"Anything Can Happen"

"Israel now has a clear route to Iran and will likely continue to have one for the foreseeable future [rebuilding or replacing destroyed equipment could take years]."

"Iran was exposed already, and the October strikes proved that."

Gregory Brew, Iran analyst, Eurasia Group

"Hezbollah has lost the supply route coming through Syria at the current stage, but this is a small detail and may change with time."

"[Hezbollah is exploring other ways to rearm, possibly seeking an agreement under Syria's] new regime."

Naim Qassem, new Hezbollah leader

"[The public debate in Iran reflected] a perception that Iran needs to rectify a strategic imbalance with its adversaries."

"[The country's position] risks emboldening nuclear weapons advocates within Iran's decision-making apparatus."                                                                                      U.S. Intelligence Report

"The fingers of the Islamic Republic are being cut off and are getting weaker."

"The fall of Bashar al-Assad didn't only raise the hopes of the opposition but also raised the spirits of the Iranian nation."

Iranian opposition activist, eastern Iran

Israeli patrol vehicles cross the security fence in the Golan Heights near Majdal Shams, Dec. 12, 2024. Israel says its move into the military buffer zone is defensive and temporary.  Matias Delacroix/AP

 

The government of the Islamic Republic has become all too desperate about its rising vulnerability, alarm generated that stirs concerns its escalating conflict with Israel may enter a more dangerous phase shortly, with hard-line regime supporters speaking publicly and more frequently of adopting nuclear deterrence to thwart a potential Israeli attack. Among Iran's opposition, however, new hope has arisen that the descent of Iranian power may lead to a reduction at home of authoritarian rule.

Since the surprise lightning events of Syria's mass murdering Alawite regime's deposing by Islamist rebel groups taking advantage of a power vacuum courtesy of Israel's conflict with Hezbollah that has destroyed 80 percent of the Iranian proxy terror group's arms, and by extension weakening the Islamic Republic itself, seeing the abrupt departure of Iranian advisers from Syria and withdrawal of allied regional forces, Israel was given another opportunity to destroy huge stockpiles of Syrian military infrastructure.

 

A drone view shows sunken boats at the Mediterranean port of Latakia in northwest Syria, Dec. 11, 2024, after Israel said it struck and destroyed Syrian military equipment and facilities once rebels seized power.  Salaah Jeaar/Reuters

 

Warplanes, helicopters, weapons caches and the major portion of Syria's navy were destroyed by hundreds of Israeli airstrikes which Israel claims were launched to prevent the military equipment from being claimed by bands of  terrorists. Analysts, however feel the attacks were aimed at further weakening Iran, serving a critical double purpose. Tehran had installed military officials in Syria under Assad to prop up his regime and protect land routes used to advance weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

"Iran is always part of the picture. It was like a root canal", observed Yoram Schweitzer, former Israeli intelligence officer, referring to the bombing campaign. Schweitzer observed that Syria's former radar systems could provide Iran with early warning of Israeli attacks; its advanced Russian air defences were a "constraining factor" for Maneuverability by Israel in the area, Iran analyst Gregory Brew of the Eurasia Group added.

Israel had been engaged in a year's-long covert operation against Iranian assets in Syria, with over 100 airstrikes on Syrian territory since October 2023, carried out without public acknowledgement. At least 24 IRGC officers had been killed over the past 14 months in Syria, in strikes aimed at "gutting the middle of IRGC leadership, designed to get the structure to collapse in on itself", according to Behnam Ben Taleblu, director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington.

In October, Iran launched its second direct attack on Israel following  devastating hits on its Hezbollah ally. The Israeli strike that killed Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah was devastating both for Hezbollah and for the Islamic Republic. Three weeks into a ceasefire agreement with Israel, Hezbollah acknowledged that it had seen itself cut off from Iran. As a result of its losses Iranian authorities are now more openly discussing the possibility of developing nuclear weapons as a deterrent against attacks.

 

Iran increased its stockpile of highly enriched uranium since last year, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Researchers concluded that Iran would need one month to further refine that stockpile to weapons-grade fuel, in a report prepared by the Institute for Science and International Security. Ahmad Naderi, a hard-line member of Iran's parliament called for Iran to test "an atomic bomb".

