How Likely Is That?

He was in the forefront of the fray, defending the Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad from the majority-Sunni protests.  Yet he was himself not an Alawite, reflective of the ruling Baath party of President al-Assad, but a Sunni.  A Sunni, however, of the regime, and from a family long associated with the ruling Alawites. 

His father was a close confidant of Hafez al-Assad, both attended military college together, and Mustafa Tlas was Syria's top general. Not any longer. 

Mustafa Tlas purportedly left Syria early on as the current revolt gained steam, ostensibly for medical treatment abroad in France.  Where his son, Republican Guard Brigadier Manaf Tlas and his elegant wife were often to be seen themselves previous to the revolt now taking place, spending weekends in Paris.  Visiting with his sister, widow of a billionaire Saudi arms dealer, and a prominent socialite.

His brother Firas, a wealthy businessman, is in Dubai.  The family, once integral to the al-Assad regime, where at one time Mustafa Tlas helped groom Bashar al-Assad to the presidency on the death of his father, has now distanced itself from their country and the regime they served so well. 

They were involved with the Central Committee of Syria's Baath party; a Sunni family of great influence in an Alawite regime.

That has all now dissolved in the great sectarian divide between Shia and Sunni.  Ironically the family's Sunni-majority home town was among the first to rise in protest against the continued rule of the Bashar family.  Despite the patronage of the Tlas family and the inclusion of many of the town of Rastan's residents in the regime's military, they took up arms against the government of Bashar al-Assad.

"Manaf does not give the impression that he is a thug", explained a Western diplomat who served in Damascus.  "But he mattered in the military.  His defection is big news because it shows that the inner circle is disintegrating."  That's one take.  Others considering themselves knowledgeable of the situation beg to differ.

"If his defection is confirmed I do not think it will have any impact.  The Tlas family has distanced itself for some time from what is happening.  It will not change anything in the balance of power inside the country.  They do not have any influence on the ground.  They have made promises that they did not deliver."

There is one Sunni member of the regime whose defection would matter, a great deal, on the other hand. Asma al-Assad's rejection of what her husband has wrought for Syria would be another matter altogether.  After all, her father's home town of Homs has been in the vanguard of the protest movement.  Homs has suffered disproportionately at the hands of Bashar's brother Maher.

Asma al-Assad, the Sunni woman whose heritage as a Syrian has been impacted by the initiating actions of her hometown appears to have had few second thoughts about her allegiance to her husband over those of her family's roots.  Little worry, it seems, that she will suddenly grow a conscience.