Sleep-Walkng Into Energy Dependency

"My input to [German] Ambassador [to Canada] Sabine Sparwasser [16 months earlier], was that approval of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline [bringing more natural gas from Russia] would put her country in a precarious position where a significant portion of their gas would arrive from one, potentially hostile foreign power. I raised the notion of 'moral hazard' and the potential outcomes to the economies of Europe if the worst was to unfold. From a national interest perspective, I pushed on the need to advance the supply of LNG from Canada. If Germany would become a committed buyer of our resource, it would advance development."

"Of course, while Russian gas from Nord Stream 2 would have been cheaper than LNG from Canada, the price would have been more than made up for by the security and reliability of purchasing from a trusted NATO ally."

"Although renewables constitute upward of 50 percent of Germany's power supply, at other times it is less than 2.0 percent. Other sources, such as nuclear and fossil fuels, are needed too ensure reliable baseload power."

"Despite hundreds of billions of euros spent on renewable energy Germany has become an energy-insecure nation."
Greg McLean, Member of Parliament for Calgary Centre, Conservative Shadow Minister for Natural Resources

Russia has cut the amount of the natural gas it sends to Europe by closing down a turbine on the Nord Stream 1 pipeline.  Getty Images

 

When Japan's Fukushima nuclear plant became a casualty after a powerful earthquake caused a tsunami destroying the installation, the world looked on in horror. Japan's geographical location is earthquake-prone. The nuclear station was built in an area vulnerable to tsunami action, and the part of the reactor that was flooded was built in a poor choice of location at the site. Japan is usually fastidious about details; on this occasion, not so much and the result was catastrophic.

The reaction in Europe, particularly in Germany and France was immediate; both planned to be less reliant on nuclear energy and to shutter their nuclear plants. The co-inventor of the Gaia theory, James Lovelock, died at an advanced age on July 27 2022 – his 103rd birthday.He and U.S. biologist Lynn Margolus theorized in the 1970s that Earth is a self-regulating system maintained by communities of living organisms which adjust oxygen and carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere, salinity in the ocean and the planet’s temperature within acceptable bounds to enable life to thrive.

 

And this brilliant man was an enthusiastic and knowable exponent of nuclear power as the most economical, reliable and cleanest energy source extraction, from the depths of his scientific knowledge. A source far preferable for so many reasons, among them dispelling the need to continue extracting fossil fuels from the subterranean levels of the planet. 

 

Led by the most prosperous country in Europe, Germany, Europeans trapped themselves into believing that becoming dependent on gas supplied from Russia brought with it a minor risk, that the Russian Federation could safely be viewed as a partner in a business enterprise, and not a political adversary. Above all, subscribing to the belief that the continent was no longer endangered by the prospect of conventional war. The first step of minimally importing Russian gas and oil led to an ever-increasing dependency to the point where Moscow has now, predictably used its position as a major source of energy to Europe, as a cudgel.

German politicians characterized the Nord Stream project pipeline as a "commercial project', absent a political context. Berlln had decided to shutter its nuclear energy sector, becoming ever more dependent on Russian sources of energy, helped along by the 2011 Fukushima disaster. Japan sits in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, Germany is located in the middle of the European continent. This does not require heavy thinking; it is the result of lazy thinking.

 

Pipes for the Nord Stream 2 Baltic Sea pipeline are stored on a site at the port of Mukran in Sassnitz, Germany, September 10, 2020. REUTERS/Hannibal Hanschke/File Photo

 

The illusion that after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia was just another country in Europe, prepared to accept the values and regulatory and international guidelines all other European nations lived by, lulled them all into a sense of complacency. Becoming indebted to Russia for critical energy sourcing allowed Moscow an upper hand at a time when sanctions were biting into the Russian economy while it was expending vast resources on its 'special military invasion' of Ukraine.

An aghast Europe flocked to the side of Ukraine, comforting the country with its concern for its future, offering to boost its military materiel, its economy, welcoming refugees and punishing the Kremlin with sanctions. The Kremlin looked sideways at its critics who failed to understand Moscow's need for security from the threat of fascism on its borders, and the responsibility President Vladimir Putin felt to rescue Ukrainians from the fascist grip of the neo-Nazis bringing this ruin on Ukraine by defying Russia's crusade to save the nation.

Germany failed to take Russia's annexation of Crimea seriously because it was just too awkwardly inconvenient at a time when gas and oil was filling a critical energy need in Europe and most particularly, Germany, the wealthiest, most powerful nation in Western Europe. Cringing before Moscow's illegal takeover of Crimea, by simply ignoring it. Leading Germany's Siemens to visit Moscow in the face of the "short-term turbulence" in their constructive relationship.

 

Nord Stream 1 supplies Germany with the majority of its gas from Russia   Reuters

 

The Trump administration threatened sanctions should Nord Stream 2 pipeline proceed, but Frank-Walter Steinmeier as foreign minister endorsed an "economic-political" partnership between Moscow and the European Union in Yekaterinburg, Russia. Vladimir Putin was given the message he looked for, the minor inconvenience of Crimea would disrupt nothing; time to proceed with annexing Ukraine's industrial heartland in the Donbas. 

Neither Georgia which had experienced two provincial annexations under conflict by Moscow, nor Ukraine were given pathways to membership into NATO because France and Germany felt it not to be a very good idea to wave a red flag at a raging bull they were doing business with in an economic-political union of energy convenience.

