Russian Troops Out of Their League

"Russia has re-energized its assault on the Donetsk Oblast town of Bakhmut as forces of the Russian Ministry of Defence and the Wagner Group have improved cooperation."

"Ukrainian forces face significant resupply issues but have made orderly withdrawals from the positions they have been forced to concede."

British Military assessment

"Our target in that direction is mostly infantry. There is a big concentration of the Russian Federation's 'human factor'."

"The third one [of three shells of the artillery unit's guns] is finishing off. Most likely, I hope, the infantry they spotted was eliminated."

Dmytro, 44, Ukrainian artillery unit commander

 

"[Ukraine has to mount its expected counter-offensive soon or] gradually lose their combative potential."

"For us, Bakhmut is very advantageous. We grind down the Ukrainian army there and restrain its manoeuvres."

Wagner's founder, Yevgeny Prigozhin

Ukrainian servicemen return from heavy fighting close to Bakhmut, Ukraine, April 14, 2023. REUTERS/Kai Pfaffenbach

 Circumstances have finally forced Ukrainian troops to withdraw from some Bakhmut areas facing a renewed Russian onslaught in the battlefield city, ruined after months of relentless battle. Moscow, says British intelligence, is pressing to score a victory before Ukraine initiates its expected spring counteroffensive. According to Ukrainian officials, Russia has been drawing down its troops from other platforms on the Ukraine front in favour of a massive push on Bakhmut.

This is the city that Moscow has targeted as a coup to present to the Russian public, representing a victory after nine months without success. Should the city fall completely into Russian hands, re-supplying Ukrainian troops will become more difficult. At the same time Moscow is counting on its total capture to act as a morale booster for its troops. It comes at a heavy cost in the lives of tens of thousands of Russian soldiers; far fewer those of Ukrainian servicemen.

It has been well demonstrated that there has been active acrimony between the regular Russian military and the leader of the Wagner Group. Yevgeny Prigozhin has been known to complain bitterly that the Russian military heads are jealous of the successes realized by his group, and that they have withheld restoring needed ammunition to his group, in a plot to constrain their forward momentum. That the Russian Defence Ministry and its main mercenary force have been at odds rather than cooperative was marked a major Russian weak link.

Close to Bakhmut a Ukrainian artillery unit's soldiers loaded shells into a Soviet-era howitzer, firing toward the front line where they suspected that Russia had massed its foot soldiers. The howitzer blasted three shells, the first one meant to find range, the second to adjust aim, the third to hit its presumed target. With a view to mortal destruction.

Ukrainian artillery fires toward the Russian front lines in Bakhmut   Reuters

 

Once a city of 70,000 population pre-war, Bakhmut has represented the main target in a massive winter offensive that has to the present yielded scant gains for Russia, despite infantry ground combat with an intensity reminiscent of Second World War combat. Russian commanders redirected troops to Bakhmut from other areas, according to Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Maliar. "The enemy is using its most professional units there, and resorting to a significant amount of artillery and aviation".

Ukraine still holds the town's western districts while being subjected to particularly intense Russian artillery fire over the previous 48 hours, noted the British update. The city's capture would represent the first substantive victory for Russia in eight months. An astonishing situation given Russia's superior numbers and arms, and possibly reflective of the inexperience of its many novice servicemen, substandard training, and poor strategic moves on the part of their officers.

The second half of 2022 saw major Ukrainian breakthroughs in counteroffensives leading to a static front line in the last five months, massive Russian offensive aside. Hundreds of thousands of freshly conscripted reservists and thousands of convicts recruited as mercenaries from jails account for a good deal of Russia's sluggish impetus. Kyiv awaits the arrival of new arms from the West for its counteroffensive in coming months, while defending its lines. 

"We are readying our boys [for the spring offensive]."

"We look forward to the delivery of weapons promised by our partners."

"We are bringing victory closer as much as possible."

"[The main aim remains] the destruction of the occupiers [and] the depletion of their resources."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Bakhmut has seen heavy fighting for months    AP