Russia's Fraught Position in Crimea

"[The fleet has been in an] extremely defensive posture [in the waters off Crimea, barely venturing beyond the coast]."

"[The Russian fleet’s] limited effectiveness undermines Russia’s overall invasion strategy."

"This means Ukraine can divert resources to press Russian ground forces elsewhere."

British Defence Ministry

 

"I certainly agree with the Russian ministry for defense, which is predicting more incidents of this kind in the next two, three months."

Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak

 

"[The explosives could have a number of causes, including incompetence] But they all mean the same thing -- the destruction of the occupiers' logistics, their ammunition, military and other equipment, and command posts -- saves the lives of our people."

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy

A view showing the Black Sea Fleet's headquarters following a a reported combat drone attack in Sevastopol, Crimea, July 31, 2022.  Reuters

 

Although Ukraine has refrained from officially taking responsibility (credit) for the mysterious blasts that have hit behind Russian lines in occupied Crimea, the obvious capability of Ukraine to strike deeper into Russian-occupied territory with some type of weapon or through sabotage reflects a shift in the conflict. Warplanes were destroyed at a Russian naval airbase in Crimea recently.

 

The Russian RIA news agency on Wednesday cited sources that the commander of Moscow's Black Sea fleet, Igor Osipov, has been relieved of his post, replaced with Viktor Sokolov, the new chief. Marking one of the most prominent firings of a military official in this war that is merely a 'special military operation'. So special that Moscow has lost uncounted numbers of elite commanders and servicemen.

 

Members of the fleet's military council in the Crimean port of Sevastopol have already been introduced to their new chief. Since President Putin launched the invasion of Ukraine, the Black Sea Fleet has come under surprise attack -- all of which has signalled humiliations directed at Vladimir Putin in particular and Russia in general.

Its flagship, Moskva, a huge cruiser, the pride of the Black Sea Fleet, was struck in April, hit with Neptune missiles, becoming the largest warship to sink in combat in 40 years. Since then, Russia has extensively fortified Crimea, which has become the main supply route for Russian forces in southern Ukraine. And it is where Kyiv's plans to mount a counteroffensive in weeks to come is to take place.

The increasingly apparent capability of Ukraine's special forces to strike deeper into Russian-occupied territory is now undeniable. With some form of weapon or through sabotage, Russia has been given fair notice. A statement issued by Ukrainian military intelligence noted that following the recent explosions in Crimea, Russian forces had expeditiously moved some planes and helicopters deeper into the peninsula, and to airfields as well within Russia. 

 

Ukrainians were urged by by their president to give Russian military bases a wide, clear berth, along with steering clear of ammunition stores, warning that ongoing explosions might be detrimental to their health and longevity. Following which, Russia's FSB security service claimed to have detained six members of an "Islamist terrorist cell" in Crimea.

The leadership change comes as Russia has encountered fierce resistance from Ukrainian forces, including a series of explosions in Russian-controlled Crimea

Sipa USA via AP