Russian Campaign of Disruption in Britain

"[The case was a clear example of an organization linked to the Russian state  using 'proxies', in this case British men, to carry out very serious criminal activity in this country."

"[Earl and Reeves willingly acted as hostile agents on behalf of the Russian state."

"[It was] only by good fortune nobody was seriously injured or worse."

Cmdr. Dominic Murphy, head, Counter Terrorism Command, London Metropolitan Police

 

"Another proxy group acting for Russia has been brought to justice, thanks to the work of our criminal justice system."

"National security is the foundation of our plan for change, and these convictions should serve as a clear warning to those seeking to undermine our national security or the safety of the UK."

"Those acting on Russia’s behalf will be met by the full force of the law."

 U.K. Security Minister, Dan Jarvis

An east London warehouse where generators and satellite communication equipment bound for Ukraine was set on fire in March 2024. British prosecutors have linked the arson attack to the Wagner Group.

 

Three men have been convicted by a British jury on charges of arson stemming from an attack on a warehouse storing equipment meant to be forwarded and supplied to Ukraine. According to British authorities, Russian intelligence organized the plot. Planned by agents of Russia's Wagner mercenary group, on behalf of Russian military intelligence. Wagner is listed in Britain as a terrorist organization.

 

Wagner made use of British intermediaries for its recruitment purposes, to target an industrial unit in Leyton, east London. At the warehouse, generators and StarLink satellite equipment destined for Ukraine were being kept in storage. Ukraine's military frequently use StarLinks in fending off Russia's ('special military operation) invasion.

CCTV footage released by the London Metropolitan Police showed the lead-up to the attack

 

A campaign of disruption was organized by the Wagner group, and the arson attack was a part of that campaign. Jakeem Rose, 23, Ugnius Asmena, 20, and Nii Mensah, 23 were found guilty of aggravated arson, by the jury at London's Central Criminal Court. A fourth man, Paul English, 61, was acquitted of charges, informing police that although he had been paid to drive the other men, he had not been informed what their mission comprised.

 

Damage of approximately 1 million pounds was caused by the fire ($1.85 million). The attack had been orchestrated by Dylon Earl, 21, and Jake Reeves 23, both of whom pleaded guilty to aggravated arson, acting on behalf of the Wagner Group prior to the beginning of the trial. The two men pleaded guilty as well, to offences under the U.K.'s National Security Act 2023.

 

Evgeny Chickvarkin, owner of a wine shop and restaurant in the upmarket London neighbourhood of Mayfair, is an exiled Russian tycoon whom Dylon Earl admitted he planned to kidnap, while plotting to set fire to the Russian tycoon's business. The court was in possession of a written statement by Chichvarkin that attested to the fact he is considered "a key enemy of the Russian state and received daily death threats".

 

Another two men were on trial, connected to the arson and related plots. 20-year-old Ashton Evens was found guilty of failing to disclose information about terrorist acts relating to the Mayfair plot. He was cleared of failing to inform authorities of the warehouse arson, however. And 23-year-old Dmitrijus Paulauskas, was cleared of both charges.  

 

Damage caused by a fire at an industrial unit in Leyton. Photo: London Fire Brigade

 

 

Russia's Africa Corps

"The usage of plausible deniability is now replaced by managed visibility."

"The transfer of Wagner assets in Mali to Africa Corps, which is a state co-ordinated mechanism of influence is more than symbolic, as it demonstrates a strategic transition from proxy to a power chain operated by the government."

"It is not unlikely to expect that the Africa Corps could present a more professional approach, but the operational playbook of including violence will remain intact."

"The brutal counter-insurgency tactics, such as massacres and collective punishment, are structural, not just personal." 

Security researcher Nicholas Chkhaidze, Tbilisi 

 

"The Kremlin will continue to provide direct support to Africa Corps, they'll continue sending in shipments of equipment and weapons."

"We'll see a steady pace of violence by the al-Qaida group in resistance to the involvement of Russia."

Beverly Ochieng, Africa analyst, Center for Strategic and International Studies 

The Russia-backed Wagner Group says it is leaving Mali after more than three and a half years of fighting Islamic extremists and insurgents in the country   ABC News

 

"Africa Corps is a Russian military company that was created in early 2024 as a replacement for the Wagner Group. This organization reflects Russia’s desire to extend its military influence on the African continent and to provide legitimacy to its official and public presence in the face of the European and American presence. Africa Corps is deployed in 5 countries: Libya, Burkina Faso, Mali, Central African Republic and Niger. Libya represents the core of the corps due to the previous activity of Wagner elements in the city of Tripoli…. Another factor in the choice of Libya as the headquarters of this corps is its strategic geographical location due to its connection with the Mediterranean coast, which ensures military supply lines and movement of corps members to other countries The Africa Corps’ modus operandi is entirely dependent on providing military support to African countries such as instructors and weapons. The company also is concerns with the development of strategies in cooperation with the Ministry of Defense, such as is the case in Mali and Niger… In short, the Africa Corps represents the new incarnation of Russian military influence in Africa."

Foreign Military Studies Office -- U.S. Army, Training and Doctrine Command

 

Russian Deputy Defence Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov (left) is heading the newly formed Africa Corps, which under his leadership is set to become a key entity through which the Russian state will project power in West Africa.