With President Obama's 'reset' with Moscow, central and eastern European statesmen penned an open letter with the declaration that: "Russia is back as a revisionist power pursuing a 19th century agenda with 21st century tactics and methods". How very visionary. How very surprising. Now look where we are. Do you see it?

The Best-Laid Plans Stumble Against Clumsy COVID Precautions

"We wake up to 15 emails, telling 14 of the kids they need to go get tested."

"The kids can't do it themselves, as they speak Arabic and Hebrew, but even crazier, there's no way to make an appointment."

Trip organizer

"These kids have seen some of the worst horrors in life."

"Instead of enjoying their time here they are forced to the unnecessary tests so this government can continue their COVID theatre."

"There was no science shared to test fully vaccinated travellers, no science shared to pause the testing, and no science shared about re-establishing the random testing."

"For cases like this it's truly a travesty."

Canadian Member of Parliament Melissa Lantsman

"What they've done is turn a minor inconvenience at the airport and turn it into a huge inconvenience that swallows your whole next day."

"It [the email instructing the randomly-chosen traveller they must arrange for COVID testing after arrival in Canada] doesn't really give you any information about how to pick up the kit, it just gives  you an address."

Charles Moscoe business traveller

Pearson Airport, Toronto

 

Canada's largest, busiest airport in its most populous city -- Pearson International, in Toronto -- has had more cancelled flights than any other airport anywhere in the world. It has been named as the worst post-COVID airport globally for its intractable COVID measures, a result of federal government mandates, with the lengthiest delays, along wth the most cancelled flights. People end up waiting full days for connectng flights, they sleep on the airport floors, luggage is lost, frustration  and helplessness is universal.

This, on top of an utterly personally intrusive and quite useless charade called ArriveCAN which must be registered online, giving information on passport, inoculations, state of health, destination, return, and other details. When returning to Canada from points abroad, Canada Border Agents either accept a printout of the completed online form or use it to check the online registration before a traveller is waved through.

A charitble group in Canada -- whose name has been withheld for fear of backlash or unwanted hostile attention in the current atmosphere prevailing in Canada of rampant antisemitism and anti-Israel sentiments fuelled by an active slander campaign by 'Palestinian rights' groups and their supporters -- arranged for 33 Israeli children, both Jewish and Arab who had been victims of trauma through exposure to terrorist attacks, to come to Canada as a group for a vacation.

This group of summer campers, all of them victims of terrorist violence, spent the first day of their sponsored trip to Canada trying to meet a deadline imposed for a COVID test. Their visit to Wonderland, and Niagara Falls, scheduled and paid for, had to be cancelled when close to half of the 33 were selected as candidates for random testing. The federal government's recently adjusted rules call for off-site random testing for international arrivals.

Anyone unfortunate enough to have been selected for random screening has until midnight of the day following receipt of the email notification to complete the tests. The children had been billeted all over the Greater Toronto Area with volunteer families. Organizers had no option but to drive to various areas around the sprawling city in an effort to assist the children in meeting the deadline.

The organizers helped the childen fill out paperwork and drove them to a LifeLabs location that agreed to test them all. All 33 of the child visitors had tested negative for COVID-19 before boarding their Air Canada flight from Tel Aviv to Toronto. Vaccinated international travellers arriving in Canada are susceptible to random testing requirements. In its original form, such randomly selected travellers were tested on-site at the airport.

 

In its newer iteration, the program informs randomly selected travellers by email shortly following arrival that arrangements to be tested off-site through official testing locations must be arranged. Failing to comply risks hefty fines. The situation has led to further headaches for returning travellers who now face a deadline for compliance, if selected.

The experience of Charlie Moscoe appears typical. On his way home from the airport he was notified by email of the requirement to arrange for a test. A choice was offered of either attending an Ontario LifeLabs location or to arrange for a test kit to be delivered to his home. He opted to order a testkit delivered to his home. A week later he is still awaiting its arrival, long past the mandatory testng time.

Giving him little choice but to take time off work to attempt to have the testing done at LifeLabs. 

Image via Getty

War Games in Russia? No Problem!

"A lot of troops and gear from the eastern MD [military district] have already been deployed, rotated, lost and killed in Ukraine since February, so this will be interesting to see what they can salvage."

Mathieu Boulegue, military specialist, London's Chatham House think-tank

 

"We draw your attention to the fact that only a part of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is involved in the special military operation [in Ukraine], the number of which is quite sufficient to fulfill all the tasks set by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief."

Russian Defence Ministry

"Taking counter-terrorism and stability maintenance as the mission scenario, the 'Zapad/Interaction2021' joint exercise will see Chinese and Russian troops jointly carrying out strikes against terrorist forces in mixed groups."

"The special operations forces of both sides will complete the task of seizing the high ground and trench in accordance with the pre-plan, and then carry out the task of penetrating the enemy in depth."

Chinese Military

 

"The Zapad-2021 joint strategic drills are a defensive exercise that reaffirms the course of the Republic of Belarus towards strengthening regional security and the commitment to allied obligations with the Russian Federation."

Chief, Belarusian General Staff and First Deputy Defense Minister Viktor Gulevich

A Russian service member is seen on a BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle during drills held by the armed forces of the Southern Military District at the Kadamovsky range in the Rostov region, Russia February 3, 2022. REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov

Russia's joint military exercises with Belarus and China last year was an enormous enterprise. These are annual events for the Russian Federation with its allies. The exercises took place both in the west and the east, a logistical stretch incorporating Russia's vast territory. Russia has now announced, that despite its focus on the war it brought to Ukraine and the fact that its troops are heavily mired down in eastern Ukraine, it will have no problem mounting military exercises in its Eastern theatre.

