Russian Troops Out of Their League

"Russia has re-energized its assault on the Donetsk Oblast town of Bakhmut as forces of the Russian Ministry of Defence and the Wagner Group have improved cooperation."

"Ukrainian forces face significant resupply issues but have made orderly withdrawals from the positions they have been forced to concede."

British Military assessment

"Our target in that direction is mostly infantry. There is a big concentration of the Russian Federation's 'human factor'."

"The third one [of three shells of the artillery unit's guns] is finishing off. Most likely, I hope, the infantry they spotted was eliminated."

Dmytro, 44, Ukrainian artillery unit commander

 

"[Ukraine has to mount its expected counter-offensive soon or] gradually lose their combative potential."

"For us, Bakhmut is very advantageous. We grind down the Ukrainian army there and restrain its manoeuvres."

Wagner's founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin

Ukrainian servicemen return from heavy fighting close to Bakhmut, Ukraine, April 14, 2023. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach

 Circumstances have finally forced Ukrainian troops to withdraw from some Bakhmut areas facing a renewed Russian onslaught in the battlefield city, ruined after months of relentless battle. Moscow, says British intelligence, is pressing to score a victory before Ukraine initiates its expected spring counteroffensive. According to Ukrainian officials, Russia has been drawing down its troops from other platforms on the Ukraine front in favour of a massive push on Bakhmut.

This is the city that Moscow has targeted as a coup to present to the Russian public, representing a victory after nine months without success. Should the city fall completely into Russian hands, re-supplying Ukrainian troops will become more difficult. At the same time Moscow is counting on its total capture to act as a morale booster for its troops. It comes at a heavy cost in the lives of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers; far fewer those of Ukrainian servicemen.

It has been well demonstrated that there has been active acrimony between the regular Russian military and the leader of the Wagner Group. Yevgeny Prigozhin has been known to complain bitterly that the Russian military heads are jealous of the successes realized by his group, and that they have withheld restoring needed ammunition to his group, in a plot to constrain their forward momentum. That the Russian Defence Ministry and its main mercenary force have been at odds rather than cooperative was marked a major Russian weak link.

Close to Bakhmut a Ukrainian artillery unit's soldiers loaded shells into a Soviet-era howitzer, firing toward the front line where they suspected that Russia had massed its foot soldiers. The howitzer blasted three shells, the first one meant to find range, the second to adjust aim, the third to hit its presumed target. With a view to mortal destruction.

Ukrainian artillery fires toward the Russian front lines in Bakhmut   Reuters

 

Once a city of 70,000 population pre-war, Bakhmut has represented the main target in a massive winter offensive that has to the present yielded scant gains for Russia, despite infantry ground combat with an intensity reminiscent of Second World War combat. Russian commanders redirected troops to Bakhmut from other areas, according to Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar. "The enemy is using its most professional units there, and resorting to a significant amount of artillery and aviation".

Ukraine still holds the town's western districts while being subjected to particularly intense Russian artillery fire over the previous 48 hours, noted the British update. The city's capture would represent the first substantive victory for Russia in eight months. An astonishing situation given Russia's superior numbers and arms, and possibly reflective of the inexperience of its many novice servicemen, substandard training, and poor strategic moves on the part of their officers.

The second half of 2022 saw major Ukrainian breakthroughs in counteroffensives leading to a static front line in the last five months, massive Russian offensive aside. Hundreds of thousands of freshly conscripted reservists and thousands of convicts recruited as mercenaries from jails account for a good deal of Russia's sluggish impetus. Kyiv awaits the arrival of new arms from the West for its counteroffensive in coming months, while defending its lines. 

"We are readying our boys [for the spring offensive]."

"We look forward to the delivery of weapons promised by our partners."

"We are bringing victory closer as much as possible."

"[The main aim remains] the destruction of the occupiers [and] the depletion of their resources."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Bakhmut has seen heavy fighting for months    AP

How Goes Putin's Ukraine War in Russia?