 

Russia now is openly expanding its military footprint in Africa with the rise of a paramilitary force controlled by the Kremlin. The Africa Corps force is purposefully being used by Russia to increase influence in francophone West Africa, as France's colonialist interests are waning. The Russian defence ministry, operating Africa Corps, is filling the gap left by mercenary group Wagner, founded by the late Yevgeny Prigozhin, after it announced its departure from Mali. 

 

Expanding its presence as Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger led by juntas after coups between 2020 and 2023, have turned from France and moved closer to Russia. Dmitry Peskov speaking for the Kremlin, explained Moscow's intent to develop comprehensive cooperation with African countries: "This cooperation also extends to such sensitive areas as defence and security", he expanded.

 

Despite the shift, analysts have no expectation that the Russian paramilitary groups mean to change its tactics of human rights violations. Half of Africa Corps' personnel are Wagner veterans, prioritizing those who had fought in Ukraine, consisting mostly of former convicts. In its three years in Mali, Wagner kidnapped, detained and tortured hundreds of civilians. Victims spoke of waterboarding, beatings with electrical cables, and being burned with cigarette butts.

 

"In the eyes of the population, this is merely a name change with no positive developments in one of the worst security situations in ten years", stated Bakary Sambe, executive director, Timbuktu Institute think tank in Dakar. For Malians, the distinction between the two Russian paramilitary groups was superficial.

 

"The handover to Africa Corps means that Russia is comfortable having a ministry of defence asset openly operating there", remarked Christopher Faulkner of the U.S. Naval War College. The Central African Republic is the "last bastion" of Wagner operations in Africa, according to the Institute for the Study of War. And there too, the Russian defence ministry plans to replace Wagner with Africa Corps. 

 

Posters across Bangui are reminiscent of old Soviet propaganda. The posters read: “Central African Republic is hand in hand with Russia” and “talk a little, work a lot.” - Credit: Sebastian Shukla/CNN

"[The shift to more overt Russian state presence in Africa could lead to] myriad domestic and geopolitical risks for the Kremlin." 

"The risk to Russian prestige may lead Russia to get more deeply entrenched in long-term conflicts to 'save face', which would ensnare the Kremlin in its own series of 'forever wars'."

"Wagner was more immune to such long-term entanglements and even abruptly withdrew from places, such as Mozambique, when the benefits outweighed their costs."

Institute for the Study of War 

Mining The Mercenaries

"I told him: 'Yevgeny, do you understand that you will doom your people and will perish yourself?'"

" He had just come back from the front. On an impulse he said: 'I will die then, damn it!'" 

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko  

"[If a surface-to-air missile hit the plane], you would see that sort of vapour trail in the final stages of its approach."

"Therefore, either that could be an explosion, or it could be a surface-to-air missile system. This is almost certainly not smoke [and is probably] fuel venting. It's a large quantity, that is a massive damage to the aircraft that's caused that."

"Now, you put all of that together... there's lots of reasons why that might have occurred, but that is not a natural accident."

"[Footage of the plane closer to the ground appears to show it without its wing or its tailplane, which could explain why it came down] vertically, not unlike a falling leaf."

"[Other pictures from the crash site show the tailplane] some distance [from the main part of the aircraft]. That is a catastrophe that's happened in the air... there were rumours that a case of wine [containing a bomb] was put on the aircraft at the last minute."

"The trouble with that theory is that generally speaking, [an explosion] inside an aircraft blows it out... whereas a surface-to-air missile system or an air-to-air missile system generally tries to seek out the juiciest, meatiest part of an aircraft."

"That would explain why it potentially could rip a wing off. And as soon as it did that, the fate of the aircraft was sealed."

Military analyst, former pilot Sean Bell 

 

The Kremlin has rejected allegations of its involvement in the plane crash that killed mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. They have also announced discovery of the black box, to aid in the investigation of the crash. An investigation that will thoroughly examine the cause of the crash which will most certainly negate all the unfounded rumours circulating wildly both within Russia among the many admirers of the former Wagner boss, and abroad in elite intelligence services.

Prigozhin and his dedicated fighting men, feared for their military skills and brutality in Ukraine, Africa and Syria was honoured by a eulogy delivered by his old friend Vladimir Putin a day after the plane carrying him and six other members of the Wagner executive team crashed mysteriously soon after takeoff from Moscow, in a routine flight en route to St.Petersburg. 

 According to a preliminary American intelligence assessment the plane crashed as a result of an intentional explosion. It was determined that Yevgeny Prigozhin was "very likely" the target of the crash that resulted in the death of the three air crew and high-ranking Wagner members. The clumsiness and obvious conclusion held by many that the bloodless 'punishment'-driven Putin agenda was responsible for the drama that wiped out yet another Putin-authority critic is not untypical of the Russian leader's modus operandi.

The mission succeeded in removing another irritation, an erstwhile friend and supporter who had become tediously irrepressible in his aggravating claims and behaviour. An event whose success and purpose lay in delivering a message to any others who might harbour thoughts of challenging the primacy of President Putin and his decision-making on such issues as 'special military operations' that have so far proven inadequate to his goal of tucking Ukraine securely under his wing again as a Russian appendage.

"Right now, of course, there are lots of speculations around this plane crash and the tragic deaths of the passengers of the plane, including Yevgeny Prigozhin. Of course, in the West those speculations are put out under a certain angle, and all of it is a complete lie."

