It's a Drought, Searing Heat-Impacted Harvest in the Canadian Prairies

"It's really brown right now, but our farm is actually in a beautiful spot."

"It's pretty remarkable to say that this wheat I'm growing right now is going to end up all over the world and in someone's kitchen. It's a pretty special thing to get to say that I'm growing wheat in Alberta."

"In the middle of the summer, I was feeling pretty stressed about it [drought]. And you do what  you can. We're going to be fine for next year. But what really contributes to my stress levels is that it's been said that droughts come in three- and five-year cycles. So if we do find ourselves in a prolonged drought cycle, it will have impacts on our ability to keep doing this."

Hanna Konschuh, Generation Land & Grain Co.Ltd., family farm 

“We had a really good growing season last year (pictured), so that’s going to buffer us a bit,” says Hannah Konschuh, who farms near Cluny, Alta. Photo by Hannah Konschuh

"It's going to be an interesting season because we're seeing lowered production across major exporters. So the supply available globally is shorter than it has been in previous years."

"Our domestic consumption in a normal year would be around eight million tonnes -- [24 million tonnes is] more than enough."

Daniel Ramage, director of market access and trade policy Cereals Canada  

"I think what's becoming increasingly challenging, especially for young farmers who are just coming into this and facing some pretty significant expenses, is not knowing."

"It's the uncertainty of what impact climate change is going to have on their ability to viably farm."

Erin Gowriluk, executive director, Grain Growers of Canada

Photo by David Gray /Getty Images

"This is the worst year I've ever witnessed. Since the snow left this spring, we haven't had enough rain that would wet your T-shirt."

"Even in my garden, I had cherry trees that looked like I was going to get a nice crop and the heat just fried them. They shrivelled up to nothing. It was just so hot.""Apples were burnt on one side, little green apples. It's like someone took a torch to them."

"We might not be able to fill some bigger orders."

Tony Van Den Tillaart, co-founder, Fieldstone Organics, Armstrong, British Columbia

Western Canada's prairie provinces are seeing unprecedented soaring heat temperatures this year. On Hannah Konschuh's farm overlooking the Bow River, Canadian Prairie spring wheat yield has dwindled to 12 bushels an acre from its 2020 yield of 65 bushels an acre. Hard red spring wheat generally considered more drought-tolerant has succumbed to the drought and searing heat, as has the farm's barley, yielding 10 to 15 bushels per acre as compared to over 100 the year before.

Through Western Canada, from Vancouver Island to northwestern Ontario a stark picture has emerged out of Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada's Drought Monitor map where the three Prairie provinces are mottled brown, red, orange, tan and yellow; a sliding scale of abnormal lack of moisture. Harvest began seven to 14 days earlier as a result of the record-breaking temperatures and absent rain, explained Cereals Canada's director of market access and trade policy, Daniel Ramage, adding that the situation pertains right across North America.

The forecast is for 24 million tonnes of Canadian what production, a 32 percent decrease from 2020 according to the latest USDA estimate. Countries such as Russia and Kazakhstan have cut their production estimates as well in indication that lower yields in North America have also impacted the wheat growing season in those countries and for the same reasons. Bread prices are tentatively forecast to rise by up to 6.5 percent by year's end.

While harvest is underway, the full impact of the severe weather on quantity and quality of grain has not yet been fully determined since farmers in some areas fare well but in others harvest is anticipated to be as low as 50 percent normal. What is unique about this drought season is its widespread nature whereas in the past there were pockets of drought causing a drop in wheat quality but 80 percent would still be good, very good or excellent. The current situation reverses that, where in Alberta 80 percent of crops are now of lesser quality.

Some areas have been coping with drought effects while under wildfire evacuation alert. "These fires have just made it worse because you don't get the sunlight. It affects plants that are trying to ripen", explained Tony Van Den Tillaart of Armstrong, B.C. Some farmers in his area are harvesting 75 percent of what 2020 rendered, while others can manage only 50, 25 and others yet, ten percent of normal harvest. 

In Saskatoon, baker Bryn Rawlyk  has canvassed local farmers and each of them has been affected by drought; some have sufficient stock set aside from 2020 to meet his bakery's needs for the coming year, but his concerns centre on the drought conditions continuing. "Everyone's been on edge", he states. How will wheat grown in drought conditions and under heat stress perform for bakers -- another area of concern when local flour is prioritized.

 

Heat, wind, grasshoppers and very little rain have resulted in major production loss for Saskatchewan farmers. (Richard Agecoutay/CBC News)

"People in Saskatchewan are always once or twice removed from a farmer. Here in the Prairies, we're known as the breadbasket of North America. That's shown in the product, but also just the livelihoods of so many of the people, and the people connected with those activities and families and forums."

"We try to find different uses for it [drought-stressed wheat] within the bakery [baking flatbreads instead of aiming for a lofty loaf]."

"That's what I think is a nice thing about the dynamic nature of what we're allowed to do, and those skills as bakers in the bakery - of taking a product and being more nimble with it."

Bryn Rawlyk, The Night Oven, Saskatoon bakery

University of Saskatchewan Prof. John Pomeroy predicts more frequent and severe droughts in the Prairie region by the late 21st century. (Richard Agecoutay/CBC News)

"Some are projecting almost no harvest at all, or just enough to maybe replace the seed that they planted in the ground so they can get seed planted next summer. Some are harvesting about 25 percent of what they would typically expect The conditions are terrible."

"We will feel the effects in a few months when grain reserves start to really dwindle, and we're scrambling to find [grains] and we're probably paying much higher prices."

"The farmers are the people on those first lines. They see it every single day that there's no rain in the forecast, and it's awful to witness. But it's important to be connected to our food in that way."

"Because we're extremely committed to our farming suppliers and milling our own grain, we have to let the grain tell us how to make the bread."

"This is bad timing to be coming off of a really terrible harvest. But I hope it serves as an opportunity to help illustrate to people the challenges of growing food."

Janna Bishop, co-founder, CEO, Flourist, Vancouver mill and bakery