Friends of Syria

Friends of Syria, a 14-member international group, definitely feels no friendliness toward the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad who has revealed himself in the past year to be extremely unfriendly to those among his subjects who object to his continued rule.  His is basically a Shiite-offshoot-led tyranny over a majority-population Sunni country.  It might be thought that in the current climate of social unrest in the Middle East, the time is ripe for certain changes to develop.

However, President al-Assad strenuously disagrees with that assessment.  Tribal and religious animosities are common enough in the Middle East, and they are responsible for horrendously bloody events when one rises against the other in sectarian hatred.  Which explains in good measure why most Middle East countries are ruled by dictators who maintain a firm hold on their populations to ensure their ruling longevity.

Egypt was ostensibly liberated from the iron fisted rule of a former general, and in his absence the military itself has taken control on a temporary basis that it seeks to mesh with an elected administration to somehow maintain the military power base.  Libya's dictator was deposed, and the Libyan National Council now faces the problem of how to become a national government representing the interests of all the tribes, all of which insist on their right to sovereign rule.

Bahrain, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Turkey all juggle the demands of disparate ethnic, tribal and sectarian groups who feel ill done by.  Syrians no less so; in fact more so.  The Syrians who protest that they are in support of democracy will wind up with a democracy modelled on the one that Hamas has instituted in Gaza, and that the Muslim Brotherhood plans for Egypt; bearing scant resemblance to Western democracy but satisfying the needs of fundamentalist autocrats.

Syria's dilemma is that of the entire Middle East.  It is an instance of maintaining the devil one knows or gambling with the potential of welcoming a far more troublesome demon to take the place of the previous one.  The United Nations Security Council minus China and Russia feels the time is ripe to risk the unknown demon to rescue Syria's protest movement from ongoing slaughter.

Ban Ki-Moon and Kofi Annan have requested of the Security Council authorization for an expanded mission of unarmed military observers in view of the fact that Mr. al-Assad has reverted to type against all fanciful hopes otherwise.  Turkey, beset by an incursion of Syrian refugees, smarting over Syrian troops' attack into their border area, flirts with its NATO membership and its charter provisions; one for all and all for one.

And the noble "Responsibility to protect" provision whereby United Nations members may seek to intervene when a nation's head abuses its people is beginning to tempt some Western nations who initially hesitated to re-visit a Libya-style intervention.  Perhaps French President Nicolas Sarkozy feels that by emphasizing his intent to bring NATO to act, he may enhance his chances in the upcoming French presidential election.

"The solution is the establishment of humanitarian corridors so that an opposition can exist in Syria", he claims.  The thin edge of the wedge was France and Britain agitating for NATO involvement in Libya with the express approval of the UN, to create an aerial protection for Libyan protest militias and bombing government troops and armoured tanks to favour the revolution's success.

There are those who warn that full escalation into civil war in Syria will ultimately ignite the whole of the Middle East.  There are those who warn that doing nothing in Syria and permitting events to play themselves out will ultimately ignite the entire Middle East in a similar all-inclusive conflagration.

Take your pick.