Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Not Quite Going To Plan

"The occupiers cannot win on the battlefield, so they resort to the killing of civilians."

"After the enemy was dislodged from Snake Island, he decided to respond with the cynical shelling of civilian targets."

Ivan Bakanov, head, SBU, Ukraine security service

"These missiles, Kh-22, were designed to destroy aircraft carriers and other large warships, and the Russian army used them against an ordinary nine-storey building with ordinary civilian people [within it]."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

"[The Russian pullback from Snake Island bears] colossal psychological significance [for Ukraine]."

"Snake Island is key for controlling the Black Sea and could help cover the Russian attack if the Kremlin opted for an amphibian landing operation in Odesa or elsewhere in the region."

"Now, those plans are pushed back."

Oleh Zhdano, Ukrainian military analyst

Russia said it pulled out its forces from Ukraine's Snake Island as a 'goodwill gesture.' Ukraine’s military, however, said the Russians fled after relentless attacks by its forces.

 

At great cost, both to the aggressor and to the victim, Ukrainian resolve in responding in kind to the Russian military, using all means at their disposal to defend and push back the enemy invader. A choreograph that has provided a dramatic war theatre totally unexpected in the courage displayed by Ukrainians in their time of existential crisis while at the same time amply demonstrating the lack of military expertise and personnel coordination an invading military as well equipped as Russia's has the potential to encounter in its losses of senior military personnel and equipment.

The Kremlin, along with Vladimir Putin must be writhing in futile fury over the time, personnel and material being consumed by this ill-advised venture they so confidently launched. Not to mention how degraded their reputation has become throughout the international community as a viciously despised tyranny whose irenic display of territorial aggression has appalled the free world. The far-reaching effect of Russia's costly war in lives and infrastructure, has placed food dependent nations in a vulnerable position, awaiting a replacement source of grains and edible oils.

Russia is fuelling the cost of its misadventure with gas and oil sales to energy-hungry nations that have become energy-dependent on its natural resources. And despite Europe beginning to wean itself away from consuming Russian resources, China and India have stepped into the breach. The price of fuel has escalated thanks to the conflict, as has food products and Russia is the beneficiary of those higher prices. A conflict whose complications have embroiled not only Europe but the broader world community.

 

Ukrainian soldiers run for cover during an artillery duel between Ukrainian and Russian troops in Lysychansk. (Aris Messinis/AFP/Getty Images)

 

Yet another Russian airstrike on residential areas in Ukraine has once again demolished civic buildings and destroyed Ukrainian civilian lives. The small town of Serhilvka, relatively near Odeaa was hit by three missiles aimed at civilian areas and taken as representative of payback by the Kremlin for the humiliation of having to withdraw from the strategic Snake Island because of Ukrainian military bombardment against the Russian military stationed there.

Back in the initial stages of the invasion, the Russian navy took control of the island planning to use it as a stage for an eventual assault on Odesa, the largest port in Ukraine, and headquarters of its navy. From the start to the present, the Russian military has deliberately targeted civilian enclaves; hospitals, apartment buildings, schools, despite claiming it does no such thing. Kyiv and its regions were struck by Russian missiles again last weekend following calm after the Russian military retreat when plans to occupy Kyiv were foiled.

A shopping mall in the central city of Kremenchuk where scores of people died was also carried out last week. Russian forces continue their strategy in eastern Ukraine to encircle the city of Lysychansk representing the final stronghold of resistance in Luhansk, which beside Donetsk, make up the Donbas region. "The shelling of the city is very intensive. The occupiers are destroying one  house after another with heavy artillery and other weapons. Residents of Lysychansk are hiding in basements almost round the clock", advised Luhansk Governor Serhiy Haidal.

Buildings destroyed by a military strike are seen in Lysychansk. (Oleksandr Ratushniak/Reuters)

A Militarily Impeccable Perspective

"You should not swallow informational tranquilizers. The situation, frankly speaking, will get worse for us."

"We need to view one million well-armed Ukrainian soldiers as a reality for the coming months."

"The main thing in our business is have a sense of military-political realism; if you go beyond that then the reality of history will hit you so hard that you will not know what hit you."

