Cat and Mouse in Kherson

"The Ukrainians are not in a hurry. The intent is clearly to make it as difficult as possible for the Russians to hold their positions."

"The Russian theory of victory is to project force until the Ukrainians lose their strategic depth, which is their support from the US. and Europe."

"The Ukrainian theory of victory is that they degrade Russian forces until they are unable to fight."

Jack Watling. senior research fellow for land warfare, Royal United Services Institution, U.K. 

"Western arms shipments have bolstered Ukraine's potential, but they don't give it a decisive advantage."

"Ukraine can slow us down, but they can't do that forever."

Igor Korotchenko, head, Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade, Moscow

A Ukrainian artillery unit fires at a position in the Kharkiv region. The gains have been made while Moscow is focused on repelling Ukraine’s southern counter-offensive around Kherson    Ihor Thachev/AFP/Getty Images

Ukrainian forces, points out Mr. Korotchenko, are suffering major casualties in Kherson. It certainly doesn't seem so, although it's difficult to verify or squash the claim. Independent investigators cannot enter the fighting zone. The world at large must weigh the propaganda coming out of Moscow and Kyiv bearing in mind what can be verified, to sift through false messaging for the glimmer of fact.

 

Ukraine' counteroffensive is now a week old, a limited scale operation where the country's military is realizing some of its goals through early positive results. There has been confirmation that at least two villages have been recaptured by Ukraine, fairly well demolishing the Russian claims of Ukrainian push-back failure. Further, Russian-occupied Kherson authorities postponed a planned referendum on joining Russia due to a situation of 'security risks'.

The Ukrainian advance has matched the progress of Russia's widely derided intention on the eve of its invasion of Ukraine to speedily seize the eastern Donbas region, part of which Moscow had already annexed along with the conversion of Donetsk and Luhansk to independent 'republics' with firm links to Russia. Conquering the entire Donbas was to be seen as compensation for the Russian military's inability to swiftly enter Kyiv and dispatch its government.

The fighting personnel level of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is far more modest in comparison to the Russian military presence. In terms of ammunition and casualties, it is incurring lower costs with its measured advance. There is the targeted 40 to 50 km territory to retake, modest in comparison to hundreds of km in the Donbas. Ukrainian troops are engrossed in pinning the Russians against the Dnipro River 

Each of the protagonists are involved in disrupting the other's supply lines in hopes of achieving a situation where forces are drained of the means to fight. Longer range High Mobility Rocket Systems (HIMARS) supplied by the U.S. to interdict the flow of ammunition to Russia's huge artillery forces gives focus to the Ukraine mission. It requires making their way through Russian forces in Kherson, where reliance on a few damaged bridges over the Dnipro River is vulnerable to halting reinforcment and arms.

Russian heavy losses of troops and equipment has it focusing increasingly on implementing discord among financial and arms suppliers to Ukraine. Their goal is to stifle  Kyiv's intentions to continue fighting. The Kremlin relies heavily on the expectation that economic pain Europe is being hit with will erode its political support for Ukraine as recession hits and living costs soar.

Supplies of natural gas from Russia to Germany via the Nord Stream pipeline has been shut off, with the warning that it will be opened only if and when European nations drop their economic sanctions against Moscow. Moscow's downbeat mood reflecting battlefield progress reeks of lost morale. The calculation is that the stalemate between the two sides risks turning in Ukraine's favour while it builds up reserves and  acquires modern arms.

The Institute for the Study of War describes the Kherson counteroffensive as verifiably and "tangibly degrading Russian logistics and administrative capabilities in southern Ukraine". Kyiv has stated its intention of pushing Russia out of all its territory that comprises its internationally recognized border including Crimea, annexed by Moscow in 2014.

"F***ing HIMARS s**t. They are long-range and our tank was hit too....,"

"We already have 300's [wounded] here. They f***ed us up. Next to us were boys from Belogorsk, from the 165th Brigade."

"Shrapnel hit the big time, f**k...they laid under the tank, it hit the tank. Boys didn't have trenches or anything."

Russian soldier speaking to his wife; Ukraine-intercepted call

A Russian serviceman.This week, Ukrainian intelligence released audio of what was claimed to be an intercepted call of a Russian soldier allegedly telling his wife about the losses Russia has sustained in Ukraine's efforts to retake the southern Kherson region. KIRILL KUDRYAVTSEV/AFP/Getty Images