the river from the community that is home to Arkady Rotenberg, Putin's close friend, along with the homes of top defence ministry officials.

Gazprom's chief, living in the luxury neighbourhood of Grinfield saw it too hit by a drone, but the Russian gas giant's mansion was spared. Where finance Minister Anton Silunaov lives, video footage showed a drone flying over French-style estates in Ilyinskoye. Moscow's Pantsir air defences fired rockets to intercept the drones, but not all unmanned aerial vehicles were downed outside the beltway separating the city from the suburbs; at least three drones crashed into two highrise buildings south-west of the capital.

Bomb squads arrived to defuse three explosive devices when a drone flew into a block of apartments and the building was evacuated. 

 

Russian authorities are accusing Ukraine of launching drone strikes in Moscow that damaged some buildings and alarmed residents. Ukraine has endured a series of deadly airstrikes this month and denies any involvement.   Still from video CBC

In Ukraine, the war goes on, as Russia launched a predawn air raid on Kyiv, killing at least one person and sending the capital's residents again scrambling into shelters. According to information from the Kyiv Military Administration, at least 20 Shahed explosive drones were destroyed by air defence forces in Kyiv's airspace, in Russia's third attack on the capital in the past 24 hours. Overall, Ukraine shot down 29 of 31 drones fired into the country, most in the Kyiv area, the air force later said. These overwhelming numbers of UAVs, fully explosive, are aimed at civilian infrastructure as always, not to be confused with terrorist acts by Ukraine.

 

Islamist Member of NATO : A Non-Alliance

"The alliance that brought him to power this time was underwritten by a nationalist voter base, but also designed to create a sense of urgency among his supporters that whether it was Kurdish militants, western-oriented liberals or foreign powers, they all wanted to topple Erdoğan with this election."

"What he’s doing is what we’ve seen cultural conservatives do across eastern Europe and even in Russia, claiming that our way of life is under attack and ‘I’m standing up for traditional values’."

"After winning on a ticket like this one, a complete 180-degree turn into inclusive and conciliatory language would be surprising."

Ziya Meral of the Royal United Services Institute

 

"The opposition tried to make this election about the economy, about the aftermath of the earthquakes and corruption."

"Instead, Erdoğan made it about how he was able to defend Turkey against terrorists, identity politics and polarization."

Soner Cagaptay, analyst, Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Recep Tayyip Erdogan changed the Republic of Turkey from the Kemalist secular democracy it had been for close to a hundred years with its emphasis on and identification with Western values, through his deliberate reintroduction of Islamist values and principles, emphasizing and stressing Islam's importance to the nation as he moved it steadily away from the identity values established by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. Erdogan's investiture met with resistance from the military which traditionally upheld the Turkey that Ataturk envisaged.

His ruthless extirpation of senior military figures from command, in their resistance against his Islamization of Turkey was but a rehearsal in comparison to his reaction to the 2016 attempted coup that failed. Erdogan set about arresting and imprisoning anyone he suspected might have been involved in the coup, from police, to lawyers, military personnel, to journalists, sweeping through the country to identify, charge and imprison any who might have lent themselves to opposing Erdogan's government.

The Turkey that became a member of NATO is no longer the same country whose Western orientation gave it entree to the European/North American military alliance. Its Western allegiance and identification diminished in favour of honouring its Muslim heritage of the Ottoman Empire, Turkey has been a poor fit for NATO since Erdogan won power. He transited from an autocrat to a dictator, a strongman with much in common with Vladimir Putin, and even emulated Mr. Putin's gradual assumption of supreme power in Russia.

Erdogan's fixation on Turkey's Kurdish population as 'terrorists' eager to splinter Turkey's geography refuses to recognize Kurdistan's ancestral right to geographical territory in Turkey, Syria, Iraq and Iran, none of which would dream of surrendering land to its ancestral inheritors. The Kurdish homeland was betrayed though promised by France and England, the occupying powers who preferred in the end to gift Turkey and the other three with national borders encompassing Kurdistan. 

Prior to Recep Tayyip Erdogan's Islamist government relations with its neighbours, both East and West bore witness to the aspirations of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk's forward-looking plan to modernize and Westernize Turkey. Re-election was won by Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party in an unusual run-off when the original general election failed to produce a majority winner. Two weeks later, Erdogan won the 52 percent he needed for re-election and Turkey remains in a state of polarization.

The Turkish lira is almost worthless against the U.S. dollar, people are suffering economic hardships in the lack of affordability of all measures of a reasonable standard of living. Skyrocketing inflation must be effectively confronted at a time when Erdogan refuses to adopt recognized methods of dealing with economic failure. The devastating earthquake that hit Turkey and Syria killing over 50,000 people levelled entire cities at a time when government emergency response was inadequate and the building code problems that have long haunted Turkey were laid at Erdogan's feet.

Where Erdogan's presidential challenger Kemal Kilicdaroglu  addressed the real problems that Turkey was facing, vowing to lead the country back to prosperity and secularism, Erdogan's campaign leaned heavily on national paranoia, emphasizing terrorism afflicting the nation, code for Kurds demanding equal treatment and the autonomy they demand justice for.  Mr. Kilicdaroglu pointed to the need to amend relations with the West and with Turkey's Kurdish demographic, but the fear factor worked in Erdogan's favour.

