Sobering Realities

"A total of 20 cruise missiles and drones were used in the attack. Drone wreckage discovered in Saudi Arabia shows that the Iranians are manufacturing and operating drones so advanced [with jet engines and significant stealth capabilities] that they do not lag behind Israeli capabilities in this field."
"Seventeen targets incurred a direct hit in this concentrated bombardment. Considering the 20 projectiles whose debris was found at the attack site, that's an 85-percent success rate, which indicates the very high capability and reliability of the technology that was used."
"[Photographs of the attack aftermath] show the precision that was achieved in the attack. Each one of the spherical gas tankers in the picture was hit in the center."
"The pictures also show that the strike precision was one meter ... The Iranians, or their proxies, showed that they can hit specific targets with great precision and from a distance of hundreds of kilometers."
"We [Israeli authorities] have to accept the fact that we are now vulnerable to such a strike."
"Dimona nuclear reactor should be halted. It has now been shown to be vulnerable, and the harm it could cause would likely exceed its benefits."
Uzi Even, chemistry professor, Tel Aviv University, founding scientist, Dimona nuclear reactor

(Above and at article top:) The military wing of the Gaza-based Islamic Jihad terror group releases a video threatening rocket attacks on the nuclear reactor in Dimona and other sensitive sites in Israel, May 4, 2019. (Screen grab)

The September 14 launch of 20 drones and cruise missiles at one of Saudi Arabia's vital Aramco oil fields and processing facilities followed on Iran's Republican Guard Corps speedboats harassing and taking into custody Gulf oil carriers as a response to Britain having earlier taken an Iranian oil tanker into custody in Gibraltar under the charge that it was attempting to bypass sanctions on delivering oil under an embargo by the EU, to Syria.

It's an incendiary, dangerous game that the two Middle East enemies play; Arab Sunni Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and Persian Shiite Islamic Republic of Iran, both jockeying for power; the Saudis to retain their preeminent position as Sunni Islam's guardian of the two most sacred sites in Islam, and the Iranian Ayatollahs intent on challenging the Saudis for influence and power in the Middle East. Iran's zest for accomplishing its nuclear aspirations have inspired foreboding in the Sunni Arab states.

At the same time, Iran's very public threats against the State of Israel, threatening its annihilation, has placed both Israel and its Sunni Arab neighbours, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates in recognition of a common enemy. The Arab Gulf states have taken comfort in the fact that as threatening to the stability of the Middle East and the continued ascendancy of the majority Sunnis Iran is, there is a countervailing military power capable of holding the balance and if need be, challenging Iran militarily.

Israel's well-earned reputation as a military powerhouse, a nuclear power, a country accustomed to fighting against uneven odds for survival, and a technologically advanced society capable of producing cutting-edge surveillance and self-protective defensive military devices to stop the aerial flight of missiles, has enabled it to finally make some headway in its efforts to convince its neighbours that it has a right to existence amongst them.

In the wake of the Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia's oil fields, mixed messages have arisen. On the one hand, Iran now claims that Saudi Arabia recently attacked one of its oil vessels in the Persian Gulf in obvious response to Iran's provocations, and on the other the two countries have begun, through intermediaries such as Pakistan and Qatar, to look into preliminary 'talks' to clear the air between them.

Should the two Middle East most powerful Islamic nations reach a level of 'understanding' to stand back from further confrontation, will that leave the newly-created relaxation of tensions between Israel and Saudi Arabia in the trash heap?

Certainly, for Saudi Arabia, the seamless attack by Iran, using advanced stealth technology to send the missiles low enough to evade radar pick-up by either the Saudis or the American forces stationed in defence of the Saudis, this has been a sobering event, another reality altogether highlighting its vulnerability to an enemy whose resources and technical attack advances have surprised everyone. And if Saudi Arabia is vulnerable, perhaps its inclination is to appease the threat.

A still image from a video obtained from social media showing smoke billowing at an Aramco facility in Abqaiq, Saudi Arabia, one of two oil processing centers struck by drones on Saturday. It was not clear how badly damaged the facilities were, but such strikes have the potential to disrupt world oil supplies.Credit via Reuters

In the same token, it has become clear that Iranian advances in precision rocketry represents a dire threat to Israel. Iran provides both terrorist Islamist groups, Hezbollah, its proxy militia in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza, with rockets. The early rockets were clumsy, unguided surface-to-surface rockets whose range was limited, but, crossing the border into Israel caused anguish and fear. Now the rockets Iran transfers to Hezbollah are precision-guided missiles capable of hitting specific targets.

Israel's ports, airports, power plants, nuclear reactor, factories, civil infrastructure, just about any targets that keep the country humming along are now under potential threat. Should Hezbollah at one end, and Hamas at the other, receive the signal from Iran which now also has military stations on the Syrian side of the Golan Heights, to coordinate deadly attacks, Israel's worst nightmares appear to be on the horizon. The stealth attacks over Syria on Iranian/Hezbollah weapons depots interrupting the transfer of rockets and other advanced weaponry were a stop-gap effort to mitigate the threat.

Now, Israeli security more than ever is compromised, surrounded by Iranian-linked emissaries of conquest and death. Messages to Iran that there will be unforeseeable repercussions of major impact on its own security and that of its supporters in Lebanon and Syria seem to fall on deaf ears. The venomous hatred of Israel by the Islamic Republic determined to expunge its presence entirely from the Middle East is certainly not amenable to threats of destructive retaliation.

The Iranian Ayatollahs and their IRCG commanders are so convinced that their nuclear and Israel-vanquishing aspirations have the divine support of a higher power, they simply slough off any credible threats that would make other adversaries think twice. Tehran can send its proxies and continue to claim that it is they, not it, responsible for the mayhem that Iran will inflict upon its enemies, but in attacking Israel they will find their miscalculations will cost them dearly.

Maj. Gen. Hossein Salami: "Today, with the grace and power of God and the wise leadership of your honor [Ayatollah Ali Khamenei], we have conquered major, key posts. The communication lines of the Islamic Revolution have become thousands of kilometers deep.

"The sidelining of America in the region’s security and political developments, the accelerated decline of the regime of [Western] domination, and the paralyzing of the ‘cobweb regimes’ that are on the verge of collapse indicate the waning of the evil regime of global arrogance, in the center of which lies America."

"Today, friends and enemies alike have realized that the deterrence capabilities of the revolution have almost reached their peak. Not only has the reputation of threat and power of the U.S. declined to a great extent, but the Zionist regime no longer poses a threat. In other words, not only is it incapable of any viable threat, but it knows that the smallest mistake on its part would be its last because any new war will erase that regime from the political geography of the world."

IRGC commanders (L2R) Hossein Salami, Ali Fadavi, Mohammad Pakpour and Amir Ali Hajizadeh on Fitr Prayer in Tehran on June 26, 2017