The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Grinds On

"[The Ukrainian government is a] terrorist organization."

"We must blow up their houses and houses of their relatives, search and eliminate their accomplices."

Dmitry Medvedev, deputy head, Russian Security Council

 

"The peninsula is used by the Russians as a large logistical hub for moving forces and assets deep into the territory of Ukraine."

"Of course, any logistical problems are additional complications for the occupiers."

Andriy Yusov, a spokesperson for Ukraine's military intelligence department

 

"Russia will only have one ground supply line — the coastal highway on the Sea of Azov — to sustain [or evacuate] its tens of thousands of troops in occupied Kherson and Crimea if UKR manages to degrade/destroy the bridge."

George Barros, analyst, Washington-based Institute for the Study of War

 

"We are not afraid. We were approached by companies that own ships."

"They said that they are ready, if Ukraine gives it['s assent], and Turkey continues to let it through, then everyone is ready to continue supplying grain." 

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

Russian investigators and emergency services members gather near a destroyed car on the damaged section of a road following an alleged attack on the bridge that connects the Russian mainland with the Crimean peninsula across the Kerch Strait. (Investigative Committee of Russia/Reuters)

What could possibly be more risibly ironic than a regime that unaccountably amassed its military on the border of a neighbouring country -- then gave the order to advance and invade and occupy that country and in the process bomb its towns and cities, its civilian infrastructure including schools and markets and hospitals and shopping centers -- calling the invaded country struggling to regain its own traditional territory, a 'terrorist' regime. Sanctimony on steroids.

But then of course, there is the prior example of Syria's Bashar al-Assad who chose to bomb and poison his own population in a sectarian/tribal conflict where the majority Sunni Syrian population asked for equal treatment with the minority Shia population, earning the description of 'terrorists' when they fought back against a government that sent its war planes to strafe their markets and bomb their hospitals. Which just incidentally, Russia in support of the regime's Alawites, sent its warplanes on bombing missions against the Sunni Syrians as well.

Practise runs, actually for Russia's decision to invade and attempt to destroy Ukraine. The rehearsal went far more smoothly than the command performance which the Kremlin felt should take but a few weeks to achieve the purpose designed, to increase the geographic holdings of the Russian Federation. Now, for the second time, in the occupied Ukrainian Crimean Peninsula the bridge that Moscow built as a supply route from Russia to Ukraine has been targeted for a disruption in its service to the Russian military.

 

Another view shows damage to the Kerch Bridge connecting the Russian mainland and Crimean peninsula over the Kerch Strait. (Ostorozhno Novosti/The Associated Press)

 

For the second time in the space of a year the Kerch bridge has seen vehicle traffic come to a standstill. The impact of two maritime drones designed for major damage to the bridge succeeded in temporarily halting rail traffic across the 19-kilomtre bridge span. According to Ukrainian Security Service spokesman Artem Degtyarenko, how the "bang" was organized would be revealed by his agency once Kyiv has sent the Russian military packing back across the border, bringing the war to its ignominious end for the Russian army.

In October of 2022 when a truck bomb blew up two of the sections of the bridge there were months of repair before the bridge was operational. That assault was, as far as Moscow was concerned, an act of terrorism that merited retaliation that kept much of Ukraine freezing in the dark with Russia's bombarding of the country's civilian infrastructure to target the country's power grid over-winter. Proving the true meaning of terrorism in Moscow's pursuit of committing war crimes.

Russian crews were shown via video picking up debris from the deck of the bridge where a section was sloping to one side. Authorities were inspecting the damage on the way to determining how long repairs to the bridge would take. The $3.6 billion bridge, the longest in Europe, is critical for resupply of Russia's military operations in southern Ukraine. Occasional sabotage and other attacks against the Russian military has been launched ever since Russia expanded its military forces in Crimea.

Hours after the attack on the bridge, Russia announced its plans to delink from cooperation permitting the export of Ukrainian grain to countries in Africa, the Middle East and Asia during the war. At the same time saying that decision bore no relation to the bridge attack. Dmitry Peskov speaking for the Kremlin, announced the Black Sea Grain Initiative would be suspended until Russia's demands for its own food and fertilizer are met to feed world demand.

Yet even while Moscow complains restrictions on shipping and insurance have hampered its agricultural exports, record amounts of wheat have been shipped out since last year "When the part of the Black Sea deal related to Russia is implemented", Peskov said, "Russia will immediately return to the implementation of the deal." Marking the end of an accord brokered by Turkey and the UN last summer, allowing food to leave the Black Sea region in the face of a global food crisis.