"Turkey will likely signal it is open to some form of rapprochement, such as by encouraging parliament's ratification of Sweden's accession to NATO."

"Erdogan has successfully maintained a multi-vector foreign policy which has enabled him to have constructive relations with Russia, China and countries throughout the Middle East, even if this has been to the detriment of Turkey's alliances with the West."

Jay Truesdale, head, geopolitical risk consultancy, Veracity Worldwide

Reflecting Erdogan's global ambitions, he declared that with the country marking its centennial this year, the world would see a "Turkish century". It is beyond absurd that Turkey is a member of NATO, with the third largest standing army, and that its government stands in the way of Sweden's acceptance into the alliance as a kind of moral blackmail, trying to force Sweden to surrender its protection of 'terrorists' (Kurds) as the price for NATO entry. Similar to the blackmail exerted by Erdogan to restrain Syrian refugees from flooding Europe in exchange for funding for Turkey's sprawling Syrian refugee camps.

Erdogan's purchase of Russian-made military equipment that NATO emphatically pointed out would make Turkey odd-nation-out in the use of inter-related military equipment stands in stark contrast to other NATO-member countries' steadfast interest in maintaining inter-operability within NATO as a working military union of like-minded nations. All of NATO with the exception of Turkey has enforced sanctions against Moscow for the invasion of Ukraine.

"Another five years of Erdogan means more of the geopolitical balancing act between Russia and the West."

"Turkey and the West will engage in transactional co-operation wherever [Turkey's] interests dictate it -- and it will compartmentalize its relationship."

Galip Dalay, associate fellow, Chatham House, London

Volt Typhoon, PRC State Hack, Cybersecurity

"[Volt Typhoon] typically focuses on espionage and information gathering."

"Microsoft assesses with moderate confidence that this Volt Typhoon campaign is pursuing development of capabilities that could disrupt critical communications infrastructure between the United States and Asia region during future crises."

"In addition, Volt Typhoon tries to blend into normal network activity by routing traffic through compromised small office and home office network equipment, including routers, firewalls and VPN hardware."

Microsoft

• Research
• Threat intelligence
• Microsoft Defender
• Threat actors

"A [People's Republic of China] state-sponsored actor is living off the land, using built-in network tools to evade our defences and leaving no trace behind."

"That makes it imperative for us to work together to find and remove the actor from our critical networks."

"Indicators of compromise [first discovered by Microsoft, attributed to Volt Typhoon, a Chinese state actor active since mid-2021 using a style of attack described as] living off the land [using existing network tools and valid credentials to avoid detection]."

Rob Joyce, director of cybersecurity, U.S. National Security Agency

U.S. critical infrastructure has been targeted by State-sponsored hackers from China, warned Microsoft, alerting cybersecurity officials across the globe in a co-ordinated strategy to identify and stop the perpetrators. One of several international agencies, part of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, the Canadian Centre for Cyber Security took its part in amplifying the alert issued by the U.S. National Security Agency.

The Microsoft report indicated that infrastructure facilities around the United States, including Guam, where the U.S. maintains an air force base and naval port, have already been targeted by Volt Typhoon. Both represent central elements of the American military presence in the Pacific Ocean. Guam and its military installations were among the principal targets according to Pentagon officials, of the Chinese spy balloon shot down in February after drifting for a week through North American airspace.

 

The suspected Chinese spy balloon drifts to the ocean after being shot down off the coast in Surfside Beach, South Carolina, U.S. on February 4, 2023. (Randall Hill/Reuters)

The Canadian Centre for Cyber Security joins its international partners in sharing this newly identified threat and accompanying mitigation measures with critical infrastructure sectors."

Agency head Sami Khoury

The U.S. National Strategy To Counter Antisemitism

"[The first U.S. National Strategy to Counter Antisemitism sends a] clear and forceful message [that] in America, evil will  not win, hate will not prevail."

"The venom and violence of antisemitism will not be the story of our time."

U.S. President Joe Biden 

"I know the fear. I know the pain. I know the anger that Jews are living with because of this epidemic of hate."

"[I never envisaged this issue would become] my cause [as second gentleman of the U.S. [administration] but now, more than ever, we must all rise to the challenge and meet this moment."

Doug Emhoff, husband to U.S. Vice-President Kamala Harris

"As we see antisemitism and extremism increasingly normalized in our politics and our society, the urgency of this framework is even more clear."

Amy Spitalnick, CEO, Jewish Council for Public Affairs

 

"It's particularly notable that this approach recognizes that antisemitism is not about politics — it's about principles."

"We are pleased that this strategy comprehensively addresses hate and antisemitism on campus, online, and from extremists on both the far-right and the far-left."

ADL CEO Jonathan Greenblatt

President Joe Biden shakes hands with second gentleman Doug Emhoff during a celebration marking Jewish American Heritage Month last week. The administration has just released a comprehensive strategy for combating antisemitism. Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

In the United States, which has the second largest Jewish population in the world after Israel itself, a new announcement by U.S. President Joe Biden on the installation of what he described as the most ambitious and comprehensive undertaking by the U.S. government to battle against hate, bias and violence against Jews. Over 100 steps were outlined that the administration and its domestic partners are able to take in an all-out drive to combat a truly alarming rise in antisemitism.

The startling rise in antisemitism is certainly not limited to the United States. It is global in its spread, which makes it all the more puzzling and alarming. With the accession of Israel to its reborn status as the world's homeland for Jews on their ancient ancestral lands, and Israel's success in establishing itself as a democracy able to absorb the presence in their democratic model of other ethnic and religious groups along with a booming economy it almost seems as though the world has empathy with Jews only when they're in dire existential straits.

Israel's success in all indices of human life, consolidating its aspirations as a thriving, normal nation belying the effects of vigilance against constant violent attacks by neighbouring Palestinians appears to have soured a great swath of the world's population against Jews. Libelous slanders are welcomed as a way to tarnish diaspora and Israeli Jews alike, painting a deliberately canted view of the Jewish state as victimizing Palestinians whose leaders incite them to violence in a bid to unseat Israel from the Middle East.

Notorious public relations campaigns targeting Jews and Israel as 'occupiers' of their ancestral land who have as 'colonizers' wrenched it from the possession of Arabs from Egypt who migrated to the land familiarly known as Jewish Palestine to take advantage of better living conditions morphed into an Arab fantasy of authentic occupants of the land they claim as theirs alone, co-opting the name 'Palestinians' to prove themselves indigenous to the land. The ensuing hostilities and an organized Palestinian campaign to demonize Israel and by extension Jews who venerate Israel, has created an overwhelming wash of Jewhate.

The strategy that President Joe Biden spoke of in his announcement of the American government's commitment to battle antisemitism, has four basic goals:

• Increasing awareness and understanding of antisemitism including its threat to America and broadening appreciation of Jewish American heritage;
• Improving safety and security for Jewish communities;
• Reversing the normalization of antisemitism and countering antisemitic discrimination;
• Building 'cross-community' solidarity and collective action to counter hate.

Congress, state and local governments, tech firms and other private businesses, faith leaders and others are called on through the strategy to help combat bias and hate directed at Jews. "Zero tolerance" established by tech companies against antisemitic content on their platforms is a vital move. The U.S. Holocaust Memorial Museum commits to the launch of an education research centre. The strategy asks professional sports leagues and clubs to use their platforms and clout to help raise awareness.

Members of the public will be invited by the White House public engagement office to describe how they have supported Jewish, Muslim or other communities different from their own. The strategy envisages an all-in effort on the part of all Americans, whatever their backgrounds, affiliations, and concerns to dedicate themselves to a combined effort to make the Unites States a cohesive, safe environment for all its citizens, including the historically embattled Jewish community, long an established fixture in America.

U.S. second gentleman Douglas Emhoff speaks to the press as he visits to the Oskar Schindler Enamel Factory Museum in Krakow, Poland, on Jan. 28, 2023.

AP Photo/Michal Dyjuk 

"To support the whole-of-society call to action, today the Biden-Harris Administration also announced commitments to counter antisemitism and build cross-community solidarity by organizations across the private sector, civil society, religious and multi-faith communities, and higher education. Today’s announcements include commitments from the Anti-Defamation League, American Jewish Committee, Asian American Foundation, Black Jewish Entertainment Alliance, College of William & Mary, Council on American-Islamic Relations, Foundation to Combat Antisemitism alongside six professional sports leagues, Interfaith Alliance, Jewish Council for Public Affairs, National Action Network, National Basketball Players Association, National Urban League, Polarization & Extremism Research & Innovation Lab at American University, Recording Academy, Religious Freedom & Business Foundation, Sikh Coalition, Southern Poverty Law Center, and UnidosUS. The Administration calls on additional organizations to join this existing group in establishing their own impactful initiatives to counter antisemitism."

"In 2024, the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum will launch the first-ever U.S.-based Holocaust education research center. Once the new center is fully operational, it will undertake systematic, rigorous, and actionable research into teaching and learning about the Holocaust and study the impact and effectiveness of Holocaust education in the U.S. Agencies will also create new materials on contemporary antisemitism and Jewish American heritage and history. The U.S. government will also bolster research on antisemitism, its impact on American society, and its intersection with other forms of hate through funding opportunities, resources, and outreach from several agencies."

The White House Fact Sheet on Combating Antisemitism

Conquest-Seeking, Death-Threatening Iran

"One of the prominent characteristics of this missile is its ability to evade radar detection and penetrate enemy air defence systems, thanks to its low radar signature."

"This missile has the capability to utilize various warheads for different missions."

Iranian Defence Minister General Mohammad Reza Ashtiani

Iran's Defense Minister Brigadier General Mohammad-Reza Ashtiani speaks in a press conference during the unveiling of a new surface-to-surface 4th generation Khorramshahr ballistic missile called Khaibar in Tehran, Iran, May 25, 2023. (credit: WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS

"During a follow-up statement by Iran’s deputy defense minister for Logistics Mahdi Farhi, the official appeared to indicate this is a multi-stage missile, such that the warhead has its own guidance system and can reach high speeds and achieve greater accuracy. The official elaborated on claims that it is immune to electronic warfare, since it is not guided by satellites. He also elaborated on claims the warhead, that separates, has a low radar cross-section and that the missile can change direction during later stages of flight."

