And The Mystery Perpetrator?

"Putin has been suspected of murdering people since 2000."

"After the arrest of [exiled tycoon Mikhail] Khordokovksy, the assassination of [ex-FSB officer Alexander] Litvinenko, the use of Novichok against [double agent] Sergei Skripal — only idiots would think that they're safe. [The taking down of a private jet will bring the Russian elite even closer to heel]."

"They have nowhere to go. They're terribly afraid for their own lives, their families, fortunes, and so on."

Kirill Shamiev, political scientist, visiting fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations

If any event was predictable, this was, given the astonishing number of Russians falling out of favour with Russian President Vladimir Putin; those who criticize him, those uncertain whether he is worthy of their loyalty, those who look elsewhere for the authority they can believe in and retain their self-respect. Businessmen, oligarchs, heads of government institutions, academics, opposition politicians, critical journalists, erstwhile friends and supporters have been given ample rewards for straying from the fold. 'Suicides', sharpshooter-headshots, poisoning, strangulation, hanging, falling out of windows, all and any methods of assigning penalties of a final nature to the deserving.

 

Wagner Group founder Yevgeny Prigozhin. Lev Borodin / TASS

"Multiple individuals have changed their name to Yevgeniy Prigozhin, as part of his efforts to obfuscate his travels."

"Let's not be surprised if he pops up shortly in a new video from Africa."

Keir Giles, Russia expert, Chatham House think-tank

"Of course it's Putin."

"Putin as a leaddr cannot afford to be humiliated in the way that he was. Putin functions on two things: Loyalty above talent ... and the consequences of betrayal."

"The FSB remains loyal to Putin."

Unnamed Russian interior intelligence source

"[News of Prigozhin's death was] unsurprising."

"Most people will jump to the conclusion that this isn't an accident."

Sir Richard Dearlove, former head, MI-6, Britain

Ukrainska Pravda

 

Russian mercenary leader of the Wagner Group, the most 'successful' fighting force out of Russia, with its international presence in African war scenes and it's more recent militia action in Ukraine including its very public incendiary disagreements with the leaders of the Russian military is no more. That was a forgone conclusion from the moment back in June when he suddenly brought  his troops back over the border into Russia to begin a march on the Kremlin, determined for a showdown with the Russian military elite.

 

The founder of the private military company known as Wagner -- a longtime personal friend of President Vladimir Putin who admitted in the tense days of the approach of the militia to Moscow that he had orchestrated the funding through state funds of the group -- stated that his complaints of military ineptitude in the prosecution of the war against Ukraine, and the criminal neglect of support at critical times of his group by the military that withheld badly needed weaponry was never against his friend Putin.

Ostorozhno Novosti/via REUTERS

Footage of the crash site of a plane linked to Wagner Chief Yevgeny Prigozhin, near Kuzhenkino, Tver region, Russia, August 23, 2023 

 

But of course, it was Vladimir Putin's dirty little war, and his decisions and orders that were being played out in Ukraine, and any criticism of his elite military commanders implicated the president fundamentally. So that betrayal of Putin's trust in the frangible psyche of a man given to urgent outbursts and irrational decision-making was unforgivable, consequences outstanding and just biding time. That Prigozhin was given leeway to absent himself to Belarus from whence he could have decamped to safety, yet chose instead to return to Russia bespeaks an astonishing lack of awareness.

That brief, surprising, embarrassing armed rebellion spelled the instigator's death knell, and he was a dead man walking for months while those around him wondered when and how the issue would play out, knowing it was inevitable, while he remained seemingly oblivious. Until a plane carrying three pilots and seven passengers en route from Moscow to St.Petersburg mysteriously corkscrewed out of the sky missing a wing. 

A succession of events, one the dismissal of the Russian General who was head of the Russian Airforce, a colleague of Prigozhin's and possibly a co-conspirator as well, unable to deflect suspicion which led to his disappearance from public view. His penalty is not yet finalized, but 300 kilometres distant from Moscow the crash that killed all aboard spelled the final chapter in the Wagner Group chief's story. Russia's civil aviation regulator reported his name on the manifest, and in the Zaporizhzhia region of Ukraine, Wagner commanders confirmed their chief had been aboard the plane along with his top associate, Dmitry Utkin. 

"We have seen the reports. If confirmed, no one should be surprised", commented Adrienne Watson, U.S. National Security Council spokeswoman. The Associated Press flight tracking data indicated a private jet previously used by Prigozhin took off from Moscow Wednesday evening and minutes later its transponder signal went silent while the plane was at altitude and travelling at speed. An image posted by a social media account linked to Wagner showed burning wreckage, a partial tail number identifying the jet.

