The Imminence of Afghanistan's Civil War

"We want to make the Taliban realize that the only way forward is through negotiations. We do not want a war to break out."

"They [supporters and members of the newly-formed National Resistance Front of Afghanistan [NRF] want to defend, they want to fight, they want to resist against any totalitarian regime."

Ahmad Massoud, leader NRF

Ahmad Massoud, the son of resistance icon Ahmad Shah Massoud, founded the NRF   Reuters

"[We want to pursue peaceful negotiations, but] if this fails... then we're not going to accept any sort of aggression."

"[We have] thousands of forces ready for the resistance. However, we prefer to pursue peace and negotiations before any sort of war and conflict."

"The NRF believes that for lasting peace we have to address the underlying problems in Afghanistan. Afghanistan is a country made up of ethnic minorities, no one is a majority. It's a multicultural state, so it needs power sharing - a power-sharing deal where everyone sees themselves in power." 

"[Having one group dominating politics will lead to] internal warfare and the continuation of the current conflict."   

"We prefer peace, we prioritize peace and negotiations. If this fails - if we see that the other side is not sincere, if we see that the other side is trying to force itself on the rest of the country - then we're not going to accept any sort of aggression."  

"And we've proven ourselves, our track record in the past [40 years] has shown that no-one is able to conquer our region, especially the Panjshir Valley."   

"The Red Army, with its might, was unable to defeat us... I don't think any force right now in Afghanistan has the might of the Red Army. And the Taliban also 25 years ago... they tried to take over the valley and they failed, they faced a crushing defeat."

Ali Nazary, head, foreign relations, National Resistance Front of Afghanistan (NRF)

 

"There is the risk of a renewed civil war in Afghanistan."

"Of course, no one intends to interfere in these events."

"[The current situation poses] an additional danger and threats."

Dmitry Peskov, spokesman, Kremlin

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Taliban   peoplesgazette

Unlike President Ashraf Ghani who fled Afghanistan to avoid 'bloodletting" and taking with him over a hundred million in treasury and is now installed in Qatar, while promising to return at some date, his vice-president, Amrullah Saleh had pledged not to leave the country and he is now in Panjshir, an area northwest of the capital where the Taliban do not rule, held by a recently-formed resistance group by the son of the Afghan patriot who fought the Soviet invasion until it withdrew in 1989, then turned to opposing the Taliban when it ruled the country in the 1990s.

 

Under control of the NRF, founded by the son of the deceased champion of Afghanistan Ahmad Shah Massoud, the region stands firmly in opposition to the Taliban. Ahmad Massoud leading the movement he founded, is holding out the hope that the Islamist Taliban will agree to holding talks to hear out the position of the NRF in the interests of avoiding a civil war. It may be difficult to give credence to this faint hope, given the relentless advance of the Taliban and their quick and brutal disposal of any who oppose their control of the country.

Men opposed to Taliban totalitarian rule of the country have travelled to the region where the NRF boasts of forces comprised of parts of the country's regular army units and special forces along with local militia fighters. And although both spokesmen for the group spoke of avoiding conflict it seems highly unlikely that this will be possible. A widely distributed Taliban statement declared that hundreds of its fighters were on the march toward Panjshir after local state officials refused to hand it over "peacefully".

With the statement came a short video showing a column of trucks emblazoned with the identifying markers of the ousted national government, and the white Taliban flag in prominent view advancing along a highway toward Panjshir. Should Taliban forces, warns Massoud, attempt an invasion of the valley, his fighters were prepared to fight.  A Taliban official claimed an offensive was launched on Panjshir, but a Massoud aide revealed no signs the column had yet entered the narrow pass leading to the valley, and no reports of conflict.

 

The NRF says it wants to pursue peaceful negotiations before fighting   Reuters

 

The very presence of a narrow pass having to be negotiated by columns of fighters before access to the valley, conjures up pictures of a complete route of any invaders by opposition fighters alerted to their entrance by sentries, a classic pincer attack of an almost impregnable area, vigilant to the emerging presence of an enemy. There was indeed instances of forces opposing the takeover of the Taliban that took place recently.

In the northern province of Baghlan which borders Panjshir, anti-Taliban forces restored to themselves three districts -- an operation that Massoud claimed not to have himself organized but which had been carried out by local militia groups in reaction to "brutality" on the part of the Taliban, carried out in the area. Which itself speaks volumes of the potential for ongoing conflict flaming into an overall civil war that could possibly spell the end of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, despite its formidable reputation.

In calling for an inclusive, broad-based government in Kabul meant to represent all of the country's various ethnic groups, Massoud emphasized that the international community should forbear from recognizing a "totalitarian regime". His region leading the way, the examples of the war-torn country's past defence of its autonomy and traditional values can be seen in the presence of wrecked Soviet-era armoured vehicles still dotting the valley. 

Optimism never faltering, the practicality of an assumed force numbering some 6,000 fighters however determined and motivated they may be in defence of an Afghanistan freed from the shackles of the Taliban, Massoud speaks of the need for international support to enable his group to succeed in its mission, should large-scale conflict break out. And in view of the current withdrawal of some 51 foreign national troops anxious to finally leave the "Graveyard of Empires" after two decades of stalemate, how likely is that scenario?