Current Conflict -- Future Clashes

"The type of scenario we have to plan for is extremely robust. It means the Israeli operational response has to be forceful, swift and decisive."
Israeli military official [anonymous]

"Iran is handing out torches to the pyromaniacs."
"I suggest that everyone keeps in mind that underneath this quiet, a storm is brewing."
Lt.Gen. Benny Gantz, Israeli military chief

Ariel Schalit February 26, 2014 5:48 AM

Israel believes it has good reason to understand that Hezbollah's involvement in Syria is twofold. Much in evidence is the military aspect of the Iranian-supported Hezbollah military machine tasked with giving practical military support to the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in putting down the insurrection by majority Sunni Syrian rebels contesting the regime for legitimacy in governing a country which has historically pitted the minority Shia Alawite regime against its majority Sunni population.

Under the radar is the far less conspicuous covert activity related to ferrying advanced weaponry out of wartorn Syria and into Lebanon, for use by Hezbollah in its future plans to confront Israel in all-out attacks in yet more attempts to destroy the Jewish state. There have been a number of night-time aerial attacks launched by the IDF against convoys carrying advanced rocketry and other missiles to Hezbollah possession.

The one that took place this week struck inside Lebanon for the first time in eight years. This strike had the intended purpose of preventing the Islamists from taking possession of sophisticated missiles. The Syria-Hezbollah axis orchestrated from Tehran presents a serious concern to Israel for what it represents; arming a foe whose purpose is to destroy the existence of Israel, to enable Hezbollah to amass a deadly arsenal that might closely match that of the IDF's itself.

Moreover, Hezbollah's front-line involvement with Syrian troops in halting the advance of the Syrian opposition has been both supported and seriously complicated to the point of being detrimental in the battle against the regime by the flood of Islamist militias and al-Qaeda-affiliated groups, has given Hezbollah the advantage of real-time experience on the battlefield.

While Syrian state media reported that army troops killed 75 rebels, among them al-Qaeda fighters near Damascus on Wednesday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights revealed the ambush was a Hezbollah venture.

Israel has taken no sides in the Syrian war. With each side concentrating on conflict to the bitter end with the other, they still mutter threats against Israel, but their primary focus remains on dealing with one another, to the death when at all possible. And they've been doing a fairly good job of it, apart from the Islamist Sunni groups also carving up territory in Syria in competition with one another, wile assassinating one another's commanders on occasion for good measure.

What concerns Israeli battlefield watchers is that irrespective of the successful Israeli airstrikes on suspected arms shipments, Hezbollah has still been successful in obtaining sophisticated weapons. Russian-produced anti-aircraft and antiship missiles included. Which makes it far more feasible to anticipate that any future conflicts between Israel and Hezbollah will become far more intense than heretofore.

While Hezbollah used about four thousand rockets and missiles to hit Israel in 2006, they were for the most part short-range, unguided projectiles. Now, Israel believes, Hezbollah has in its possession 100,000 rockets and missiles with longer ranges, guidance systems and larger warheads, capable of striking anywhere within Israel. And those weapons came courtesy of Syria and Iran. The targeted shipments Israel has destroyed included Russian-made anti-aircraft and surface-to-sea missiles along with Iranian advanced guided missiles.

And it's anyone's guess, and only Hezbollah's certain knowledge of the inventory they have still managed to receive and cache for that future day of conflict. The latest aerial IDF attack was on a known smuggling route along the Syrian-Lebanese border. The target was long-range surface-to-surface missiles from Syria heading to a Hezbollah depot in Lebanon's Bekaa region.