Strategic military exercises are scheduled to take place in Russia's east, starting next month according to the Russian defence ministry. It can deploy, the ministry said, thousands of miles from the Ukraine war with unattached troop personnel and advanced weaponry to stage its usual war games. Demonstrating its flexibility, and capacity in terms of troops and materiel, and above all the expense incurred to do so. 

 

Its economy is shaken, but not broken, and Russia is out to show it remains fully operational, financially whole and capable of doing several things at once, thank you very much.

 

Credit RUSI Royal United Services Institute

 

August 30 to September 5 is scheduled for the "Vostok" (East) exercises, the intention to deliver the message that Russia remains focused on defence of its entire territory, capable in the process in military terms of sustaining "business as usual". The five-month war in Ukraine is no constraint, completes the message. Negating, in essence, the heavy losses sustained in men and equipment in its Ukraine adventure.

Troops and military hardware were forwarded to Ukraine from the eastern military district where the war games are to be taking place. No problem. The defence ministry stressed its capacity to stage drills of this nature remains unaffected by Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine. The snail's pace of Moscow's takeover plans merely a temporary set-back, soon to be corrected. 

According to CIA Director William Burns, the U.S. estimation is that 15,000 Russian troops had died in Ukraine from February forward, representing as many personnel losses sustained by the Soviet army throughout a decade of war in Afghanistan from 1979, while three times that number may have been wounded.

 

Without clarifying from which countries, the exercises according to the Russian defence ministry will include some foreign forces. Part of Siberia is included in the eastern military district, with its headquarters in Khabarovsk, close by the Chinese border. There was close to 300,000 troops reported involved in the 2018 Vostok drills. 

There have been times in the past when relations between Russia and China have been distant and grim. There will be times in the future when relations between the two will go beyond strained. On Russia's side of the border between the two, there is sparse Russian population and a growing presence of Chinese spilling into the territory. While on the Chinese side the populated area is running out of room to expand. Inevitably that expansion will be crossing the border into Russia. 

And just as Russia has always played the game of sending their Russian ethnics to their neighbours' side and later grumbling that they face discrimination and Russia is prepared to 'defend' its ethnics, just as it has done in Georgia and in Ukraine, the tide will turn, with the much more populous China with a too-small territory, and a much-less populous Russia with an expansive territory coming to blows. 

 

For the present and for expedients' sake while both are under Western sanctions, China for exploiting and threatening Taiwan and Hong Kong, and Russia for its illegal crimes in Ukraine, they find comfort in one another's supportive renewed friendships.

 

Credit RUSI Royal United Services Institute

 

 

Russia -- At War With Ukraine -- and Europe

"Now the geography is different, it's far from being just the DPR and LPR  [Donetsk Peoples Republic/Luhansk Peoples Republic], it's also Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions and a number of other territories [beyond he Donbas which the Russian military has wholly or partially sized]."

"This process is continuing logically and persistently."

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov

 

"[Moscow is using a similar] playbook [to its takeover of Crimea, when it annexed the Ukrainian peninsula by organizing a sham referendum in 2014]."

"[I am] exposing [the Russian plans] so the world knows that any purported annexation is premeditated, illegal and illegitimate. [There will be a quick response from the U.S. and its allies]."

"[Areas targeted for annexation included Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Luhansk; regions Lavrov claims are now Russian objectives]."

US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby 

A Russian soldier stands guard in Kherson, Ukraine. Moscow’s war aims now extend to the southern provinces of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia  AP

 

As fortunes change in Russia's invasion of Ukraine, its original intention to march on Kyiv, occupy Ukraine's capital and decapitate its government failed as a result of Ukraine's lack of cooperation in allowing itself to return to the satellite status of years gone by under the Soviet Union. Ukrainian resistance proved too great, its military prowess too successful in destroying Russian war materiel and servicemen for the Kremlin to sustain, so its troops were withdrawn.

And a face-saving proclamation was made with proper pomp and little ceremony that Moscow's goal, after all, was to secure the entire Donbas, eastern Ukraine's industrial heartland, to be administered by ethnic Russian Ukrainian opponents of an independent Ukraine. Ukrainian resistance to Moscow's plans for its future continue to aggravate the Kremlin with its growing and successful counter-offensive. While all of Luhansk is now in Russian control, the Donetsk region remains elusive.

Yet Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov claims it's full steam ahead on the Kremlin's new strategy to widen its ambitions and expand the conflict beyond the Donbas. Russia responding to what Lavrov speaks of as the interference of Western powers who annoyingly continue to provide Kyiv with long-range weaponry like the US.-produced High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS).

US-supplied long range weapons have changed Moscow's calculus, Mr Lavrov says   Getty Images

 

Five months of Russian troops bashing Ukrainian towns and cities, reducing hospitals, schools and apartment buildings as well as military installations to rubble have failed to produce the unequivocal victory that Moscow claims is rightfully theirs as a defender of freedom from fascism of the people of Ukraine. A people that have ungratefully viewed the destruction of their nation's infrastructure with alarm and hatred toward the aggressor.

As punishment for Ukraine's steadfast defence against its neighbour's intentions, Moscow is looking further in preparation of formally annexing seized territory. Russia wanted "blood, not talks", commented Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba, commenting on Moscow's intransigence in insisting that fascists ruled Ukraine and it is Russia's duty as a good neighbour intent on securing its own security, to demolish cities, create millions of homeless and refugees and murder thousands of civilians.