"He [Vladimir Putin] said that right now all the necessary forensic analyses, including genetic testing, will be carried out. Once some kind of official conclusions are ready to be released, they will be released."

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov

According to Britain's Defence Ministry, the death of Prigozhin could serve to destabilize the Wagner Group. His "exceptional audacity" and "extreme brutality" permeated the organization "and are unlikely to be matched by any successor", they concluded. The fighting group's reputation and success in the battlefield is one that President Putin would like to harness and bring tightly under  his control, as part of the Russian military, as a national fighting force.

There was an earlier call from the Russian military elite for the Wagner militias to surrender their weapons to the military and allow themselves to be enrolled as a regular part of the military, though with their special skills and personal thuggery intact they could be deployed as special-events units to be mobilized when the need for ruthless deadly action was to be deployed. 

 

This was a recommendation by the Russian military which Mr. Prigozhin took exception to, and outright refused. On that occasion, the Russian President sided with the military, no doubt for the first time abandoning Prigozhin's confidence, which eventually led to his insubordination. Now, Prigozhin gone, Mr. Putin has signed a decree making it mandatory for the mercenaries to swear an oath of allegiance to the Russian State - to Putin.

"It is a concealed message to military intelligence to find and prosecute Wagner fighters."

"[And a clear message to the fighters]: Either take the oath and keep your arms or disarm yourself."

"You obey or you go to prison."

"They chose Wagner because Wagner gave them special treatment, without the bureaucracy of the huge Russian army. If they get special treatment under Putin's orders, I don't think they care about where, to whom and for whom they will fight."

 Petro Burkovskyi, head, Democratic Initiatives Foundation, Ukraine think tank

The Man  Reuters

 

And The Mystery Perpetrator?

"Putin has been suspected of murdering people since 2000."

"After the arrest of [exiled tycoon Mikhail] Khordokovksy, the assassination of [ex-FSB officer Alexander] Litvinenko, the use of Novichok against [double agent] Sergei Skripal — only idiots would think that they're safe. [The taking down of a private jet will bring the Russian elite even closer to heel]."

"They have nowhere to go. They're terribly afraid for their own lives, their families, fortunes, and so on."

Kirill Shamiev, political scientist, visiting fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations

If any event was predictable, this was, given the astonishing number of Russians falling out of favour with Russian President Vladimir Putin; those who criticize him, those uncertain whether he is worthy of their loyalty, those who look elsewhere for the authority they can believe in and retain their self-respect. Businessmen, oligarchs, heads of government institutions, academics, opposition politicians, critical journalists, erstwhile friends and supporters have been given ample rewards for straying from the fold. 'Suicides', sharpshooter-headshots, poisoning, strangulation, hanging, falling out of windows, all and any methods of assigning penalties of a final nature to the deserving.

 

Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin. Lev Borodin / TASS

"Multiple individuals have changed their name to Yevgeniy Prigozhin, as part of his efforts to obfuscate his travels."

"Let's not be surprised if he pops up shortly in a new video from Africa."

Keir Giles, Russia expert, Chatham House think-tank

"Of course it's Putin."

"Putin as a leaddr cannot afford to be humiliated in the way that he was. Putin functions on two things: Loyalty above talent ... and the consequences of betrayal."

"The FSB remains loyal to Putin."

Unnamed Russian interior intelligence source

"[News of Prigozhin's death was] unsurprising."

"Most people will jump to the conclusion that this isn't an accident."

Sir Richard Dearlove, former head, MI-6, Britain

Ukrainska Pravda

 

Russian mercenary leader of the Wagner Group, the most 'successful' fighting force out of Russia, with its international presence in African war scenes and it's more recent militia action in Ukraine including its very public incendiary disagreements with the leaders of the Russian military is no more. That was a forgone conclusion from the moment back in June when he suddenly brought  his troops back over the border into Russia to begin a march on the Kremlin, determined for a showdown with the Russian military elite.

 

The founder of the private military company known as Wagner -- a longtime personal friend of President Vladimir Putin who admitted in the tense days of the approach of the militia to Moscow that he had orchestrated the funding through state funds of the group -- stated that his complaints of military ineptitude in the prosecution of the war against Ukraine, and the criminal neglect of support at critical times of his group by the military that withheld badly needed weaponry was never against his friend Putin.

Ostorozhno Novosti/via REUTERS

Footage of the crash site of a plane linked to Wagner Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, near Kuzhenkino, Tver region, Russia, August 23, 2023 

 

But of course, it was Vladimir Putin's dirty little war, and his decisions and orders that were being played out in Ukraine, and any criticism of his elite military commanders implicated the president fundamentally. So that betrayal of Putin's trust in the frangible psyche of a man given to urgent outbursts and irrational decision-making was unforgivable, consequences outstanding and just biding time. That Prigozhin was given leeway to absent himself to Belarus from whence he could have decamped to safety, yet chose instead to return to Russia bespeaks an astonishing lack of awareness.

That brief, surprising, embarrassing armed rebellion spelled the instigator's death knell, and he was a dead man walking for months while those around him wondered when and how the issue would play out, knowing it was inevitable, while he remained seemingly oblivious. Until a plane carrying three pilots and seven passengers en route from Moscow to St.Petersburg mysteriously corkscrewed out of the sky missing a wing. 