"The main deficiency of our military-political position is that we are in full geopolitical solitude and -- however we don't want to admit it -- practically the whole world is against us -- and we need to get out of this situation."

"The desire to defend one's motherland in the sense that it exists in Ukraine -- it really does exist there and they intend to fight to the last."

Mikhail Khodaryonok, retired colonel, military analyst 

"Time is definitely working against the Russians. They're running out of equipment. They're running out of particularly advanced missiles."

"And, of course, the Ukrainians are getting stronger almost every day."

Neil Melvin, RUSI think-tank, London

Viewers on Russian state television were given a surprising message directly from a highly respected Russian military analyst: Russia hasn't seen anything yet; the war it launched in Ukraine is heading in a direction the Kremlin never envisioned and while things appear bleak at the present time, they will become much worse yet, for Russia. When the retired colonel delivered his message to a captive audience accustomed to Russian propaganda on Monday evening on the 60 Minutes talk show on Rossiya-1, its host Olga Skabeyeva, a pro-Kremlin television journalist, interrupted the military columnist for the gazeta.ru newspaper.

Khodaryonok was also a graduate of one of Russia's elite military academies, someone who stuck his neck out even before Vladimir Putin's 'special military operation' went into motion, cautioning against the advisability of propelling Russia into a hugely ill-advised conflict, warning that this would not work out to Russia's national interests. In  his obvious defence is the fact that thousands of people have been killed in this war which has displaced millions more. The fact is an indelible fear of a serious confrontation between Russia and the United States.

 

Military pundit Mikhail Kodaryonok told Russian television that Moscow's forces faced an uphill battle against Ukrainian troops in a rare moment of candor on Kremlin-backed TV. Above, Ukrainian soldiers ride in tanks near Bakhmut, Ukraine, on May 12, 2022, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. YASUYOSHI CHIBA/Getty Images

The swiftness with which consequences occurred to the present was the unity of the U.S.'s European allies and other states in condemning Russia's invasion and agreeing jointly on punitive sanctions, straining Russia's economy and making it an international outcast. Followed by Sweden and Finland deciding in their best interests to apply for membership in the U.S.led NATO military alliance. Fear that what has occurred to Ukraine may also threaten them in future led to Vladimir Putin's most feared scenario.

 

"Don't wave rockets in the direction of Finland for goodness sake -- it just looks rather funny", said Khodaryonok. While insisting that everything is "under control", Russian officials admit to the obvious; that their military operation is being prolonged, against all expectations. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov Tuesday stated that the invasion is "quite effective. The success of our military men is plain to see". Plainly emptily risible rhetoric. 

The most recent 'victory' celebrating Russian military strategic acumen -- the full control of Mariupol city -- or rather its ruins. If this is a victory it seems a fairly abject one, even if it leads to Russia now controlling the Black and Azov seas. For how long, after all...? Even having finally done so by battering the city beyond recognition and losing in the process a substantial number of their own servicemen, not to mention war munitions, its plan to conquer the entire eastern Donbas does not now look too secure.

Putin now faces a choice, whether to send in additional troops and military hardware replenishing his weakened forces in the face of modern Western weaponry giving greater heft to Ukraine's combat power. Other military analysts feel that the Russian invasion force faces unsustainable troop and equipmnt losses while hopes for success in their mission are narrowing. Western heavy guns, including M777 howitzers with longer range than Russia's equivalents look to give Ukraine an edge.

 

A destroyed Russian tank in Malaya Rohan, a village outside Kharkiv that was occupied by the Russians, on Tuesday.    Credit...Finbarr O'Reilly for The New York Times

"I think it's either going to be defeat with the current force position, or mobilize. I don't think there is any middle ground."

"The Ukrainians are starting to outrange the Russians. That means they are able to operate without the threat of counter-battery fire from the Russians."

"Right now, from what I can tell, Putin is just kicking the can down the road and letting the situation within the Russian military actually get worse."

"For now, this is looking like the Russians' last offensive."

Konrad Muzyka, director, Rochon consultancy, Poland-based