"Iran’s new test of a missile joins a long lineage of  testing and claims about new missiles. It frequently gives these missiles new names, even if they are very similar to previously known missiles, with some updates. Iran claims new abilities for these missiles, such as “pinpoint accuracy” and the ability to defeat air defenses." 

"Overall then, the new test of a missile should be seen in the context of Iran often claiming to test missiles with new capabilities during historic anniversaries and continuing to boast about them."

"Considering that Iran has exported missile technology to the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah; as well as sending actual missiles to Syria, Lebanon and Iraq; the missile threats must be taken seriously. The overall threat to countries like Israel is that these missiles have large warheads and may be part of the larger Iranian drive for weaponizing its nuclear program."

Seth J. Frantzman, Jerusalem Post 

So much for the nuclear talks that have taken years to negotiate off and on and which have accomplished precisely nothing. At no time during these negotiations between the US, EU and Tehran negotiators was there mention or allusion to rocketry meant to carry nuclear warheads. In the prolongation of the negotiations, Tehran essentially accomplished what it set out to do -- appear to take the concerns of the US and EU seriously, while earnestly negotiating in 'good faith', endlessly extending the talks and using the extended time to get on with its ballistic missile program.

 

At the very same time that it continued to enrich uranium much beyond its agreed-to limit, even while its experiments in the creation of nuclear fissile material and the production of nuclear heads to fit on the missiles commenced apace. Taking steps all the while to create deep underground bunkers to house its production laboratories at a depth that would be immune to surface bombing. Pre-emptive bombing that might conceivably be carried out by the very Middle East country that Tehran has stated time and again it has plans to annihilate with the use of nuclear bombs.

The latest iteration of its liquid-fuelled Khorramshahr ballistic missile at a time of ongoing, deep tensions with the West and certainly with Israel, and to a lesser degree the Sunni-Islamic countries it plans to dominate into submission with the threat of its attainment of the means to destroy them as well as Israel, is telling enough. The technologically advanced boasts themselves are a form of terrorism it employs to ensure its adversaries in the region are kept in check. Iran's recent detente with Saudi Arabia, its closest adversary next to Israel is no guarantee that the Saudi oilfields will not be attacked again by Iran's proxy Houthis in Yemen.

The Khorramshahr-4 was placed on proud display in Tehran, the missile on a truck-mounted launcher. A missile that Iran's defence minister assured those present, including journalists, that launch could be prepared within a short period. Poised and ready-to-go. The missile described with a 2,000-kilometre range, and a 1,500 kilogram warhead. Undated video footage was released which purportedly showed the missile during a successful launch.

Of Iran's ballistic missile fleet, the Khorramshahr possesses the heaviest payload which may have been designed to keep the weapon under a 2,000km range limit, some analysts feel. Placing most of the Mideast in its range, and falling just short of Western Europe. Named after an Iranian city where heavy fighting took place between Iran and Iraq in the 1980s, there is much symbolism in naming the missile Khorramshahr. Just as the missile, called Kheibar is heavily symbolically named in reference to the 7th century Jewish fortress that fell to Islamic conquest within an area where Saudi Arabia now sits.

 

In staging that is a continuum of symbolism, so heavily employed by Tehran, a miniature of Jerusalem's golden Dome of the Rock sitting on the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound which squats on a much earlier Judaic sacred site of the two iterations of the Temple of Solomon, the Temple Mount, was placed next to the mobile missile launcher.

 

Viewing Israel as its arch-enemy, Tehran has been actively and visibly inciting to violence the terrorist groups that are its proxies; Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad in Gaza, along with the Gaza-governing Hamas, all of whom were created for the express purpose of destroying the presence of a Jewish state on a geography that Islam conquered and where land sacrosanct to Islam theologically considers the presence of another religion forbidden. 

That the geography in question is historically linked to Judaism, and Israel is located on part of its ancestral homeland, is entirely irrelevant to fundamentalist Islamic states who regard the presence of a Jewish state to represent an assault on Islam itself. The inexhaustible supply of weaponry emanating from Iran to supply terrorist groups in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Gaza is an assurance that peace will not come easily to the region. 

It is a region, moreover, that has always been and likely always will be at war with itself. Without the presence of Israel in their midst, the tribal and sectarian violence that destroyed Lebanon and led to the deaths of a half-million Syrians would still fester and carry on. Groups like the Islamic State will always surface to create deadly chaos, creating bloodbaths between Muslims and victimizing minority religious and ethnic groups deprived of their human rights. 

The new Khorramshahr with its updated technology would be capable of reaching Israel from Iran. But then, when Iraq was invaded by a Western alliance after its sweep into and claim of Kuwait as Iraqi territory, missiles were sent by Saddam Hussein into Israel at that time, too. The uneasy tensions between Iran and Israel have mounted steadily of late, with Iran's threats of destroying Israel, giving the Jewish State good reason to destroy Iran's nuclear program before it has a chance to deploy.

