A Fine Balance

"This report gives President Obama everything he needs in order to block this project. It makes it clear that it will contribute, under any scenario where we take climate change seriously, it will contribute significantly to climate change.
"This is the gut-check moment and the State Department, though it has been biased and corrupt throughout this process, has had to concede a certain amount to reality today."
Bill McKibben, climate change activist group 350.org

Thousands of protestors gather at the National Mall in Washington calling on President Barack Obama to reject the Keystone XL oil pipeline from Canada, as well as act to limit carbon pollution from power plants and move beyond coal and natural gas, Sunday, Feb. 17, 2013. (Photo: AP)

"Since the beginning of the assessment, the oil industry has had a direct pipeline into the agency. Perhaps most frustrating is the apparent collusion between the State Department, oil industry and the Canadian government.
"The State Department is issuing this report amid an ongoing investigation into conflicts of interest, and lying, by its contractor."
Erich Pica, president, Friends of the Earth

"I stress that this is only one factor in a determination that will weigh many other factors as well. And for Secretary Kerry climate and environmental priorities will of course be part of his decision making, as will a range of other issues.
"[The ES (environmental impact study) is] "not a decision. It is another step in the process.
"Basically this document has a tremendous amount of analysis. But it is only a part of what we have to look at to make this decision."
Marie Harf, U.S. State Department deputy spokesperson

Eight government agencies have up to 90 days from February 5 to arrive at a response to the study, while the general public has 30 days. The cost of the pipeline construction is set to total about $3.1-billion, and another $233-million to be spent on construction camps. The construction process would create about 42,000 temporary jobs across the United States, 16,00 of them direct jobs to companies awarded goods and services contracts.

Although about 3,900 jobs would be direct construction employment, only 35 permanent, along with 15 temporary jobs would be created in the final analysis, once construction has been completed and the pipeline is in operation. About $55.6-million in property taxes would be generated annually in the United States.

Canadian Natural Resources Minister Joe Oliver stressed that the report "confirmed that Keystone XL would not have a significant environmental impact ... including no appreciable impact on greenhouse gases." "Oilsands are going to expand anyway", and the pipeline's capacity is already "sold out", commented Russ Girling, president and CEO of Keystone owner TransCanada.

Reiterating that the report concludes that the pipeline will have a "minimal impact" on the environment and will not impact climate change; no increase in greenhouse gas emissions would result from the pipeline being built, since their development is in any event, assured.

Which leaves the sensitive issue of possible pipeline spills effectively contaminating underground aquifers. But the study addresses that issue considering that spills "are expected to be rare and relatively small." Stating additionally that greenhouse gas emissions from pipeline operations "are deemed minimal relative to the proposed project." What the study appears not to address or seek to analyze is the effect of the pipeline on climate change.

Both sides in the issue claim validation for their positions. And support for each of those positions can be readily read in the study, it is elastic enough for interpretation on both sides of the issue. The question is how will Secretary of State Kerry read it, and how will he convey his impression to President Obama, through whom the buck of decision-making stops, the result resting on his own very particular interpretation.

The environmental lobby appears hysterically excitable and demandingly aggressive, spouting accusations right, left and centre, making the oil-patch lobby seem exceedingly reasonable by comparison.