War Games in Russia? No Problem!

"A lot of troops and gear from the eastern MD [military district] have already been deployed, rotated, lost and killed in Ukraine since February, so this will be interesting to see what they can salvage."

Mathieu Boulegue, military specialist, London's Chatham House think-tank

 

"We draw your attention to the fact that only a part of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation is involved in the special military operation [in Ukraine], the number of which is quite sufficient to fulfill all the tasks set by the Supreme Commander-in-Chief."

Russian Defence Ministry

"Taking counter-terrorism and stability maintenance as the mission scenario, the 'Zapad/Interaction2021' joint exercise will see Chinese and Russian troops jointly carrying out strikes against terrorist forces in mixed groups."

"The special operations forces of both sides will complete the task of seizing the high ground and trench in accordance with the pre-plan, and then carry out the task of penetrating the enemy in depth."

Chinese Military

 

"The Zapad-2021 joint strategic drills are a defensive exercise that reaffirms the course of the Republic of Belarus towards strengthening regional security and the commitment to allied obligations with the Russian Federation."

Chief, Belarusian General Staff and First Deputy Defense Minister Viktor Gulevich

A Russian service member is seen on a BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicle during drills held by the armed forces of the Southern Military District at the Kadamovsky range in the Rostov region, Russia February 3, 2022. REUTERS/Sergey Pivovarov

Russia's joint military exercises with Belarus and China last year was an enormous enterprise. These are annual events for the Russian Federation with its allies. The exercises took place both in the west and the east, a logistical stretch incorporating Russia's vast territory. Russia has now announced, that despite its focus on the war it brought to Ukraine and the fact that its troops are heavily mired down in eastern Ukraine, it will have no problem mounting military exercises in its Eastern theatre.

Strategic military exercises are scheduled to take place in Russia's east, starting next month according to the Russian defence ministry. It can deploy, the ministry said, thousands of miles from the Ukraine war with unattached troop personnel and advanced weaponry to stage its usual war games. Demonstrating its flexibility, and capacity in terms of troops and materiel, and above all the expense incurred to do so. 

 

Its economy is shaken, but not broken, and Russia is out to show it remains fully operational, financially whole and capable of doing several things at once, thank you very much.

 

Credit RUSI Royal United Services Institute

 

August 30 to September 5 is scheduled for the "Vostok" (East) exercises, the intention to deliver the message that Russia remains focused on defence of its entire territory, capable in the process in military terms of sustaining "business as usual". The five-month war in Ukraine is no constraint, completes the message. Negating, in essence, the heavy losses sustained in men and equipment in its Ukraine adventure.

Troops and military hardware were forwarded to Ukraine from the eastern military district where the war games are to be taking place. No problem. The defence ministry stressed its capacity to stage drills of this nature remains unaffected by Russia's "special military operation" in Ukraine. The snail's pace of Moscow's takeover plans merely a temporary set-back, soon to be corrected. 

According to CIA Director William Burns, the U.S. estimation is that 15,000 Russian troops had died in Ukraine from February forward, representing as many personnel losses sustained by the Soviet army throughout a decade of war in Afghanistan from 1979, while three times that number may have been wounded.

 

Without clarifying from which countries, the exercises according to the Russian defence ministry will include some foreign forces. Part of Siberia is included in the eastern military district, with its headquarters in Khabarovsk, close by the Chinese border. There was close to 300,000 troops reported involved in the 2018 Vostok drills. 

There have been times in the past when relations between Russia and China have been distant and grim. There will be times in the future when relations between the two will go beyond strained. On Russia's side of the border between the two, there is sparse Russian population and a growing presence of Chinese spilling into the territory. While on the Chinese side the populated area is running out of room to expand. Inevitably that expansion will be crossing the border into Russia. 

And just as Russia has always played the game of sending their Russian ethnics to their neighbours' side and later grumbling that they face discrimination and Russia is prepared to 'defend' its ethnics, just as it has done in Georgia and in Ukraine, the tide will turn, with the much more populous China with a too-small territory, and a much-less populous Russia with an expansive territory coming to blows. 

 

For the present and for expedients' sake while both are under Western sanctions, China for exploiting and threatening Taiwan and Hong Kong, and Russia for its illegal crimes in Ukraine, they find comfort in one another's supportive renewed friendships.

 

Credit RUSI Royal United Services Institute