Behind Enemy Lines on the Home Front

"[Putin is] clearly weaponizing winter to inflict immense suffering on the Ukrainian people [and] trying to freeze the country into submission."

"Having struggled on the battlefield Moscow is now adopting a cowardly and inhumane strategy that punishes Ukrainian men, women and children."

Linda Thomas-Greenfield, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations

"We have chopped wood, we will survive."

"They [Russian invaders] have destroyed my apartment already. That was worse than this. This is our life and our life has prepared us."

"We will not give up, and everything that happened in March was much worse than now. We already know it can be worse."

Tatiana, Ukrainian internally displaced citizen

"I am a bit worried about winter but we have been preparing getting firewood ready and warm clothing."

"More than anything we hope that there will not be another invasion."

"Although we had no electricity [for six months under Russian military occupation], somehow we survived."

"Human beings will find a way to survive in any conditions."

Artem Famenko, 39, municipal water department worker, Izyum, Ukraine

Tetiana Reznychenko, a resident of the Ukrainian village of Horenka, shovels snow near her apartment building, which has no electricity, heating or running water, November  2022

 

In preparation for being plunged into the icy depths of winter, Ukrainians in the east in particular are gathering firewood, knowing how imperative it is to be self-reliant at a time their country is under siege by an aggressor pursuing a punishing strategy of forcing millions of ordinary citizens to scrounge for materials in the hopes of getting through a stark winter without electricity and heat; possibly a shortage of food and medicines, and potable water.

The city of Izyum in the east, occupied by the Russian military for six months and finally freed from Russian occupation and the indignities, dangers and hardships accompanying that state, are relieved they have been returned to Ukrainian rule through a Ukrainian military counteroffensive that routed the Russian military. The city, however, was ransacked and much of it ruined. And now that the Russians hastily retreated, they still aim their missiles and drones at the city, acts of war against civilian infrastructure.

City residents will take whatever opportunity presents itself to stock up on firewood, including chopping  ammunition crates discarded by the retreating Russian military. The outlook for survival is grim but they face it with confidence, Ukrainians preparing themselves, knowing that mid-winter will bring plunging temperatures as low as -20C and the prospect of a winter as miserable as those they suffered through during World War II.

 

Members of Ukrainian army prepare BM-21 Grad rockets to be launched in Bakhmut, Donetsk, Ukraine on November 26, 2022

 

They are under no illusions, knowing full well that it is not only the brutal winter cold without adequate heating and electricity that will test their endurance, but the constant shelling of civilian infrastructure, from apartment buildings to hospitals that will challenge the resolve of the people to endure and hope for better days and an end to the 9-month-long war. There is much work to be done, firewood chopped and ready, windows to be covered for cold-insulation and amassing warm winter clothing.

"[Putin's Wednesday barrage had created a situation not seen for 80 or 90 years] -- a country on the European continent where there was no light."

"Together we endured nine months of full-scale war and Russia has not found a way to break us, and will not find one."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

"Put simply, this winter will be about survival."

"We expect two to three million more people to leave their homes in search of warmth and safety."

Dr. Hans Kluge, Europe director World Health Organization

For most people who refused to leave their city for other parts of Ukraine more secure and further from enemy lines, the fear is the possibility of a return by the Russian occupiers. The occupation from March to just a few weeks ago was agonizing, a terrible time in the lives of the residents of Izyum and other nearby communities. The prospect of their winter hardships while concerning, seems less worrisome than the thought of falling under Russian occupation again.

 

Ongoing waves of Russian missiles and explosive drones badly damaged the entire country's power grid, knocking up to half of the country's capacity off line. Some of the most damaging attacks struck the system in midweek. Half of Kyiv was still without power two days later, while engineers struggled to reconnect people to the grid. Authorities established "invincibility centres" for people to charge their phones, to warm up and to be given hot drinks. 