This, as Russian President Vladimir Putin warns Europe that gas supplies via the Nord Stream 1 pipeline, shuttered for weeks for maintenance, remained at risk of an even more reduced flow; a classic case of turning the screw as a punishment for Europe's response sanctioning Russia over its illegal occupation of a third of Ukraine.

 

“Reichsadler” or “Imperial Eagle”, Nazi Symbol Reborn

"We understand and strongly agree that similarities to Nazi symbolism are unacceptable, although this design was based on the U.S. Army colonel's eagle wings."

"Stakeholder input has been and continues to be important to our schools." 

"[The new logo was chosen to] represent the eagle soaring into excellence and to honour the history of our great school."

Cobb County School District, Georgia

"I don't want to see my kids wearing that on their shirt."

"Really it's a big oversight at the county and everyone involved in the process who reviewed that, to not call out the fact that this looks like Nazi iconography."

"Or maybe, who knows, somebody did call it out and it wasn't heard."

Mike Albuquerque, father of two students, East Side Elementary

"I thought, 'That looks off. That makes me uncomfortable', and I came back to it a few times and I felt more uncomfortable and sick each time."

"My children are great-grandchildren of someone who fled the Nazi regime in Germany and survived the Holocaust."

Rabbi Amanda Flaks

"I want to see the logo not only taken away, I want a direct apology to our community."

"Not just the Jewish community, but the entire community."

Stacy Efrat, school student parent

 

The Jewish community in the Cobb County School District of Georgia in the southern United States got a bit of a shock recently when the board introduced a new logo for the Atlanta-area elementary school many of their children attended. Pursuant to the community shock over the new logo's striking similarity to an infamous Nazi symbol of World War II, area parents gathered their indignation and disbelief to convey to the board their disquietude over the presence of an iconography associated with the state-organized genocide of Jews during the Holocaust. 

The result of a parental delegation expressing stiff opposition to the introduction and use of the eagle logo, whatever its intention, whatever its inspiration, influenced the district board to halt distribution of the new eagle logo for Marietta's East Side Elementary School, particularly once its introduction drew the attention and condemnation of social media.

The Nazi eagle, designed in the 1920, later was representative of white supremacy, depicting an eagle with a swastika held firmly in its talons. The newly introduced school board logo depicts an eagle, the school's mascot, rampant over the school's initials; ES. This is the south-eastern U.S. state's second-largest school district. A delay in distributing the new logo was announced while simultaneously "immediately reviewing needed changes".

To further emphasize the extraordinary insensitivity of the new school logo, the school itself just happens to be situated directly across the street from a synagogue. The fascist war eagle, once highly valued as a Nazi icon, has more latterly been seen in use by neo-Fascist and neo-Nazi sympathizing groups. When Rabbi Flaks first saw the logo she was startled. She contacted the school over its prominent positioning eliciting an apology from the principal.

Earlier, two high schools in East Cobb were vandalized with swastika graffiti scribbled in bathrooms that prompted a community outcry.  Photos circulated of students at East Cobb Middle School wearing swastika armbands while giving the Nazi salute, on campus. Antisemitism has crept out from under the woodworks, making the inappropriateness of the eagle icon even more evident. 

Russia: As Duplicitous As Its Word

"In the seaport of Odesa sea-based  high precision long-range missiles destroyed a docked Ukrainian warship and a warehouse of Harpoon anti-ship missiles supplied by the United States to the Kyiv regime."

Russian Foreign Ministry

 

"Russia doesn't break its patterns of breaking agreements. Yes, I was hopeful, along with all those countries waiting for the grain [as per agreement signed by Moscow and Kyiv]."

"But no surprises from Moscow, just their usual terrorist aggressive behaviour."

Lesia Vasylenko, Ukrainian MP

Daily News Egypt

The very day following the Turkey-U.S.-brokered deal signed by both Kyiv and Moscow, to re-open Ukraine's Black Sea ports to the export of grain to alleviate an acute food shortage, saw Russian forces despite the pledge taken by the Kremlin via the signed agreement, bomb the Odesa port, the largest in Ukraine. On Friday, at the signing of the deal, there was euphoria; the world's largest exporters of food would resume shipments averting the threat of famine that millions could face, consequential to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.  

As a result of the five-month conflict following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, food prices globally have dramatically risen, as has energy. Russia had been left free to export its oils and grains, yet its complaint that its shipments abroad were under Western sanctions eschews responsibility. Moscow saw nothing amiss however, in blocking Ukraine from shipping its export-destination oils and grains, leaving parts of the Middle East and Africa on tenterhooks of food insecurity. 

 

A grain terminal at the port of Odesa on Saturday, after a string of explosions hit the city. Before the war, billions of dollars worth of grain was exported every year from the port to countries around the world.   Credit...Daniel Berehulak for The New York Times

Turkey had intervened, as the country whose control of straits leading into the Black Sea made it a logical player in Russia's game of food and energy blackmail. The Russian port strike came close to negating the practicality and release of the agreed-upon shipments of Ukrainian food to a waiting world following missiles fired at Ukraine's main Black Sea port. Russia's retort was that the missiles destroyed a warship and anti-ship missiles at Odesa, despite vows to lift the grain blockade.

The 'diplomatic breakthrough' the agreement portended, casually shifted aside by the Kremlin. Punishment for Ukraine's successes on the battlefield, for its surprise strengths in effecting a counter-offensive, in forcing Moscow to pay dearly for its wanton destruction of Ukrainian infrastructure, its direct bombing of hospitals, schools, its levelling of towns and villages, its violent disregard of people's lives, its responsibility in driving millions of civilians from their homes.