As major global suppliers of wheat, barley, sunflower oil and other food products relied upon by developing nations, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has had a hugely deleterious effect on food scarcity and high prices, seeing more people pushed into poverty. Even without Russian safety assurances, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy stated his intention to keep the initiative of shipping out Ukraine's food products, in full operation. 

A grain ship in the port of Chornomorsk on Ukraine's Black Sea coast  Istock

 

 

 

Russia's Fraught Position in Crimea

"[The fleet has been in an] extremely defensive posture [in the waters off Crimea, barely venturing beyond the coast]."

"[The Russian fleet’s] limited effectiveness undermines Russia’s overall invasion strategy."

"This means Ukraine can divert resources to press Russian ground forces elsewhere."

British Defence Ministry

 

"I certainly agree with the Russian ministry for defense, which is predicting more incidents of this kind in the next two, three months."

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak

 

"[The explosives could have a number of causes, including incompetence] But they all mean the same thing -- the destruction of the occupiers' logistics, their ammunition, military and other equipment, and command posts -- saves the lives of our people."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

A view showing the Black Sea Fleet's headquarters following a a reported combat drone attack in Sevastopol, Crimea, July 31, 2022.  Reuters

 

Although Ukraine has refrained from officially taking responsibility (credit) for the mysterious blasts that have hit behind Russian lines in occupied Crimea, the obvious capability of Ukraine to strike deeper into Russian-occupied territory with some type of weapon or through sabotage reflects a shift in the conflict. Warplanes were destroyed at a Russian naval airbase in Crimea recently.

 

The Russian RIA news agency on Wednesday cited sources that the commander of Moscow's Black Sea fleet, Igor Osipov, has been relieved of his post, replaced with Viktor Sokolov, the new chief. Marking one of the most prominent firings of a military official in this war that is merely a 'special military operation'. So special that Moscow has lost uncounted numbers of elite commanders and servicemen.

 

Members of the fleet's military council in the Crimean port of Sevastopol have already been introduced to their new chief. Since President Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine, the Black Sea Fleet has come under surprise attack -- all of which has signalled humiliations directed at Vladimir Putin in particular and Russia in general.

Its flagship, Moskva, a huge cruiser, the pride of the Black Sea Fleet, was struck in April, hit with Neptune missiles, becoming the largest warship to sink in combat in 40 years. Since then, Russia has extensively fortified Crimea, which has become the main supply route for Russian forces in southern Ukraine. And it is where Kyiv's plans to mount a counteroffensive in weeks to come is to take place.

The increasingly apparent capability of Ukraine's special forces to strike deeper into Russian-occupied territory is now undeniable. With some form of weapon or through sabotage, Russia has been given fair notice. A statement issued by Ukrainian military intelligence noted that following the recent explosions in Crimea, Russian forces had expeditiously moved some planes and helicopters deeper into the peninsula, and to airfields as well within Russia. 

 

Ukrainians were urged by by their president to give Russian military bases a wide, clear berth, along with steering clear of ammunition stores, warning that ongoing explosions might be detrimental to their health and longevity. Following which, Russia's FSB security service claimed to have detained six members of an "Islamist terrorist cell" in Crimea.

The leadership change comes as Russia has encountered fierce resistance from Ukrainian forces, including a series of explosions in Russian-controlled Crimea

Sipa USA via AP

 

Ukrainian Special Forces Impediing Russian Aspirations

"It's therefore possible that this explosion has severed one of Russia's main routes into Crimea and southern Ukraine."

"It will be particularly difficult to fix it if there is scattered unexploded ordnance over a wide area."

Chris Owen, military expert

"[Tuesday's strike at the Russian military base was] demilitarization in action."

"A reminder: Crimea as a normal country [in Ukraine] is about the Black Sea, mountains, recreation and tourism, but Crimea occupied by Russians is about warehouses, explosions and high risk of death for invaders and thieves."

Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

"The armed forces will continue until the complete deoccupation of Ukrainian territories ... Crimea is Ukraine."