Aid agencies warn that winter will see misery on a greater scale afflict a people already under huge stress by relentless Russian missile attacks targeting the width and breadth of the country Russian is doing its best to eviscerate Ukraine. Over six million Ukrainian citizens left their homes in a mass movement to other, safer parts of the country. A like number of Ukrainian refugees have gone abroad for safe haven. Their government has appealed to them to remain where they are through the winter, to save energy for use in hospitals and other critical social welfare establishments.

A view from Kyiv after the snow hits capital city on November 19, 2022 as Russia-Ukraine war continues in Ukraine

 

For Ukrainians living in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine, no assistance has trickled through since the beginning of the conflict. With winter offering more difficulties to daily living, the concern is that they may succumb to the necessity to make perilous trips across front lines. "It's going to be an incredibly difficult winter and providing humanitarian assistance is a matter of life and death" Marysia Zapasnik, Ukraine director for the International Rescue Committee aid agency, said grimly.Troops on either side, are facing living in the open under freezing rain conditions.

Some Ukrainian servicemen are beginning to suffer from trench foot, a condition associated with swelling and numbness of the feet. Hopes are high nonetheless that they will be able to endure the rigours of winter better than their poorly equipped Russian counterparts. Lacking proper winter equipment and clothing, newly mobilized Russian forces complain of being thrown into the forest unprepared.

"Of course we are nervous. We understand winter is coming and we understand that the attacks will continue."

"All these strikes are concentrating our community, concentrating our nation to unite. Yes the situation is hard, but it's a great mistake for our enemy to think they can change the will of the Ukrainian people."

Mayor Igor Terekhov, Kharkiv, eastern Ukraine

Winter weather could disproportionately harm poorly-equipped Russian forces in Ukraine,' defence analysts from the ISW said (destroyed Russian convoy pictured in Bucha, March 1 2022

It's a Drought, Searing Heat-Impacted Harvest in the Canadian Prairies

"It's really brown right now, but our farm is actually in a beautiful spot."

"It's pretty remarkable to say that this wheat I'm growing right now is going to end up all over the world and in someone's kitchen. It's a pretty special thing to get to say that I'm growing wheat in Alberta."

"In the middle of the summer, I was feeling pretty stressed about it [drought]. And you do what  you can. We're going to be fine for next year. But what really contributes to my stress levels is that it's been said that droughts come in three- and five-year cycles. So if we do find ourselves in a prolonged drought cycle, it will have impacts on our ability to keep doing this."

Hanna Konschuh, Generation Land & Grain Co.Ltd., family farm 

“We had a really good growing season last year (pictured), so that’s going to buffer us a bit,” says Hannah Konschuh, who farms near Cluny, Alta. Photo by Hannah Konschuh

"It's going to be an interesting season because we're seeing lowered production across major exporters. So the supply available globally is shorter than it has been in previous years."

"Our domestic consumption in a normal year would be around eight million tonnes -- [24 million tonnes is] more than enough."

Daniel Ramage, director of market access and trade policy Cereals Canada  

"I think what's becoming increasingly challenging, especially for young farmers who are just coming into this and facing some pretty significant expenses, is not knowing."

"It's the uncertainty of what impact climate change is going to have on their ability to viably farm."

Erin Gowriluk, executive director, Grain Growers of Canada

Photo by David Gray /Getty Images

"This is the worst year I've ever witnessed. Since the snow left this spring, we haven't had enough rain that would wet your T-shirt."

"Even in my garden, I had cherry trees that looked like I was going to get a nice crop and the heat just fried them. They shrivelled up to nothing. It was just so hot.""Apples were burnt on one side, little green apples. It's like someone took a torch to them."

"We might not be able to fill some bigger orders."

