Divisions, Conflictions in Crimea

"Ukraine is a chessboard and the big powers are playing on it. I really do not understand this situation. It is strange and incomprehensible to me. I have always felt like a citizen of Ukraine and the situation here was good. But now everybody is acting for themselves. If Crimea separates I will go to live with my mother on the Ukrainian mainland."
Middle-aged Lesya (last name withheld), Yalta, Ukraine

"I think we should remain in Ukraine because over time it will be better for us. A lot of people here have families in Russia, so they want Russian passports, but all I see is that it will be bad either way."
"I don't want anyone to die, but I fear there will be violence. There can be some kind of provocation and the trouble will start."
Retired Soviet aviation official, Alexander (last name withheld), Yalta, Ukraine

A billboard in the Black Sea port city warns Crimean voters that they should reject fascists who fought against the Soviet Union in WWII and those who follow the Nazi swastika or the extreme right wing Sektor Right when they vote to stay with Ukraine or join Russia in a referendum on March 16. (Matthew Fisher/Postmedia News)

Very few Ukrainian flags now fly anywhere in the Crimean peninsula. But there are ample numbers of Russian flags; they stream everywhere in the wind, even on municipal buses, propaganda ahead of the Sunday referendum asking whether Crimea should remain with Ukraine in its autonomous status or break away entirely and become one with Russia.

In the past ten days an increasing number of Russian troops have taken possession of Ukrainian installations. Russian warships surround Ukraine's small naval fleet in Crimean ports. Crimean locals are faithful to Russia in coercive numbers, defying international opinion on the issue, let alone Kyiv's agony of helplessness in the situation, facing what for them is a foreign enemy threatening their unity.

Posters and billboards have popped up in the last day or so praising Russia and condemning Ukraine's 'fascist' new government. One billboard has side-by-side maps posted, one of them draped in a Nazi swastika, the other covered by the Russian flag. "God Bless the Russian way", reads a huge sign in front of a Crimean biker gang's headquarters on the road between Yalta and Sevastopol.

"Russia is Where We are", reads hoarding, urging voters to reject fascism and Ukraine's ultra right wing "Right Sektor". Russian, or perhaps Crimean authorities have banned flights from the Ukrainian mainland, while flights from Russia continue to land and take off in Crimea. Vehicle searches by pro-Russian vigilantes are more aggressive on the roads into and out of Sevastopol and Simferopol.

Reports have emerged in Russian media that large, threatening masses of pro-western Ukrainians were marching to Crimea prepared to fight. No one, in reality, has seen any such manifestation of confrontation emerging on the tense scene between Kyiv and Moscow. While Crimea's future, integrated with Russia has massive support, that of Yalta is less in question.

Questions emerge like: What happens to taxes, pensions, citizenship, passports, property rights, bookkeeping practices, Ukrainian money, the Ukrainian time zone, food, water and electricity now almost all coming from the Ukrainian mainland. Well, a purported bridge between the peninsula and Russia will settle part of that.

But it is questionable how much Russia really wants to absorb Crimea into its geography; more likely it is that they enjoy and value the fealty, but want Crimea to be independent, while dependent on Russia, and at arms'-length politically, socially, ethnically from Ukraine.