 

Wreckage at the crash site of the Embraer Legacy jet. Russian Investigative Committee

Other videos shared by the pro-Wagner Telegram channel Grey Zone show a plane dropping from a large cloud of smoke, wildly twisting as it falls. A frame-by-frame analysis by the Associated Press of two videos are consistent with an explosion of some kind in mid-flight. The images also indicate a missing wing on the plane. The Russian investigation is in good hands; Russia's Investigative Committee is investigating the crash on the charges of 'violation of air safety rules'.

British security sources on the other hand, believe the private jet had been shot down by the FSB intelligence agency, Vladimir Putin's old Alma Mater -- and, of course on orders of President Putin. "All the mood music, all the habits, all the history point to the FSB", commented one Russian inside source. Just incidentally this very week Prigozhin had posted his first recruitment video since the mutiny, that Wagner is conducting reconnaissance and search activities, "Making Russia even greater on all continents, and Africa even more free".

"[Prigozhin was a] talented businessman [who had significant achievements in his professional life]."

"He was a man with a difficult fate. He made some serious mistakes in his life."

"… He achieved the needed results both for himself and for a joint effort that I had asked him about during the last months [Prigozhin’s support for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the capture of the eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut earlier this year]."

Russian President Vladimir Putin

Putin at the celebration of Soviet victory in the Battle of Kursk, shortly after Prigozhin's plane crashed. Gavriil Grigorov / TASS

Overworked Propaganda

"Since the USSR's collapse, Russian intelligence has degraded to the extent that the only way to redeem itself after "Salisbury" and 'three-day plans' is to photoshop and fake leaks."

"[The documents represent yet another Kremlin disinformation effort, and the Russian army will see the real plans on the ground soon."

Mikhailo Podolyak, adviser to Volodymyr Zelenskyy

"[The five documents, marked [top secret] gave away valuable intelligence ahead of Ukraine's spring counteroffensive.]"

"[Representing a] first breakthrough for Russian intelligence."

"In particular, there were graphs of the expected supply of weapons, the number of troops and the consumption of ammunition."

Telegram channel with links to FSB security services

The documents include detailed accounts of the training being provided to Ukraine by foreign powers  Reuters

That "top secret" American battlefield intelligence was leaked and appeared on Russian social media has caused the Pentagon to open an investigation. Clearly the U.S. is less than pleased that Russian propagandists are gloating over a trove of documents that fell into their hands, detailing Western assistance meant for Ukraine. Kyiv, on the other hand, insists the information is entirely fake.

 

In Mikhailo Podolyak's opinion referring to the 2018 poisoning of a Kremlin critic in Salisbury England along with his daughter, and the Kremlin's failed aspiration to complete its capture of Ukraine within three days, their bark is bigger than their bite. He was responding to a Telegram channel with links to Russia's FSB boasting of a breakthrough in insider intelligence alerting Moscow to highly secure U.S.-Ukraine secret military details.

 

Dated between February 23 and March 1, the documents reflected training schedules and locations for Ukrainian and Russian military units and artillery guns along the front line. Also purportedly revealed, estimates of timelines of when muddy spring conditions in southern and eastern Ukraine would suffcently dry to enable swift tank advances on Russian positions.

 

Ukrainian soldiers fire a German howitzer Panzerhaubitze 2000   Reuters

 

Twitter users were quick to notice that the photos of the documents published by Russian Telegram channels seem to have been altered. The original social media posts showed the documents listing 43,500 Russian soldiers and 17,500 Ukrainian soldiers had died in the 13 months since the start of the invasion. It was noted that later the statistics were altered to show 17,500 Russian troop losses compared to 71,500 Ukrainians.

The documents, according to Podolyak, were more Kremlin disinformation efforts. The Russian army, he said, "will see the real plans on the ground soon", although the Pentagon stated it was taking the leaks seriously. Deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh at the Pentagon, said "We are aware of the reports of social media posts and the department is reviewing the matter.".

Along the front line, Ukraine has been building up forces all year, not disclosing where or when it plans to begin its counteroffensive. German media was informd by the U.S. secretary of state Antony Blinken that he expected the counteroffensive to begin in "coming weeks".  Location of the counterattack has specuattion focused on the occupied town of Melitopol, south of the Dnipro river, the southern front line.

Following disclosure of the leak, Reuters has reviewed more than 50 documents labelled "Secret" and "Top Secret" that first appeared last month on social media websites, beginning with Discord and 4Chan. While some of the documents were posted weeks ago, their existence was first reported Friday by the New York Times.