 

The Ukrainian military unsurprisingly had a different story than Moscow's, that missiles aside, preparations were to resume the shipping of grains globally. "We continue technical preparations for the launch of exports of agricultural products from our ports", stated Oleksandr Kubrakov, Ukrainian infrastructure minister, even as the Kremlin initially denied firing at Odesa. Around 15 percent of global grain supplies emanate from Ukraine.

 

Back in control of Snake Island following Russian troop withdrawal from the critically positioned control post guarding shipping lanes in the Black Sea along with the arrival of long-range artillery from the U.S. , Russia was placed in the uncomfortable position of having to negotiate to lift its blockade; a situation helped along by vigorous lobbying from African and Middle Eastern Kremlin allies influencing Moscow further. 

Egypt, set to be hugely impacted by the stoppage of grain shipments so hugely depended upon, hosted Russia's foreign minister Sergei Lavrov last week before he went on to tour Ethiopia, Uganda and the Congo Republic. The Russian state nuclear agency Rosatom is under contract to begin work on Egypt's first nuclear power station. To Egypt's government, Mr. Lavrov made it clear that the global shortage of grain was a result of sanctions imposed by the West.

"On the topic of food, the West must eliminate the problems it has created itself", he stated, stretching even the credulity of Russia's forgiving allies. Lifting Ukraine's ports blockade will benefit Russia as well as Ukraine, enabling the Kremlin to take in more proceeds from grain and fertilizer sales, all welcome to continue funding Russia's war on Ukraine. The gratitude Russia will receive from its allies in North Africa and the Middle East, more pluses for the Kremlin.

Russia hungers for good news to boost Moscow's morale. According to a Ukrainian official, by September Russian-occupied southern Kherson region will be back in Ukrainian control. Backed by sophisticated Western weapons newly received, including long-range HIMARs, Ukrainian forces are steadily defeating the Russian army in the region. 

"Kherson region will definitely be liberated by September. We can say that a turning point has occurred on the battlefield."

"We see that our armed forces are advancing openly."

"We can say that we are switching from defensive to counter-offensive actions."

Sergey Khlan, aide, Ukrainian head, Kherson region

The war's momentum has seen a turnaround with the arrival a month ago of HIMARs, allowing Ukraine now to hit Russian supply lines, command centres and allied infrastructure, resulting in widespread damage to Russian equipment and personnel. Before the advent of the longer-range missiles, Russian targets had been located too far behind the front lines to be susceptible to strikes. That has changed.

Residential buildings in Mykolaiv were damaged and officials said 12 people were wounded  STATE EMERGENCY SERVICE OF UKRAINE

Bienvenue, China's Billionaires

"These are clients who realize the chances of getting caught have increased dramatically -- to not a will but a when question."

"That group has now for the first time really contemplated 'I'm going to have to leave some day. There is definitely a wildfire'."

"We've been very busy since the beginning of the year."

"You want to prevent the problem [coming to Chinese authorities' attention as a potential threat to the governing body] and avoid the wildfire, as opposed to trying to put it out after your house is on fire."

"The thing to remember is that Canada is in competition for these Golden Geese and must present an opportunity which is competitive with all the other countries which are also trying to get this group [of mega-wealthy Chinese escaping crackdowns on 'ultra-high net-worth' individuals]."

David Lesperance, Immigration and Taxation lawyer, Poland

Helicopters carry Chinese flags over Hong Kong's Victoria Harbour on the 25th anniversary of the former British colony's handover to Chinese rule, July 1, 2022. There is a growing trend among China’s wealthy to move at least their money, if not themselves, out of the country. Photo by Paul Yeung/Reuters/File

In China of late, a growing urgency has arisen among high-net-worth Chinese, considering it is time to leave Hong Kong or mainland China before government attention lingers too long on their fortunes and their perceived activities. Business people based in the Peoples Republic of China have reason for concern with President Xi Jinping concentrating his power, eliminating opponents while tightening his grip on Hong Kong. One never knows when something quite innocent of intent to Beijing or give it reason to feel that being a billionaire has made one a competitive threat may draw attention.

 

How many of these five Chinese billionaires – who all pulled their money out of China – do you recognize? Photo: Weibo/WeChat/Reuters/Getty

 

The result of which is that a shared nervous tension among China's ultra-wealthy is driving them to seriously consider leaving China, with assets intact, for greener, more relaxed and welcome shores. Destinations of high popularity among this restless group include Australia, New Zealand, and a little geographically further afield, the United Kingdom, the United States, or Canada. Mr. Lesperance is a Canadian who has relocated to be closer to his growing client base, at a kind of cross-roads clearing-house.

He is increasingly being sought out by wealthy business people out of China and Hong Kong urgently intent on leaving the region. Those reaching out need professional assistance and Mr. Lesperance has the experience to help expedite their intentions. He has seen requests tripling in the last few years in lock step with Xi Jinping eliminating perceived threats to his longevity as undisputed ruler of China's 1.4 billion population.

 

Alibaba cofounder Jack Ma. (Photo by Wang HE/Getty Images)

China has not yet seen a mass exodus of its richest.That demographic represents 626 billionaires, a number of the world's wealthy second only to the 724 such Croesus's in the United States. There has been a trend of late among these wealthy Chinese to move their assets to Singapore through the city state's "family office" system. This is a situation not entirely fixed to China. In Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman set to rise to the throne, is giving concern to the ultra-wealthy there, too.

