The U.S. Retreats from the Middle East in Favour of Navel-Gazing Introspection

"We're sitting still, and the Chinese, the Russians, Iran, North Korea, and several others, are moving to shore up their relations and threaten us in a lot of different places... It's an indication that the Saudis and others are [also] trying to hedge their bets with China and Russia, because they don't think the United States has the resolve and the fortitude necessary to do what they need to do to protect the world against Iran and its intentions."

"The Chinese have a strategy they've been following... We kind of wander around from day to day."

Former US National Security Advisor John R. Bolton

 

"[Saudi Arabia is signalling that] they will act to secure their own national interest as the region and the world around them changes."

"Mohammed bin Salman is thinking long term and assessing the world Saudi Arabia will be navigating into mid-century and in that world China likely looms larger than the U.S. in all manner of ways."

Kristian Ulrichsen, fellow for the Middle East, Baker Institute, Rice University

 

"Thanks to the lack of leadership and the vacuum that the Biden administration has created -- and appears continuing to create on the global stage, the new axis of Iran-China-Russia has been shaped with Beijing, Moscow and the ruling mullahs -- rather than the brutalized people of Iran."

"The Axis is seizing leadership of the new world order, or -- if the world's communists manage to defeat the world's democrats, as they seem tenaciously determined to do -- it will be, more accurately, the new world disorder."

Dr. Majid Rafizadeh, Harvard-educated scholar, political scientist, board member of Harvard International Review, president of the International American Council on the Middle East

If the US further pulls out of Asia, the Indo-Pacific, the Middle East, the vacuum created will be filled by the new axis of China-Russia-Iran. Pictured: Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Iran's then President Hassan Rouhani in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan. (Photo by Vyacheslav Oseledko/AFP via Getty Images)

 A spurned lover looks elsewhere for validation and comfort. And that is what has happened between the United States and Saudi Arabia. A new world order appears to be emerging; the United States steadily withdrawing from its dominant position in the Middle East and elsewhere, and the contestants for the status of new world powers, moving in to fill the vacuum. The withdrawal under three American presidents; Obama, Trump and Biden has had a disequilibrating effect; the political/economic colossus that is China seeks to mediate the chaos. With a view needless to say of consolidating its ambitions.

 

Washington seems well prepared now to fully vacate its traditional position of main mediator in the Middle East, where the 21st century saw the United States as the essential puppeteer of the region long after France and Britain abandoned their colonialist clutch. It was, of course, oil that brought the U.S. to the Middle East, and clinched its patron relationship with Saudi Arabia, protecting its energy interests. Times change and so does energy extraction technology.

 

Where in the first decade of the 21st century political occupation of the region was critical in Washington's heavy dependency on Saudi oil, Riyadh's part of the deal was a fairly steady supply of American weaponry and above all, a reliable partner for security. Relations between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran have traditionally been adversarial; although a minority Shi'ite sect, as opposed to the majority Sunni that characterized most Arab countries, Aryan Persia cast a jealous eye on the Kingdom's custodianship of Mecca and Medina.

 

The Iranian Republic imagines itself recast to its former glory as the Islamic powerhouse of the Middle East, eyeing Saudi Arabia's leadership in an open clash of sectarian and tribal animosity. The final break that took place seven years ago led to the final strain in their diplomatic relationship. When Iran planned and supported a Houthi-proxy rebellion in Yemen, forcing the legitimate government out of Sana'a and splitting the country in a violent civil war Saudi Arabia entered with a Sunni coalition to oppose the Houthi presence. 

Now that the U.S. no longer depends on Saudi oil since its own shale and horizontal drilling oil extraction revolution has made it independently oil-sufficient, the ties that bound frayed. Nor did it help that President Joe Biden was hostile to the Saudi heir-apparent and now de-facto ruler of Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, accusing him of ordering the murder of the Saudi dissident writer Jamal Khashoggi, at the Saudi diplomatic mission in Turkey.

Describing MbS as "a pariah" once the CIA reached the conclusion that the crown price had ordered the 2018 assassination, the message was clear; Washington could no longer be relied upon to remain the staunch friend it once had been, just as before the Biden tenure, then-President Obama abandoned U.S. support for then-Egyptian president Hosni Mubarak, and gave full support to his replacement by a ''democratically elected' Mohamed Morsi, leader of the now-outlawed Muslim Brotherhood.

More latterly, top diplomats from Iran and Saudi Arabia, the two signal regional archrivals, arrived to Beijing in confirmation of the resumption of relations, a historic meeting and agreement that China brokered as new peacemaker and global authority, moving to a position of influence in the Middle East in Washington's absence. Prince Faisal bin Farhan, Saudi foreign minister, was photographed smiling beside his Chinese and Iranian counterparts Qin Gang and Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.

So much for the plans of the still-sole superpower whose intention it was to pivot away from the Middle East in favour of confronting China over its military and economic influence in the Asia-Pacific. The U.S. was focused on extracting itself from endless wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Saudi leadership, having had one too many lectures on human rights and with the realization that a once reliable security partner had withdrawn, looked elsewhere for reassurance in protection of their interests.

 

In March of 2023 Chinese President Xi Jinping introduced a new slogan to outline what he envisaged as the new foreign policy mantra of"Xiplomacy". China, Mr. Xi explained, should be 'determined, proactive and dare to fight', once he was sworn in for his third administrative term. In February, China revealed it had an agreement for Iran and Saudi Arabia to restore their diplomatic relations; a diplomatic coup that surprised Washington.

 

April brought an announcement that Saudi Arabia was partnering with The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a China-led security bloc. These deepening ties with Beijing represent a shifting market for oil exports where China has become the main importer of Saudi oil, buying 1.75 million barrels per day, in 2022. This international game of musical chairs is now in full play. From full-throttle world warden, the United States has withdrawn to navel-gazing introspection. 

 

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud; Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang. West Asia News Agency/Handout via Reuters

"Saudi Arabia has no interest in any war in the Gulf region. The failure of the U.S. maximum pressure policy on Iran, Tehran’s policy of increasing uranium enrichment, and Israel’s threats to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities have precariously placed the region on the verge of war. Saudi Arabia does not want to be part of this escalation that will undermine its security and delay its social and economic transformation. An opening with Iran sends a clear message to the Iranians, the United States, and Israel that the Kingdom is not willing to risk direct war with its neighbor."

"...When it comes to Iran, Saudi Arabia’s security priorities are concerned with the Islamic Republic’s support for Shiite groups, mainly in Yemen and Iraq, in addition to its advanced conventional missile program. Those two priorities are not part of the talks between the United States and their European partners with Iran. While Saudi Arabia is fully aware that Iran won’t put restrictions on its missile program, it believes that normalization of relations is an alternative path that might contribute to the region’s stability, especially in Iraq and Yemen."

Abdolrasool Divsallar and Hesham Alghannam, The Cairo Review of Global Affairs