Tony Van Den Tillaart, co-founder, Fieldstone Organics, Armstrong, British Columbia

Western Canada's prairie provinces are seeing unprecedented soaring heat temperatures this year. On Hannah Konschuh's farm overlooking the Bow River, Canadian Prairie spring wheat yield has dwindled to 12 bushels an acre from its 2020 yield of 65 bushels an acre. Hard red spring wheat generally considered more drought-tolerant has succumbed to the drought and searing heat, as has the farm's barley, yielding 10 to 15 bushels per acre as compared to over 100 the year before.

Through Western Canada, from Vancouver Island to northwestern Ontario a stark picture has emerged out of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's Drought Monitor map where the three Prairie provinces are mottled brown, red, orange, tan and yellow; a sliding scale of abnormal lack of moisture. Harvest began seven to 14 days earlier as a result of the record-breaking temperatures and absent rain, explained Cereals Canada's director of market access and trade policy, Daniel Ramage, adding that the situation pertains right across North America.

The forecast is for 24 million tonnes of Canadian what production, a 32 percent decrease from 2020 according to the latest USDA estimate. Countries such as Russia and Kazakhstan have cut their production estimates as well in indication that lower yields in North America have also impacted the wheat growing season in those countries and for the same reasons. Bread prices are tentatively forecast to rise by up to 6.5 percent by year's end.

While harvest is underway, the full impact of the severe weather on quantity and quality of grain has not yet been fully determined since farmers in some areas fare well but in others harvest is anticipated to be as low as 50 percent normal. What is unique about this drought season is its widespread nature whereas in the past there were pockets of drought causing a drop in wheat quality but 80 percent would still be good, very good or excellent. The current situation reverses that, where in Alberta 80 percent of crops are now of lesser quality.

Some areas have been coping with drought effects while under wildfire evacuation alert. "These fires have just made it worse because you don't get the sunlight. It affects plants that are trying to ripen", explained Tony Van Den Tillaart of Armstrong, B.C. Some farmers in his area are harvesting 75 percent of what 2020 rendered, while others can manage only 50, 25 and others yet, ten percent of normal harvest. 

In Saskatoon, baker Bryn Rawlyk  has canvassed local farmers and each of them has been affected by drought; some have sufficient stock set aside from 2020 to meet his bakery's needs for the coming year, but his concerns centre on the drought conditions continuing. "Everyone's been on edge", he states. How will wheat grown in drought conditions and under heat stress perform for bakers -- another area of concern when local flour is prioritized.

 

Heat, wind, grasshoppers and very little rain have resulted in major production loss for Saskatchewan farmers. (Richard Agecoutay/CBC News)

"People in Saskatchewan are always once or twice removed from a farmer. Here in the Prairies, we're known as the breadbasket of North America. That's shown in the product, but also just the livelihoods of so many of the people, and the people connected with those activities and families and forums."

"We try to find different uses for it [drought-stressed wheat] within the bakery [baking flatbreads instead of aiming for a lofty loaf]."

"That's what I think is a nice thing about the dynamic nature of what we're allowed to do, and those skills as bakers in the bakery - of taking a product and being more nimble with it."

Bryn Rawlyk, The Night Oven, Saskatoon bakery

University of Saskatchewan Prof. John Pomeroy predicts more frequent and severe droughts in the Prairie region by the late 21st century. (Richard Agecoutay/CBC News)

"Some are projecting almost no harvest at all, or just enough to maybe replace the seed that they planted in the ground so they can get seed planted next summer. Some are harvesting about 25 percent of what they would typically expect The conditions are terrible."

"We will feel the effects in a few months when grain reserves start to really dwindle, and we're scrambling to find [grains] and we're probably paying much higher prices."

"The farmers are the people on those first lines. They see it every single day that there's no rain in the forecast, and it's awful to witness. But it's important to be connected to our food in that way."

"Because we're extremely committed to our farming suppliers and milling our own grain, we have to let the grain tell us how to make the bread."

"This is bad timing to be coming off of a really terrible harvest. But I hope it serves as an opportunity to help illustrate to people the challenges of growing food."

Janna Bishop, co-founder, CEO, Flourist, Vancouver mill and bakery