A Militarily Impeccable Perspective

"You should not swallow informational tranquilizers. The situation, frankly speaking, will get worse for us."

"We need to view one million well-armed Ukrainian soldiers as a reality for the coming months."

"The main thing in our business is have a sense of military-political realism; if you go beyond that then the reality of history will hit you so hard that you will not know what hit you."

"The main deficiency of our military-political position is that we are in full geopolitical solitude and -- however we don't want to admit it -- practically the whole world is against us -- and we need to get out of this situation."

"The desire to defend one's motherland in the sense that it exists in Ukraine -- it really does exist there and they intend to fight to the last."

Mikhail Khodaryonok, retired colonel, military analyst 

"Time is definitely working against the Russians. They're running out of equipment. They're running out of particularly advanced missiles."

"And, of course, the Ukrainians are getting stronger almost every day."

Neil Melvin, RUSI think-tank, London

Viewers on Russian state television were given a surprising message directly from a highly respected Russian military analyst: Russia hasn't seen anything yet; the war it launched in Ukraine is heading in a direction the Kremlin never envisioned and while things appear bleak at the present time, they will become much worse yet, for Russia. When the retired colonel delivered his message to a captive audience accustomed to Russian propaganda on Monday evening on the 60 Minutes talk show on Rossiya-1, its host Olga Skabeyeva, a pro-Kremlin television journalist, interrupted the military columnist for the gazeta.ru newspaper.

Khodaryonok was also a graduate of one of Russia's elite military academies, someone who stuck his neck out even before Vladimir Putin's 'special military operation' went into motion, cautioning against the advisability of propelling Russia into a hugely ill-advised conflict, warning that this would not work out to Russia's national interests. In  his obvious defence is the fact that thousands of people have been killed in this war which has displaced millions more. The fact is an indelible fear of a serious confrontation between Russia and the United States.

 

Military pundit Mikhail Kodaryonok told Russian television that Moscow's forces faced an uphill battle against Ukrainian troops in a rare moment of candor on Kremlin-backed TV. Above, Ukrainian soldiers ride in tanks near Bakhmut, Ukraine, on May 12, 2022, amid the Russian invasion of Ukraine. YASUYOSHI CHIBA/Getty Images

The swiftness with which consequences occurred to the present was the unity of the U.S.'s European allies and other states in condemning Russia's invasion and agreeing jointly on punitive sanctions, straining Russia's economy and making it an international outcast. Followed by Sweden and Finland deciding in their best interests to apply for membership in the U.S.led NATO military alliance. Fear that what has occurred to Ukraine may also threaten them in future led to Vladimir Putin's most feared scenario.

 

"Don't wave rockets in the direction of Finland for goodness sake -- it just looks rather funny", said Khodaryonok. While insisting that everything is "under control", Russian officials admit to the obvious; that their military operation is being prolonged, against all expectations. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov Tuesday stated that the invasion is "quite effective. The success of our military men is plain to see". Plainly emptily risible rhetoric. 

The most recent 'victory' celebrating Russian military strategic acumen -- the full control of Mariupol city -- or rather its ruins. If this is a victory it seems a fairly abject one, even if it leads to Russia now controlling the Black and Azov seas. For how long, after all...? Even having finally done so by battering the city beyond recognition and losing in the process a substantial number of their own servicemen, not to mention war munitions, its plan to conquer the entire eastern Donbas does not now look too secure.

Putin now faces a choice, whether to send in additional troops and military hardware replenishing his weakened forces in the face of modern Western weaponry giving greater heft to Ukraine's combat power. Other military analysts feel that the Russian invasion force faces unsustainable troop and equipmnt losses while hopes for success in their mission are narrowing. Western heavy guns, including M777 howitzers with longer range than Russia's equivalents look to give Ukraine an edge.

 

A destroyed Russian tank in Malaya Rohan, a village outside Kharkiv that was occupied by the Russians, on Tuesday.    Credit...Finbarr O'Reilly for The New York Times

"I think it's either going to be defeat with the current force position, or mobilize. I don't think there is any middle ground."

"The Ukrainians are starting to outrange the Russians. That means they are able to operate without the threat of counter-battery fire from the Russians."

"Right now, from what I can tell, Putin is just kicking the can down the road and letting the situation within the Russian military actually get worse."

"For now, this is looking like the Russians' last offensive."

Konrad Muzyka, director, Rochon consultancy, Poland-based