Obama delays Syria strike indefinitely by turning decision over to Congress
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report August 31, 2013, 10:04 PM (IDT)
Confounding tense expectations worldwide, US
President Barack Obama again dodged a decision for a US strike on Syria
by referring it to Congress. In a speech to the American people,
Saturday, Aug. 31, he said the use of chemical weapons by Bashar Assad
must be “confronted not just investigated.” But then went on to say, “We
are ready to strike whenever we choose. This operation is not
time-sensitive. It could take place tomorrow, next week, or next month.
The US House Speaker meanwhile set Sept. 9 as the date for the debate to start.
By these words, the US president chipped away once again at US
military plans for Syria - only this time, they looked like vanishing
into the blue yonder, leaving Assad and his partners all the time in the
world to line up their counter moves, and putting Israel in a tight
spot on three counts:
1. The hostile Iran-Syrian-Hizballah bloc comes out strengthened;
2. Tehran can feel free to develop a nuclear bomb without fear of resolute US interference;
3. Hizballah can celebrate its backing for the winning horse in Damascus.
4. Binyamin Netanyahu’s six-year old policy, which was oriented on
engendering understanding with Barack Obama, is in ruins, although it
was endorsed by Israel’s defense ministers on the assumption that it
was in the interests of national security.
As we reported earlier, President Obama confirmed Friday night that
the forthcoming US military attack on Syria would be “limited” and
“narrow” and not open-ended, in a bid to avoid the risk of America
being mired in the Syrian civil war.
DEBKA Weekly’s analysts calculated Thursday that by
forgoing an air assault and relegating his projected military operation
against Syria solely to seaborne Tomahawk cruise missiles - limited to
15 launches - the US president relinquished America’s “penetration and
destruction” capabilities – depending of course on his sticking to this
plan and not expanding its scope at the last minute.
The Tomahawk cruise missile has a range of 2,500 kms, weighs 450
kilos and can be fired from the five US destroyers and the four US
nuclear submarines waiting in the eastern Mediterranean for orders to
go.
However powerful, the exclusive use of this type of missile means that
Washington has a priori sacrificed the following military objectives:
1. Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles will remain intact. The Tomahawks
can damage surface structures at the bases hosting them, but not
penetrate their underground storage sites.
Assad will be left in full possession of his CW arsenal.
2. Neither can Tomahawks alone cripple the Syrian Air Force or shut
down its bases. They could damage runways, but only for the hours or
days it would take to repair them.
DEBKA Weekly's military sources say that the Syria air force is left
with six air bases still operational, out of a total of thirty. A
heavier and larger missile onslaught than the limited assault planned
could have destroyed them all, given the Syrian rebels a huge advantage
and opened the way for a plan to impose no-fly zones over Syrian air
space.
But Obama clearly chose to discard those options.
By delaying his go-ahead on military action against Syria, he gave
the Assad regime time to tuck most of its air force bombers and attack
helicopters away in fortified hangars early this week, safe from attack.
As the hours slipped by with US action, the Syrian ruler’s
self-confidence mounted.
3. Syrian missiles have likewise been hidden in underground bunkers.
They include the Scud C and D missiles capable of carrying chemical
warheads.
4. The big Syrian field command centers will also escape unscathed, although
DEBKA Weekly’s military
sources report that many of them figure as large as strategic assets on
the list of targets which the Pentagon and US military chiefs
originally put before the president.
Among them were the command and control centers of the Syrian army’s
4th Division and Republican Guard Division, which protect Bashar Assad
and bolster his regime's hold on power.
It is not clear if the military command centers of Homs, Hama,
Tartus, Latakia, the Aleppo area and Idlib remain on the final list.
Striking those targets would have shut down the Syrian military
command system and seriously disrupted its operational capabilities.
A second list of 35 strategic targets was handed to President Obama
by Syrian rebel commander Brig. Gen. Salim Idris, according to our
sources. Their destruction was described as vital. However, not a single
item on the list was approved by the president, the Pentagon on the
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Gen. Martin Dempsey, reflecting the
distrust and disconnect prevailing between the US administration and
military, and the Syrian rebel leadership.
5. Our sources say that the US military to-do list for Syria covers
army artillery units, some of which participated in the chemical weapons
launch of August 21 against eastern Damascus; local command and
communications centers; and research institutes involved in the
development and upgrade of Syrian chemical weapons.
This heavily pruned US operation, if it goes through, will leave
Syrian President Bashar Assad sitting pretty with most of his military
resources intact, and his hands free to continue his barbaric war on the
Syrian opposition, including the use of chemical weapons, unhindered
and undeterred.
It is still possible for President Obama to have second thoughts about
his low-key operational plan and decide after all to land a strategic
blow on Syria.
Labels: Atrocities, Conflict, Life's Like That, Syria, United States Intervention