"Russian people are able to distinguish between true patriots and scum and traitors, and simply spit them out like a fly that flew into their mouths."

"I am convinced that a natural and necessary self-purification of society will strengthen our country."

"I do not at all judge those who have a villa in Miami or on the French Riviera, who can't do without foie gras, oysters or gender freedoms."

"But the issue here is that many of these people are by their very nature, mentally located there and not here with our people, not in Russia."

Russian President Vladimir Putin

Putin with Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, second from left, and Valery Gerasimov, head of the general staff of the armed forces, in Moscow. (Alexei Nikolsky, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

Russian President Vladimir Putin, obviously more than a trifle dissatisfied with the way his invasion of Ukraine has proceeded, and the reluctance of his military advisers to speak frankly with him about his prospects in anticipating a quick crumbling of Ukraine's government, is also obviously under great duress by his increasing isolation within the international community and the opprobrium that has fallen upon his decision to launch his 'special military program' on Ukraine. Russia requires 'purifying'.

Which is to say, the traitors that protest in the streets, the advisers and generals who fail their leader by allowing their fear of consequences to restrain them from pointing out the folly of his commands and demands and expectations. The Kremlin is facing a period of dislocated expectations and viral insecurity with the stressors and strains that exist of late between the dictator and his minions.

According to Western intelligence, Russian casualties, including the deaths of three generals and an admiral among the estimated 15,000 to 20,000 military deaths and huge numbers of casualties, not to mention the loss of armoured cars, tanks and planes to Ukrainian military moves in defence of their country has placed a strain on Mr. Putin's relations with his military staff. A purge appears to have resulted from these dramatic losses in so short a time.

General Roman Gavrilov, deputy head of Russia's National Guard, appears to have been 'demoted', among others in the intelligence community and military; commanders suddenly absent from duty. An angry Russian president, furious about 'traitors' in their midst, also speaks of the West's aspiration to destroy Russia. The presence in Russian society of milquetoasts who prefer decadent Western delicacies over supporting Russia in her 'hour of need' infuriates him.

 

A destroyed armored personnel carrier stands in front of a damaged by shelling building in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on March 11, 2022. (AP Photo/Andrew Marienko)

 

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov's explanation is that people simply "are disappearing from our lives by themselves". Resigning from jobs or leaving Russia. "This is how this purification happens", he said, speaking to journalists on a conference call; many people "show themselves to be traitors", at times of national difficulties. Antiwar protests in Russia has seen some 15,000 people detained since the invasion of Ukraine. Russia's new media law threatens prison terms up to 15 years for the spread of "fake news" on the military or sanctions.

The crackdown has spurred tens of thousands of Russians to leave the country, going abroad to escape the situation. Russians abandoning their homes and careers for shelter in Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, Armenia, Turkey and Israel. As for General Gavrilov, he was reported arrested as a result of "leaks of military information leading to loss of life", or the "wasteful squandering of fuel"; take your pick. 

An enlightening thought from Christo Grozev, chief Russia investigator at the Bellingcat open-source intelligence reporting project: "It's doubtless that Putin recognizes the deep s--t this operation is in. It's so bad that he changes horses in midstream -- a big no-no during war". The head and deputy head of a FSB spy unit arrested over the weekend, responsible for pre-invasion intelligence in Ukraine.

"It looks like two weeks into the war, it finally dawned on Putin that he was completely misled. The department, fearful of is responses, seems to have told Putin what he wanted to hear", wrote Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan, Russian journalists, who wrote an article for the Centre for European Policy Analysis, that Col.Gen. Sergei Beseda and his deputy Anatoly Bolyukh were arrested for corruption and intelligence failings.

Putin toasts with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev after talks in the Kremlin. (Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

"[Putin's language was] fanatical [and] hugely dangerous."

"There is a desperation that might make him consider a course of action we would view as very dangerous indeed. I'm deeply concerned about where his state of mind is at and how desperate he may become."

"[Developments within the Kremlin were evidence of] real discord [at the top of the Russian high command]."

James Heappey, U.K. Armed Forces Minister