Since coming to power in 2012, President X has brought quite dramatic changes to China, leaving its business tycoons nervously trying to read tea leaves into the future. The extradition treaty proposal of 2019 to remove people from Hong Kong to the mainland to stand trial on espionage and other like charges created a reverberating watchfulness. The National Security Law has empowered authorities to imprison dissidents; among them media mogul Jimmy Lau, in the curbing of democracy.

High-tech sector Jack Ma, billionaire head of the Alibaba technology conglomerate's disappearance in 2020 after publicly criticizing Chinese regulators saw the IPO for his Ant Group suddenly axed. Mysterious disappearances of other wealth moguls amidst President Xi's announcement of a "common prosperity" program to see a more equitable spread of wealth across the entire Chinese population, placed the rich under anxious pressure. Some believe the underlying purpose of such campaigns is focused on eliminating rivals to Mr. Xi's power and control, and that of his Party.

Chen Mailin (left) made his fortune in duck farming before moving to Canada. Photo: Weibo

Beijing Bridling at Interference in Its 'Internal Affairs'

"[In all likelihood, China viewed Russia's invasion of Ukraine failing to gain its objective swiftly as] you don't achieve quick decisive victories with underwhelming force."

"Our sense is that it probably affects less the question of whether the Chinese leadership might choose some years down the road to use force to control Taiwan, but how and when they would do it."

"[The risks] become higher, it seems to us, the further into this decade that you get." 

"I suspect the lesson that the Chinese leadership and military are drawing is that you’ve got to amass overwhelming force if you’re going to contemplate that in the future."

"[China also has likely learned that it has to] control the information space [and] do everything you can to shore up your economy against the potential for sanctions."

William Burns, director, U.S. Central Intelligence Agency

President Tsai Ing-wen visits army reservists on exercises. The undertrained force has to be reformed to provide resilience against an attack by China  Ann Wang/Reuters

"[It would] severely undermine China's sovereignty and territorial integrity, gravely impact the foundation of China-U.S. relations and send a seriously wrong signal to Taiwan independence forces [should the United States continue to interfere in China's internal politics]."

Zhao Lijiant, spokesperson, Chinese Foreign Ministry

 

"[Beijing still prefers] peaceful reunification."

"[The US supports] independence [forces in Taiwan, where president Tsai Ing-wen has asserted the island’s separate identity]."

"No conflict and no war is the biggest consensus between China and the United States. [But the United States is] hollowing out and blurring [its stated policy of recognizing only Beijing]."

"Only by adhering strictly to the one-China policy, only by joining hands to constrain and oppose Taiwan independence, can we have a peaceful reunification."

Qin Gang, China’s ambassador to the United States

Taiwanese soldiers hold military drills in Taipei Credit: Ann Wang/Reuters

 China has been aggressively harassing Taipei, entering its air space as a warning that it is growing impatient with the island state's adamant refusal to rejoin the mainland. Beijing's ongoing efforts to isolate Taiwan on the world stage, refusing it recognition as a sovereign state, in the United Nations and in international diplomatic relations is just the initial step in its campaign to return Taiwan to China's tender care. Taiwan is alert to the imminence of an invasion.

The tension between mainland China and its breakaway republic is steadily increasing, thanks to China's more belligerent overtures. Now that Beijing has consolidated its premature hold over Hong Kong, Taiwan is next on its agenda. Xi Jinping makes no secret about his determination to bring Taiwan back into the fold, from its status as a defiant, breakaway republic. He did not hesitate to revoke Hong Kong's semi-autonomous status, despite a signed agreement that status would be in place for a fifty year period.

And nor will he allow world opinion and the censure along with an increased threat not only of economic sanctions imposed by the United States should Beijing move precipitously to regain what it feels it has unjustly lost, but the prospect of a wider conflict should the United States engage in supporting Taiwan with U.S. military intervention, as U.S. President Joe Biden recently asserted.

President Joe Biden, during a recent trip to Japan, told a reporter he was willing to use force to defend Taiwan  Eugene Hoshiko/Pool/EPA-EFE

 

 For Beijing and its president, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the goal somewhat similar in nature to Beijing's own, represents a test case whose prosecution and outcome presents as a lesson in what not to do for a successful and timely outcome in its plans for Taiwan. Moscow's 'strategic failure' is a lesson gained for Beijing, a primary observer directly related to its own, similar plans.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi - about as senior an American diplomatic presence as any next to the president himself -- plans to visit Taiwan in the coming month, despite that the U.S. military has cautioned her against such plans. Her original plan to visit Taipei in April was postponed when she tested positive for COVID-19. With news of her renewed intention to visit the region, stopping at Japan and Vietnam as well as Taiwan, Beijing has warned of 'repercussions'.

"We are indeed in the midst of very large-scale and thorough discussions both among ourselves and with the Americans right now about the things we need to do." 

"We are exploring a range of radically different ideas for making our country resilient, to build the features we need in wartime."

"Our goal is to be ready between 2025 and 2027 [for China's invasion and attempted occupation of Taiwan to secure 'reunification']."

Senior (unnamed) Taiwanese official

Taipei wants to retain military capabilities, such as its F-5 fighter jets, to counter Chinese incursions  Ritchie B Tongo/EPA-EFE

"It is true that the U.S.-China relationship is in a precarious and possibly dangerous place [given ongoing friction in bilateral ties and uncertainty related to China's domestic politics]."

\"I think that the United States should articulate a clear and consistent policy toward Taiwan and cross-strait issues."

"We have had a significant amount of confusion in U.S. policy that has led China to question what our intentions are."

