Russia's Near-Abroad

"What we see in Ukraine, and the way Russia is waging war -- means that this strategy [NATO's batlegroup 'tripwires' meant to forestall Russia's territorial ambitions] needs to be adjusted."

"We do have to reassess the risk posture and how much we need to stand together against potential Russian incursions and aggression."

"Where the Russian military goes, not only is civilian infrastructure destroyed, but civilians are shot, maimed, murdered, raped, tortured, deported, killed."

"That means we need to have a more robust position in the Baltics to prevent an attack from occurring in the first place."

Latvian Prime Minister Arturs Krisjanis Karins

"Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay."

"We hope that the national steps still needed to make this decision will be taken rapidly within the next few days."

Finnish President Sauli Niinisto/Prime Minister Sanna Marin

"Definitely [Finland's accession to NATO poses a direct threat to Russia]."

"Definitely NATO expansion does not make our continent more stable and secure."

This cannot fail to arouse our regret, and is a reason for corresponding symmetrical responses on our side."

Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman 

A first responder works at the site of a missile strike, amid Russia's invasion of Ukraine, in Odesa, Ukraine in this handout

 

That 'symmetrical responses' phrase was attention-grabbing. Analysts might point out that past situations spoke to potential counter-measures the Kremlin could consider in the event that its neighbours decided to move closer to the West and to join NATO, a prospect that makes the Russian Federation very nervous indeed. And one that reputedly spurred Vladimir Putin to scorn Ukraine as a puppet of the West controlled by fascists which obligated Russia to invade and bring war to Ukraine, a stunning course of punishment.

Responses on a wider basis -- setting aside the prospect of a Russian invasion of all its neighbours simultaneously rather than the feared and anticipated sequentially at a time when the Russian military finds itself bogged down in one country -- could conceivably consist alternately of Russia placing nuclear-armed missiles on the Baltic Seacoast. When asked whether Finland might, by joining NATO, provoke Russia, its President said: "My response would be that you caused this. Look at the mirror".

The expectation of other NATO allies is that Finland, along with Sweden which has also stated its intention to apply for NATO membership, would be quickly granted membership. That would result in an increased troop presence to defend the Nordic region during the period of ratification that would take approximately a year. The irony is that Ukraine which has long sought NATO membership and has been put off for fear of aggravating Russia, was targeted with a "special military operation" to prevent just such NATO expansion.

 

A Ukrainian serviceman patrols an area, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in an undisclosed location in Kharkiv Region   Reuters

 

As the two largest EU countries to  join NATO to the present, Finland's 1,300-km border with Russia would double the frontier between NATO and Russia. NATO guards would be placed with this new alliance, a mere few hours' drive from the northern outskirts of St.Petersburg. As the world's sole superpower European nations feeling the stress and strain of a silent, looming threat from Russia, seek the protection of the world's largest and best-armed military, that of the United States.

Even while Moscow regards these events as a direct threat to its own influence and security in the region, it was that pre-emptive move to demonstrate that it would not tolerate NATO's creeping presence in the Russian near-abroad that motivated the Ukrainian invasion; the extended reach of which has been to shock, unnerve and convince Russia's neighbours that they're in dire need of the backing of an international coalition to give Russia pause over extending its 'special military operations' elsewhere.

And all will have taken note that Ukraine, though not a NATO member-nation, has been amply supported  with the supply of advanced technological weaponry which, together with the Ukraine military's fighting spirit in countering the Russian presence with a strong defense, has now transformed that hugely successful defense into an admirable counter-offensive, pushing Russian troops back towrd their own border, and even threatening Russian towns with the same treatment Russia meted out to Ukrainian towns.

Ukrainian service members fire with a self-propelled howitzer 2S1 Gvozdika, as Russia's attack on Ukraine continues, in unknown location in Kharkiv region, Ukraine May 7, 2022. REUTERS/Serhii Nuzhnenko