A succession of events, one the dismissal of the Russian General who was head of the Russian Airforce, a colleague of Prigozhin's and possibly a co-conspirator as well, unable to deflect suspicion which led to his disappearance from public view. His penalty is not yet finalized, but 300 kilometres distant from Moscow the crash that killed all aboard spelled the final chapter in the Wagner Group chief's story. Russia's civil aviation regulator reported his name on the manifest, and in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine, Wagner commanders confirmed their chief had been aboard the plane along with his top associate, Dmitry Utkin. 

"We have seen the reports. If confirmed, no one should be surprised", commented Adrienne Watson, U.S. National Security Council spokeswoman. The Associated Press flight tracking data indicated a private jet previously used by Prigozhin took off from Moscow Wednesday evening and minutes later its transponder signal went silent while the plane was at altitude and travelling at speed. An image posted by a social media account linked to Wagner showed burning wreckage, a partial tail number identifying the jet.

 

Wreckage at the crash site of the Embraer Legacy jet. Russian Investigative Committee

Other videos shared by the pro-Wagner Telegram channel Grey Zone show a plane dropping from a large cloud of smoke, wildly twisting as it falls. A frame-by-frame analysis by the Associated Press of two videos are consistent with an explosion of some kind in mid-flight. The images also indicate a missing wing on the plane. The Russian investigation is in good hands; Russia's Investigative Committee is investigating the crash on the charges of 'violation of air safety rules'.

British security sources on the other hand, believe the private jet had been shot down by the FSB intelligence agency, Vladimir Putin's old Alma Mater -- and, of course on orders of President Putin. "All the mood music, all the habits, all the history point to the FSB", commented one Russian inside source. Just incidentally this very week Prigozhin had posted his first recruitment video since the mutiny, that Wagner is conducting reconnaissance and search activities, "Making Russia even greater on all continents, and Africa even more free".

"[Prigozhin was a] talented businessman [who had significant achievements in his professional life]."

"He was a man with a difficult fate. He made some serious mistakes in his life."

"… He achieved the needed results both for himself and for a joint effort that I had asked him about during the last months [Prigozhin’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the capture of the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut earlier this year]."

Russian President Vladimir Putin

Putin at the celebration of Soviet victory in the Battle of Kursk, shortly after Prigozhin's plane crashed. Gavriil Grigorov / TASS

The Truth Shall Set You Free

President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, in a photo released by Russian state media, addresses military units at the Kremlin following the Wagner group rebellion.Credit...Sergei Guneyev/Sputnik, via Associated Press

"[The president also] listened to the explanations of the commanders and offered them options for further employment and further use in combat."

"The commanders themselves presented their version of what happened. They underscored that they are staunch supporters and soldiers of the head of state and the commander-in-chief, and also said that they are ready to continue to fight for their homeland."

Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov

"When you look from the point of view of Russian elite, it's ridiculous."

"It's just so unbelievable and just so shocking."

Tatiana Stanovaya, senior fellow, Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center

"[The delicate dance with Prigozhin is] a further compromise on Putin’s part and reflects his unwillingness to take tough and ruthless personnel decisions."

"He is willing to see Ukrainians bombed by the dozen, but not confront any of the figures in his own circle."

Mark Galeotti, head, consulting firm Mayak Intelligence

 

Hard to say what was more spontaneously contrived, Prigozhin's march on Moscow, or Vladimir Putin's concessionary assurances that all is well and under control. Forgive and set aside the forget part, at least for the moment. Mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin's rehearsed dedication of the Wagner group's loyalty to President Putin, aside and apart from his hostile resentment of Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and General Gerasimov against whom he's been railing for months demanding their dismissal, has been accepted at face value. Mr. Putin's patronage of Prigozhin's private army so helpful in Ukraine guarantees no reprisals against Prigozhin -- for the time being.

 

A swift, but hardly damage-alleviating solution to an inconvenient contretemps on the part of two old colleagues. A rebellion, short in life, as the culmination of a long-drawn-out tantrum, put to rest in the greater interests of cooperative collegiality. At the three-hour June 29 meeting, hard on the heels of the pullback from Moscow by the Wagner convoy which had shot down and killed a number of Russian air fleet servicemen, trust and comradeship was restored.

 

Members of the Wagner private army guard an area as one of them helps to load a tank onto a truck in Rostov-on-Don, Russia, on Saturday, June 24. (Vasily Deryugin, Kommersant Publishing House/The Associated Press)

 

President Putin delivered his assessment of the Wagner actions on the Ukraine battlefield, summing up the successes and failures of the mercenaries fighting alongside regular Russian troops. And addressed the apprehended revolt. The magnanimous tone setting the stage for loyalty earnestly pledged to Putin by the Wagner forces. The world knows this because Dmitry Peskov has revealed it to be so. The Kremlin under its Czar is firmly in control.

A mere temporary aberration, branding Prigozhin a traitor, vowing harsh punishment in retribution. Criminal case, what criminal case? Negotiations remain, behind closed doors. Russia's Defence Ministry published a video which featured military chief General Valery Gerasimov, one of the rebellion targets, the first time the general has been seen since the fizzled revolt. Some observers, predicted Tatiana Stanovaya, would be stunned by this truly peculiar turn of events.

