Competing Sectarian Atrocities

"This is a war that is as much political as military, and the aftermath to any sort of tactical victory in Tikrit will be more important than the military victory." 
 "Because it is how Iraqi Sunnis are treated ... that is likely to determine a lot of attitudes, including the attitudes of many people in Mosul."
"We're a ways away, frankly, from knowing how effective the Iraqi forces will be, how unified they're going to be, and how well the Islamic State can hold together. Quite aside from the military issues, it's come under economic strain, it's having more problems with its volunteers, and it's having more problems providing services to the Sunnis that are within it."
Anthony Cordesman, military analyst, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington

Ahmad Al-Rubaye / AFP/Getty Images

Iraqi fighters of the government-controlled Popular Mobilisation units take part in a military operation to take control of Tikrit from Islamic State militants.

General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff stated at a Senate hearing that "there is no doubt" Iraqi government forces will succeed in taking Tikrit from the Islamic State militants. While White House Press Secretary Josh Earnest assured reporters that the White House is "pleased" that government forces were on the advance; studiously avoiding mentioning the tens of thousands of Shi'ite militias supporting the Iraqi military, also overlooked was Iran's steady ascendancy and command of Iraq.

"What we are watching carefully is whether the militias -- they call themselves the Popular Mobilization Forces -- whether, when they recapture lost territory, whether they engage in acts of retribution and ethnic cleansing. There's no indication that that is a widespread event at this point, but we're watching closely", General Dempsey noted in reflection of evidence from cellphone videos and photos of those Shia forces attaching severed heads to the front of Humvees; another photo of a lifeless body thrown over a tower, and another with a militant smilingly holding two severed heads.

Militias are leading the ground fight against Islamic State.
Photographer: AHMAD AL-RUBAYE/AFP/Getty Images

Though there was allusion to some complicating factors relating to reports that news has come out that some ISIS commanders had taken to executing fighters whom it appeared were prepared to defect; "an indication of the significant pressure that's being applied", explained Mr. Earnest, on the other side of the ledger. Likely the Sunnis whether they are members of ISIS actively fighting, or civilian residents of Tikrit would all like to decamp, to avoid direct contact with the invading Shias.

Whose penchant for bestial violence quite equals that of Islamic State. And who seem committed to the concept that they are on a vengeance mission. A mission for which they have been condemned by human rights groups and by the Iraqi-based Sunni religious body, the Muslim Scholars' Commission in Iraq which has cited the Shia combatants for burning Sunni property in the Albo Ujayl area near Tikrit; the evidence in videos showing homes and businesses being engulfed in fire while Shia fighters sing sectarian chants and cheer on the flames.

STR / EPA

An Iraqi tank advances into the south of Tikrit on March 9. Iraqi and Kurdish forces claimed advances against Islamic State.

The U.S.-led air coalition is nowhere to be seen in the proximity of this front. Not only because the Iraqi government chose not to invite them to take part, shrinking at the very thought of American warplanes giving cover to operations being directed by Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, commander of the powerful Revolutionary Guards Quds Force, and witnessing the aftermath of revenge attacks on the Tikrit Sunni population, an odious proposition even from afar.

This is a precursor to opposing the Islamic State caliphate ensconced in Mosul and Fallujah, two major Iraqi cities. But Iraq is counting on one hard-won victory leading to another. Not that the Iraqi military was ever capable of defending Iraqi soil on their own, despite years of U.S. mentoring-combat training readiness and billions-worth of state-of-the-art military equipment, most now in the appreciative hands of ISIS.

Iraqi armoured convoys had entered Alam on the outskirts of Tikrit to gain full control with the retreat of ISIS, enabling them to seal Tikrit off on all sides. Without the Shi'ite militias fighting alongside the Iraqi military, none of this would have been accomplished; they were as vital to the success of ousting ISIS as was the presence of the Quds Force and its formidable general. Basically guaranteeing that a bloodbath will follow of sectarian cleansing.

Islamic State will not slink readily into defeat. It has used snipers to good effect, and sprinkled IEDs liberally to slow down the Iraqi advance. In the capital of Sunni-dominated Anbar province over a dozen car bombs exploded simultaneously on Wednesday. Islamic State is boasting that it has used foreign fighters from Australia, Belgium, Syria, Uzbekistan and the Caucasus region in the series of attacks on Ramadi.


And ever more jihadist-inflamed fighters continue to flock to Islamic State from all points of the compass where Muslims have taken up residence in Western democracies, eager to respond to the irresistible public relations recruitment campaign so skilfully undertaken by ISIS who have used social electronic media to their huge advantage in this new world of eerie and atrocious warfare in which Islam has invested itself.

"The fighting is ongoing and I think it will take some days before the picture is clear. ISIS will not give up Tikrit so easily."
Hosyar Zebari, Iraqi deputy prime minister, Baghdad