The Biden White House had warned Israel against bombing nuclear or oil facilities in its October attack; even so Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is focused on capitalizing on gains against Hamas and Hezbollah, including facing off against Tehran more aggressively once the new American administration is in place. Mr. Netanyahu, addressing Iran and Hezbollah warned that Israel "will continue to act against you whenever necessary, in any arena and at any time". When asked in an interview of the prospect of war with Iran, incoming President Trump replied "anything can happen".

Israeli military vehicles patrol the security fence near the Alpha Line separating Israeli-controlled Golan Heights from Syria near the town of Majdal Shams, December 12, 2024. Matias Delacroix, AP

Islamist Terrorists as Liberators

"Anxiety about being thrown in one of Assad's notorious prisons created wide mistrust among Syrians."

"Assad nurtured this culture of fear to maintain control and crush political opposition."

Lina Khatib, associate fellow, Middle East and North Africa division, Chatham House 

"This happiness will not be completed until I can see my son out of prison and know where he is."

"I have been searching for him for two hours. He has been detained for 13 years."

"They took away so many of us. They [the Assad government] burned our hearts."

Bassam Masri, Damascus, Syria

A man holding nooses for hanging prisoners   AP 

To the world's astonishment and that of experts in the military and uprisings, it took a mere ten days for a coalition of Islamist terrorist groups calling themselves liberators to remove a murderous despot from power in Syria where Bashar al-Assad's family had ruled for over half a century, as an Alawite-Shiite minority governing a majority Sunni population. A populist uprising that began 13 years ago in protest against unequal sectarian treatment saw Assad respond with bombs and bullets and a full-scale insurgency resulted.

Assad fought the insurgents with chemical weapons and barrel bombs, and when it appeared as though his regime was weakening and the insurgents were gaining the upper hand, help came in the guise of Iran's IRGC and its proxy militia Hezbollah. When that wasn't enough to turn the tide, Vladimir Putin stepped in with his warplanes to lead the aerial assault bombing schools, markets and hospitals in the Sunni-majority areas of the country in exchange for a deep sea Mediterranean port and an airbase in Syria.

 

People stand outside the infamous Saydnaya military prison waiting to see their loved ones freed.  AP

 

With the taking of Syria's major cities and finally Damascus, as the Syrian military backed down and backed off, overwhelmed by the insurgent Islamist Sunni forces, they claimed to be regrouping outside the cities, their withdrawal from conflict deliberately planned to avoid civilian deaths (this, from a military sufficiently loyal to Assad to help him slaughter close to a half-million civilians throughout the civil war), the insurgents broke into prisons and the regime's security facilities, freeing political prisoners and the tens of thousands who disappeared throughout the duration of the conflict.

Videos began appearing on social media of prisoners racing about in celebration after their release; some barefoot, others  wearing scant clothing, shouting in an ecstasy of feeling liberated, on the discovery that the government of Bashar al-Assad had fallen. And little wonder, given their decade of incarceration in prisons where torture was systematic and where secret executions took place at over two dozen facilities operated by Syrian intelligence.

 

A man breaks the lock of a cell in Saydnaya military prison   AP

 

A Syrian military defector ("Caesar") smuggled out over 53,000 photographs in 2013 showing clear evidence of rampant torture, as well as disease and starvation, critical components of Syria's prison system. The common knowledge of the fearful security apparatus and the prison torture both isolated opponents of the regime, and instilled fear in the population. The Saydnaya military prison (the 'human slaughterhouse') saw women detainees, some housed there with their children, screaming in fear as men broke through their cell doors.

Human rights groups bore testimony that dozens of prisoners were executed weekly in this prison; the estimate being that  up to 13,000 Syrians had been killed there, between 2011 and 2016 alone. "Don't be afraid ... Bashar Assad has fallen! Why are you afraid?! one of the rebels asked as he guided streams of women out of their packed, tiny cells. Aleppo, Homs, Hama and Damascus saw prisoners freed over the past ten days. Families of detainees and the disappeared waited outside prisons hoping to see their loved ones evacuate.

Associated Press