 

A new surface-to-surface 4th generation Khorramshahr ballistic missile called Khaibar with a range of 2,000 km is launched at an undisclosed location in Iran, in this picture obtained on May 25, 2023.

(photo credit: IRANIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY/WANA/VIA REUTERS)

 

 

 

Messaging Authorities : Confused Yet?

"A pessimistic scenario: the Ukrainians are given missiles, they prepare troops, of course they will continue their offensive, try to counterattack."

"They will attack Crimea, they will try to blow up the Crimean bridge [to the Russian mainland], cut off [our] supply lines."

"Therefore, we need to prepare for a hard war."

"[Russia's invasion goal of] demilitarizing [Ukraine backfired since Kyiv's military is stronger with the supply of weapons and training by its western allies]."

"We are withdrawing units from Bakhmut today."

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin

Yevgeny Prigozhin speaks to Wagner soldiers in Bakhmut   Reuters

"We can see that the military command as well as the political establishments of the Russian Federation are not ready for this situation."

"They have invested billions in strengthening their line but when it comes to action, everything falls apart and nothing is working."

"I think you will see us again on that side [within Russian territory]."

"I cannot reveal those upcoming things, I cannot even reveal the direction. The … border is pretty long. Yet again there will be a spot where things will get hot."

Denis Kapustin, commander, Russian Volunteer Corps.

 

"We as an official state have nothing to do with these events [striking cross-border from Ukraine within Russia]."

"These are Russian citizens that are doing this as a means to express their attitude towards what is going on in Russia."

"This demonstrates to us that they are not ready for the challenges that are to come, not just in the Belgorod oblast but in any territorial unit of Russia [potential for further uprisings by Russian rebel groups.]"

"The capacity and strengths of the Russian chain of command will not be enough. The system has stopped working. The FSB [Federal Security Service] is supposed to be controlling the border. The question arises: where is the FSB?"

Oleksiy Danilov, secretary, Ukraine national security and defence council

According to the latest wildcat revelations of Russia's private army Wagner Group head, over 20,000 men had been killed in the drawn-out battle for Bakhmut, roughly half of whom were Russian convicts recruited to fight in the conflict. Moscow claims that just over 6,000 of its  troops were killed during the war. Official Soviet troop losses in the 1979-89 war in Afghanistan saw a total of 15,000 Russian servicemen losing their lives, as a point of contrast. 

According to analysts, tens of thousands of soldiers have been killed during the Bakhmut nine-month fight, among them Russian convicts who were reported to have received little training before they were sent to the front.  In an interview with Konstantin Dolgov, pro-Kremlin political strategist, Mr. Prigozhin stated Russian forces had killed civilians despite Moscow' vehement denials.

Earlier in the month a video of Prigozhin published by his media team featured him shouting, swearing claiming the 30 uniformed bodies on the ground around him were Wagner fighters all of whom died that very day. The Russian Defence Ministry, he said, had starved his men of ammunition. He threatened to leave the fight for Bakhmut. In Tuesday's interview he claimed it was possible that the anticipated counteroffensive given continued Western support could push Russian forces out of southern and eastern Ukraine along with annexed Crimea.

The following day the Ukrainian General Staff spoke of "heavy fighting" continuing within Bakhmut, days following Russia having said it had completely captured the devastated city in Donetsk province, one of four provinces annexed last fall by Russia.  It took another day and Moscow announced its forces had crushed a cross-border raid from Ukraine.

On the other hand, in Russia's southern Belgorod region, Russian forces claimed to have shot down "a large number" of drones following a day when Moscow had announced its forces had crushed a cross-border raid in the area, from Ukraine. According to the Belgorod Governor the drones were intercepted overnight and another shot down on Wednesday outside the local capital city Belgorod.

 

Wagner head warns of revolution unless elite gets serious about war – still from video

"This divide [social disparity underlined by the war, with the sons of the poor being sent back from the front in zinc coffins while the children of the elite 'shook their arses' in the sun] can end as in 1917 with a revolution."

"First the soldiers will stand up, and after that – their loved ones will rise up. There are already tens of thousands of them – relatives of those killed. And there will probably be hundreds of thousands – we cannot avoid that."

Wagner Group Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin

Grimly Alarming 'War Games'

Photo: AFP

"China’s DF-26, an anti-ship missile tested and 'demonstrated' by the People’s Liberation Army reportedly able to travel 2,000 miles to destroy carriers, does present a credible threat to be taken seriously. Yet much of the hype seems to leave out certain critical comments made by senior U.S. Navy leaders and various adaptations the modern Navy has made to respond to or 'counter' China’s often-discussed A2/AD (anti-access/area denial) strategy."

"With a range of up to 2,500 miles and 4,000-pound payload, with satellite targeting the DF-26 in theory could strike U.S. Navy warships across the western Pacific Ocean. 'Even when launched from deeper inland areas of China, the DF-26 has a range far-reaching enough to cover the South China Sea', an unnamed military expert told Global Times in a report several years ago."

"However, upon closer examination and careful reading of public comments from senior Navy officials, there certainly seems to be room for debate on this question. While certainly nobody questions the seriousness of a threat of this kind, and clearly the Chinese weapons are taken seriously, yet some of the threat language might accurately be assessed as 'hype' given the steady stream of ongoing advances in layered Carrier and Carrier Strike Group defenses."

Kris Osborn, Military Affairs Editor, 19FortyFive, President, Warrior Maven – Center for Military Modernization

DF-26

According to boasts by Chinese scientists, the new hypersonic weapons China possesses could destroy the newest aircraft carrier in the American Navy. A research team on a war game software platform that China's military uses, indicated Chinese forces sinking the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier fleet with a volley of 24 hypersonic anti-ship missiles. A report in the South China Morning Post claimed the results of the hypersonic strikes, made public for the first time in a May paper published by the Chinese-language Journal of Test and Management Technology. 

Computer-generated battle scenarios are often used by military planners to game out strategies. However, they cannot be overly relied upon in real-life conflict where terrain, weather and other unforeseen factors are capable of disrupting weaponry, warn experts in the field. The strategic scenario used a platform of an attack on American vessels that had steamed toward an island claimed in the disputed South China Sea by China.

Some of the missiles in the three-wave attack, according to researchers, were fired from as far distant as the Gobi Desert. The entire play relies on a diplomatic confrontation over the waterway and its rich resources that has escalated for years in a landscape of overlapping territorial claims between regional nations and an increasingly aggressive Beijing.

With China determined to extend its reach by claiming and militarizing islands, reefs and rocks, the United States Navy has accelerated its own 'freedom of navigation' patrols in universally recognized international waters that Beijing claims as its own. China has been developing its missile arsenal rapidly, including hypersonic technology, as a reflection of its focus on building its naval capabilities.

The Chinese military had three days earlier tested a new hypersonic intermediate-range ballistic missile named the DF-27, according to a leak of a top-secret report, by the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff intelligence directorate, several months back. The DF-27, according to the document, possessed a high probability of capacity to evade U.S. ballistic missile defence, designed to boost Beijing's ability to strike large parts of the Pacific. That would include the U.S. territory of Guam, and its strategic military base.

China last year deployed versions of the new missile capable of attacking land targets and ships. Also revealed was that the DF-27 has increased potential as a "carrier killer" vastly out-performing its predecessors. Researchers from the North University of China in the latest war game, concluded that almost every U.S. surface vessel was shattered by the hypersonic attack and sank eventually.

USS Gerald R. Ford Aircraft Carrier (Photo by Matt Cardy/Getty Images)

Trudeau, the Smugly 'Progressive' Feminist World Leader

"Canada is concerned about some of the positions Italy is taking in terms of LGBT rights."

"[There will be an opportunity to speaking further together about this and] other democratic principles that the world needs."

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau at Hiroshima Group of 7 Summit

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, French President Emmanuel Macron and Prime Minister Justin Trudeau take part in a working lunch session at the G7 Leaders' Summit in Hiroshima, Japan, on Friday, May 19, 2023. Photo by Ludovic Marin /Pool via Getty Images

Once again Justin Trudeau, coasting on his vision of himself as charismatic world leader embarrasses Canada. He is not himself embarrassed. Nothing can embarrass the man with a hide as thick as an elephant's. It isn't hard to bring to memory Trudeau's trip to China in anticipation of signing a much vaunted free trade deal, during which time he lectured Beijing's government elite on women's rights, and ultimately returned to Canada no trade deal signed for him to hoist in pride and prejudice.

Or when re-negotiating the NAFTA agreement between Mexico, Canada and the United States, exhorting the other two countries to include a feminist agenda into the trade agreement. Priding the level of his mantle of 'feminist' extraordinaire, he used that gambit in other trade agreements, much to the consternation of those involved. Canadians have reached the point where they have reason to believe that other world leaders now have a tendency to shrink back lest they be contaminated when this man is around.

Justin Trudeau is fairly universally being criticized for his "repugnant" behaviour in lecturing his Italian counterpart, Italy's Giorgia Meloni on democratic values and virtues at the G7 meeting in Hiroshima last week. In fact, her incredulous body language and facial expressions spoke volumes even before she finally expressed a restrained opinion that Trudeau was 'misinformed' when he lectured her. Yet his brazen verbal assault in front of television cameras harmed not her, but her interlocutor.

 

The Saturday front page of the Milan Libero newspaper. Libero

 Italian media had a field day feasting on the rank hypocrisy of a man whose actions go a long way to speaking more raucously and honestly than his words. While PM Giorgia Meloni generously withheld condemnation of the irritatingly irrational lecture she was lashed with, she informed reporters that her Canadian counterpart was a "victim" of "fake news"; a response whose restraint is admirable. Trudeau, she went on was a "bit rash" in failing to understand that she has not changed existing legislation on LGBTQ issues in Italy.

Her own personal opinion is that every child deserves to be raised by a mother and a father. In fact, medical science appears to support just that; the vital importance in a child's life of a father and a mother. Aside from that Ms. Meloni was in defence of her government's position, following court rulings with respect to matters concerning LGBTQ issues. The Libero newspaper based in Milan displayed a photo of Trudeau in blackface on its front page, the headline reading "This buffoon wants to teach us lessons". 

