"In Iran's political psychology, two factors are traditionally essential for a fundamental transformation: first, the bazaar must enter into sustained strikes and protests; second, the army or national armed forces must side with the people against the ruling power."
"At this stage, the first condition has partially materialized."
"However, it remains unclear whether bazaar strikes will continue or fade."
"The large number of protesters killed by security forces demonstrates the continued allegiance of the armed forces to Khamenei and the IRGC."
Hussain Ehsani, research fellow, Turan Research Center, Washington think tank
"In 2009, it was still based on a disputed election. People were asking, Where is my vote?' They were still trying to operate within the framework of the Islamic Republic."
"Iran's regime was humiliated in the 12-day war. It no longer has the proxies it once relied on, so it can't project strength."
"It's far more financially squeezed, and the economy is in free fall. Donald Trump is in the White House and appears, at least rhetorically, to be taking a much tougher line on Iran's regime."
"That's what makes this protest more significant than those in the past."
"I think it really depends on U.S. involvement. If the U.S. gets involved, you could very well see the regime collapse."
"But if it's just ordinary people fighting, the regime may be able to hold on for another day. Still, these protests will flare up again. There's simply no doubt."
Kaveh Shahrooz, senior fellow, Macdonald-Laurier Institute, Ottawa
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| Pedestrians pass a burned-out building on Jan. 10, 2026, in Tehran, Iran, following widespread protests against the regime.
Stringer/Getty |
Twenty days have passed since protests first began in Iran, unremarkable at first and little-noticed outside the country, then when the protests spread from city to city, covering the entire country in hundreds of thousands, finally millions of Iranians out in the streets, damning their government, calling for its downfall, for the death of the Grand Ayatollah Khamenei, the government response changed as well, turning guns and live ammunition on those the regime called 'terrorists', inspired by foreign governments.
Over 3,500 civilian protesters were killed by some accounts, while other analysts claim a death toll in the tens of thousands, with greater numbers of protesters injured and hospitalized. Sparked initially by bazaaris (shopkeepers) in the main bazaar of Tehran considered the country's financial hub, demonstrations spread across major cities with demands of the protesters calling for an end to five decades of oppression under theocratic rule.
The price of basic food items increased in the space of three years, by 72 percent. Critical water and energy shortages compounded people's misery. Major cities ran out of electricity and gas. Iranians resented their government using billions in state funds to support their proxy militias, terrorist groups like Lebanon's Hezbollah, the Yemeni Houthis and Hamas in Gaza, while families in Iran struggled with food scarcity, a shortage of medications, cooking and heating oil.
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Iranians attend an anti-government protest in Tehran, Iran, Jan. 9, 2026. UGC via AP |
Following days of threats to strike Iran should authorities continue killing the protesters, the issue was taken to the UN Security Council for deliberation. While urging protesters to "take over your institutions", saying that "help is on its way", the impression was left that the powerful United States of America planned to come to the aid of the protesting public. The tension of guessing what form that help might take ranged from long-distance empathy to the commitment of military strikes.
From Iraq to Lebanon and Yemen, the IRGC special Quds Force orchestrated funding, training and equipping Shi'ite militant groups regionally, Hamas included. This past summer, decades of shadow warfare culminated in direct conflict in a 12-day war that saw Israel strike weapons depots, IRGC command posts, government buildings and eliminate a number of senior military and government figures. The U.S. flew warplanes equipped with bunker-penetrating bombs targeting Iran's nuclear installations. Iran both regionally and domestically was left reeling and diminished.
Earlier conflicts by Israel with Hamas, following the 7 October 2023 Palestinian terrorist incursion into southern Israel to commit mass atrocities, and with Hezbollah which joined Hamas in sending rockets into Israel, then finding itself engaged in battle, and Yemen with its ballistic missiles supplied by Iran entering Israel airspace and attacking marine traffic linked to Israel in the Red Sea, all engaged militarily with a responding Israel military to their hapless detriment. Leaving Tehran no dedicated outside terror proxy to call upon.
President Trump's intention to intervene in the regime crackdown on the protests as well as its execution of protesters was circumvented at the behest of Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Oman and Qatar, informing him that Iran had put a stop to the executions and the killing of protesters. The threat of U.S. intervention subsided. The regime instituted a total internet lockdown, along with a moratorium on texting, so no information came or went. And under lockdown executions continued, arrests and torture recommenced, and Iranians fled for safety to their homes.
The conditions for a prospective regime collapse, according to analysts, would depend largely on positions taken by the military and the national police; to ally with the protesters, or the government. Hopeful claims expressed by Iranian opposition groups in exile aside, no such scenario of police defections laying down their arms and the military supporting the protesters materialized.
"First is street protests, which we have, but the other two things we
don't have."
"Second is just the crippling of the economy through strikes,
most importantly, the oil sector."
"And third would be defections from
the security services, and we haven't seen that either."
Kaveh Shahrooz
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Bodies lie in body bags
on the ground outside Kahrizak Forensic Medical Centre in Tehran, Iran,
in these images from video obtained from social media, Jan. 11, 2026.
Social Media/via REUTERS
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Labels: Executions, Iranian Citizen Protests, Islamic Republic of Iran, Regime Crackdown, U.S. Intervention