Dividing Up The World the Trump Way

"Commanding and extending spheres of influence appears to restore a fading sense of grandeur."

"[The leaders of the United States, Russia and China are all striving for] an imaginary past that was freer and more glorious."

Monica Duffy Toft, professor of International Politics, Tufts University 

 

"We don't talk about spheres of influence."

"The United States is an Indo-Pacific nation. We have relationships with Japan, South Korea, the Philippines."

"We're going to continue those relationships." 

"[Focusing on the Western Hemisphere is] critical to our national security and our national economic interests." 

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio

An illustration depicts William Pitt and Napoleon carving the world into spheres of influence. GL Archive/Alamy Stock Photo

 

American President Donald Trump revealed in mid-May that it was his intention to normalize commerce with Russia, beginning with decreasing pressure on Moscow to wind down its war with Ukraine. He has now also given second thoughts to the fallout evident from his global trade war, urging the leader of China to call him directly. "We all want to make deals", he has stated.

 

Leading to speculation among political pundits eager to make sense of Mr. Trump's on-again-off-again trade threats and taunts of annexing other nations to realize the American Destiny. His actions have led some to suggest he might be in the throes of envisioning a world where three great powers -- the United States, China and Russia -- dominate each their portion of the globe. A throwback to 19th-century imperial rule. 

 

Having stated his intention to consume Greenland, part of Denmark; to annex Canada to unite most of North America under American rule; and take back control of the Panama Canal, for strategic and military-security purposes, his alienation of former allies and trade partners has taken the world by a storm of bombast and uncertainty. Actions taken by Trump-observers as consonant with a desire to create a sphere of influence.

 

Russia and China could conceivably benefit from President Trump's stated intention to withdraw American troops from positions around the globe, even as he has criticized traditional U.S. allies and mused about abandoning NATO.  He has left the impression that catering to strong leaders is more to his liking than preserving conventional alliances. And in the process by diminishing an American presence in Europe and Asia, opening the door to those he most admires.

 

His praise of President Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping as strong, intelligent men with whom he is friendly has taken the world off guard. His attempts to formalize Russian control of portions of Ukrainian territory and in the process accessing Ukraine's mineral deposits for the United States comprise part of a potential peace agreement critics appraise as carving up Ukraine, with similarities to great powers in the age of empires. 

 

In 1884-85 at the Berlin Conference, European powers adopted a plan to carve up Africa, in their "spheres of influence". Bafflingly, with all this in the works, President Trump and his aides continue to exert greater U.S. influence from the Arctic Circle to South America's Patagonia region.  

 

There is ensuing confusion over intentions relating to regional alliances respecting the American president's warm relations with President Xi,leaving both Taiwanese and American officials musing whether Mr. Trump would choose to waver on U.S. arms support for Taiwan, mandated by a U.S. act of Congress.   

"China will not give up its stakes in the Western Hemisphere so easily."

"Beijing would love to have a grand bargain with the U.S. on spheres of influence."

"Its first and foremost focus will be on Taiwan." 

Yun Sun, analyst, Stimson Center, Washington  

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