How Goes Putin's Ukraine War in Russia?

"Russian people are able to distinguish between true patriots and scum and traitors, and simply spit them out like a fly that flew into their mouths."

"I am convinced that a natural and necessary self-purification of society will strengthen our country."

"I do not at all judge those who have a villa in Miami or on the French Riviera, who can't do without foie gras, oysters or gender freedoms."

"But the issue here is that many of these people are by their very nature, mentally located there and not here with our people, not in Russia."

Russian President Vladimir Putin

Putin with Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu, second from left, and Valery Gerasimov, head of the general staff of the armed forces, in Moscow. (Alexei Nikolsky, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

Russian President Vladimir Putin, obviously more than a trifle dissatisfied with the way his invasion of Ukraine has proceeded, and the reluctance of his military advisers to speak frankly with him about his prospects in anticipating a quick crumbling of Ukraine's government, is also obviously under great duress by his increasing isolation within the international community and the opprobrium that has fallen upon his decision to launch his 'special military program' on Ukraine. Russia requires 'purifying'.

Which is to say, the traitors that protest in the streets, the advisers and generals who fail their leader by allowing their fear of consequences to restrain them from pointing out the folly of his commands and demands and expectations. The Kremlin is facing a period of dislocated expectations and viral insecurity with the stressors and strains that exist of late between the dictator and his minions.

According to Western intelligence, Russian casualties, including the deaths of three generals and an admiral among the estimated 15,000 to 20,000 military deaths and huge numbers of casualties, not to mention the loss of armoured cars, tanks and planes to Ukrainian military moves in defence of their country has placed a strain on Mr. Putin's relations with his military staff. A purge appears to have resulted from these dramatic losses in so short a time.

General Roman Gavrilov, deputy head of Russia's National Guard, appears to have been 'demoted', among others in the intelligence community and military; commanders suddenly absent from duty. An angry Russian president, furious about 'traitors' in their midst, also speaks of the West's aspiration to destroy Russia. The presence in Russian society of milquetoasts who prefer decadent Western delicacies over supporting Russia in her 'hour of need' infuriates him.

 

A destroyed armored personnel carrier stands in front of a damaged by shelling building in Kharkiv, Ukraine, on March 11, 2022. (AP Photo/Andrew Marienko)

 

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov's explanation is that people simply "are disappearing from our lives by themselves". Resigning from jobs or leaving Russia. "This is how this purification happens", he said, speaking to journalists on a conference call; many people "show themselves to be traitors", at times of national difficulties. Antiwar protests in Russia has seen some 15,000 people detained since the invasion of Ukraine. Russia's new media law threatens prison terms up to 15 years for the spread of "fake news" on the military or sanctions.

The crackdown has spurred tens of thousands of Russians to leave the country, going abroad to escape the situation. Russians abandoning their homes and careers for shelter in Kyrgyzstan, Georgia, Armenia, Turkey and Israel. As for General Gavrilov, he was reported arrested as a result of "leaks of military information leading to loss of life", or the "wasteful squandering of fuel"; take your pick. 

An enlightening thought from Christo Grozev, chief Russia investigator at the Bellingcat open-source intelligence reporting project: "It's doubtless that Putin recognizes the deep s--t this operation is in. It's so bad that he changes horses in midstream -- a big no-no during war". The head and deputy head of a FSB spy unit arrested over the weekend, responsible for pre-invasion intelligence in Ukraine.

"It looks like two weeks into the war, it finally dawned on Putin that he was completely misled. The department, fearful of is responses, seems to have told Putin what he wanted to hear", wrote Andrei Soldatov and Irina Borogan, Russian journalists, who wrote an article for the Centre for European Policy Analysis, that Col.Gen. Sergei Beseda and his deputy Anatoly Bolyukh were arrested for corruption and intelligence failings.

Putin toasts with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev after talks in the Kremlin. (Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP)

"[Putin's language was] fanatical [and] hugely dangerous."

"There is a desperation that might make him consider a course of action we would view as very dangerous indeed. I'm deeply concerned about where his state of mind is at and how desperate he may become."

"[Developments within the Kremlin were evidence of] real discord [at the top of the Russian high command]."

James Heappey, U.K. Armed Forces Minister