The hands-off pretence favoured by Vladimir Putin of an absent link between the Russian state and Prigozhin's forces out of the cold and into the fold. That mercenaries are illegal in Russia belies the fact that Wagner has fought for Russian interests globally, its role vital in Bakhmut's capture in the longest and bloodiest battle of the Ukrainian invasion.Wagner does bestially brutal in fine style. The Russian military resented playing catch-up.

And how has that 'special military operation' been proceeding? It's been a costly venture for Russia. According to the first independent statistical analysis of Russia's war dead, close to 50,000 Russian men have been killed during the prosecution of the conflict. Relying on a statistical concept and drawing on inheritance records and offical mortality data, Russian media outlets Mediazona and Meduza along with a data scientist from Germany's Tubingen University used data from the Russian government itself to highlight one of Moscow's closest secrets; the human cost of the Ukrainian invasion.

Officially, Russia has acknowledged deaths of just over 6,000 of its soldiers. Moscow routinely -- and Kyiv as well -- is close-mouthed about its dead. Documenting the numbers of dead is recognized as an act of defiance; to illuminate the truth is to invite harassment and potential criminal charges in Russia. The BBC's Russian Service working alongside a network of volunteers made use of social media postings across Russia for a database to be built of confirmed war deaths. The truth will not be denied.

 

Stanislav Rzhitsky, 42, was killed while jogging. He is accused of launching strikes on Ukrainian civilians including one that left four year old Liza dead. Picture: Social media/Alamy

 

"The submariner [senior Commander Stanislav Rzhitsky of Russia's Black Sea fleet's Kilo-class submarines capable of firing Kalibr cruise missiles] was jogging in the ’30th Anniversary of Victory’ park in Krasnodar. Around 6 a.m., he was shot seven times with a Makarov pistol. As a result of the gunshot wounds, Rzhitsky died on the spot."

"Due to heavy rain, the park was deserted, so there were no witnesses who could provide details or identify the attacker."

"Obviously, he was eliminated by his own men for refusing to continue to carry out combat orders from his command regarding missile attacks on peaceful Ukrainian cities."

Ukraine Defence Intelligence

 

A view shows a building destroyed by a Russian air strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in Orikhiv, Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine July 10, 2023. Head of the Zaporizhzhia Regional Military Administration Yurii Malashko via Telegram/Handout via REUTERS

Another 'Special Military Operation'?

An advertising screen promoting private mercenary group Wagner sits on a building in Moscow on April 17, 2023. - The slogan reads “Together we will win!”.  Natalia Kolesnikova | AFP | Getty Images

"[His Wagner troops would] punish [Russian military leadership for having] destroyed many tens of thousands of lives of Russian soldiers."

"The evil that the military leadership of the country bears must be stopped. I ask no one to resist. Everyone who will try to put up a resistance ... We will consider it a threat and destroy it immediately, including any roadblocks that get in our way, any aircraft that we see over our heads."

"I ask everyone to remain calm and not succumb to provocations, stay in their homes. It is advisable not to go outside along the route of our route."

"We will deal with those who destroy Russian soldiers and return to the front. Justice in the troops will be restored, and after that - justice for all of Russia."

Mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin

 

"On June 23, 2023, the Investigation Department of the FSB of Russia legally and reasonably initiated a criminal case against E.V. Prigozhin under Article 279 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, on the fact of organizing an armed rebellion."

"His actions [launching an “armed rebellion] will be given a proper legal assessment. This crime is punishable by imprisonment for a term of 12 to 20 years."

Russian prosecutor general

 

"Prigozhin’s statements and actions amount to calls for the start of an armed civil conflict on Russian territory and are a ‘stab in the back’ for Russian servicemen fighting pro-fascist Ukrainian forces."

"We call on PMC fighters not to make irreparable mistakes, to stop any forceful actions against the Russian people, not to carry out Prigozhin’s criminal and treacherous orders, to take measures to detain him."

FSB, via Russian state media RIA Novosti.

The entrance of the “PMC Wagner Centre,” associated with the founder of the Wagner private military group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, during the official opening of the office block on National Unity Day, in St. Petersburg.   Olga Maltseva | Afp | Getty Images

Vladimir Putin's closest advisers seem comfortable with the unthinkable. Their advice to the Russian President for ending the 'special military operation' otherwise known as war, is for the controlled battlefield use of small nuclear weapons to bring a quick end to the Ukrainian resistance to Russian violence against it. That, they state, will eliminate Ukraine and give Moscow its opportunity to reap what it has sown, but not in the traditional sense of that proverb. In so doing, a wider/global thermonuclear war can be avoided, they reason.  

Russia's war on Ukraine has not gone its way. The feared and vaunted Russian army has failed to live up to its fearsome reputation. Russia has lost an inordinate number of commanding officers. Tens of thousands of servicemen have died in a war many had no appetite for, while following orders, while others displayed a measure of inhumanity toward those whose country they were looting that surpassed the kind of brutality that war often engenders when the restraints of civilization are loosened and the beast in some men surfaces.

Russia's generals have been challenged time and again by the Wagner mercenary group's chief, Yevgeny Prigozhin, who has accused them of failing to deliver the necessary supplies and arms to the group embroiled in combat. Prigozhin, once a staunch ally of Putin, now accuses him and his minister of defense, of deluding Russians into the belief that Ukraine presented a direct threat to Russia, and that the den of 'fascists' governing Ukraine must be destroyed to save Russia from any further threats emanating from that source.

