Is The Russian Military Limping Toward Withdrawal From Ukraine?

"It’s bad news for Russia regardless of who struck and how they did it. It expands a dangerous front in the war,"

"The fact that Ukraine can and will destroy key targets in Crimea will make it more difficult for Russia to use the peninsula to support its occupation forces in southern Ukraine."

"This could make a significant difference in Ukraine’s efforts to retake Kherson if Ukraine can wreak logistical havoc for Russia in Crimea."

Robert Person, professor of international relations, U.S. Military Academy, West Point

 

"Two of the large explosions happened simultaneously, to the second."

"While this is not impossible to achieve with a missile strike, it is easier to achieve with explosive charges placed by a special operation force on the ground."

Oliver Alexander, Danish military analyst

"Ukrainian officials are playing up the evident Russian confusion surrounding the attack to obfuscate Ukraine's longer-range capabilities."

Institute for the Study of War

"Russians could consider moving their aircraft to the southern parts of the [Crimean] peninsula, which would increase fuel consumption for their aircraft operating near front lines."

Rochan Consulting military analysts

"This places the Russians in a real quandary,"

"The Ukrainians clearly can now hold large parts of Crimea at risk. And not just airbases. The Black Sea Fleet, its fuel, munitions, repair yards and infrastructure are now vulnerable,"

Mick Ryan, retired major general, Australian Army; fellow at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies

A satellite image of the Saky Air Base shows destroyed fighter jets after the attack. It’s unclear exactly who and what caused the explosions. What is clear: Russian positions on the Black Sea peninsula are now vulnerable.

 

Russia marched into Ukraine with the expectation its neighbour would fold to the larger, better-equipped military in a matter of weeks leaving the Russian military to mop up operations, place Ukraine's government on trial for its 'fascist' tendencies representing a threat to Russian stability and security, install another puppet government, take full possession of the Donbas, and return its military to home bases while the Kremlin celebrated mission accomplished.

Ukraine special forces mining Russian ships in harbour? Ukrainian servicemen lobbing grenades at Russian tanks leaving them littering the countryside? Ukrainian sharpshooters and missiles hitting Russian commanders and reducing the Russian military's size of serviceable personnel? Ukrainian defences demoralizing Russian servicemen to the point of retreat? Ukraine special forces precision-bombing Russian air bases in Crimea? Seems so.

 

The strikes on Mykolaiv have been occurring largely in residential neighbourhoods and with a blitz-like randomness   "It destroys our sleep, and our dreams. It weakens people's nervous systems and causes fear and panic. It's hard. I get woken every night not just by the bombs, but by phone calls. When I sleep, I dream about the war and the destruction," said Oleksandr Demianov, a trauma doctor who has treated many of the city's casualties.

 

The Ukrainian military failed to absorb the Russian message of invincibility against a ragtag, ill-equipped adversary, cringing in demoralized defeat. What's an honourable, courageous righteous Kremlin to do in advancing orders to proceed and the goal of neutralizing Ukraine as a sovereign country to be achieved? Thoughts of Moscow calling for mercy from Kyiv might from this point forward wink in and out of Vladimir Putin's consciousness.

Russia's largest loss to date of aircraft in one day resulting from explosions in occupied Crimea shown to be the reality, not Moscow's lame assurance that it had lost no planes in the mysterious explosions that rocked its air base in Novofedorivka on Tuesday. Ten planes, it appears, were destroyed in a series of blasts at the airfield station. Analysts assayed the full extent of damage to Russia's air force still yet to be revealed though some suggest as many as 20 jets might have been lost.

The War Zone website wrote: "The satellite imagery presents clear indications that the full tally is higher", than initially estimated. The attack would also have the effect of casting doubt among the Russian military in its capacity to withstand an anticipated counteroffensive launched by Ukraine in the country's south.

At Oryx, a website tracking destroyed equipment, independent analysts assess that four SU-30SM fighter jets were destroyed, along with five SU-24M bombers and reconnaissance aircraft. Leaving Russia with a $780 million loss in aircraft destroyed. Since its invasion of Ukraine, Oryx estimates a loss to Russia of 47 aircraft; a fifth of the losses having occurred at Novofedorivka. 

Two buildings at the airfield where ammunition for the jets was believed stored wiped out in the blasts, witnessed through satellite imagery. Russia's defence ministry explanation? the explosions at the airfield caused by a "violation of fire safety requirements" close by the munitions, leaving the jets undamaged. They wish. Experts are still mulling over how Ukrainian forces might have carried out their assault 200 kilometres behind enemy lines.

Possibilities, according to analysis: possible missile strikes from an unmanned drone; alternately, explosives charges planted at the airfield. However the strikes were accomplished, the result is that questions are now raised whether Russia has the ability to defend Crimea and its air attack and defence capabilities. If the strike was carried out with a missile, several units of S-400 surface-to-air rocket systems were unactivated.

Ukrainian officials pointed out that the Saki airfield represented a vital staging post of aerial attacks on Kyiv's positions in the towns of Kherson and Mykolaiv in the south. A military airbase in Belarus near the Ukrainian border thought to be used by Russia as a launch pad for the invasion was reported tohave been targeted as well on Thursday. Not a Ukrainian attack, the Belarusian defence ministry stated dismissively.

Near Moscow a Russian military base where conscripts were thought to be staged saw yet another fire. Riusia doubled its airstrikes on Ukrainian targets following the Crimea attack, targeting civilians as usual, according to Ukrainian Brigadier General Oleksiy Hromov.

Kyiv suggests helpfully that "Unless they want an unpleasantly hot summer break, we advise our valued Russian guests not to visit Ukrainian Crimea". Followed by a social media video with Bananarama's Cruel Summer soundtrack, discouraging Russians from holidaying in occupied Crimea.

"The epidemic of technical accidents at military airfields in Crimea and Belarus should be considered by the Russian military as a warning: forget about Ukraine, take off your uniforms and leave."

Mikhailo Podolyak, adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy