Getting Off the Bus

"If you look back at the last ten years, Erdogan and his party enjoyed enormous support from the West, especially as they took on the Turkish military establishment. This is now in doubt as they criticize Erdogan and he reacts strongly to their criticism."
Bulent Aliriza, director, Turkey Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington

He most certainly did 'take on' the Turkish military establishment. He effectively gutted it of its dedication to ensuring that Ataturkism did not survive the advent of Islamism sweeping the Muslim world. The country bridging the divide between East and West, the world of Islam and that of Christianity, the Levantine orient and Enlightenment Europe was politically secular following the fall of the Ottoman Empire.

Claiming that senior military officers conspired to remove him and his AK Islamist party from power he had them -- retired and acting -- arrested, tried and jailed, dampening any ardour that might remain in the military to restore secular governance to the country, in honour of one of their own, Kemal Ataturk. The reforms he brought to Turkey post-Ottoman Empire brought it into the Western sphere of influence, and gave equality to women.

Turkey, along with most of the rest of the Muslim world, has grown more comfortable with fundamentalist Islam. Sufficiently so that a majority of Turks voted into power the Islamist Justice and Development party, and its skilfully effective leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan who guided it over the past decade to greater prosperity and international respect. Turkey has been anxious to join the European Union; it is also the only Muslim country in NATO.

It doesn't appear likely, given the events of the last three weeks with protests and riots taking place in all the cities of Turkey, and riot police responding with force and brutality to bring those riots to an end on order from the Turkish government in Ankara, that Turkey, whose human rights record the EU always cited as a constraint to welcoming it into the European Union, is likely to be ushered into partnership now.

His slow and steady manipulation to change what is permissible in Turkish society has enraged his opponents. His bid to seek constitutional change to alter the powers of the presidency, allowing him to continue to govern the country as president, once his final term as prime minister is concluded, has certainly not endeared him to secular Turks, although the game of musical chairs worked very well for Russia's Vladimir Putin.

Mr. Erdogan is reputed to once have remarked that it is useful to think of democracy as a bus, to take one to a certain point, and when that destination has been reached, to simply disembark from that bus. Democracy allowed Recep Tayyip Erdogan to be elected, to win the trust of enough Turks to be re-elected with a majority, and to bring in Islamist 'reforms'. Perhaps he felt it was time to 'get off the bus', with his plans to resurrect the heritage of the Ottoman Empire.

Enough Turks took wild umbrage at his plans to turn a secular green space in the centre of Istanbul into a memorial to the Ottoman Empire and its military might, and to erect there a mosque as well, when what they would far prefer is the political status quo that Ataturk the hero left them with. At this juncture, Mr. Erdogan has made so many unwise choices, opted for so many confrontational initiatives rather than engage in conciliation, he has lost the trust and confidence of a huge portion of his electorate.

He has spoken of the demonstrators with utter contempt, naming them buffoons, criminals, terrorists and bums. He has ordered the crisis police to respond to orderly protests with force, with the use of tear gas, rubber bullets and water cannon. He has arrested the opposition leaders, lawyers and journalists, along with thousands of protesters. He has insisted that foreign enemies and social media are behind the crisis in his country.

"His personality doesn't seem to allow for admitting mistakes and turning back", commented Iter Turan, professor of political science at Istanbul Bilgi University.