The Best-Laid Plans Going Awry

"The Iraqi theatre of operations is dynamic and requires deliberate, responsible reflection. As is the case for any Canadian Armed Forces operation, our contributions are constantly under assessment in order to ensure all appropriate strategic and tactical steps are taken."
"The program to provide equipment and small arms [to the Kurdish Peshmerga] is no different."
"[Canada] has a responsibility to ensure any such aid is provided under the right conditions. We will continue to monitor the situation on the ground and exercise strategic prudence."
Dan Le Bouthillier, Department of National Defence spokesman

"Given the fluidity of the current situation, Canada's Special Operations Task Force has temporarily suspended the provision of assistance to various elements of Iraqi security Forces."
"Once more clarity exists regarding the interrelationships of Iraqi security forces, and the key priorities and tasks going forward, the Task Force will resume activities."
"In the interim, they will continue to monitor the situation and plan for the next potential phases of operational activity."
"Only the provision of assistance to various elements of Iraqi security forces has been temporarily suspended."
Col. Jay Janzen, Canadian Forces spokesman

An Iraqi soldier removes a Kurdish flag from Altun Kupri on the outskirts of Irbil, Iraq, on Oct. 20. Iraqi federal and Kurdish forces have exchanged fire over the past two weeks, following the disputed vote for an independent Kurdistan. (Emad Matti/Associated Press)

With those announcements Canada has chosen to suspend assistance its special forces provided to Iraqi security forces in the face of Iraqi and Kurdish forces at battle with one another. Canadian assistance was geared toward aiding both Iraqi military and the Kurdish Peshmerga fight the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant terrorist group, to recapture territory they had assumed for their Islamist 'caliphate', and to oust the terrorist jihadist group from the country.

The Canadian commandos dispatched to work with the Kurds, along with assistance given to the Iraqis is now in suspension. Awaiting 'clarification', in the wake of the Iraqi government ordering its military alongside Shiite militias with links to Iran, to assume national control of Kirkuk and the Kirkuk oil fields, as well as a military base that had been occupied by the Peshmerga with the intention of including Kirkuk and the oil fields in a newly independent Kurdistan. It was the Kurds who had, after all, wrested the valuable territory from ISIL.

The same Kurds who had made no secret of their intention, once ISIL was defeated, to declare independence, to finally establish Kurdistan as a sovereign state no longer dependent on the whims and control of a government whose predecessors had persecuted the large Kurdish population in the country's north, bringing death and destruction, gassing villagers, destroying farms and towns courtesy of Saddam Hussein.

The Kurdish leaders held a referendum that their supporters asked be held off, with then-President Barzani announcing his intention to hold talks with Iraqi government officials to come to an agreement with respect to Kurdish independence. An issue that Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi spurned, deploying his military in combat with the Peshmerga, and with superior forces and arms negotiated by Iran, forced the Kurds to withdraw from defence of Kirkuk once their ammunition gave out.

With the Iraqi military's offensive against Kurdish fighters at the border with Turkey and Syria underway the intention to close off the Kurdistan vital trading route was clear enough; with the border crossing falling into Iraq's control U.S.-led coalition forces would also be affected, losing access to allies in Syria engaged in battling ISIL.

As for the weapons that Canada meant to supply to Kurdish troops, that plan has always been dependent on the central government, for Iraq's willingness to transfer the weapons to the Peshmerga. In recognizing the government of Iraq's national position, all such weapons were to be delivered to the government on the agreement they would be transferred to the Kurds. Under current conditions that plan has fallen through with the Iraqi government certain to withhold approval.

"There is no easy path out of this mess", remarked defence analyst Martin Shadwick, recognizing the bind Canada is caught in, promising the Kurds weapons, yet since Kurdistan remains part of Iraq, it would be internationally illegal to move forward to provide arms without the approval of Baghdad. Kurdish leaders openly stated their intention to create an independent state, that the arms they received were to be used in the fight against ISIL, but also eventually, to defend their independent state.

The provision of .50-calibre sniper rifles with silencers, 60mm mortars, anti-tank Carl Gustav systems, grenade launchers, pistols, carbines, thermal binoculars, cameras, scopes and medical supplies are now held in abeyance. With the Department of National Defence in Ottawa confirming the arms shipments must remain under review.

Kurdish protesters hold banners during a demonstration against the violence by Iraqi, Iranian, and Shia militias on Kurdistan, in Brussels on Oct. 25. (Stephanie Lecocq/EPA-EFE)