Andriy Yermak, chief of staff to President Zelenskyy

Smoke rises over the site of explosion at an ammunition storage of Russian army near the village of Mayskoye, Crimea, Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2022. Explosions and fires ripped through an ammunition depot in Russian-occupied Crimea on Tuesday in the second suspected Ukrainian attack on the peninsula in just over a week, forcing the evacuation of more than 3,000 people. (AP Photo)

 

Ukrainian special forces were at it again, reported to have been responsible for a series of mysterious explosions taking place in occupied Crimea, behind Russian lines. Just as Russian soldiers were assigned to enter besieged Kyiv and wreak havoc there in the first weeks of the Russian invasion before the level of resistance they encountered that resulted in massive loss of Russian servicemen to Ukrainian military push-back, along with destroyed Russian war munitions; except that the Ukrainian special forces are wreaking disastrous effects on Russian interests in Crimea where Russia failed in its efforts to occupy Kyiv, capture the government and demoralize its citizens.

An open-air ammunition dump and an electrical substation in the occupied peninsula's north were blasted on Tuesday, the work of an elite Ukrainian military unit. Verified by a Ukrainian official who spoke on condition he not be identified. On social media video footage showed a huge fireball at the ammunition depot. Later in the day plumes of thick, black smoke billowed from a Russian military airbase in central Crimea.

The Russian Tass news agency quoted the FSB security agency that Ukrainian operatives blew up six high-voltage transmission towers in Russia's Kursk region, close to Ukraine. Doubtless this displeases the Kremlin mightily; Russia's strikes within Ukraine, indiscriminately targeting both military sites and civilian areas in towns, villages and cities is viewed as legitimate, whereas Ukrainian forces managing to strike across the border into Russian territory is outrageous.

The blasts are described as a "massive blow to Russian logistics" by Western analysts with some sites linked to a railway Moscow uses to resupply its troops in southern Ukraine. The dynamic of the conflict has been changed, bit by bit, as Ukraine forces push Russian counterparts on their back foot in territory occupied by Russia which they considered safe enough from Ukrainian push-back to encourage "patriotic" tourism.

 

Saboteurs were also blamed for damage to a rail route in the Dzhankoi area  Reuters

 

The Kremlin earlier in the month moved its ammunition dumps deeper into Crimea following a U.S.produced Himars rocket system used by Ukraine to destroy a 40-carriage train carrying troops and weaponry in the Kherson region in Ukraine's south. Russia likely considered the targeted depot safe from the range of the 80-kilometre Himars system. Leaving the Ukraine special forces to rely on alternate means of delivering explosives, possibly by drone.

Close to ten km of railway line and two stations nearby were damaged in the wake of the explosion, leaving the only direct railway line from Russia to Crimea through Azovske. Lacking key railway connections, Russian forces now face a four-hour road trip from their base in Maiske to Kherson which has become a key target for the anticipted Ukrainian counteroffensive. A week earlier the Russian Saki airbase was hit by a series of blasts destroyig up to a dozen waplanes.

 

"It's a continuation of Ukraine's ongoing strategy to target Russian logistics centres."

"It's also clear there's a psychological element as well -- they're hitting the Russians in areas they previously thought were safe."

James Rushton, military analyst

Is The Russian Military Limping Toward Withdrawal From Ukraine?

"It’s bad news for Russia regardless of who struck and how they did it. It expands a dangerous front in the war,"

"The fact that Ukraine can and will destroy key targets in Crimea will make it more difficult for Russia to use the peninsula to support its occupation forces in southern Ukraine."

"This could make a significant difference in Ukraine’s efforts to retake Kherson if Ukraine can wreak logistical havoc for Russia in Crimea."

Robert Person, professor of international relations, U.S. Military Academy, West Point

 

"Two of the large explosions happened simultaneously, to the second."

"While this is not impossible to achieve with a missile strike, it is easier to achieve with explosive charges placed by a special operation force on the ground."

Oliver Alexander, Danish military analyst

"Ukrainian officials are playing up the evident Russian confusion surrounding the attack to obfuscate Ukraine's longer-range capabilities."

Institute for the Study of War

"Russians could consider moving their aircraft to the southern parts of the [Crimean] peninsula, which would increase fuel consumption for their aircraft operating near front lines."

Rochan Consulting military analysts

"This places the Russians in a real quandary,"

"The Ukrainians clearly can now hold large parts of Crimea at risk. And not just airbases. The Black Sea Fleet, its fuel, munitions, repair yards and infrastructure are now vulnerable,"

Mick Ryan, retired major general, Australian Army; fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies

A satellite image of the Saky Air Base shows destroyed fighter jets after the attack. It’s unclear exactly who and what caused the explosions. What is clear: Russian positions on the Black Sea peninsula are now vulnerable.