Bonnie Glaser, director, Asia Programme, German Marshall Fund

The Kremlin's Rules of War

"[President Vladimir] Putin's goal is to unsettle, drive up prices divide society and to weaken support for Ukraine."

"We don't bow to it but counteract this with concentrated and consistent action."

"We take precautions so that we can get through the winter [storing up energy in the face of Moscow's weaponization of oil and gas in response to Western sanctions]."

German Economy Minister Robert Habeck

"Our assessment is, the Russians will find it increasingly difficult to supply men and materiel in the next few weeks."

"They will have to pause in some way and that will give the Ukrainians opportunities to strike back -- their morale is still high and they are starting to receive increasing amounts of good weaponry."

"To be honest, it will be an important reminder to the rest of Europe that this is a winnable campaign."

UK's MI5 head, Richard Moore

"We saw people drenched in blood. We saw people on fire."

"We helped with bringing the wounded to the subway. The smoke was very thick."

"There were many wounded on the street."

Khaibar Karimi, local entrepreneur, Kharkiv

Black smoke rises into the sky from Russian shelling of Kharkiv's Barabashovo market. (Sergey Bobok/AFP/Getty Images)

 

The Russian military does not deliberately strike civilian targets. It would never hit enclaves of civil infrastructure, towns, villages, city suburbs. Its goal is to engage with, to destroy, military emplacements, weapons depots, energy resources to counter Ukraine's aggression against Russian troops. We know this because the Kremlin tells this to the world critical of its decision to leave behind nothing but burning cinders where people once lived in Ukraine. 

Ukraine's second largest city Kharkiv, shelled for the past five months, remains an elusive goal for the Kremlin. Ukrainian nationalists are just so unaccommodating. Yet again it was struck, this time shells hit a crowded market. Leaving residents to stand about confused and disoriented as their world continues to fall apart, the marketplace suddenly bloodstained, people lying dead among the stalls.

 

Damage at a school destroyed by a Russian air bomb in Kharkiv. (Sergey Bobok/AFP/Getty Images)

 

The chief of the Kharkiv national police, Volodymyr Tymoshko, stated the obvious: no military targets are nearby. How the Russian military could have confused the issue is unknown. They are fatigued beyond endurance, resentful of Ukrainian determination to fight back, so there is no reluctance to follow orders to instill a little humility in the arrogant Ukrainians who believe they can counter the Russian military. Hit them hard, where they live and work, to drain them of the impression they can hold out forever.

Russian troops are exhausted from the combat their conflict with Ukraine brought them to, in finally taking Luhansk province. They've been ordered to focus all their energies now on Donetsk province. What energy? The front lines are frozen in fatigue. But they're moving forward to shell Donetsk in preparation for a new advance. After all, Vladimir Putin months ago proclaimed the Donbas to be Russian territory, to be left in the capable hands of its separatist proxies.

Britain's top spy states with confidence that intelligence indicates the Russian military is "running out of steam". A successful counter-strike by Ukrainian forces could yet set Russia on its back feet. It's what happened with the Kremlin's original intention to occupy Kyiv and neutralize the government. Until it ran into too many responding roadblocks and regrouped and withdrew claiming its real intention was the Donbas.

The United States, it would appear, is now prepared to send advanced fighter jets to Ukraine, another advantage on top of the long-range howitzers the Ukrainian military is making good use of, enraging Vladimir Putin by the West's meddlesome interference in what he planned to be an easy campaign of enter, occupy, expand.

A man in a wheelchair moves past rescue workers clearing the rubble of a building of the Kharkiv Regional Institute of Public Administration destroyed by Russian bombardment. (Sergey Bobok/AFP via Getty Images)

Trio of Territorial Terrorists

"[Russia and Iran need to remain vigilant against ] Western deception."

"[You/Putin ensured Russia] maintained its independence [from the United States; countries need to use their own national currencies when trading goods]."

"The U.S. dollar should be gradually taken off global trade, and this can be done gradually."

"If  you had not taken the initiative, the other side [the West], would have caused a war on its own initiative."

Islamic Republic of Iran Grand Ayatollah, Ali Khamenei

"Both our countries have good experience in countering terrorism and this has provided much security to our region."

"I hope your visit to Iran will increase co-operation between our two independent countries."

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan meet in Tehran, Iran July 19, 2022.  (photo credit: Turkish Presidential Press Office/Handout via REUTERS)

 

Like two powerful magnets the dictatorial leaders of the two countries had much to discuss, brought together by their common interests. Both seen as pariah states by the democratic Western nations of the world who deplore Russia for its war-mongering, its presence in Syria aiding and abetting Bashar al-Assad in his ideological/denominational war against his own citizens, and Vladimir Putin's decision to shed blood in Ukraine while destroying its infrastructure and creating millions of refugees there as in Syria.

The 'terrorists' that the Iranians speak of are not those whom they sponsor like Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Hezbollah, their Iranian-funded and armed militia-clients, but freedom-aspiring ordinary citizens of the country that was once on its way to achieving firmer alliances with the West. In consenting to unseat the Pahlavi dynasty, Persians had no idea that the stopper they pulled unleashing a theological genie would imprison their spirits and souls.

That they were joined by Turkey's Tayyip Erdogan, a controversial member of NATO, loathed by both Tehran and Moscow, illustrates just how manipulative, sinister, corrupt and Medieval politics can be in the Middle East. That all three leaders are pathologically invested in empire building to the extent that they are overlapping rivals who see common purpose in plotting against more powerful states interfering with their aspirations speaks of the realpolitik alliance of unsavoury intent.