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu (R) attend a ceremony, marking the Day of Remembrance and Sorrow, June 22, 2023 in Moscow, Russia. Getty Images

 

 Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has issued a warning that Russian forces were in preparation for a "terrorist act" at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, the giant complex that is Europe's largest atomic power station. Ukrainian "intelligence has received information that Russia is considering the scenario of a terrorist act at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant -- a terrorist act with the release of radiation", Zelenskyy said in a video address to his nation. "They have prepared everything for this. Radiation knows no borders", he warned.

Typically, the response from Dmitry Peskov, the much-heard-from Kremlin spokesman was to reject the accusation: "Zelenskyy's words that Russia is allegedly preparing an act of terrorism at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant are another lie". It is a truth, however, that there are growing concerns over the Zaporizhzhia plant's security, since the destruction of the Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine impacts water levels in the nuclear station's cooling pond.

In eastern and southern Ukraine fighting continues, with Russian officials accusing Kyiv of carrying out a missile strike on a bridge that links the southern Ukrainian region of Kherson to Crimea, illegally annexed by Russia in 2014. According to the Kremlin-appointed governor of Kherson region of the Russian-occupied portion, Ukrainian forces hit the bridge with British-made Storm Shadow missiles. "Missile damage to the bridges that connect the Crimea and the Kherson region is another completely senseless action carried out by the Kyiv regime in orders from London", governor Vladimir Saldo said. "This will not affect the course of the special operation in any way -- there are other land routes to the Crimea."

 

The body of a Russian soldier is shown near a destroyed Russian tank near the front line in the newly liberated village of Storozheve, in Ukraine's Donetsk region, on June 14. (Oleksandr Ratushniak/Reuters)

News out of Russia and Ukraine is in a startling new transition period. One that does not entirely negate the possibility that Russia could deploy small, tactical battlefield nuclear devices for maximum effect in deciding a conflict that Russia is abysmally short otherwise of taking the commanding lead in. The insurrection that is being spoken of by Wagner, and the potential for a coup should other arms of the legitimate Russian military wish to take vengeance on a government that sent them unprepared into battle and has overseen the loss of tens of thousands on both the Russian and Ukraine side could gain momentum.

It's hard to believe that a mercenary group that can boast of 25,000 fighting men could prevail against a mighty national army of over a million in arms, the fifth largest standing army in the world.Yet if the Wagner threats are not hollow and the mercenary group which has had foreign fighting experience and has proven itself a more efficient (and brutal) force than most of the Russian military come to actual blows, the diversion will allow Ukraine the opportunity to take advantage of attention turned elsewhere that sees Moscow defending itself on two fronts. 

 

It's not too much to ask for.

Putin is shown on a screen during the broadcast of a plenary session at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, in St. Petersburg, Russia, on June 16. Whether Putin and his top generals would press the nuclear button remains a hotly debated issue, with no consensus in the West. (Yevgeny Biyatov/Reuters)

Russia Victimized by its Military Incompetence

"Today I have sent letters to the investigative Committee and the Prosecutor's Office of the Russian Federation with a request to check on the fact of the commission of a crime during the preparation and during the conduct of the SMO [Special Military Operation] by a host of senior functionaries of the Defence Ministry."

"These letters will not be published due to the fact that the investigative authorities will deal with this."

Yevgeny Prigozhin, Chief, Wagner Group

An image taken from a video posted online by the Prigozhin Press Service on May 5, 2023, shows the head of Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, standing by bodies in an unknown location as he addresses the camera. The owner of Russia's private military company Wagner, Prigozhin, said he would pull Wagner forces from the battle for the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut on May 10, accusing Russia's military command of starving the group of ammunition. Prigozhin Press Service via AP

Russia's unpreparedness for Ukraine's aggressive and hugely effective military reaction to Moscow's invasion of its neighbour has the Kremlin and President Putin on their back foot, embarrassed by their own vulnerability in facing drone incursions into the heart of Moscow, over the Kremlin, targeting the areas where the elite of Russian corporate interests live in their mansions. The ability of a suspected Ukraine offensive to hit Russian border towns and energy and munitions storage depots is bringing home to Russia that they are as likely to suffer the extremes of conflict as what they have imposed upon Ukraine.

The bad-tempered complainant and vociferous critic of the Russian military who has been careful not to criticize Vladimir Putin, his dear friend for whom he has boundless admiration, has turned his sights once again on the Russian top military, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, both of whom Yevgeny Prigozhin detests, claiming they are jealous of the successes gained by his Wagner Group, withholding badly needed weaponry in their nefarious plan to have Wagner mercenaries suffer losses from the Ukrainian military's defenses, while the Russian military gains control and prevails.

Now the most public challenge against the top military brass has been lodged front and centre for prosecutors to investigate crimes committee by the senior Russian defence officials, prior to or throughout the Ukraine war. Prigozhin's vendetta-laden accusations against the two senior leaders for their poor performance, for ignoring his demands for weapons supplies, for alleged treachery is the culmination of his months-long insults and charges of incompetence and stupidity in the prosecution of the conflict and their responsibility in the massive Russian death count of both the military and the Wagner mercenaries.

