"Anything Can Happen"

"Israel now has a clear route to Iran and will likely continue to have one for the foreseeable future [rebuilding or replacing destroyed equipment could take years]."

"Iran was exposed already, and the October strikes proved that."

Gregory Brew, Iran analyst, Eurasia Group

"Hezbollah has lost the supply route coming through Syria at the current stage, but this is a small detail and may change with time."

"[Hezbollah is exploring other ways to rearm, possibly seeking an agreement under Syria's] new regime."

Naim Qassem, new Hezbollah leader

"[The public debate in Iran reflected] a perception that Iran needs to rectify a strategic imbalance with its adversaries."

"[The country's position] risks emboldening nuclear weapons advocates within Iran's decision-making apparatus."                                                                                      U.S. Intelligence Report

"The fingers of the Islamic Republic are being cut off and are getting weaker."

"The fall of Bashar al-Assad didn't only raise the hopes of the opposition but also raised the spirits of the Iranian nation."

Iranian opposition activist, eastern Iran

Israeli patrol vehicles cross the security fence in the Golan Heights near Majdal Shams, Dec. 12, 2024. Israel says its move into the military buffer zone is defensive and temporary.  Matias Delacroix/AP

 

The government of the Islamic Republic has become all too desperate about its rising vulnerability, alarm generated that stirs concerns its escalating conflict with Israel may enter a more dangerous phase shortly, with hard-line regime supporters speaking publicly and more frequently of adopting nuclear deterrence to thwart a potential Israeli attack. Among Iran's opposition, however, new hope has arisen that the descent of Iranian power may lead to a reduction at home of authoritarian rule.

Since the surprise lightning events of Syria's mass murdering Alawite regime's deposing by Islamist rebel groups taking advantage of a power vacuum courtesy of Israel's conflict with Hezbollah that has destroyed 80 percent of the Iranian proxy terror group's arms, and by extension weakening the Islamic Republic itself, seeing the abrupt departure of Iranian advisers from Syria and withdrawal of allied regional forces, Israel was given another opportunity to destroy huge stockpiles of Syrian military infrastructure.

 

A drone view shows sunken boats at the Mediterranean port of Latakia in northwest Syria, Dec. 11, 2024, after Israel said it struck and destroyed Syrian military equipment and facilities once rebels seized power.  Salaah Jeaar/Reuters

 

Warplanes, helicopters, weapons caches and the major portion of Syria's navy were destroyed by hundreds of Israeli airstrikes which Israel claims were launched to prevent the military equipment from being claimed by bands of  terrorists. Analysts, however feel the attacks were aimed at further weakening Iran, serving a critical double purpose. Tehran had installed military officials in Syria under Assad to prop up his regime and protect land routes used to advance weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon.

"Iran is always part of the picture. It was like a root canal", observed Yoram Schweitzer, former Israeli intelligence officer, referring to the bombing campaign. Schweitzer observed that Syria's former radar systems could provide Iran with early warning of Israeli attacks; its advanced Russian air defences were a "constraining factor" for Maneuverability by Israel in the area, Iran analyst Gregory Brew of the Eurasia Group added.

Israel had been engaged in a year's-long covert operation against Iranian assets in Syria, with over 100 airstrikes on Syrian territory since October 2023, carried out without public acknowledgement. At least 24 IRGC officers had been killed over the past 14 months in Syria, in strikes aimed at "gutting the middle of IRGC leadership, designed to get the structure to collapse in on itself", according to Behnam Ben Taleblu, director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies in Washington.

In October, Iran launched its second direct attack on Israel following  devastating hits on its Hezbollah ally. The Israeli strike that killed Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah was devastating both for Hezbollah and for the Islamic Republic. Three weeks into a ceasefire agreement with Israel, Hezbollah acknowledged that it had seen itself cut off from Iran. As a result of its losses Iranian authorities are now more openly discussing the possibility of developing nuclear weapons as a deterrent against attacks.

 

Iran increased its stockpile of highly enriched uranium since last year, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency. Researchers concluded that Iran would need one month to further refine that stockpile to weapons-grade fuel, in a report prepared by the Institute for Science and International Security. Ahmad Naderi, a hard-line member of Iran's parliament called for Iran to test "an atomic bomb".

The Biden White House had warned Israel against bombing nuclear or oil facilities in its October attack; even so Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is focused on capitalizing on gains against Hamas and Hezbollah, including facing off against Tehran more aggressively once the new American administration is in place. Mr. Netanyahu, addressing Iran and Hezbollah warned that Israel "will continue to act against you whenever necessary, in any arena and at any time". When asked in an interview of the prospect of war with Iran, incoming President Trump replied "anything can happen".

Israeli military vehicles patrol the security fence near the Alpha Line separating Israeli-controlled Golan Heights from Syria near the town of Majdal Shams, December 12, 2024. Matias Delacroix, AP