No One Could Have Anticipated

"Today the scenario of Afghanistan is exactly like that of the year before the withdrawal of (sic) Soviet Union.  The Americans and their allies are tired of fighting. They can neither bear the casualties nor the expenses of this war any more.  They are left with no other option except withdrawal.
"The fact is that the government has failed. The authorities have lost their credibility completely. They have fallen victims to severe internal disputes and seem hopeless and worried. The foreign forces have failed and the situation is worsening by the day. We might face a dreadful situation after 2014 which no one could have anticipated."
Gulbuddin Hekmatyar

Right.  That's not the prognostication of a Western-based security pundit specializing in analyzing the situation in Afghanistan with all the aggravating factors, including the ill-doing of Pakistan and Iran in exacerbating a conflict that NATO and the United Nations accepted in deciding to uproot Taliban rule in Afghanistan when a U.S.-led force of NATO allies routed Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda from Afghanistan.  This is one of the warlords of inglorious war-atrocity fame listed by NATO as a global terrorist.

Sounds fairly accurate and reasonable in his assessment.  It could have been written by a Western analyst, as noted.  But it was written by the man himself in responding to a set of questions the British newspaper The Telegraph put to him through a specially arranged intervener. He foresees a brutal civil war with the withdrawal in 2014 of treasury-broke, military-casualty-fed-up, diplomacy-weary West.  The withdrawal is inevitable, the response equally inevitable.  The intransigence of the Taliban, determined to retake the rule of the country is insurmountable.

Their will to survive and to succeed by whatever means required out-matched the resolve and the planning and the sacrifices of the combined foreign forces whose occupation and guidance of Afghanistan was meant to be a humanitarian mission once the military campaign had succeeded.  But the military campaign succeeded only briefly.  The Taliban proved resilient and patient. Tradition, history, heritage and religion proved superior in force of nature and the fortunes of inheritance to the conscientious conceit of invaders.

Although the truth of the failure of intervention is clear enough from all reports, the persistence of the United States, of Britain, of Canada and others aligned with NATO and the UN's International Security Assistance Force in declaring the mission a success that will be finally realized when the Afghan national police and the military are up to full strength in numbers and training, seems more wishful thinking than a reflection of reality on the ground.  The government is weak and corrupt.  The military seems to be lacking dedication and will; the police are thoroughly inept and corrupt.

And the Taliban are resistant to pressures brought from abroad.  They have contempt for the government and they exercise their own resources in sending their unmistakable messages of denying any accommodation in working for a peaceful settlement that would see them sharing governance of the country.  They have infiltrated everywhere, from remote villages to military recruits, government agencies to civil society incapable of resisting their numbers and their advance. They represent the majority ethnic tribal group, the Pashtun.

Gulbuddin Hekmatyar appears by contrast, an utterly reasonable human being, no longer agitating for violence and bloodshed.  His group, Hezb-e-Islam, he claims, "considers education is as necessary for girls as it is for boys -- we don't discriminate in this regard.  The only thing that we are against is boys and girls being taught together. We think that is harmful from any perspective. 
"We are against the blowing up of schools and other institutions not only in Afghanistan and Pakistan, but elsewhere in the world."

Most revealingly astonishing of all, this terrorist-turned-aspiring-civil-leader speaks of a "peaceful transition of government", through a "free and fair" election.  That the winner of a majority of the votes should "be accepted by all".  And that the country will see its way forward if these conditions prevail: "complete withdrawal of all foreign forces and elections in which all parties are equally represented."

Either this man has cleverly adapted himself to the language of those whom he views as foreign occupiers seeking to manipulate the future of his country and whom he plans to convince that his own values have been transformed to reflect their own, in anticipation of their final removal at which time he will resume his Islamist hardline stance or he has undergone a conversion on his road to Kabul.