EPA-EFE/Sergey Kozlov

 

Prigozhin's outrageous charges and his hysterical performances represent an embarrassment to Moscow, which appears never to have responded to any of his charges. He has never launched a challenge against President Putin, and he has high popularity among those Russians dissatisfied with the Russian military role in the conflict imposed upon Ukraine. Their dismay at the losses in the conduct of the war, from war blogger buffs and influential oligarchs to the vast public whose sons have been killed through inept strategies, support the former restaurateur-turned-mercenary chief.

Ukrainian artillery hit a Russian town for a third time, with drones striking two oil refineries, as attacks on Russian territory gain traction. Ukraine bring the war that Russia brought to Ukraine, right back to Russia. Which seems reasonable enough, despite Moscow fuming that such attacks represent terrorist war crimes. Russian citizens are being wounded in their own towns, shells damaging apartments, homes and schools and power lines and industrial facilities. Details quite familiar to Ukrainians living in towns and cities across the vast territory of Ukraine.

Both Ukraine and Russia have committed to targeting each other's forces and military equipment building up to the anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive in weeks or days to come. In eastern Ukraine its general staff described Ukrainian forces fending off 22 Russian attacks in one day alone, when Ukrainian aircraft carried out 11 strikes on Russian personnel and military equipment.

Ukrainian service members from a 110th Separate Mechanis\zed Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, prepare fire a self-propelled howitzer "Dana", amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, near the town of Avdiivka in Donetsk region, Ukraine. Photo by Sofiia Gatilova/REUTERS

 

"This duality [inequality between the elite and the ordinary Russian citizen] may end like it did in 1917, with a revolution, when first the soldiers rise up, and after that their loved ones do."

"[Russian citizens could raid the elites' homes with] pitchforks… and don't think there are hundreds of them, now there are now tens of thousands of relatives of those killed, and there will probably be hundreds of thousands."

"We stormed in an aggressive manner and stomped our boots all over Ukraine while looking for Nazis. We approached Kyiv, s**t our pants, and retreated. Next onto Kherson, where we also s**t our pants and retreated, and nothing seems to be working out for us."

"There are optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. The optimistic one, which I don't really believe in, is that Europe and America will get tired of the Ukrainian conflict, then China will put everyone at the negotiating table."

"We will agree that everything that we have already seized is ours, and everything that has not been seized is not ours. It is unlikely that this scenario is possible."

Yevgeny Prigozhin

 

Messaging Authorities : Confused Yet?

"A pessimistic scenario: the Ukrainians are given missiles, they prepare troops, of course they will continue their offensive, try to counterattack."

"They will attack Crimea, they will try to blow up the Crimean bridge [to the Russian mainland], cut off [our] supply lines."

"Therefore, we need to prepare for a hard war."

"[Russia's invasion goal of] demilitarizing [Ukraine backfired since Kyiv's military is stronger with the supply of weapons and training by its western allies]."

"We are withdrawing units from Bakhmut today."

Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin

Yevgeny Prigozhin speaks to Wagner soldiers in Bakhmut   Reuters

"We can see that the military command as well as the political establishments of the Russian Federation are not ready for this situation."

"They have invested billions in strengthening their line but when it comes to action, everything falls apart and nothing is working."

"I think you will see us again on that side [within Russian territory]."

"I cannot reveal those upcoming things, I cannot even reveal the direction. The … border is pretty long. Yet again there will be a spot where things will get hot."

Denis Kapustin, commander, Russian Volunteer Corps.

 

"We as an official state have nothing to do with these events [striking cross-border from Ukraine within Russia]."

"These are Russian citizens that are doing this as a means to express their attitude towards what is going on in Russia."

"This demonstrates to us that they are not ready for the challenges that are to come, not just in the Belgorod oblast but in any territorial unit of Russia [potential for further uprisings by Russian rebel groups.]"

"The capacity and strengths of the Russian chain of command will not be enough. The system has stopped working. The FSB [Federal Security Service] is supposed to be controlling the border. The question arises: where is the FSB?"

Oleksiy Danilov, secretary, Ukraine national security and defence council

According to the latest wildcat revelations of Russia's private army Wagner Group head, over 20,000 men had been killed in the drawn-out battle for Bakhmut, roughly half of whom were Russian convicts recruited to fight in the conflict. Moscow claims that just over 6,000 of its  troops were killed during the war. Official Soviet troop losses in the 1979-89 war in Afghanistan saw a total of 15,000 Russian servicemen losing their lives, as a point of contrast. 

According to analysts, tens of thousands of soldiers have been killed during the Bakhmut nine-month fight, among them Russian convicts who were reported to have received little training before they were sent to the front.  In an interview with Konstantin Dolgov, pro-Kremlin political strategist, Mr. Prigozhin stated Russian forces had killed civilians despite Moscow' vehement denials.

Earlier in the month a video of Prigozhin published by his media team featured him shouting, swearing claiming the 30 uniformed bodies on the ground around him were Wagner fighters all of whom died that very day. The Russian Defence Ministry, he said, had starved his men of ammunition. He threatened to leave the fight for Bakhmut. In Tuesday's interview he claimed it was possible that the anticipated counteroffensive given continued Western support could push Russian forces out of southern and eastern Ukraine along with annexed Crimea.

The following day the Ukrainian General Staff spoke of "heavy fighting" continuing within Bakhmut, days following Russia having said it had completely captured the devastated city in Donetsk province, one of four provinces annexed last fall by Russia.  It took another day and Moscow announced its forces had crushed a cross-border raid from Ukraine.