Host Rita Panahi of Sky News Australia commented on Ms. Meloni's grimace under pain of lecture by Trudeau as that it "really sums up what all of us think of the repugnant, incompetent Trudeau". Perhaps Ms. Panahi is aware that many Canadians echo that sentiment of their prime minister's incompetent, arrogant behaviour. Strident environmentalist that he is, his constant jetting around the world and across the second-largest country of the world belies his dedication to saving the world in the finer interests of exposing the world at large to the sterling presence of an admirable world leader.

It is, of course, Italy's business alone that their government has informed city councils in Italy to put an end to officially recording both parents in same sex couples and to limit the records of parentage to biological parents, a move that has displeased gay rights groups where same-sex parents are unrecognized by Italian law. Italian Prime Minister Meloni might have lectured her Canadian counterpart on his country's euthenasia laws.

Where Medical Assistance in Dying (MAID), offers end-of-life services to those who live with excruciating pain, and whose illness is swiftly concluding their life's trajectory, preparing to extend state sanctioned euthanasia to the mentally incapable, to the homeless who no longer wish to live in poverty, and to children suffering mental and physical distress, pain, and incurably debilitating illnesses. Italy has no such euthanasia laws, where they are strictly forbidden.

 

Russian Insurrectionists

"From the first day of the war, my heart, the heart of a real Russian man, a real Christian, told me that I had to be here to defend the people of Ukraine."

"It was a very difficult process[joining the Ukrainian effort]. It took me several months to finally join the ranks of the defenders of Ukraine."

Pseudonym "Caesar"

 

"We can confirm that this operation is carried out by Russian citizens."

In Ukraine these units are part of defense and security forces. In Russia they are acting as independent entities."

Andriy Yusov, Ukrainian Defense Intelligence representative

"[Those responsible for the cross border-raid in Belgorod are Russians who want to get rid of] the darkness [in their country; there is not any involvement from Kyiv]."

"They are Russians, it is their country and they have the right to be there."

"There are some Russians who are on the side of the light and who went to deal with the darkness that exists in Russia now."

Ukrainian National Security Advisor Oleksiy Danilov

Smoke seen over the Belgorod region following the reported attack

"Ukraine is watching the events in the Belgorod region of Russia with interest and studying the situation, but it has nothing to do with it."

"As you know, tanks are sold at any Russian military store, and underground guerrilla groups are composed of Russian citizens."

Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to Volodymyr Zelenskyy

 

"The big question is was Ukraine in any way behind it, and if they weren't behind it, did they know about it."

"Or was it as much a surprise to them as it was to the Kremlin?"

"I think the Zelenskyy government is too clever to do this." 

"[In one way it's similar to the drone attack on Moscow - 'it's humiliating'."

"On the other hand they kind of get the benefit of saying look this is how we are under attack by the Ukrainians and they want to destroy Russia."

Defence expert, professor Michael Clarke

Still from a video of a helicopter seen releasing flares

And of course Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has no wish at all to embarrass Moscow, much less his arch-enemy Vladimir Putin. And nor would he intentionally, and too obviously seek to annoy his international supporters supporting him with weaponry in his country's existential defence against the Russian military invading his country, destroying its cities, killing its civilian population by the thousands and its servicemen by the tens of thousands. The U.S. warned him against mounting incursions into Russian territory, not to use long-range missiles to strike within Russia, thus risking 'escalation' and a wider war.

So, no, of course Ukrainian forces refrain from crossing the border, wouldn't think of attacking Russian border towns, and certainly would never be so bold as to strike the heart of Russia in Moscow itself. The Kremlin? Unthinkable! The fact is, the Russian full-scale invasion is a military travesty, the Putin dictatorship an intolerable blemish on international standards of sovereignty, and the brutishness of the ongoing attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine constituting war crimes an offence against humanity.

Ukrainian forces, any time they feel they have the initiative must restrain themselves, objectively respecting Russia's sovereign territory despite Russia having claimed Crimea and the Donbas as Russian territory in its expansionist Soviet-style power structure renascent. However, if there are dissident Russian groups willing and able to mount their own opposition to their country's leadership they must do so without Ukraine's intervention, encouragement, assistance. 

And reports of Russian volunteers conducting combat operations driving tanks and armoured vehicles into Russia, in the process "capturing" villages and declaring a new republic, Ukraine can cheer them on but remain detached. The incident is not to be described as Ukraine-backed forces bringing the war to Russian soil; these are Russians declaring their opposition to Russian leadership carried out by anti-Kremlin fighters from the Russian Freedom Legion and Russian Volunteer Corps, both claiming links to Kyiv's foreign fighters.

According to initial reports out of Ukraine's military intelligence, the two battalions of volunteers crossed into the Belgorod region to "create a security zone" meant to protect Ukrainian civilians from Russian attacks. Confusing, unnecessarily complex and contradictory? War is like that. On the part of Russia, officials laid claim of the "Ukrainian forces" capturing four frontier settlements amidst reports of heavy area fighting. Social media footage showed a tank and multiple armoured vehicles with Ukrainian tactical markings approaching the Grayvoron border-control post, damaged at an earlier point by shelling.