Ukraine, Syria and Israel are in their crosshairs for the moment. All three are in fact at odds with one another, yet can find a common understanding in the grater goal of persevering against the travails their threats to world stability and abuse of human rights that have earned them sanctions, suspicion and arms-length diplomatic relations with the West. Hard pressed to achieve their goals, they find sudden unity of purpose.

Turkey's Erdogan anxious to play the deal-maker to convince Putin to open passage to grain shipments out of Ukraine's blockaded Black Sea ports to a grain-starved world. In exchange, Erdogan foresees a grateful world allowing him to increase his territorial holdings beyond the Syrian border while pounding resistant Kurds whose territory it is, within Syria.

Vladimir Putin is solidifying the Russian Federation's business ties in guaranteed oil and gas sales to China, and India so that beyond reduced shipments to the quavering European market heavily dependent on Russian energy, he is assured sufficient state income to continue prosecuting his war in Ukraine while garnering greater swaths of territory there.

Bellicose and threatening themselves, neither Turkey nor Russia see any reason why the Islamic Republic should not have a nuclear arsenal of its own. Tehran has done very well in drawing Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Qatar to its circle of intimates turning the minority Shiite strain of Islam into a power base to overwhelm the majority Sunni sect in the Arab-centric region of the Middle East. And with its own power bloc, Iran feels more comfortable viewing the threat it perceives from its regional opposition.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan meet in Tehran, Iran July 19, 2022. (credit: CEM OKSUZ/TURKISH PRESIDENTIAL PRESS OFFICE/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)

Instinctive Courage

 

"I shouted, 'Anybody here? Get out! Get out! Fire!

"I ran inside and looked under beds and closets, but I couldn't find her. But when I got to the stairs that led downstairs, I heard some faint crying."

"I rolled her up in my arm like a football, then felt my way back up the stairs. It was extremely hot and smoky, and it was painful to breathe."

"The only light I could see was coming from the rooms upstairs. So I headed up there."

Nicholas Bostic, passerby, Lafayette, Indiana

 

"His selflessness during this incident is inspiring."

"What he doesn't understand is his actions weren't ordinary, they were extraordinary."

"He went down those stairs to save that little girl when he thought it was impossible just moments before. He knew he was risking his life."

"There's only one way to define that; courageous and heroic."

Lt. Randy Sherer, Lafayette Police Department

The Barrett family, of Lafayette, Indiana, whose children were rescued from a house fire by passerby Nick Bostic  | Credit: Go Fund Me

 

Some people are imbued with that level of heroism, to react to emergency events instinctively and with determination to help extract others from dangerous, life-threatening situations. He did calculate his risk, knowing that he was submitting himself through his efforts to rescue a group of children, to the very danger he was anxious to prevent them from suffering. Nevertheless, he pushed on, knowing he must. Perhaps a fleeting argument passed through his mind that he had to live with himself.

A man who works for a pizza establishment, it was not any training as a first-responder that propelled him to action, but rather an inborn sense of responsibility to others drew him to commit himself to a dangerous venture. He was simply the proverbial right man at the right time in the right place to save the lives of five people ranging in age from an infant to an 18-year-old minding her younger siblings in their parents' temporary absence.

The young man, 25, a mere seven years older than the oldest person he led to safety from a raging house fire, was on a mundane mission; he was driving to fill up his vehicle at a gas station at the midnight hour. Then as he passed a two-storey house in Lafayette, Indiana, he realized there were flames licking the front of the house. He braked, turned around and drove into the driveway.

 

Nick Bostic endangered his life to save four children and their 18-year-old sister from fire (Nick Bostic/Facebook and GoFundMe)

 

He had forgotten his cellphone at home and was unable to dial 911. When he attempted to alert another driver he met with no success. Seeing and hearing nothing from the house he ran around to the back, found a door unlocked and rushed in, to be met with thick smoke. He spoke afterward of stinging eyes and nostrils. When he called out whether anyone was there, hoping to establish whether the house was occupied, there was silence, and he turned to leave.

As he did a teenager appeared at the top of the stairs and with her were three young children. The teen was 18, babysitting that July 10 for their absent parents, the three young children her siblings, along with another teen who was a family friend. The family's parents were out for a night of social relaxation. Selonna Barrett had been frantically waking up her charges after smelling smoke. Nicholas Bostic took charge of the situation, ushering everyone out of the house.

Then Selonna informed her rescuer that six-year-old Kaylani remained in the house. The staircase leading downstairs where he heard the crying when he re-entered the burning house was dense with smoke, the heat unbearable. He hesitated for a split second and then plunged down the stairs to search for the child. "I thought, 'I don't want to die here'" he recounted later. Holding his breath he followed the crying voice through complete darkness.

When he reached the child he scooped her into his arms hoping to return the same way he entered. But he was now upstairs and the staircase was suffused with thick smoke and nothing could be seen through the dark haze. He used his right fist to smash a window, wrapped the child next to his left side and leaped the two stories to the ground below.He fell onto his right side, the little girl was cushioned on his left side, by his body.

All of this took 15 minutes. And the  young man's quick thinking saved five lives. Selonna had called her parents and they rushed back home, arriving to discover their home aflame and the six-year-old  with minor injuries being treated by paramedics. Nicholas was sent by ambulance to hospital for treatment for smoke inhalation along with first-degree burns on his buttocks, right ankle and right arm. A neighbour had called 911, spurring firefighters' arrival.

Nick Bostic, center, and girlfriend Kara Lewis, left, with the Barrett family, whose children he saved from a house fire      Credit: Facebook