On the other hand, in Russia's southern Belgorod region, Russian forces claimed to have shot down "a large number" of drones following a day when Moscow had announced its forces had crushed a cross-border raid in the area, from Ukraine. According to the Belgorod Governor the drones were intercepted overnight and another shot down on Wednesday outside the local capital city Belgorod.

 

Wagner head warns of revolution unless elite gets serious about war – still from video

"This divide [social disparity underlined by the war, with the sons of the poor being sent back from the front in zinc coffins while the children of the elite 'shook their arses' in the sun] can end as in 1917 with a revolution."

"First the soldiers will stand up, and after that – their loved ones will rise up. There are already tens of thousands of them – relatives of those killed. And there will probably be hundreds of thousands – we cannot avoid that."

Wagner Group Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin

Indecently Warmongering Lunacy

"My lads will not suffer useless and unjustified losses in Bakhmut without ammunition."

"If, because of your petty jealousy, you do not want to give the Russian people the victory of taking Bakhmut, that's your [Russian military bureaucrats] problem."

"Because of the lack of ammunition, our losses are increasing exponentially every day."

"On May 10, 2023, we are obliged to transfer positions in the settlement of Bakhmut to units of the defence ministry and withdraw the remains of Wagner to logistics camps to lick our wounds."

"Shoigu! [Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu] ... Gerasimov! [Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov] ... Where is the ***** ammunition?"

"[Shoigu and Gerasimov must bear the responsibility for] tens of thousands of Wagner dead and injured."

"We’ve taken 95% of Bakhmut. For this last 5%, the ‘Red Army’ [the Russian Armed Forces] are not playing any role."

"Shoigu! Gerasimov! Where is the... ammunition?... They came here as volunteers and die for you to fatten yourselves in your mahogany offices."

"There will be no more meat grinder because there’s nothing left to grind the meat with." 

Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, video ranting threat

Yevgeny Prigozhin announcing his intent to withdraw from Bakhmut   Concord Press Service

 

A lack of weaponry and of ammunition. This is what the head of the mercenary Russian Wagner Group bemoans and has been demanding for months, while his men in their thousands surround and besiege a relatively much smaller Ukrainian military group defending Bakhmut. The small industrial mining city has become a symbol of Ukrainian perseverance and courage as opposed to Russian incompetence and desperation. An estimated 20,000 Russian troops, both conventional military but mostly mercenary, have died in their offensive efforts to take the city.

 

Although Wagner's head warned he was preparing to pull his mercenaries out of Bakhmut, according to Ukraine authorities the Wagner fighters were reinforcing positions in a plan to seize the battered city in advance of the Russian anniversary of its victory against Nazi Germany during World War II. Because his men have been starved of the ammunition they need to succeed in totally routing the Ukrainian military still holding on to part of the city; according to Prigozhin the Russian army would take their place by next Wednesday.

 

Prigozhin's propagandists produced a video to accompany a written withdrawal announcement addressed to the head of the general staff, the defence minister and Russian supreme leader President Vladimir Putin. Dripping with blame and drama, charging 'bureaucrats' of holding back desperately needed supplies, Prigozhin staged himself standing in a field of Wagner corpses, bitterly emphasizing his loss and the Russian military betrayal of the nobility of the unrecognized Wagner sacrifice.

The threatening appeal had its response when state-operated RIA news agency reported the instructions issued to a deputy by Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu to ensure the Wagner troops had all the weapons required in the field of combat. Russia views the taking of Bakhmut -- a goal that has eluded Moscow for six months of brutal combat -- as the first in a succession of steps to claiming other cities in the Donbas. The grinding warfare has exacted an enormous toll on the lives of both Ukrainian and Russian soldiers, Russia losing the most.

Ukrainian troops, though hard pressed in recent weeks, continue to cling to the city with the intention of inflicting as many losses for Russia as possible, ahead of Kyiv's plans to launch its anticipated spring offensive against the invading forces along the 1,000-km front line. According to a senior Ukrainian official, Russia was in the process of ordering Wagner fighters from along the front line to Bakhmut to conclude its capture by Victory Day.

"We are now seeing them pulling [fighters] from the entire offensive line where the Wagner ftghters were, they are pulling [them] to the Bakhmut direction", stated Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar on Ukrainian television. Former Russian deputy defence minister Col.Gen. Mikhail Mizintsev joined Wagner as a deputy commander, reported Russian pro-war social media channels. 

It is anticipated that the Ukrainian counterattack is likely to encompass the Zaporizhzhia region where some 80 percent is held by Moscow. Moscow issued a directive more recently that ordered residents of a number of towns to evacuate immediately in the region, creating yet another situation of chaotic traffic of desperate people. Russian news agencies reported a second drone attack in as many days n the Ilsky oil refinery in the south on Friday close inside the Russian border.

"Overnight we received a combat order, for the first time in all this time. We have been promised as much ammunition and weapons as we need to continue further operations."

"We have been promised that everything needed to prevent the enemy from cutting us off [from supplies] will be deployed on the flank.”\"

"[Russia’s defence ministry assigned Gen Sergei Surovikin to work alongside Wagner.] This is the only man with the star of an army general who knows how to fight."

Yevgeny Prizozhin, change of plan to depart Bakhmut

Fighting has raged in Bakhmut for months, but the city has not yet fallen to Russian troops.  Anatolii Stepanov/AFP/Getty Images