Ukrainian social-media sources showed an image of three soldiers declaring a new "Belgorod's People's Republic". Rivalling in reverse and mocking the Donetsk Peoples Republic and the Luhansk Peoples Republic in the Donbas. The Russian Volunteer Corps called on Russian frontier region residents to remain at home and "not to resist". While the Russian Freedom Legion called on Russians to rise up and defeat Vladimir Putin: "The time has come to put an end to the Kremlin dictatorship. Be brave and have no fear because we are coming home."

"We perfectly understand the point of such acts of sabotage -- to divert attention from the Bakhmut front line."

"Work is underway to push out Ukrainian saboteurs from Russian territory and destroy the sabotage group."

"There are enough resources and manpower on the ground."

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov

 

"Russian nations, the [RFL and RDK] have claimed responsibility for those actions."

"I think we can only welcome those decisive steps by opposition-minded Russians who have taken up arms to fight the criminal regime of Vladimir Putin that has usurped power in Russia."

Andriy Yusov, spokesman, Ukraine military intelligence 

For the time being, the Belgorod effort has been put on hold. Russia's response in meeting the raid with deadly force, according to the Russian media, was the death of 70 of those calling themselves Russian patriots, whom Moscow might have described as traitors, insurrectionists, Ukraine lap-dogs. The towns of Kozinka, Glotove and Gora-Odul, sized by the raiding forces are now back in Russian military hands. But the Russian government of President Vladimir Putin appears to be crumbling. Not soon enough, not fast enough.

A still image shows a flying object exploding in an intense burst of light near the dome of the Kremlin Senate building earlier this month.   Ostorozhno Novosti/Reuters

 

 

Unintended Consequences

"At 11:42 a.m. local time on May 3rd, U.S. Central Command forces conducted a unilateral strike in Northwest Syria targeting a senior Al Qaeda leader."

CENTCOM

 

'Senior leader' of Al-Qaeda-linked group killed in US strike   Middle East Monitor

 

"Centcom takes all such allegations seriously and is investigating to determine whether or not the action may have unintentionally resulted in harm to civilians."

Michael Lawhorn, spokesman, Central Command

Military officials in the United States are now investigating a recent strike in Syria that senior officials initially claimed killed a high-ranking al-Qaeda fighter. The man who was killed by the Central Command strike was a 56-yar-old farmer, struck by a killer drone on May 3. A man whom family and other villagers identify as a father of ten who had been tending his sheep when an American missile hit and killed him. Lotfi Hasa Misso, a former bricklayer, lived in Qorqanya, Syria, described as hard-working whose "whole life was spent poor".

Hours after the strike the operation, overseen by US. Central Command, claimed a Predator drone strike targeted a "senior al-Qaeda leader". The brother of the dead man immediately contacted the famed White Helmets who arrived on scene to find a dead man and animals that had also been struck. Doubts were raised and communicated to the Pentagon. "We are no longer confident we killed a senior AQ official", said one official. Another clarified on the condition of anonymity that "though we believe the strike did not kill the original target, we believe the person to be al-Qaeda."

 

Mohammed Hassan Masto sits next to the grave of his brother Lutfi, who was killed on Wednesday, May 3, in a U.S. military strike, in the village of Qorqanya, a rural area in northern Idlib province, Syria, Sunday, May 7, 2023

 

Following the attack American military authorities refused to identify who their target was, much less how the targeting error occurred or even whether a legitimate terrorist leader had escaped. Some of the U.S. military authorities continue to insist that a 'senior leader' of an Al-Qaeda-linked group was killed in the and that the dead farmer, despite the family's and villagers' denials was indeed a member of al-Qaeda.

 

When such unintended consequences take place, as they have in the past, the Pentagon tends to expand investigations in light of sufficient credible evidence of harm to civilians emerging. In this case questions have been raised whether the information that had been used in the authorization of the attack can even be justified. 

 

The Biden administration last year insisted it would take steps to reduce such risks to civilians, promising greater transparency when unintended deaths occur. The U.S. military had covered up past instances of errant airstrikes inadvertently killing innocent people. Media outlet investigations revealed flawed intelligence and "confirmation bias" led to disaster. A 2021 strike during the U.S. evacuation of Afghans under emerging Taliban rule had officially been described as targeting a suicide bomber, but had killed ten Afghan civilians, seven children among them. 

The Washington Post broke the story after having given four terrorism experts details about Lotfi Hassan Misto, and where he lived, asking them to survey online discussions among jihadists following the strike for comments on the Qorqanya attack. The result was no references indicating Misto to be affiliated with a terrorist group; each of the consultants remarking it would be unusual for a senior leader in al-Qaeda to operate near the area, controlled by a rival group.

The Post shared coordinates of where the drone strike occurred -- near Misto's home and chicken farm. One U.S. defence official said the location is close to a "known area of interest" to al-Qaeda contradicting Misto's neighbours who say that no terrorists live or operate near Misto's home. Obtaining images of Misto's face before and after death, the Post provided them to Central Command where officials have not responded whether they believe he is the man killed in the strike.

Father-of-ten Lotfi Hassan Misto, 56, who has been identified by his family as the man killed in the strike on May 3. They say was a former bricklayer who lived in the quiet northern town of Qorqanya, according to the Washington Post