 

Russia marched into Ukraine with the expectation its neighbour would fold to the larger, better-equipped military in a matter of weeks leaving the Russian military to mop up operations, place Ukraine's government on trial for its 'fascist' tendencies representing a threat to Russian stability and security, install another puppet government, take full possession of the Donbas, and return its military to home bases while the Kremlin celebrated mission accomplished.

Ukraine special forces mining Russian ships in harbour? Ukrainian servicemen lobbing grenades at Russian tanks leaving them littering the countryside? Ukrainian sharpshooters and missiles hitting Russian commanders and reducing the Russian military's size of serviceable personnel? Ukrainian defences demoralizing Russian servicemen to the point of retreat? Ukraine special forces precision-bombing Russian air bases in Crimea? Seems so.

 

The strikes on Mykolaiv have been occurring largely in residential neighbourhoods and with a blitz-like randomness   "It destroys our sleep, and our dreams. It weakens people's nervous systems and causes fear and panic. It's hard. I get woken every night not just by the bombs, but by phone calls. When I sleep, I dream about the war and the destruction," said Oleksandr Demianov, a trauma doctor who has treated many of the city's casualties.

 

The Ukrainian military failed to absorb the Russian message of invincibility against a ragtag, ill-equipped adversary, cringing in demoralized defeat. What's an honourable, courageous righteous Kremlin to do in advancing orders to proceed and the goal of neutralizing Ukraine as a sovereign country to be achieved? Thoughts of Moscow calling for mercy from Kyiv might from this point forward wink in and out of Vladimir Putin's consciousness.

Russia's largest loss to date of aircraft in one day resulting from explosions in occupied Crimea shown to be the reality, not Moscow's lame assurance that it had lost no planes in the mysterious explosions that rocked its air base in Novofedorivka on Tuesday. Ten planes, it appears, were destroyed in a series of blasts at the airfield station. Analysts assayed the full extent of damage to Russia's air force still yet to be revealed though some suggest as many as 20 jets might have been lost.

The War Zone website wrote: "The satellite imagery presents clear indications that the full tally is higher", than initially estimated. The attack would also have the effect of casting doubt among the Russian military in its capacity to withstand an anticipated counteroffensive launched by Ukraine in the country's south.

At Oryx, a website tracking destroyed equipment, independent analysts assess that four SU-30SM fighter jets were destroyed, along with five SU-24M bombers and reconnaissance aircraft. Leaving Russia with a $780 million loss in aircraft destroyed. Since its invasion of Ukraine, Oryx estimates a loss to Russia of 47 aircraft; a fifth of the losses having occurred at Novofedorivka. 

Two buildings at the airfield where ammunition for the jets was believed stored wiped out in the blasts, witnessed through satellite imagery. Russia's defence ministry explanation? the explosions at the airfield caused by a "violation of fire safety requirements" close by the munitions, leaving the jets undamaged. They wish. Experts are still mulling over how Ukrainian forces might have carried out their assault 200 kilometres behind enemy lines.

Possibilities, according to analysis: possible missile strikes from an unmanned drone; alternately, explosives charges planted at the airfield. However the strikes were accomplished, the result is that questions are now raised whether Russia has the ability to defend Crimea and its air attack and defence capabilities. If the strike was carried out with a missile, several units of S-400 surface-to-air rocket systems were unactivated.

Ukrainian officials pointed out that the Saki airfield represented a vital staging post of aerial attacks on Kyiv's positions in the towns of Kherson and Mykolaiv in the south. A military airbase in Belarus near the Ukrainian border thought to be used by Russia as a launch pad for the invasion was reported tohave been targeted as well on Thursday. Not a Ukrainian attack, the Belarusian defence ministry stated dismissively.

Near Moscow a Russian military base where conscripts were thought to be staged saw yet another fire. Riusia doubled its airstrikes on Ukrainian targets following the Crimea attack, targeting civilians as usual, according to Ukrainian Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov.

Kyiv suggests helpfully that "Unless they want an unpleasantly hot summer break, we advise our valued Russian guests not to visit Ukrainian Crimea". Followed by a social media video with Bananarama's Cruel Summer soundtrack, discouraging Russians from holidaying in occupied Crimea.

"The epidemic of technical accidents at military airfields in Crimea and Belarus should be considered by the Russian military as a warning: forget about Ukraine, take off your uniforms and leave."

Mikhailo Podolyak, adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy