The Middle East Affliction

Conflict has a way of infecting itself upon an afflicted region.  And what a region now threatens to implode, a very particular geography that throughout its history has always been on the verge of war, propelled by tribalism, by sectarianism, by viral hatred, suspicion, anger, betrayal and contempt.  In the Middle East, belligerence describes the prevailing social mood.  Threats resound in expressions of vicious regard between states forever on a collision course.

Ethnic longing for a geography of their own has the Middle East's Kurds, trapped inside borders of countries like Iran, Iraq, Syria, Turkey now suddenly taking advantage of an opportunity to unite and claim a place of their own because those who have held them firmly constrained within their national borders are otherwise engaged.  There is a limit to the effectiveness of battling insurrections on too many borders and the yearning of the Kurds may yet bring fruition to their dreams of Kurdistan.

And while they may succeed in carving out a geography of their own, forcing through their militancy and their urgency, the surrender of land for that purpose, there is another country that will be forced to gather all its resources to hold fast to the territory ceded to it by a United Nations mandate and the fiercely-fought wars of defence forced upon it by its surrounding enemies. 

Should Hezbollah, so well armed by Iran and Syria, decide to detract from Syria's slaughter of its own by attacking Israel there are others who will support that move.  Hamas, an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, has also devoted itself to the destruction of the State of Israel.  A many-pronged attack by well-provisioned militias supporting national militaries in a more up-to-date effort of removing a Jewish state from a Muslim enclave may appeal to the collective.

The Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, emboldened by the Arab Spring misfortune that brought their Egyptian brethren to power in Egypt, are now threatening the reign of Jordan's King Abdullah, to overturn the Hashemite Kingdom to reflect the greater Palestinian population.  Should that see success, the Western-aligned Jordan will cede to the need under the Islamists, to fling the decades-old peace with Israel back into Israel's face.

Egypt, being re-politicized by the Muslim Brotherhood, busy writing up a new constitution with the considerable assistance of the Egyptian Salafists, both of whom have gained a majority representation in Parliament, has also made throat-clearing harrumphs about re-visiting the historic Israel-Egypt peace agreement.  Which was never really much about peace, and far more about maintaining a no-war-for-the-present strategy.

Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the Gulf States have lost whatever love they had for Syria and Bashar al-Assad.  They do have some scruples when it comes to the mass butchery of Arabs, even those not of their sovereign rule.  The reported in-excess-of 30,000 deaths, most of them civilian lives, do not sit well with those neighbours.  And their own Shiite minority populations are taking inspiration from Iran's military interventions in Syria on behalf of the Alawite government.

Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey and Iraq have been absorbing tens of thousands of desperate Syrian refugees.  That mass migration of hundreds of thousands has complicated the geography of the Middle East even as it continues under constant bombardment by the war jets of the Syrian military.  The ethnic, sectarian, tribal and increasingly Islamist conflict, with al-Qaeda and Salafist overtones is overturning generations of placidity, leavened with suspicion, but tolerated.

Lebanon which has never recovered its former standard of tolerance between tribes and religious sects since its catastrophic revolution, and which has been handed off from Syria to Hezbollah, is facing increasing critical destabilization within its borders.  Should Hezbollah provoke Israel sufficiently, another Israeli invasion is conceivable.  Which would involve Iran and Syria, and in all likelihood Iraq as well.

The Middle East is now divided in its hatreds, with the Sunni-majority-and-ruling states in stiff opposition against the attempted hierarchical elevation of the Shia-minority-dominated states led by Iran.  Into this toxic mess Turkey has hauled an unwilling and dreadfully perturbed NATO, witnessing Russia's huge affront at the mere prospect of interference in Syria's affairs which would impact on Russia's interests.

While the United Nations fulminates and wrings its desperately impotent hands as is usual, China and Russia imperturbably refuse to unequivocally denounce either Syria or Iran; the former for its attack against its civil society in its bid to surmount its insurgency crisis, the latter for its obduracy regarding its nuclear program.  Iran's malevolent plans for nuclear warhead production and its relish of cyberwar activities match the ferocity of Syria's response to its revolution.

Lurking in the background everywhere these blemished states are transforming themselves are the forces of jihad-inspired Islamist fanatics who await their opportunity to slip into positions of influence through whatever means at their disposal, for they have the example of the Muslim Brotherhood, and will continue the greater Islamic revolution from that vantage point.